Around CFB: Who will be disguised as playoff caliber on Halloween?
Next Tuesday the first official College Football Playoff rankings will be released.
It’s only fitting that’s on Halloween. Some unbeaten teams may only be disguised as playoff caliber.
Six Power 5 teams — Florida State, Oklahoma, Michigan, Ohio State, Washington and Georgia — are currently unbeaten.
Ten with one loss will spend the rest of the season walking on egg shells. A second loss equals elimination.
Alabama learned that last year. The Tide lost twice on the last play of the game to ranked opponents on the road. If that team can’t get in with two losses, who will?
However, the unbeaten teams will be walking on egg shells, too. That’s even if they are able to finish unbeaten. Only four teams make the playoff, so an unbeaten team could be left out.
Who would that be?
Let’s take a look. Again, this is assuming these teams finish unbeaten:
The winner of Ohio State and Michigan will be guaranteed a playoff spot. Ohio State already has wins over Notre Dame and Penn State. A win over Michigan should ensure a No. 1 seed. Of course, a win over Ohio State may ensure a No. 1 seed for Michigan, which would also have a victory over Penn State.
Georgia would be in. The Bulldogs beat Kentucky, which was ranked when they played. Ranked opponents Missouri, Ole Miss and Tennessee await. So would an SEC Championship game against No. 9 Alabama or No. 15 LSU.
Running the table would give Georgia a strong argument for the No. 1 seed.
Florida State would be in. The Seminoles have already done the heavy lifting with victories over LSU, Clemson and No. 20 Duke.
No ranked opponents remain in the regular season, though they could play Duke, No. 17 North Carolina or No. 18 Louisville for the ACC championship.
Oklahoma. The Sooners might be put in the unusual situation of adamantly rooting for Texas. OU’s win over Texas is their only impressive victory. Their other six opponents are a combined 20-22. No ranked opponents are left on the schedule. A second win over Texas in the Big 12 Championship game would help — if the Longhorns get there. If the Longhorns don’t, OU’s already questionable strength of schedule appears weakened.
Washington. The Huskies’ strength of schedule thus far can also be called into question. But Washington has a victory over No. 8 Oregon. Also, regular season games with No. 24 USC, No. 13 Utah State and No. 11 Oregon State remain. OU couldn’t match that.
Committees can make incredulous decisions (see taking Ohio State and Notre Dame over Texas A&M in 2020), so nothing can be taken for granted.
But if five teams finish unbeaten, Oklahoma should be the one left out of the playoff.
Heisman watch (If my ballot was due today)
1. Jayden Daniels, LSU, QB: Through eight games Daniels leads the nation in total offense with 3,094 yards. He’s passed for 2,573 yards and 25 touchdowns with three interceptions. He’s rushed for 521 yards and five touchdowns. Last week, Daniels completed 11-of-15 passes for 279 yards and three touchdowns in a 62-0 blasting of Army.
2. Michael Penix, Washington, QB: His numbers weren’t bad in a 15-7 victory over Arizona State last week. He passed for 275 yards. But he had no touchdowns and threw two interceptions. The Huskies were saved by a 89-yard pick six, which shows he didn’t even lead the offense to a touchdown. Overall, Penix still leads the nation with 2,576 passing yards. He’s thrown 25 touchdowns and five interceptions.
3. Jordan Travis, Florida State, QB: Though he is only ranked 39th in the nation in passing, Travis has led the Seminoles to victories over No. 15 LSU and No. 20 Duke as well as Clemson. Travis passed for 268 yards and two touchdowns and rushed for 62 yards and a TD in a 38-20 victory over Duke last week. He threw a touchdown pass and ran for a score in the fourth quarter of a come-from-behind victory. Overall, he’s passed for 1,750 yards and 15 touchdowns. He’s rushed for 176 yards and five TDs.
4. Malik Nabers, LSU, WR: The national receiving leader with 981 yards on 56 catches. That’s a 17.5 average per catch. Nabers also has nine touchdowns. He’s had more than 100 receiving yards in five games. That includes last week when he had four catches for 121 yards and two touchdowns in a 62-0 victory over Army. He’s had no fewer than 67 receiving yards in any game.
5. Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State, WR: Harrison is on a hot streak with at least six catches and at least 105 receiving yards in each of the last three games. Last week he had 11 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown in a 20-12 victory over Penn State. He’s exceeded 100 receiving yards in five games and has had at least 160 in three. On the season, Harrison has 42 catches for 766 yards and six touchdowns. He’s averaging 18.2 yards per catch.
Predicted Playoff Participants
1. Georgia: The undefeated Bulldogs must face three ranked opponents in November. They’ve only faced one ranked team thus far. They beat then-No. 20 Kentucky, 51-13.
2. Michigan: The Wolverines are showing all the signs of a championship team. They’re may be even stealing the signs of one, too.
3. Florida State: They added to their impressive resume with a win over Duke last week.
4. Washington: Seemingly every playoff team has to survive at least one upset scare. The Huskies got their’s last week against Arizona State.
Games to Watch
No. 1 Georgia vs. Florida: Georgia has appeared vulnerable at times. That can be dangerous in a rival game.
No. 8 Oregon at No. 13 Utah: One-loss ranked opponents trying to stay in contention for the Pac-12 championship.
No. 20 Duke at No. 18 Louisville: Two of four one-loss teams in the ACC. The winner still has a chance to reach the conference title game. The loser probably doesn’t.
No. 21 Tennessee at Kentucky: Good old-fashion border rivalry. Second place in the SEC East could be at stake, though Missouri will have something to say about that.
No. 6 Oklahoma at Kansas: Oklahoma has playoff aspirations, but barely escaped Central Florida last week. If the Sooners don’t play better they may not escape Kansas.
