Pfizer didn't recommend anything (doing so would get them in trouble with the FDA) That comment was written by a couple MDs who have reviewed the data published in the referenced paper.

Unfortunately it probably won't get much traction with all the news stories being about the South African variant.

The tweet I got it from issued a correction in the thread.

I do think it's great news. Plus people probably wouldn't mind skipping the 2nd dose side effects which knocked me on my ass the last few days. But I doubt the US makes a change. We just aren't that nimble. Maybe other countries can though and it will help with global supply

This was discussed here when the data came out, but they said since we didn't do a study on one shot only there is no way to tell if the one shot protection lasts as long as they think the two shot protection will last.

PJYoung said:

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Weird Y axis selection and value range.

amercer said:

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Pfizer didn't recommend anything (doing so would get them in trouble with the FDA) That comment was written by a couple MDs who have reviewed the data published in the referenced paper.

Unfortunately it probably won't get much traction with all the news stories being about the South African variant.

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It will if I just don't show up for the second shot.

i thought one of the docs who posted here speculated that either the dosages for each of the two shots would be reduced or that it would get down a single shot. It was posted that this is fairly typical as the trials are usually done with higher dosages than needed and then they back off as more data comes in.

i'm paraphrasing, and i'm about as far from a doc as it gets, so the above is only as accurate as my memory.

dlp3719 said:

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PJYoung said:

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Weird Y axis selection and value range.

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surprised some haven't flipped the script on this to say more and more young people are getting COVID and schools need to stay closed.

They aren't opening anyway, so I don't think anymore argument needs to be made..

amercer said:

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Actually depending on where you are they are holding doses back for the 2nd shot, so people not showing up will probably slow things down even more.

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Yeah, seems about right. I'm 48 and spent 2020 training for a marathon instead of slamming Taco Bell, so they won't let me get stuck for another 15 months anyway.

Bonus is that your 1st shot will work against the SA variant

amercer said:

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Bonus is that your 1st shot will work against the SA variant

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All your variants is mine.

Would similar efficacy be reasonable following Moderna 1st dose?

ORAggieFan said:

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Single shot is 93% as effective as 2nd dose.

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McKinney Ag said:

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Would similar efficacy be reasonable following Moderna 1st dose?

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Yes

This is grrat news for those of us living in countries that will not have the same access to the vaccine as the USA. One shot instead of two could be a game changer.

Dad said:

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McKinney Ag said:

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Would similar efficacy be reasonable following Moderna 1st dose?

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Yes

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Depending on how you analyze the data.

First dose effectiveness can only be measured in the time between the first dose and the second dose, unless the trial also included a number only 1 dose subjects. Just looking at those between their first dose and second who got sick compared to those on placebo, Moderna was about 50% effective (half as many people with the real vaccine got sick compared to placebo). However, when you attempt to account for people who were already exposed prior to the first dose (or shortly after before the first dose became effective, the effectiveness goes way up. However, you are really only looking at a 2 week window there, so the numbers are really small and the error is big.

As for the question of how long it lasts, without a subgroup of the study that got a single dose, you don't have any data on that at all and no way to get it before you make single dose a policy. With the 2 dose regime, we have a group of test subjects that we can follow for months/years to see when you might need a booster and have that data at least a few months before everyone needs a booster. If you don't have a group of single dose test subjects, we would find out everyone needs a booster when everyone who got a single dose starts getting sick.

Anyone see some of the data out of Israel? 1st shot may be closer to 46% effective looking at data between day 14-20. I think if we look at data from say day 18-25, or 25-35, for individuals that receive only one shot, the efficaciousness would rise above the 46% mark, but there's not data to prove that.

The UK has some data that 1 shot may be pretty good.

amercer said:

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I do think it's great news. Plus people probably wouldn't mind skipping the 2nd dose side effects which knocked me on my ass the last few days. But I doubt the US makes a change. We just aren't that nimble. Maybe other countries can though and it will help with global supply

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I read today that for people who have already had covid-19, the second dose may not be of much use. On the other and, the article said that those who have had covid-19 before can have reactions to the first dose that are similar to the reactions that people who have not had it get from the second dose.