Very interesting
Israel Data
4,777 Views |
36 Replies |
Last: 4 yr ago by Drip99
Source? Graph does not match Israel's published data. Posting such without ANY explanation or reference as to authenticity seems a bit suspect.
Ich spreche kein Deutsch, ha ha!
Perhaps I am not understanding the graph, but Israel sources are reporting that the Pfizer vaccine, while quite a bit less effective (only 64%) against total prevention of the Delta variant, is still 93% effective in preventing hospitalization and/or death.
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/ministry-of-health-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccine-drops-to-64-in-month/2021/07/06/
Perhaps I am not understanding the graph, but Israel sources are reporting that the Pfizer vaccine, while quite a bit less effective (only 64%) against total prevention of the Delta variant, is still 93% effective in preventing hospitalization and/or death.
https://www.jewishpress.com/news/breaking-news/ministry-of-health-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccine-drops-to-64-in-month/2021/07/06/
At this point, I think its safe to point out that this poster has a history of fraudulent graphs/studies/statistics.
I don't know the veracity of your statement concerning the OP but OldArmy71 found the actual information. You can see the article yourself.RockOn said:
At this point, I think its safe to point out that this poster has a history of fraudulent graphs/studies/statistics.
I read the article and I understood it the same way you do.
I used Google translate to skim the article and its point was that immunity gained after infection is much better than the vaccine.
I have no idea how accurate the data is, of course.
I have no idea how accurate the data is, of course.
Yes, he did. You are correct.
The article is written in German, and appears to be written by a blogger named Peter F. Mayer, but all that tells me very little.
But simply taking a graphic from off the Internet and posting it without any explanation, reference, or reason makes me question the intent of the post. The graph seems to show that hospitalizations among vaccinated people are significantly higher than for un-vaccinated which is contrary to reports coming out of Israel.
The article is written in German, and appears to be written by a blogger named Peter F. Mayer, but all that tells me very little.
But simply taking a graphic from off the Internet and posting it without any explanation, reference, or reason makes me question the intent of the post. The graph seems to show that hospitalizations among vaccinated people are significantly higher than for un-vaccinated which is contrary to reports coming out of Israel.
That graph is misleading since it shows total #s of people testing positive. Assuming that the data behind it is correct (it must be because it's on the internet, amirite?), it shows that the total no. of vaccinated and unvaccinated cases is about the same. The chart thus erroneously (and perhaps intentionally?) gives the impression that the vaccine offers no protection.
However, since ~85% of the Israeli population has been vaccinated, that means that only a tiny percentage of them are testing positive. The chart shows that ~250 vaccinated/day are testing positive. Doing some back of the envelope math, the total population of Israel is ~9,250,000. 85% of that = 7,862,500. So approximately .0032% of the vaccinated population is testing positive each day.
Conversely, approx. .02% of the unvaccinated population is testing positive each day, or a rate that's 567% higher than the vaccinated rate.
Caveat 1: I'm no mathematician or statistician, so my math is probably wrong.
Caveat 2: This is based solely off that chart. And as we've seen constantly with Covid, today's statistics can be meaningless tomorrow.
However, since ~85% of the Israeli population has been vaccinated, that means that only a tiny percentage of them are testing positive. The chart shows that ~250 vaccinated/day are testing positive. Doing some back of the envelope math, the total population of Israel is ~9,250,000. 85% of that = 7,862,500. So approximately .0032% of the vaccinated population is testing positive each day.
Conversely, approx. .02% of the unvaccinated population is testing positive each day, or a rate that's 567% higher than the vaccinated rate.
Caveat 1: I'm no mathematician or statistician, so my math is probably wrong.
Caveat 2: This is based solely off that chart. And as we've seen constantly with Covid, today's statistics can be meaningless tomorrow.
57% of Israel population is vaccinated.
Thanks. I got the 85% number from the article linked above, but I remembered it incorrectly. It stated:
So my back of the envelope calculations may be meaningless because the charts include data for the entire population, not just adults. But, what does stand is that one has to drill deeper into the data to truly understand it. A simple chart can be misleading.
Quote:
Some 85% of the adult population is vaccinated
So my back of the envelope calculations may be meaningless because the charts include data for the entire population, not just adults. But, what does stand is that one has to drill deeper into the data to truly understand it. A simple chart can be misleading.
plain_o_llama said:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/#graph-cases-daily
You obviously don't understand exponential growth, so I have updated it for you.
OldArmy71 said:
I used Google translate to skim the article and its point was that immunity gained after infection is much better than the vaccine.
I have no idea how accurate the data is, of course.
I have sent that out of Israel study and can buy that. That study though is known to have small sample and showing vastly lower success of the vaccine than all others with larger samples.
Quote:
Conversely, approx. .02% of the unvaccinated population is testing positive each day, or a rate that's 567% higher than the vaccinated rate.
Old Buffalo said:plain_o_llama said:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/israel/#graph-cases-daily
You obviously don't understand exponential growth, so I have updated it for you.
You joke, but it will very clearly go up very quickly for some time. The doubling rate is very fast right now so we are a long way from cases rolling over without a different variable (other than "herd" immunity) to change. Not saying it's a crisis or anything, but it's certainly something we should be concerned about and watching very closely. If the vaccine is only 60% effective against the delta variant (as Israel's data implies) then it is important that unvaccinated people get vaccinated still as it will help accelerate the end of the exponential growth phase. A hypothetical "herd immunity" for the delta variant will be much sooner rather than later.
Ahh, yes.Gordo14 said:
You joke, but it will very clearly go up very quickly for some time. The doubling rate is very fast right now so we are a long way from cases rolling over without a different variable (other than "herd" immunity) to change. Not saying it's a crisis or anything, but it's certainly something we should be concerned about and watching very closely. If the vaccine is only 60% effective against the delta variant (as Israel's data implies) then it is important that unvaccinated people get vaccinated still as it will help accelerate the end of the exponential growth phase. A hypothetical "herd immunity" for the delta variant will be much sooner rather than later.
The growth rate that is already starting to decline.
Went and looked at the Israeli government COVID site today and the data indicates the vaccine is no longer working.
Among those 20+ years old, 81% are vaccinated. Over the last two weeks, just over 4,700 people in that age range have tested positive for Covid. Of those positive, 85% are vaccinated. This says that being vaccinated is worse than unvaccinated for testing positive.
They also give vaccine data for those hospitalized with COVID. Over the same 2 weeks in the same 20+ year age group, about 200 people have been hospitalized. Of those, 75% are vaccinated. Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization calculates as 29%, but would be 0% if it moves to 81% of hospitalized are vaccinated.
Looking back thru the data, it looks like the vaccines started losing effect about 4 months after vaccination started as that is when the % of vaccinated hospital cases started rising.
Hearing that Israel is close to imposing 7 day quarantine on all travelers entering the country regardless of vaccine status.
Among those 20+ years old, 81% are vaccinated. Over the last two weeks, just over 4,700 people in that age range have tested positive for Covid. Of those positive, 85% are vaccinated. This says that being vaccinated is worse than unvaccinated for testing positive.
They also give vaccine data for those hospitalized with COVID. Over the same 2 weeks in the same 20+ year age group, about 200 people have been hospitalized. Of those, 75% are vaccinated. Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization calculates as 29%, but would be 0% if it moves to 81% of hospitalized are vaccinated.
Looking back thru the data, it looks like the vaccines started losing effect about 4 months after vaccination started as that is when the % of vaccinated hospital cases started rising.
Hearing that Israel is close to imposing 7 day quarantine on all travelers entering the country regardless of vaccine status.
Data for previous post:
Positive Tests and Vaccine Status:
https://data.gov.il/dataset/covid-19/resource/9b623a64-f7df-4d0c-9f57-09bd99a88880
Hospitalizations and Vaccine Status:
https://data.gov.il/dataset/covid-19/resource/8a51c65b-f95a-4fb8-bd97-65f47109f41f
Positive Tests and Vaccine Status:
https://data.gov.il/dataset/covid-19/resource/9b623a64-f7df-4d0c-9f57-09bd99a88880
Hospitalizations and Vaccine Status:
https://data.gov.il/dataset/covid-19/resource/8a51c65b-f95a-4fb8-bd97-65f47109f41f
ISRAEL: The Israel Health Ministry's data analysis has produced some new estimates about the effectiveness of Pfizer vaccines.
- In protecting against infection, Pfizer vaccines are 95% effective for the alpha variant but only 64% effective for the delta variant.
- In preventing symptomatic COVID-19 cases, Pfizer vaccines are 97% effective for the alpha variant but only 64% effective for the delta variant.
- In preventing hospitalization and serious disease, Pfizer vaccines are 97.5% effective for the alpha variant and still 93% effective for the delta variant.
This report is on data a month old. See my links above for the current data which shows 0% effective for infection and 30% for hospitalization. You can do the calculations yourself, it's very straightforward.
Am i reading this right....150 fully vaccinated people total have been hospitalized with covid in Israel over the last two weeks? 150 out of how many?andrago94 said:
Went and looked at the Israeli government COVID site today and the data indicates the vaccine is no longer working.
Among those 20+ years old, 81% are vaccinated. Over the last two weeks, just over 4,700 people in that age range have tested positive for Covid. Of those positive, 85% are vaccinated. This says that being vaccinated is worse than unvaccinated for testing positive.
They also give vaccine data for those hospitalized with COVID. Over the same 2 weeks in the same 20+ year age group, about 200 people have been hospitalized. Of those, 75% are vaccinated. Vaccine effectiveness against hospitalization calculates as 29%, but would be 0% if it moves to 81% of hospitalized are vaccinated.
Looking back thru the data, it looks like the vaccines started losing effect about 4 months after vaccination started as that is when the % of vaccinated hospital cases started rising.
Hearing that Israel is close to imposing 7 day quarantine on all travelers entering the country regardless of vaccine status.
Roughly 200 people over 20 years old admitted to hospital with COVID in last two weeks. 150 of them vaccinated or 75%. 81% of over 20 population vacccinated, so vaccines not effective at preventing hospital admission.
Hospital admission rates haven't been this high since late March.
But in late March only 15% of admissions were vaccinated. So back then vaccine was calculated as 95% effective against hospitalization. Effectiveness started dropping in mid-May based on the data.
How do you draw that conclusion from that data?Quote:
Roughly 200 people over 20 years old admitted to hospital with COVID in last two weeks. 150 of them vaccinated or 75%. 81% of over 20 population vacccinated, so vaccines not effective at preventing hospital admission.
Wouldn't you have to know how many of the vaccinated people were exposed to COVID?
200 people doesn't sound like a lot in a population of millions.
Let's put that data in perspective:
150 out of how many....4,5,6 million (total pop of isreal is 9 mill so i am spitballing here)? What do we know about the 150 people? The vaccine is not 100% effective but that does not sound like a lot of people to me. Are they 80 years old with many comorbidities? What the big picture look like number wise?andrago94 said:
Roughly 200 people over 20 years old admitted to hospital with COVID in last two weeks. 150 of them vaccinated or 75%. 81% of over 20 population vacccinated, so vaccines not effective at preventing hospital admission.
andrago, you're badly misinterpreting that data, I think.
Let's assume that Israel's adult population is 6,000,000. IIRC Israel's vaccination % for adults is 85%.
So that means that 5,100,000 adults have been vacinated.
Israel claims that the vaccine is 93% effective at preventing hospitalization, meaning that 7% of those vaccinated will still be hospitalized (at least I think that's what that means - someone feel free to correct me if I misunderstand the meaning).
So, 7% of 5,100,000 = 357,000. In other words, if the vaccine is working as Israel states, we would expect 357,000 vaccinated people to be hospitalized. Over a 1 year period that would be 6,865 vaccinated people every week.
I'm actually encouraged by Israel's data and, if I'm interpreting it correctly, it supports Israel's official statements.
Let's assume that Israel's adult population is 6,000,000. IIRC Israel's vaccination % for adults is 85%.
So that means that 5,100,000 adults have been vacinated.
Israel claims that the vaccine is 93% effective at preventing hospitalization, meaning that 7% of those vaccinated will still be hospitalized (at least I think that's what that means - someone feel free to correct me if I misunderstand the meaning).
So, 7% of 5,100,000 = 357,000. In other words, if the vaccine is working as Israel states, we would expect 357,000 vaccinated people to be hospitalized. Over a 1 year period that would be 6,865 vaccinated people every week.
I'm actually encouraged by Israel's data and, if I'm interpreting it correctly, it supports Israel's official statements.
He's right that this is how vaccine efficacy is counted. You observe who gets sick and who doesn't and then cross that with who's been vaccinated and who hasn't.
This is super observational though, so you have some issues - some people who get sick won't get tested (unlike hopefully in a clinical trial) and this will tend to bias against efficacy because the type of people who won't get tested are probably in the unvaccinated population. You could also significantly skew the bulk results by groups which could point toward behavioral differences rather than efficacy. The other thing is that when you're talking about handfuls of cases in some age cohorts out of millions, you could just be running into statistical noise, or a kind of apophenia. Hard to draw conclusions from the information presented.
This is super observational though, so you have some issues - some people who get sick won't get tested (unlike hopefully in a clinical trial) and this will tend to bias against efficacy because the type of people who won't get tested are probably in the unvaccinated population. You could also significantly skew the bulk results by groups which could point toward behavioral differences rather than efficacy. The other thing is that when you're talking about handfuls of cases in some age cohorts out of millions, you could just be running into statistical noise, or a kind of apophenia. Hard to draw conclusions from the information presented.
That's only if literally everyone is exposed, and exposed to the same amount, and at the same risk. Things get weird when you have some unknown exposure rate rolling around.
You'd need to look at the definition of case (some symptom plus PCR test) and definition of severe (usually O2 sat or something). And even then you could have qualitative differences in severe cases between vaccinated and unvaccinated people that wouldn't show up.
You'd need to look at the definition of case (some symptom plus PCR test) and definition of severe (usually O2 sat or something). And even then you could have qualitative differences in severe cases between vaccinated and unvaccinated people that wouldn't show up.
If you don't believe my numbers then you can't believe any numbers from the vaccine trials or any other news articles. All are using the exact same calculation method. You should not be feeling good about the numbers, if you look at the calculations over time, which I have done, it's clear that the Pfizer vaccine provides 4-6 months of protection. Every bit of data points to almost no one in Israel currently having vaccine protection.
What is the % of vaccinated people over 20 being hospitalized in Israel for covid?andrago94 said:
If you don't believe my numbers then you can't believe any numbers from the vaccine trials or any other news articles. All are using the exact same calculation method. You should not be feeling good about the numbers, if you look at the calculations over time, which I have done, it's clear that the Pfizer vaccine provides 4-6 months of protection. Every bit of data points to almost no one in Israel currently having vaccine protection
Featured Stories
See All
19:45
15h ago
4.0k
TexAgs is Hiring: Entry Level Software Developer
by Brandon Jones
Hot-shooting Aggies take on South Carolina as freezing temps arrive
by Olin Buchanan
Keys to the Game: Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
by Luke Evangelist
Scouting Report: Texas A&M vs. South Carolina
by Tom Schuberth