If you are given the choice between a guaranteed $1MM and a 50% chance at $100MM, which do you go with and why?

I'd take the chance at the $100MM. $1MM (even tax free) mostly just speeds up my retirement calendar and doesn't make a huge difference in my current day to day. But $100MM would permanently and immediately alter my life.

Does your answer change if you had to give up $1MM (or take on enough debt to do so) to try for the $100MM?

definitely take the guarantee.

take the million and play scratch offs for the rest of my days.

road goes on forever and the party never ends

I would take the chance on the $100m.

I'm taking the $1M and retiring

I can find someone to pay me $20 million for the chance at getting a coin flip for $100 million.

I'm surprised how many people would take the $1M. The value of the 50/50 is so high as to make this obvious. If the 50/50 was $10M or less it becomes more of a conversation.

$1M bolsters one's financial security, but is not life-changing.

NoahAg said:

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Scotts Tot said:

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I'm surprised how many people would take the $1M. The value of the 50/50 is so high as to make this obvious. If the 50/50 was $10M or less it becomes more of a conversation.

$1M bolsters one's financial security, but is not life-changing.

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That's absurd to say $1MM isn't life changing. If you have $10MM already, maybe it's not. But if you have <$1MM it absolutely is.

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I think a million is life-changing for many people, but it's not a seismic shift in your way of life like $100M would be.

With a cool million handed to me in my forties, I'd be pretty set for retirement down the road. With a cool hundred million handed to me, I'd be set for retirement and a life of leisure immediately.

I'd take the 50% shot and sell shares in the 100 m.

Yeah, I get it. But $1MM in hand = quitting my day job = life changed.

NoahAg said:

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Yeah, I get it. But $1MM in hand = quitting my day job = life changed.

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I'm close-ish to retirement. I could retire with some money from my job. I don't need life-changing. I need comfort in the life I already have

NoahAg said:

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Yeah, I get it. But $1MM in hand = quitting my day job = life changed.

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You would quit your job if you won a million?

I think I would need at least $3m in cash before walking away (not including what's already in retirement). Healthcare alone is the reason I probably won't retire too early.

Taking the $1MM; my luck on 50/50 is never good.

Any T/F test I ever took is proof that 50/50 odds are never in my favor.

LandArchSA said:

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What if you had 30 days to spend $30 million with the chance to then get $300 million? But you couldn't tell anybody and at 30 days the only assets you could own are what you started with.

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Once again i am begging for a remake of this movie but with Kenny Powers and Reg Mackworthy instead of Monty Brewster and Spike Nolan.

$1M sets you up for a few years. $100MM sets you and your kids up for their lifetimes. It's not even close.

And anyone who thinks $1MM will drastically change their life will likely blow that money.

NoahAg said:

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Scotts Tot said:

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I'm surprised how many people would take the $1M. The value of the 50/50 is so high as to make this obvious. If the 50/50 was $10M or less it becomes more of a conversation.

$1M bolsters one's financial security, but is not life-changing.

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That's absurd to say $1MM isn't life changing. If you have $10MM already, maybe it's not. But if you have <$1MM it absolutely is.

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Two chicks at the same time is life-changing. If you already had $10MM, then you have already probably done two chicks at the same time.

I would just take the $1MM and do nothing. I would relax... I would sit on my ass all day... I would do nothing.

JMac03 said:

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NoahAg said:

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Yeah, I get it. But $1MM in hand = quitting my day job = life changed.

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You would quit your job if you won a million?

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Quit my day job, yes. I've often said if received a $1MM windfall I'd quit my job and cut grass for a living.

With my savings, retirement, and property I can put $1MM to work and be ok.

NoahAg said:

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Scotts Tot said:

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I'm surprised how many people would take the $1M. The value of the 50/50 is so high as to make this obvious. If the 50/50 was $10M or less it becomes more of a conversation.

$1M bolsters one's financial security, but is not life-changing.

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That's absurd to say $1MM isn't life changing. If you have $10MM already, maybe it's not. But if you have <$1MM it absolutely is.

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Ok it's life changing in the sense that for someone who is a long way from securing a solid retirement, it helps them get there faster. But for a financially responsible person, it probably doesn't drastically alter their course, other than to shift their retirement timing.

If a person has minimal assets, the $1M gives them a boost in building wealth for retirement, but is nowhere near enough to quit on the spot. Even at an aggressive withdrawal rate of 4%, you're talking about $40k/year of expenses. That is a meager living.

On the other hand, for a person with considerable assets, say over $5M, the extra $1M gets rolled into their investment account and they probably don't notice it all that much, other than to make retirement a little more comfortable.

I'd take the 50% chance at $100M rather than a guaranteed $1M.

I probably wouldn't bet $1M for just a 1 time 50% chance at $100M, but would consider it if I had multiple chances (until I won) or could find someone to spot the $1M the 1st time.

I'm already past my target # for retirement, so would take the 50% shot at the big bucks that change the game entirely.

Would I give up $1MM of my own money for a 50/50 shot at $100M? The math says do it.

If I hit I win big and have more money than I know what to do with. One less thing.

If I miss that means an extra 10-15 years of working. I'd still hit my retirement goal in my 60s though.

I think I would go for it!