Series Preview: No. 13 Texas A&M at Kentucky
Who: University of Kentucky (14-7, 0-3 SEC)
Where: Kentucky Proud Park – Lexington, KY
When:
- Friday 5:30 p.m. CT (SEC+)
- Saturday 1:00 p.m. CT (SEC+)
- Sunday 12:00 p.m. CT (SEC+)
Pitching matchups
Friday: John Doxakis (LHP, 3-2, 1.80) vs. Zach Thompson (LHP, 1-0, 2.20)
Saturday: Asa Lacy (LHP, 4-0, 1.86) vs. Grant Macciocchi (RHP, 1-1, 3.18)
Sunday: Christian Roa (RHP, 2-1, 2.29) vs. Dillon Marsh (LHP, 2-1, 5.12)
Scouting Kentucky
The Wildcats are a hard team to figure out 21 games into the 2019 season. The road schedule has been brutal. Kentucky is a combined 0-6 on the road against elite opponents like Texas Tech and LSU. However, at their sparkling brand new Kentucky Proud Park, the Wildcats are near perfect at 11-1. However, the list of home opponents includes Canisius, Eastern Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Southern Illinois, and Boston College – certainly not SEC caliber opponents. So there are no impressive wins on their resume.
Kentucky’s pitching has been solid, yet unremarkable this season with a team ERA of 4.35 and a 1.36 WHIP. In comparison, the Aggie pitching staff comes into the weekend with a shiny 2.56 team ERA and an impressive 1.05 WHIP. Hitters are batting just .205 against Texas A&M arms.
The Kentucky staff has also been bitten by control, surrendering 97 walks in 21 contests while the Aggies have walked just 64 batters in 23 games. So the Aggies definitely have the advantage on the mound for the weekend. But as we’ll see in every conference series this year, every SEC club has a formidable Friday night ace. Kentucky is no different. Lefty Zack Thompson will toe the rubber in tonight’s series opener sporting a 1-0 record with a 2.20 ERA. Opposing hitters are batting a measly .188 against the lefty. Thompson has wipeout stuff as seen by his 46 strikeouts in 28 innings of work. He was listed on several preseason SEC and all-American lists, and his performance to date has not disappointed. He’ll pose a huge challenge to the left-handed mainstays in the lineup like Braden Shewmake and Cameron Blake.
Kentucky’s Saturday starter, Grant Macciocchi, has respectable numbers with a 1-1 record and a 3.18 ERA. For an Aggie offense still trying to knock off the last remaining areas of rust from a tough early season start, he’ll be a difficult assignment on the road...but not an impossible task by any stretch. The rest of the staff is hit-and-miss. There is no designated closer to be feared. There are some quality arms in the bullpen, but the arms coming out of the Wildcat bullpen won’t compare to what the Aggies saw last weekend against Vanderbilt.
At the plate, Kentucky has better offensive numbers as a team than Texas A&M with a group batting average of .270 while scoring 7.00 runs/game. The Aggies have slowly moved up to a .257 team batting average resulting in 6.43 runs/game. Kentucky sports a solid slugging percentage of .424 and they’ve hit 21 home runs on the season in 21 games. In comparison, the Aggies are still light-hitting with a slugging percentage of just .354 and 12 homers in 23 contests.
The Wildcats have the offensive numbers on their side, led by slugger TJ Collett and his team leading seven long balls and 28 RBI. Jaren Shelby has delivered 21 RBI in the middle of the lineup. Coltyn Kessler is the set-up man with his team high .373 hitting and his .476 on-base percentage. Kentucky’s offensive lineup isn’t a murdere’s row by any stretch and won’t be as scary as Vanderbilt’s hitters, but there are a few dangerous bats in the middle of the order that A&M pitchers must navigate cautiously.
Defensively, the Wildcats have struggled somewhat with the glove, fielding as a team at .968 and committing 24 errors. Most P5 collegiate teams strive for a minimum of .970-.972. The Aggies have one of their highest fielding percentages under Rob Childress, sitting at a silky smooth .979 fielding average and committing just 17 errors all season.
Texas A&M storylines to watch
The Aggies grabbed some much needed momentum last weekend to open SEC play with a series win against previous No. 1 Vanderbilt. The goal for this week is simple. Keep the momentum rolling on the road and show that last weekend was a turning point in the season and not a blip. It will be tough. The weekend marks the inaugural SEC series in the new Kentucky Proud Park, a new $50 million stadium that will be showcased all three games. The Kentucky players will have a little extra juice this weekend in defending its new digs in front of the hometown faithful. The Aggies will need to match that energy and enthusiasm, and it needs to happen immediately on Friday facing their ace Zack Thompson.
On paper, runs will be at a premium with the pitching matchup, which means John Doxakis must shed his two-game funk and deliver the goods early and often. The Aggies were able to find a way to survive last weekend with a mediocre outing by Doxakis, but don’t expect that to happen again. This team, with its issues at the plate, must have the veteran lefty doing what he was expected to do as the ace by dominating the opposing bats. His downfall has been his lack of control. It’s not like he’s out there walking the bases loaded, but over the past two weeks he’s been struggling to get ahead in the count. Instead, he’s been getting behind in the count and forced to challnge with a fast ball that the hitter is anticipating.
It wasn’t just Doxakis struggling. Co-ace and Saturday starter Aca Lacy was manhandled last weekend by Vanderbilt. He also fell behind in the count and to Vanderbilt’s credit was able to elevate his pitch count early in the game and it came apart in the 4th inning. Part of that is the quality of the Commodore offense, but part of it was not being sharp and not controlling each at-bat. In college it’s pretty simple.
If a college pitcher can throw 90+ mph and throw an off-speed pitch consistently for a strike, the pitcher will win the battle with a collegiate hitter. That will be the key for both Doxakis and Lacy. They have the velocity and the stuff. They just need to get back to throwing strikes and locating their pitches early in the count, and they will be dominant again. When they are dominant, the Aggies are tough to beat in a weekend series. And of course, if Christian Roa throws anywhere close to how he threw last Sunday, the Aggies will be a heavy favorite to win on get-away day.
On offense, we saw last weekend that the infusion of just one run producing bat makes a huge diference in team production. Jonathan Ducoff was the spark that lit the explosion of the five-run comeback on Saturday and he followed that up with a couple of RBIs on Sunday. That’s exactly what he did in fall practices. He got off to a cold start in February and that’s why he stayed on the bench much of the last three weeks.
So the question this weekend is whether Ducoff takes off from here and gets back into his fall form where he hit nearly .500, or cools back down to February levels. If last weekend was the trigger for longer-term success at the plate, then this offense just got a lot better. With Ty Coleman also starting to become a run producer in the ssix-hole, the lineup suddenly looks mch better. If Braden Shewmake keeps pulling himself out of his early season hole and has a nice weekend, then A&M could be looking at winning a road series.
The other offensive question is Logan Foster, who injured his leg last weekend and has missed 2-3 games. He should be ready to go this weekend, and that begs the question on what Coach Childress will do with the lineup. He has to keep Ducoff in the lineup, but Foster has been your starter all season. With Kentucky throwing two lefties, the likely scenario is Ducoff playing a DH and sitting the lefty Will Frizzell who has been struggling most of the season. At least there are options with the offense at this point.
What's at stake this weekend
It’s grind time in the SEC, and every series is difficult and every series is important. This is Texas A&M’s first true weekend road series and they will be dealing with the inaugural SEC series in Kentucky’s new ballpark.
