The Stars in the playoffs have been a completely different team than the Stars in the regular season were. However, in the regular season we did play very well at the Shark Tank and against the Ducks.
I will preface this by saying I don't know a terribly lot about the Wings, but this is what I do know. Hasek is way past his prime, but still above average and Chris Osgood is still what he's always been: a servicable goalie in a great situation. Detroit has talent coming out the anus led by one of the all-time great defensemen in Nik Lidstrum. Chris Chelios may be 47 (ish), but he's still a solid bruising defenseman. Offensively, they have a lot of guys who can put the puck in the net led by Pavel Datsyk and Zetterberg. A guy by the name of Franzen took the last round by storm, scoring an NHL record for goals in a series by scoring NINE goals in 4 games. He had 2 hat tricks, a 2 goal game, and a bad game where he only lit the lamp once.
Detroit's strength is puck possession. They get the puck and they don't give it away. They are great in the neutral zone for this reason. The don't allow a whole lot of rebounds, and when they do, they usually snatch them up and take off the other way. This is why Osgood and the latest version of Hasek have been so "good". It's not that they aren't good, it's just that they aren't put in bad situations. They have a great power play (when you have a lot of talent, your power play tends to be good). Aside from the oodles of goal scorers, Lidstrum makes it easy for everyone. Don't know a lot about their penalty kill, but I know it's one of the top 5 or 10 in the league.
With that said...
The Stars have never been good against the wings. Marty has only won once in Joe Louis Arena in his career. I don't think it's a mental thing, I just think the Wings have been able to abuse our defense in the past and make it tough for Marty, since he was often left out to dry.
This is a different team than the one the Wings are used to seeing. Marty is playing some of the best goal of his career and the defense has been very good for the most part. As long as we don't let the Wings stay in our zone for extended periods of time, I don't see this being a bad matchup for the Stars. We have one of the top goalies, top defensive units, and top special teams in all of hockey, we aren't overmatched at all. However, if we don't come to play we won't survive this series. Detroit won the President's cup for a reason, and they beat Nashville and Colorado for a reason: they are damn good.
All the experts will pick Detroit, probably in about 6 games, but this series could go either way. I think this will be an incredibly physical series, but I am picking the Stars in 6 for several reasons:
1) I'm a Stars homer.
2) Marty Turco. He has been the best goalie in the playoffs this year BAR NONE. He is starting to remind me of Eddie Belfour from his days with the Stars. Everyone said he couldn't handle the pressure of playoff hockey even though he was always one of the best goalies in the regualr season every year. Once Eddie got to Dallas things started to click and he was phenominal. Starting with the Vancouver series last year Marty has been amazing. Goaltending and defense wins in the postseason...
3) Defense. The Stars have been a very aggresive team on defense, and a very physical team on defense. They are on of the top forechecking teams in hockey and one of the best backchecking teams in hockey. The Stars are a much improved scoring team over some of the teams they've had in the past, but they still are known for their defense.
4) Special Teams. The Stars are second in the playoffs (behind Calgary) in power play percentage at 25% and tied for 4th (with Detroit) in penalty kill percentage, at 85.7%. Special teams are HUGE in the playoffs because 5-on-5 hockey is so physical in the playoffs with most of the time spent in the neutral zone. The power play is the least of my concerns against the Wings, but penalty killing will be a huge part of this series. Fortunatly, the Stars are a very diciplined team and don't take too many penalties.
In the end, I think this will be another great series, but I like the Stars to finish off the Wings at the AAC in the 6th game. I predict Marty and Morrow to have huge series (again).
Hope this series analysis works for you.
Ross Lindsey '06