2 days 'til Aggie baseball: Looking at the 2019 schedule
Every day leading up to the start of the 2019 Aggie Baseball season, the TexAgs baseball coverage team will post a story diving into various storylines surrounding the A&M squad. Be on the lookout for daily articles from Gabe Bock, David Sandhop, Ryan Brauninger and Heath Clary between now and Opening Day, February 15th against Fordham. You can keep up with the full series here: 2019 Aggie Baseball Preview Series.
Over the past week, TexAgs has broken down every aspect of the 2019 Texas A&M baseball team. But what should Aggie fans expect to see from the 2019 schedule? On paper, what are some regular season goals for this team to reach traditional postseason milestones like hosting a regional or earning a coveted Top 8 national seed on the way to a potential trip to Omaha?
As expected, the 2019 season schedule will be daunting, but Aggie fans have come to expect that in the toughest baseball conference in the country. Eighteen SEC games will be played against a Top 25 opponent according to D1baseball.com’s preseason poll. Of those 18, half come against Top 10 competition, and the Aggies will battle preseason No. 1 Vanderbilt and No. 2 LSU for six games total and No. 10 Ole Miss for a three-game series. Other nationally ranked SEC opponents include Mississippi State (No. 14), Arkansas (No. 16), and Auburn (No. 22).
If that isn’t enough, Baylor is back in the national rankings and Texas A&M will face the No. 16 Bears and No. 19 TCU in the Minute Maid Classic in early March. Finally, the Aggies and No. 23 Longhorns will play their annual rivalry game in Austin this season.
Texas A&M is scheduled to play 21 preseason nationally ranked squads in 2019. How does that compare to last season? In 2018, Texas A&M faced just 16 opponents ranked in the preseason Top 25. Needless to say, 2019 will be more challenging, and the strength of schedule will not be an issue whatsoever.
The Aggies will play the same number of games against Top 10 opponents (9) as they did in 2018. That included a weekend series with preseason No. 1 Florida, No. 4 Arkansas, and No. 9 Ole Miss. So the SEC slate in 2019 is very similar to what Aggie baseball faced in 2018. It is and always will be a meat grinder in the SEC. The 2019 slate has one additional SEC series against a ranked team versus last year.
The Aggies will face three ranked non-conference opponents in 2019 compared to just one in 2018 (Texas). Texas A&M played three unranked teams in the Frisco tournament, and there is an upgrade in the competition, playing Baylor and TCU in the Minute Maid Classic.
In the final tally, the 2019 schedule is similar, but slightly more challenging than the previous campaign in 2018. So which series are key to the Aggies’ season? Well, the biggest opportunity comes in the opening weekend of SEC play when the Aggies welcome No. 1 Vanderbilt to Olsen Field. That wll be a great opportunity, in front of some big Olsen crowds, to knock off the best team in college baseball and collect some valuable accomplishments on the postseason resume. The Aggies have historically played well against Vandy, and the home crowd will play a factor as well.
Texas A&M will host three more SEC series against No. 14 Mississippi State, No. 16 Arkansas, and No. 22 Auburn. Those are a trio of series the Aggies must win to be a factor in the SEC race. Those nine games will also factor heavily into postseason seeding and possibly hosting a regional. In 2018, only four SEC teams secured a regional host. Texas A&M will be battling the Razorbacks, Bulldogs, and Tigers for a coveted regional host spot. Losing a home series here will be devastating to the Aggies’ chances of hosting in the first round of the NCAA regionals. On a brighter note, all four SEC regional hosts were also Top 8 national seeds with the opportunity to play Super Regionas at home as well.
The big takeaway here is that the Aggies get four of their six SEC series against ranked opponents at the friendly confines of Blue Bell Park at Olsen Field. The schedule sets up favorably in that regard, and Texas A&M has a big opportunity to make noise on the national stage at home.
It’s safe to say that finishing in the top 4 in the SEC will likely get you a regional host spot and could realistically give any SEC squad a Top 8 national seed. In 2018, the SEC was filled with parity. Florida finished first in the league at 20-10 while national seeds Georgia, Arkansas, and Ole Miss all ended the conference slate at 18-12.
So if the magic number for a national seed is indeed 18-12, how does A&M get to that win total? First of all, they must win the four home series against ranked opponents. Let’s project 8-4 in these games. In the 12 contests against unranked SEC opponents, three of those series are on the road which complicates the matter. But let’s project an 8-4 mark in those match-ups. That leaves six games on the road against Top 10 powerhouses LSU and Ole Miss. We’ll give the Aggies a 2-4 record there.
Add those up and you get 18-12 in SEC play, and that definitely gets Texas A&M a regional host bid with a decent shot at a national Top 8 seed. The three non-conference games against ranked teams will also play a factor with the NCAA committee.
Well, that’s the path to a favorable post-season seed. It’s an under-statement to say it’s much easier said than done looking at the schedule in advance. In reality, it will be a brutal SEC campaign, but that’s what Texas A&M signed up for when the university made that decision to join the SEC in 2011. Let’s get this season rolling, see you at Olsen!