Series Preview: Texas A&M aims for third straight series win vs. Mizzou

Who: University of Missouri (21-11, 4-8 SEC)
Where: Olsen Field at Blue Bell Park – Bryan-College Station, Texas
When:

Thursday: 7:00 p.m. CT (ESPNU)
Friday: 6:00 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)
Saturday: 12:30 p.m. CT (SEC Network+)

Pitching matchups

Thursday: Nathan Dettmer (RHP, 1-3, 5.98) vs. Logan Lunceford (RHP, 3-1, 3.29)
Friday: TBA vs. TBA
Saturday: TBA vs. Chandler Murphy (RHP, 3-3, 4.01)

Scouting Missouri

Talk about a rollercoaster season. Of the four SEC series Missouri has played, three have been sweeps. The Tigers shocked the college baseball community when they swept No. 2 Tennessee on the opening weekend of the SEC season. They followed that up by losing six straight conference games to South Carolina and Kentucky before finally going 1-2 against No. 4 Vanderbilt.

The Tigers have been bitten by the injury bug on the mound, and they have been moving pieces around the starting rotation. With that said, they still have plenty of arm talent and certainly have better season stats to this point. The Tigers will throw freshman Logan Lunceford first, who is 3-1 with a very solid 3.29 ERA. He’ll be facing Nathan Dettmer with an ERA over two points higher (5.98) and 1-3 record.

To show you just how in flux both of these teams are on the mound, game two is the classic TBA vs. TBA matchup. Missouri has the edge in starting pitching on paper in game three, tossing Arizona senior transfer Chandler Murphy (3-3, 4.01).

Again, the Aggies are going TBA for now. Missouri also has a dominant reliever that may be inserted into the starting rotation on Saturday. Rorik Maltrud boasts a nice 2.88 ERA, but even more impressive is his 34 innings pitched to only 19 hits allowed.

That’s pretty nasty. Look at the pitching stats below. Missouri has a decided advantage in every statistical category.

On the offensive side, the team stats are virtually identical with one huge exception. Missouri doesn’t take many free passes, only walking 147 times to A&M’s 206. That’s the big reason why A&M has scored 41 more runs despite many statistical categories being similar. The Tigers like to swing and earn their way on base. That’s music to the ears of A&M’s pitching staff. They need some opposing hitters that will swing at pitches out of the zone. 

Luke Mann is Missouri’s leading hitter at .336, and leads the squad in home runs with 10. He’s definitely a hitter the Aggies must neutralize. Hank Zeisler is tops in driving in runs with 35 RBIs and nine homers. Missouri has several other capable hitters in the .290-.320 range, but not with the run production of Mann and Zeisler.

Texas A&M storylines to watch

Nathan Dettmer had his best outing of the season last week, but unfortunately had one really bad half-inning that spoiled it. He struck out a career-high 11 batters and looked in control except for the five two-out runs he surrendered in the third inning. He threw up zeros into the sixth frame, so there’s hope he’s close to figuring out his problems on the mound. The other two starts last weekend (Justin Lamkin and Chris Cortez) were complete disasters. That’s a big reason why Jim Schlossnagle is pulling out the TBA card twice for this weekend.

I think he has to take a wait-and-see approach, throw some guys out there and come with the quick hook if it’s not going well.

While Schlossnagle is refusing to name a game two and three starters, he did hint at possibly starting Josh Stewart, the transfer from Texas (and a cousin of Kohl Stewart) after his last two outings in midweek games that were not only good, but outstanding. Lefty Brandyn Garcia has also started to calm down and throw more strikes, and he’s emerging as a centerpiece to this pitching staff, whether that’s in the bullpen or as a potential starting pitcher.

I know, that’s a lot of “ifs, ands, and buts,” but unfortunately, that’s where we are in mid-April. We’ll see how Coach Schlossnagle decides to play it out on the mound.

At the plate, we’ve talked about the significant improvement from Jace LaViolette. The freshman is finally “getting it” and learning to lay off that offspeed junk in the dirt. It’s starting to pay off in the lineup. His average has jumped 40 to 50 points in the last couple of weeks, and he now leads the team in home runs (8) and RBIs (35) as a true freshman on a veteran hitting lineup.

Chris Swann, TexAgs

Brett Minnich currently holds a six-game hit streak heading into the weekend.

Brett Minnich has added some power and spark to the middle of the order. So the offense has improved, but it still needs to get better. Don’t be fooled by last week’s series against Auburn where the Aggies benefitted from a whopping 30 walks. Missouri pitching won’t give A&M those kinds of favors this weekend. The Aggies will face much better arms and will be forced to earn every run.

Ryan Targac, Trevor Werner and Austin Bost have shown some limited signs of crawling out of their extended slumps, but the team needs these experienced vets to really break out and have a huge weekend. It’s too late in the season to take solace in a couple of hard-hit balls over the course of a weekend. It’s time for the veterans to take control of some ball games at the plate.

What’s at stake this weekend

The game of baseball is about the long term. You can’t get too high or too low in the moment because there’s always another game the next day and many games in a season to right the ship.

Yes, the Aggies aren’t even halfway through the SEC conference slate, and it’s hard to say a series in April is critical, but in this case, the season is hanging in the balance. After getting swept by Tennessee and falling four games under .500 in the SEC, A&M has rebounded to win two consecutive weekend series. 

Still, the Aggies are two games underwater. In this conference, if you get swept, then you better turn the tables and sweep an opponent along the way if the goal is to get back to .500 and have a realistic shot at making the NCAA Regionals.

After this weekend, A&M hits the road for consecutive series against top-5 Arkansas and a red-hot top-12 Kentucky team. The Aggies will be doing well to break even on the road. They return home to face No. 3 Florida before ending the season against Alabama and Mississippi State. So the realistic opportunities to earn a much-needed sweep are quickly dwindling. 

Chris Swann, TexAgs

The Aggies hold an all-time 31-18 edge on the Tigers in games played on Olsen Field.

Missouri certainly is much better than their 4-8 SEC record. They won a game against No. 4 Vanderbilt and came close to winning the series. However, they are 0-6 on the road in conference play and have struggled away from Columbia.

Thus, the Aggies need to take advantage of Missouri’s road woes and shoot for the sweep. Winning two out of three is a good weekend, but that would still leave A&M under .500 going on the road for six games against nationally-ranked competition.

They would be still alive but running out of time to get back to level. 

Realistically, this team can’t lose a home series the rest of the season and especially not to a 4-8 Missouri club. The hole could be too deep to climb out of if A&M concludes this weekend at 6-9. 

I hate to sound so dramatic this early in the conference campaign, but this team could really use a sweep against the Tigers. It’s a tall order, but that’s the task at hand at this point I’m afraid.

At the very least, A&M can stay alive by winning two.