Aggies, Gaels, Coogs & Vandals descend upon OKC
Teams: No. 2 Houston, No. 7 Saint Mary’s, No. 10 Texas A&M, No. 15 Idaho
Time/Date:
- Thursday – Texas A&M vs. Saint Mary’s (6:35 p.m. CT)
- Thursday – Houston vs. Idaho (9:10 p.m. CT)
- Saturday – TBA
Game Location: Paycom Center – Oklahoma City, Okla.
Winner Advances: Sweet 16 – Houston, Texas
What the Oddsmakers Think
Saint Mary’s (-3.5) vs. Texas A&M
Houston (-23.5) vs. Idaho
Odds to Advance to the Sweet 16 (DraftKings)
Houston: -280 (bet $10 to win $3.57 profit)
Saint Mary’s: +360 (bet $10 to win $36 profit)
Texas A&M: +900 (bet $10 to win $90 profit)
Idaho: +9000 (bet $10 to win $900 profit)
KenPom Win Probabilities
Saint Mary’s (61%) to beat Texas A&M
Houston (97%) to beat Idaho
KenPom Projected Scores
Saint Mary’s 76, Texas A&M 73
Houston 79, Idaho 59
This is a “tortoise and the hare” pod.
Styles make fights, and no pod embodies that more than the one containing the Aggies, Gaels, Cougars and Vandals.
No. 10 seed Texas A&M and No. 15 seed Idaho are two of the top-30 fastest tempo teams in the NCAA Tournament, while No. 2 seed Houston and No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s are two of the top-10 slowest tempo teams in the field of 68.
Both matchups will feature the underdog trying to speed the game up against two of the top seven defenses in the country. Both matchups will feature an up-and-coming head coach in their 40s looking for their first NCAA Tournament win against a legendary future Hall of Fame head coach.
Bucky McMillan vs. Randy Bennett and Alex Pribble vs. Kelvin Sampson.
In what may be Sampson’s final year at the helm, the Coogs are the heavy favorites to emerge from OKC and play the second weekend in front of a home crowd at the Toyota Center. However, this month is where Cinderella stories become legendary, so might the slipper fit for one of the lower-seeded teams?
If you love an underdog story, this is the pod for you.
Let’s meet the teams in Oklahoma City from the South Region:
No. 10 Texas A&M (21-11, 11-7 SEC) - At-large bid
- NET Ranking: 44
- Quad 1 Record: 5-8
- KenPom Offensive Efficiency Rank: No. 49
- KenPom Defensive Efficiency Rank: No. 41
- Top Scorers: Rashaun Agee (14.7 PPG), Rylan Griffen (11.6), Marcus Hill (10.8)
- Top Rebounders: Rashaun Agee (8.9 RPG), Marcus Hill (3.2), Zach Clemence (3.1)
The Fightin’ Texas Aggies are playing with house money. They entered 2026 with less than a 35 percent chance to make the NCAA Tournament, per Torvik, but they beat the odds by going 11-7 and finishing tied for fourth in the toughest conference in the country. This roster is flawed in many ways — lacking height, physicality and consistent shooting — but the Ags make up for it with an undeniable will to get up off the canvas and fight.
After losing their best player, Mackenzie Mgbako, to a broken foot, A&M shocked the country with a 7-1 start to SEC play. A month ago, their season looked to be on life support on a four-game losing streak and down 10 to Ole Miss with seven minutes left, but the Ags went on a 12-2 run in the final four minutes to save it. Even two weeks ago, they needed a couple more wins to lock up their spot in the NCAA Tournament, but found themselves down double digits in the first half to both Kentucky and LSU. They rallied both times to save their season and avoid the play-in game in Dayton.
At every turn of adversity, this team has fought. If they can fight for 80 more minutes, they have the chance to take A&M to the second weekend for the first time since 2018. They’ll have to overcome elite size and defense to get there, but if you’ve learned anything from watching March Madness, it’s not about the size of the dog in the fight. It’s about the size of the fight in the dog. Led by determined veterans Rashaun Agee and Rylan Griffen, the Aggies are eager to prove that Bucky Ball can thrive in the tournament.
No. 7 Saint Mary’s (27-5, 16-2 WCC) - At-large bid
- NET Ranking: 22
- Quad 1 Record: 1-4
- KenPom Offensive Efficiency Rank: No. 43
- KenPom Defensive Efficiency Rank: No. 19
- Top Scorers: Paulius Murauskas (18.8 PPG), Mikey Lewis (14.2), Joshua Dent (13.0)
- Top Rebounders: Andrew McKeever (9.2 RPG), Paulius Murauskas (7.7), Dillan Shaw (5.3)
When you think of the West Coast Conference, you think of Gonzaga. But what if I told you it was Saint Mary’s that’s been the better team in that league over the last four years? Indeed, the Gaels have won the regular season title outright or split it with the Zags for four consecutive years.
Every year, people underestimate the WCC, but this year is the wrong year to do that. For the first time since 2022, three WCC teams made the NCAA Tournament, and all three have a legitimate chance to make the second weekend. There’s No. 3 seed Gonzaga, who should roll past BYU, Texas or NC State, and No. 10 seed Santa Clara, who is a popular upset pick over No. 7 seed Kentucky. Finally, No. 7 seed Saint Mary’s is built to last in March. Bennett’s team has elite size with two seven-footers and the 13th-tallest team in the country. They have elite guard play in Mikey Lewis and Joshua Dent. They control the glass and the free-throw margin. All of that wins in the NCAA Tournament.
Despite earning a top-seven seed in five consecutive NCAA Tournaments, the Gaels haven’t made it to the Sweet 16 since 2010. They are just 8-10 in the month of March over the last five years. Can Bennett break through and reverse their mediocre March trend?
No. 2 Houston (28-6, 14-4 Big 12) - At-large bid
- NET Ranking: 5
- Quad 1 Record: 10-6
- KenPom Offensive Efficiency Rank: No. 14
- KenPom Defensive Efficiency Rank: No. 5
- Top Scorers: Kingston Flemings (16.4 PPG), Emanuel Sharp (15.3), Milos Uzan (11.1)
- Top Rebounders: Chris Cenac Jr. (7.5 RPG), Joseph “JoJo” Tugler (5.4), Kingston Flemings (3.9)
This is your typical Houston basketball team under Sampson. They’re tough, physical and elite on the glass, defensively and in the turnover margin. The Cougars fell one possession short of a national title last season, losing to Florida 65-63 in San Antonio, and they are determined to get back to the Final Four. If they can handle their business in OKC, a favorable draw awaits them with Sweet 16 and Elite Eight games in their backyard.
Led by freshman sensations Kingston Flemings and Chris Cenac Jr., veterans Emanuel Sharp, Milos Uzan and JoJo Tugler and a spark off the bench in Mercy Miller, Houston has the pieces to make a deep run, but they’re a bit more vulnerable than you may think. They’re slightly worse offensively and defensively than they were last year, but they’re better in the turnover percentages to make up for it. Some experts are predicting an exit before the Final Four because the Coogs rely on a ton of tough two-pointers to score, evident by the fact that they’re 364th nationally in average two-point distance at 8.2 feet. When they’re hitting these tough twos, it’s impossible for defenses to stop them, but if you can catch them on an off night, you stand a chance. This is what bit them last year against Florida’s length, but with one of the toughest shot takers and makers in the country in Flemings leading them this year, many Cougar fans believe they’ll be able to get over the hump and send Sampson off at the mountaintop.
No. 15 Idaho (21-14, 10-9 Big Sky) - Big Sky Tournament Champions
- NET Ranking: 145
- Quad 1 Record: 0-0
- KenPom Offensive Efficiency Rank: No. 176
- KenPom Defensive Efficiency Rank: No. 136
- Top Scorers: Jackson Rasmussen (13.9 PPG), Kolton Mitchell (13.7), Biko Johnson (12.4)
- Top Rebounders: Brody Rowbury (5.2 RPG), Jackson Rasmussen (4.7), Jack Payne (4.2)
The final team in OKC is the Idaho Vandals, the champions of the Big Sky. They defeated Money Williams and the Montana Grizzlies 77-66 in the finals of Starch Madness. Yes, their conference tournament is called Starch Madness because it’s played in Boise, Idaho, and yes, it is the best conference tournament name over the Missouri Valley Conference’s Arch Madness in St. Louis.
The Vandals were the unlikely champions of the Big Sky, winning five games in five days as the No. 7 seed and upsetting No. 2 seed Montana State, No. 3 seed Eastern Washington and No. 4 seed Montana. Making their first March Madness appearance since 1990, when Kermit Davis was their head coach, the Vandals have a tall task in front of them with Houston. Idaho is a pretty average mid-major team, not too great offensively or defensively, but they are the No. 5 team in the country at limiting their opponents' offensive rebounding percentage to just 24.2 percent.
They’ll need all the defensive rebounds they can get in this region with Houston and Saint Mary’s lurking. KenPom gives them just a three percent chance to advance to the Round of 32 and pick up their first NCAA Tournament win since 1982 when they were a No. 3 seed.