SEC Round-Up: Top-15 T-Town bout finds Tide hoping to avoid 2-2 start

Saban’s quandary isn’t as rare as Halley’s comet, it just seems that way.

Alabama is facing a predicament it hasn’t seen in two decades.

The Crimson Tide could be eliminated from national championship contention with two-thirds of the football season remaining to be played.

That has never happened with Nick Saban as coach.

The last time Alabama started a 2-2 was in 2003. That year was the first under Mike Shula — Saban’s predecessor in Tuscaloosa — and the Tide lost its second game to Oklahoma. Two weeks later, Alabama suffered a stunning 19-16 loss to Northern Illinois.

No. 13 Alabama (2-1) hopes to avoid another 2-2 start when the Crimson Tide hosts to No. 15 Ole Miss (3-0) on Saturday at 2:30 p.m. CT.

Alabama is actually favored by a touchdown, but that line may be based on years past more than this year.

Two weeks ago, Alabama was dominated by Texas, 34-24. Then, last week Alabama scored a touchdown in the final minute to subdue South Florida, 17-7.

Meanwhile, Ole Miss has posted three victories by at least 17 points.

Perhaps not since Saban’s first year in 2007 has Alabama appeared so vulnerable. That concerns Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, a former Alabama offensive coordinator.

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Lane Kiffin is still winless against his former boss Nick Saban.

“Sometimes you lose early. I think in my three years there (as offensive coordinator at Alabama), we only lost at home one time and that was Ole Miss,” Kiffin said at his weekly press conference. “Sometimes that can kind of humble the team and can reset things. You see that often. People have a loss early, and people start discounting them.”

Perhaps only the foolish discount Alabama.

But it seems equally foolish to dismiss Ole Miss’s chances of toppling the Tide.

Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart is averaging 284 passing yards per game and has thrown seven touchdown passes.

Meanwhile, Alabama’s pass coverage has been erratic. Texas threw for 349 yards.

Alabama has even bigger issues on offense. Quarterback Jalen Milroe was benched following a poor showing against Texas.

Milroe was reinserted as the starter when replacements Tyler Buchner and Ty Simpson were ineffective against South Florida.

Alabama’s offensive line has been even more disappointing. Too many sacks have been allowed. Too few rushing yards have been produced.

That raises doubts whether Alabama and keep up with a high-scoring Ole Miss offense, which already boasts an SEC-leading 52.7 point average.

Alabama has won scoring shutouts with Kiffin before. In 2020, Alabama outscored Ole Miss 63-48. In 2021, Alabama prevailed 42-21. Last year, Alabama won 30-24.

But this is another season. And it kind of feels like 2003.

Ole Miss beat Alabama, 43-28, that year.

Around the SEC

This week’s games: Auburn at Texas A&M; Kentucky at Vanderbilt; No. 15 Ole Miss at No. 13 Alabama; UTSA at No. 23 Tennessee; Arkansas at No. 12 LSU; Charlotte at No. 25 Florida; UAB at No. 1 Georgia; Memphis at Missouri; Mississippi State at South Carolina

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For Simpson to continue his streak, he’ll have to pick off Conner Weigman, who has only thrown two career INTs.

Who’s hot: Auburn cornerback Jaylin Simpson has grabbed an interception in every game. Not surprisingly, he leads the SEC and is tied for tops nationally. Simpson returned a pick 50 yards for a touchdown in the Tigers’ win over Massachusetts. He had a 25-yard return against Cal and a 12-yard return against Samford. He has more interceptions than eight SEC teams.

Who’s not: Alabama’s offensive line has been uncharacteristically mediocre. The Crimson Tide is averaging just 171.6 rushing yards and has allowed 12 sacks. South Carolina is the only SEC team to have surrendered more sacks. Last week, the Tide had up an alarming five sacks to South Florida. The previous week, Texas had five. Middle Tennessee got two in the season opener. Further, opponents have been credited with hurrying Alabama’s quarterbacks on 10 other occasions.

Keep an eye on: Kentucky running back Ray Davis is off to a mediocre start. He has rushed for 236 yards, though he only got seven carries in last week’s blowout of Akron. He has the ability to be much more productive. Last season, Davis exceeded 100 yards rushing en route to finishing with 1,042. That was at Vanderbilt, where he played before transferring to Kentucky. This week, Davis faces his old teammates, so he has that motivation. Also, Vanderbilt is ranked dead last in the SEC in run defense.

Pressure is on: Mississippi State offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay may soon be feeling the heat. That is if he isn’t already. The passing game, which was so effective in the late Mike Leach’s “Air Raid” system has become sluggish. The Bulldogs are ranked 14th in the SEC in passing offense. This is with senior quarterback Will Rogers still around. Rogers led the SEC in passing in 2021 and in 2022. Last year, he passed for 3,974 yards and 35 touchdowns. So far this year, Rogers is 13th among SEC passes. He has passed for 492 yards and just five touchdowns. That’d be fine if the Bulldogs were winning, but they needed overtime to hold off lowly Arizona and last week managed just 201 yards of offense in a blowout loss to LSU. The Bulldogs face South Carolina, which statistically has the worst defense in the SEC. If they can’t move the football against South Carolina, it may be a lost cause.

Best matchup: Boosted by Cincinnati transfer linebacker Jaheim Thomas, Arkansas leads the SEC in run defense. No opponent has rushed for more than 77 yards. But none of the first three opponents run particularly well. The Razorbacks can prove their mettle against LSU, which is ranked third in the SEC in rushing offense. That might be deceiving, too, though. The Tigers’ rushing stats are skewed by a 302-yard outburst against overmatched Grambling. Still, LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels is a bona fide rushing threat. Notre Dame transfer Logan Diggs, who did not play in the season-opening loss to Florida State, has been effective in the last two games.