You're right, they're not down but they are not a team that A&M would normally even dream about losing to...though this year it may be a tough match.
Tulsa was blanked at home recently by a pretty low-ranked Arkansas team. Granted, Arkansas is underrated and underranked (they had match points against Texas and ended up losing the last 3 singles matches to lose 4-3), but still if an Arkansas team ranked in the mid 40s (albeit, one that might end up in the top 25) can shut them out at home, then typically we would be able to do the same.
I'm agreed with your evaluation of the Tulsa team Cory -- the Spaniard is good, but Jerry should handle him with ease. We're in big trouble (as usual, it seems) at 2-4. Aside from the guys you've mentioned, they've got the Polish guy (I can't remember his name) that they play anywhere from 2-4 who is pretty salty as well. They're not trotting anything too impressive out there at 5 and 6. They've been playing a freshman, Cunningham, in both of those spots and he's got a big serve and big groundies but moves like a tree sloth and would be a great matchup for Nallon or anyone else that can keep the ball in play and move him.
I think you're right though, the doubles will be key, as I can definitely see us splitting the singles with them. A lot of pressure will be on Cass as Cory is right, this Tulsa team is probably a bubble NCAA tournament team and a loss to them would be pretty telling of where this season might go.