Playing the Odds: Texas A&M's keys to success against Providence
CHARLOTTE, N.C. — There are no absolutes.
There is no pivotal statistic to reach or key matchup to win that would all but guarantee Texas A&M a victory over Providence on Friday in the NCAA basketball tournament.
However, there are guidelines and/or indicators that would greatly enhance the Aggies' odds to survive and advance to the second round.
Here are five keys for the Aggies:
1. Get Robert Williams on track: The 6-10 sophomore has averaged just 5.3 points over the last four games. The Aggies need scoring from him, but that doesn’t necessarily mean getting him more shots.
Williams leads A&M with 62-percent field goal shooting (124 of 200). However, half of his field goals are dunks. Another 31 are layups and five are tip-ins. Therefore, he’s shooting just 25.4 percent (26 of 102) on shots that aren’t from point-blank range. The Aggies need to find a way to get Williams the basketball near the basket.
Williams says his slump will take care of itself if he gives maximum effort.
“I just play my hardest,” he said. “I feel like when I play my hardest, I’m at an elite level. Just play my hardest and make sure I give everything every play.”
2. Dominate the boards: Getting maximum effort from Williams will certainly help.
A&M is a superior rebounding team.
The Aggies average 41.3 boards per game compared to Providence’s 35.9.
Unfortunately, A&M has often dominated rebounding and still lost.
Indeed, A&M out-rebounded Alabama, 44-33, in its 71-70 loss in the Southeastern Conference Tournament.
A&M must rebound well on the offensive end for chances at second-chance baskets and to limit Providence’s transition game.
“They thrive in transition so we have to make sure the 1’s and 2’s (guards) get back and everyone else crashes the glass,” guard T.J. Starks said. “If we keep them out of transition and limit offensive rebounds for them, we have a good chance of winning.”
3. Limit turnovers: The Aggies average 13.6 turnovers per game, which would rank an alarming 242nd in the country.
The Aggies are 5-1 when committing 10 turnovers are less.
But A&M committed at least a dozen turnovers in eight of their nine losses to teams that are in the NCAA Tournament. The Aggies had 17 turnovers in losses to Florida, Tulane, Missouri and Alabama, 14 to Kansas, 13 in a loss to Arkansas and 12 in losses to Alabama and Kentucky.
A&M did beat West Virginia and Buffalo despite 18 turnovers and had 16 miscues in wins over Auburn and Arkansas.
But that would be living dangerously against Providence, which gets a lot of deflections because of its height and reach in the backcourt. Guards Alpha Diallo and Jalen Lindsey are 6-foot-7.
“A big key to the game is our ability to handle the ball and get shots at the basket and not turn the ball over and lead to transition baskets for them,” A&M coach Billy Kennedy said.
4. Admon Gilder’s defense: Gilder is second among Aggies in scoring with a 12.2 average, but he’s equally effective on the defensive end.
Case in point, he held Alabama’s John Petty to seven total points in the last two games. Petty scored 18 against A&M in the first of three meetings — a game in which Gilder did not play. Gilder also held Missouri’s high-scoring Kassius Robertson to seven points at Reed Arena.
A&M needs a strong defensive effort from Gilder against Diallo, who has scored 58 points in Providence’s last three games.
“He takes it as a challenge,” Kennedy said of Gilder. “He understands how important defense is. He buys into that role. He may guard Diallo, so it will be a little bit different defensive responsibility for him because these guys (Diallo and Lindsey) are 6-7 and power guys who like to post up. Most of the guys he’s guarded are perimeter guys.”
5, Make three-pointers: The Aggies converted six three-pointers or less in nine of their 12 losses. They’re 11-3 when converting at least seven treys.
Perimeter success prevents opponents from packing the paint, which creates space and opportunities for Tyler Davis inside.
D.J. Hogg, who leads A&M with 60 three-pointers, is especially key. A&M is 9-2 when he’s hit at least three treys and 8-0 when he converts four or more.
Hogg has scored at least 15 points in nine games. A&M won all of them.
