Are we getting herd immunity?

CDC estimated 90 million back on Nov 30th. That was three months ago and December and January were both peak months for cases, so likely more than 90 million now

I don't expect the CDC to update that number anytime soon...

The underreporting is also due to (i) lack of testing scale at first, and (ii) asymptomatic or non-diagnosed cases. I'd assume the driving force of (i) is immaterial now. So I'm not sure it's as simple as just multiplying December and January by 5.

I've been following https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/ and while I still think he is probably being too conservative, the at risk population continues to dwindle.

GAC06 said:

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CDC estimated 90 million back on Nov 30th. That was three months ago and December and January were both peak months for cases, so likely more than 90 million now

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On the other end, you'd have to go a little lower for actual immunity among those who have had covid, because you can't say that 100% of the 90(now 100 million or so) who have had this are immune. There will always be some outliers. Although it's probably less than 5% who can get a severe case from it out of the 90+ million who have had it.

Also, I follow Yuang Gu too. He still has it around 90 million. 87 only, plus a little overlap with natural and vaccinated immunity. Although on December 11th, he had it around 64 million. So very different than the CDC. Who really knows?

https://covid19-projections.com/path-to-herd-immunity/

Yeah no one knows exactly. Another way to look at it though is if it was 90 million back on Nov 30th, it was close to 4 times more infections than confirmed cases. If that many people were such mild or no symptoms, it's unlikely to matter as much whether their immunity has worn off. They're likely to have a mild case anyway.

It's literally the top headline on CNN right now. Talking about how virus variants are about to wipe us all out.

And it's causing fully vaccinated people to stay home and not see family.

I personally know a good amount of people that are doing this.

Bad news sells

I know 2 who are not...

That's great.

I'm hopeful more people are like this. I bet more are, I just don't know them.

His models have been pretty accurate so far too, more than most of the "experts"

HotardAg07 said:

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P.U.T.U said:

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USA population 331 million
60 million vaccinated
90 million infected
55 million under the age of 18 (minor cases if they even spread it)

As of 03/02 we are looking around 62% of the population has some kind of immunity, most diseases are 70% to reach herd immunity so we are really close. Only 8 states have a R0 greater than 1 and most are pretty close to one. By the numbers we are really close.

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There's overlap in the vaccinated and covid positive group. You can't just add the numbers together. Youyang Gu does account for that in his model.

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Agreed. You can't just add them together and get an exact number. But it's a good starting point. On the other end, there's also a portion of the population even over 18 that seem to be innately immune and/or very unlikely to get or spread it.

Yes, there's overlap in the vaccinated / cases count. But it likely cancels out a bit with these people. I would say at most, 10-20 million overlap right now. Which still means 120+ million combined, along with young children and asymptomatic. Giving you over half the population likely having some kind of immunity to this.

Also, the CDC tends to think more than 90 million.(suggesting 83 million as of December, and with the big spikes late December/January, that would have to be over 90 now)

Either way, the point is, when you start to add everything up, account for some variables here and there, it's nearing the numbers that give you a potential end in sight finally.

As hopeful as I am, I think CDC is prepping the way for a continuation of masking and social distancing based on the "variants".

Any talk of herd immunity or vaccine numbers will simply be waved away as variants are starting at "square one".

Hope I am wrong but this feels like ground hog day heading our way

KlinkerAg11 said:

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And it's causing fully vaccinated people to stay home and not see family.

I personally know a good amount of people that are doing this.

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Maybe some people don't like their family (or certain members) and are using the pandemic as cover. I know I am.

ea1060 said:

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PJYoung said:

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Yea but the Delta and Lambda variants are coming! Just watch, you better mask up and stay indoors! 2 more weeks!

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'California’s health system is not at risk of being overwhelmed by the delta variant.' https://t.co/cnDPRdMt8m

— SFGATE (@SFGate) July 7, 2021

Quote:

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This thing is disappearing more rapidly than I had hoped.

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Why were you hoping that it would last longer?

That's great news!

Marcus Aurelius said:

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Zero at our hospital now............

(knocks wood)

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Amazing.