Late night update 2/4/26: Women's Olympic Tournament PreviewThe Women's Olympic tournament is divided into 2 groups of five teams based upon IIHF rankings. Each team plays one game against each of the other teams in its group during the preliminary round. In the preliminary round 3 points in the group standings are awarded for a regulation win, 2 points for an overtime or shootout win, 1 point for an overtime or shootout loss, and 0 points for a regulation defeat.
Group A:USA
Canada
Finland
Czechia
Switzerland
Group B:Sweden
Germany
Japan
France
Italy
After the group phase ends, the teams are seeded according to the following formula to determine the quarterfinal matchups. This is a different formula than used in the men's tournament, and yes you are reading that properly, all of the teams in Group A automatically qualify for the quarterfinals.
Group A #1 vs Group B #3
Group A #2 vs Group B #2
Group A #3 vs Group B #1
Group A #4 vs Group A #5
After the quarterfinals the teams are reseeded for the semifinals based upon the combined group standings (Group B #1 slotting in right behind Group A #5). The winners of the semifinal games advance to the Gold Medal game, while the losers of the semifinal games move on to the Bronze Medal game. The loser of the Gold Medal game wins the Silver Medal.
If you are curious as to why the tournament is set up this way, I believe it is a legacy formula designed to all but guarantee two USA vs. Canada matchups - one in the preliminary round and the second in the Gold Medal game - rather than the two teams beating up their inferior competition in the preliminary round and only meeting once in (likely) the Gold Medal game.
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Before sharing my thoughts on some of the other teams, and making my tournament predictions, a couple things about the state of women's international hockey in general.
As has been the case since the introduction of women's ice hockey to the Olympics in the 1990s, there is less parity in the international women's game amongst the top half dozen or so teams than in the men's game. The USA and Canada totally dominate the sport, to the point where literally no team other than the USA or Canada has won an Olympic tournament or IIHF Women's World Championship (which is held every year)... ever.
Here is how I would describe the three-tiered hierarchy of women's international hockey:
Tier One: Teams that have a greater than 1% chance of winning the Gold Medal at either the Olympics or World ChampionshipsUSA
Canada
Tier Two: Teams that have almost no chance of advancing to the Gold Medal game, but will almost certainly comprise the group of teams that have a chance of making it to and winning the Bronze Medal game. This group of teams is largely comprised of the other countries that actually care about and play hockey.Finland
Sweden
Czechia
Switzerland
Slovakia (even though they didn't qualify for the Olympics this time)
Russia (when they are eventually allowed by the IIHF to compete again)
Germany (I'm being extra generous here including them in this tier)
Tier Three: The teams that have no chance of medaling, but at least they get to compete.Everyone else
Here is the basic plotline the tournament will almost certainly follow:A whole bunch of games will be played. The USA and Canada will win every game when they are not playing each other. The winner of the USA-Canada game during the preliminary round will determine the overall #1 and #2 seeds for the quarterfinals and semifinals. The USA and Canada will play again for the Gold Medal, and two other teams from Tier Two will play for the Bronze Medal.
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Having said all of that, here are my thoughts on some of the other teams, followed by my predictions for the tournament.
Team Canada:The only other team that
really matters is Team Canada. For the better part of the last thirty years, the games between Team USA and Team Canada have been close 50/50 contests with no clear favorite.
That still being the case - whichever of the two teams wins the Gold Medal this year will not be in the least bit surprising - I would not say that these teams (or programs) are necessarily mirror images of each other at the moment.
Over the last four years, the Team USA brain trust has done a better job than Team Canada's of integrating its next generation of top tier players into the senior national team. This is evidenced by the fact that Team USA's Olympic roster features 16 PWHL players and 7 current NCAA players (most of whom are expected to be major contributors), while Team Canada's entire 23 player roster is comprised of PWHLers.
As such, over the last calendar year the increasingly younger and faster Team USA has started, just a little bit, maybe, to create a wee bit of distance between themselves and Team Canada in terms of quality. This distance, if it exists, first evidenced itself at the 2025 IIHF Women's World Championships where Team USA beat the Canadians twice en route to the Gold Medal, and then again during the four game exhibition Rivalry Series this past November/December. Team USA swept all four games by scores of 4-1, 6-1, 10-4, and 4-1.
Given how important hockey is to Canadians, even women's hockey, the 2025 showings versus Team USA caused a storm of hand wringing and anxiety about the state of their women's hockey team up in the Great White North. Here is taste of what they're saying in Canada right now, with an emerging consensus that the 2026 Olympics are akin to a "Last Hurrah" for this iteration of their women's national team.
Opinion: Did Team Canada Just Select a Silver Medal Roster?Personally, I think this recent talk of Team Canada perhaps being the underdog to Team USA is rather overblown.
Maybe Team USA should be a
very slight favorite this time around, but if so not by much, and if I were compare the teams by positions it would go like this.
Forwards: even
Defense: very slight advantage Team USA
Goalies: even
And keep in mind, the Gold Medal match is a single game, not a best of seven or best of five series, where anything can happen between evenly matched teams, and Canada still has the best (probably) player in the world in the Montreal Victoire's
Marie-Philip Poulin, who is single-handedly capable of winning for her team a single game.
In addition to Poulin, a player I would look to have a break-out tournament for Team Canada is
Daryl Watts of the Toronto Sceptres, who was the third leading scorer in the PWHL last season.
Now, let's take a look at the rest of the teams with either a chance to medal or at least play
somewhat competitive games versus USA or Canada.
Team Sweden:If Team Sweden weren't in Group B, which means they'll likely have to play either Finland or Czechia in the quarterfinal round, I'd like their chances even more to compete for the Bronze Medal, right up there with Finland, Czechia, and perhaps ahead of Team Switzerland.
Team Sweden features a handful of PWHL players on their roster, highlighted by captain
Anna Kjellbin of the Toronto Sceptres, a host of players competing currently in D1 NCAA hockey in the United States, and a number of players competing domestically in Europe's top women's professional league, the Swedish SDHL.
Team Finland:Another serious Bronze Medal contender is Team Finland. The strength of their team, in my opinion, are the forwards, highlighted by PWHL stars
Michelle Karvinen of the Vancouver Goldeneyes and
Susanna Tapani from the Boston Fleet. In her 2.5 seasons in Boston Tapani has been one of the team's leading scorers with a combined 19 goals and 20 assists, and I love the way she skates - more upright than most - because it reminds me of how I used to skate... except much more gracefully. In addition to the PWHLers on their roster, the Finnish team has a number of NCAA players and quality SDHL players on the front end. Of all the teams not named Team USA and Team Canada, the Finns may have the deepest roster of forwards capable of running four lines without much dropoff.
The back end, however, could be Team Finland's Achilles Heel. They have the ageless
Jenni Hiirikoski for one more Olympic go-around,
Ronja Savolainen from the Ottawa Charge, and a really high end college player in
Nelli Laitinen (Minnesota - NCAA), but beyond that depth could be a problem. The top two defensive pairs will probably see a ton of ice time.
Team Czechia:Another favorite to compete for the Bronze Medal is Team Czechia, who has been trending upwards of late in the pecking order of women's international hockey, both at the senior and junior levels. Compared to Team Finland I would say Finland probably has a bit more depth in quality, especially in terms of their forwards, but Czechia probably has a couple slightly higher end scorers.
Czech PWHLers that should make their top lines competitive even with the Americans and Canadians include
Katerina Mrazova (Ottawa Charge),
Natalie Mlynkova (Montreal Victoire),
Denisa Krizova (Minnesota Frost), and
Tereza Vanisova (Vancouver Goldeneyes).
The best player on Team Czechia, however, is New York Sirens rookie and former Colgate (NCAA) standout
Kristyna Kaltounkova. In half a season in the PWHL she's already established herself as one of the league's top scorers, with 11 goals and 1 assist in 16 games, and is a beast in front of the net. I had the good fortune of getting to see her play in person back in December for the PWHL Takeover Tour game between the New York Sirens and Seattle Torrent at the American Airlines Center.
Team Switzerland:The last of the teams with a credible shot at competing for the Bronze Medal is Team Switzerland, which I would put below Sweden, Finland, and Czechia in the pecking order of contenders.
Overall I'm less familiar with Teams Switzerland than the other three teams, as almost all of their Olympians play in Europe. I believe their goalie,
Andrea Brandli, is pretty good, and of course their star player is the Boston Fleet's
Alina Muller, who will have to have a big tournament for Team Switzerland to compete for a medal, having scored 14 goals and tallied 30 assists in 2.5 seasons of play in the PWHL.
The Rest of the Teams:I know little to nothing about the rest of the teams and they're not that relevant anyway.
Predictions:In part because it's what I really think, and in part because I'm a fan, I'm picking Team USA to win the Gold Medal over Team Canada, who will win Silver. I'm not overly confident in this pick as the teams are essentially even in terms of quality, but I give the slight edge to the Americans. If I were to put a percentage on it I'd say 54% Team USA wins gold, 45% Team Canada wins gold, and <1% for the rest of the field.
As far as the Bronze Medal goes, I'm going with Team Czechia over Team Finland in the Bronze Medal game, with Team Sweden losing a close game to either the Finns or the Czechs in the quarterfinals.