quote:
I think the NCAA rankings probably look more favorably upon beating a top 13 team than than they do on losing to a no. 40 team. Denton had no choice but to do what he did.
I disagree. I would think that the goal at this point would be to stay in the top 16 and host a NCAA regional. Being pretty solidly in the top 16, all you have to do is beat the teams behind you.
The ranking are done 100% by computer, and the quality of both the win and the loss is considered. If we had an "AP" poll, Pollsters might give more credit for the big win and not subtract for the big loss, but the computer is unbiased. At this point the rankings are pretty true - Rice is a legit 40 and t.u. is a legit 13. Computer-wise, when you lose to a 40 and you beat a 13, you have only "proved" to the computer that your ranking ought to be somewhere in between.
Conversely if you're at #12 and lose to 13 and beat 40, you're probably only going to drop to 13 or 14. At the same time if you beat them both, you're no likely to climb that much at this point in the season either. So really the smart move IMO would have been to "lay up".
The way that the NCAA tournament shapes out, you're really just playing for seeding and not necessarily for ranking. Being #16 is really no worse than being #8 because you still get to host a regional...and the overall ranking at that point (once you're hosting) is not all that relevant because regionals are distributed by geography rather than by ranking...which means that if we finish out of the top 16 we're going to go to a regional at Baylor or t.u. as a #2 regional seed as opposed to basketball, where we might travel to...wherever, because finishing at #18 we would be a 4 or 5 bracket seed. If we end up hosting (assuming Baylor and t.u. end up top-16 as well), then we'll probably get Tulsa, LSU, or OSU to come in as a #2 seed, giving us a great chance to go to the sweet 16. That was basically the Tim Cass forumula for NCAA tournament success - avoiding Baylor in the regionals. Obviously you'd like to not have to be scared of them but we're not at that point yet.
Just my opinion.