I've seen several theories and even propagated a few on here including
- the Rex and Marshall are twins theory
- the it's all faked and it is a show within a show theory
- Glen is really Ben theories
- the Moriarty theories about some mastermind since S1
Well this is one theory I just read that makes mine seem incomplete. I've never seen a breakdown like this in so much detail. I'm not saying it is right but damn it is well thought out and covers nearly everything except some possible lingering theories since S1 that are probably not resolved until the final season.
I just want to applaud this - right or wrong it is just WOW......and I do think it has a lot of merit. It ties together so many things that we just have snippets of.
At this point I don't think anything is a spoiler - it's all just speculation anyway.
BUT DONT READ ANY FURTHER IF YOU DONT WANT TO POSSIBLY BE SPOILED
DISCLAIMER THIS IS NOT MY THEORY!!!!! it comes from Reddit Only Murders board.
Fixed spoiler tags after 11 edits - they don't like special characters inline sometimes
Unresolved Season 4 Clues and Questions
Before revealing the detailed theory of what we will learn in episode 10, here are all the season 4 clues and questions that are still unresolved. This list does not include any unresolved clues from prior seasons because I don't think they will be resolved in episode 10
-Who put the tea kettle on in Charles' apartment the night of Sazz's murder?
-What did Mabel demand in exchange for her life rights?
-Who was in Sazz's apartment?
-What is the meaning of 11 13 26? 14? 86? written on a note on Sazz's desk?
-Who called the front desk and asked that a hole in Charles' window be repaired?
-According to Jan, Sazz thought someone had eyes on Charles; who?
-According to Jan, Sazz thought there might be another murder in the building; is this correct? if so, who?
-Who banged on the door of Dudenoff's apartment when the trio was in there?
-Who typed in the code to Dudenoff's apartment immediately after that?
-Did Sazz intend to write TAP IN or something else?
-What was Rudy doing when the shot went off?
-Is Rudy a hunter?
-Who wrote the weird Es on Rudy's abs?
-Why is the FBI involved?
-How did the bartender recognize the trio as podcasters when the trio went to Concussions?
-What career was Sazz transitioning into?
-What was the difficult relationship Sazz wanted to get away from?
-During Sazz's funeral, who put the real bottle in with the breakaways?
-Whose pistol was at Sazz's trampoline academy?
-What happened to the sixth round in the pistol?
-What does the forensics report on the pistol reveal?
-Does Marshall actually have an alibi?
-Did the pig cam yield any useful footage?
-Who planted the 720k camera in Oliver's apartment?
-Who has been spying on Oliver, Mabel, and Charles?
-Who sent the text I'M WATCHING YOU?
-How did the bartender know that Glen had been shot and was in the hospital?
-Who is Nicky "the Neck" Caccimelio?
-Where is Caccimelio?
Final Season 4 Theory
-Sazz was transitioning into both a screenwriting career and operating her trampoline park
-When Sazz was writing her OMITB script, she added in some "tells"dialog or events that were either intentionally wrong, or things that happened but were not included in the podcast and only Sazz knew about. She did this so if anyone stole her script, she could prove it was plagiarized and not based on the podcast.
-Marshall copied Sazz's script, and Sazz went through her script, writing down each page containing a tell, and going through Marshall's script and crossing off her list of all the tells he copied from her script. This is what the note on Sazz's desk stating 11 13 26? 14? 86? means.
-Either by finding the tells in Marshall's script or some other way, Sazz learned that Marshall stole her script and sold it to Paramount
-Sazz first confronted Marshall and asked him to do the right thing
-Marshall refused to do the right thing
-So, Sazz decided she needed to contact the studio to tell them that she was the real author of the OMITB screenplay
-Marshall was the difficult relationship Sazz wanted to get out of. Alternatively, Sazz wanted to stop dealing with Caccimelio (see below).
-Marshall had frequented Concussions, where he got to know the bartender and Maggie
-The bartender's name is Nicky "The Neck" Caccimelio, the Dry-Cleaning King of Brooklyn. Operating out of the bar, he oversees a dry-cleaning company that cleans up crime scenes for the Caputo crime family. This front gives the dry-cleaning crew access to buildings and allows them to remove bodies without arousing suspicion.
-The reason that Mabel was fixated on the news report about Caccimelio is because she recognized the dry-cleaning van from the Arconia, where it often goes to pick up dry cleaning (including Charles' and Oliver's).
-Everyone at Concussions knew that Caccimelio had mob ties
-Sazz funded the trampoline camp in Paradise, NJ with funding from Caccimelio and/or the Caputo crime family
-Caccimelio would take people to Paradise and kill them and bury their bodies, unbeknownst to Sazz
-The pistol Bev found belonged to Caccimelio and will be traced to a previously unsolved murder
-Either Sazz found out that Caccimelio was dumping bodies in Paradise, NJ, or there was some problem with paying back the money that funded the trampoline park, or (less likely) Sazz was writing a new screenplay about Caccimelio, which Marshall may have found out about and told Caccimelio. Around the same time, Caccimelio may have learned that Marshall and Sazz were in a dispute and may have approached Marshall to work together to kill Sazz.
-Alternatively, Sazz may have been unaware that Maggie had a connection to Caccimelio and talked about wanted to get out of her business relationship with Caccimelio to Maggie. Maggie told Caccimelio and Caccimelio decided he needs to kill Sazz.
-The FBI is on the case because they know the mafia was involved. Except in limited circumstances (e.g., killings of state law enforcement officers, violent crimes against interstate travelers, and serial killers (yeah, I know; see the next line)), the FBI does not investigate state crimes such as murder. It does, of course, investigate RICO (Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations Stature), which sometimes involves attempted murder or conspiracy to commit murder as part of a RICO conspiracy, or transporting bodies across state lines, or financial fraud (in legal parlance, a "predicate act")
-Alternatively, the FBI is investigating a serial killer who will be revealed in episode 5
-Marshall worked with Caccimelio and Maggie (potentially a mob assassin, operative, or cleaner) to kill Sazz, and probably some others from Caccimelio's gang. Marshall probably pulled the trigger (although Maggie's name does line up with the method of murder because Sazz was shot with a single 300 win MAG cartridge).
-The reason Caccimelio recognized the podcasters immediately when they visited Concussions is that Caccimelio was either directly or indirectly involved with Sazz's assassination and learned about the podcasters then
-Marshall wore Sazz's father's fire vest when he shot Sazz, wore Ron-Ron's shoes, and fired the rifle from the Dudenoff apartment. He was wearing the fire vest because he knew he would have to put Sazz's body into the incinerator chute or perhaps more likely, turn on the incinerator after Sazz's body fell from the incinerator chute on Charles' floor to the incinerator. Marshall was fit enough to race through the Arconia tunnels or even through the 28 flights of stairs, although he probably didn't need to because there were others involved and all he needed to do was go to the basement, confirm Sazz's body made it from the incinerator chute on Charles' floor, and turn on the incinerator.
-This is the way the murder worked: one person (probably Marshall; maybe Maggie) shot Sazz, one or more people from Caccimelio's crew cleaned up the crime scene, one or more people put Sazz's body into Charle's suit bag and wheeled it out on a cart with other suit bags to the incinerator chute, and Marshall turned on the incinerator.
-Sazz had written TAP IN because she intended to write TAP IN APT. She was telling Charles that she had planted a camera or cameras in his apartment. She had installed the camera in Charles' apartment (and perhaps some in Oliver's apartment) to keep tabs on Charles and protect him.
-Someone from the Caccimelio crew may have been left behind when the trio came into Charles' apartment. If so, that person put on a tea kettle when Charles was asleep to mask the whistling sound of the bullet hole.
-Either Marshall or Caccimelio or Maggie has Sazz's phone. Probably Marshall.
-Marshall discovered the camera in Charles' apartment that Sazz had installed because the camera is connected to an app on her phone. Using this app, he started peeping on Charles (get it? Marshall P. Pope, pronounced PEEPope?).
-When Marshall heard that Charles was ambivalent about going to Hollywood, he texted Charles, pretending to be Sazz, and said she was doubling for Bakula in L.A.
-Either Marshall or Caccimelio called the front desk, pretending to be Charles, and asked them to have his window fixed (I used to think the murderer wrote a note but someone showed a screenshot of the murder board which seems to show a note from the front desk fielding a phone call).
-Marshall went to Sazz's apartment to spy on the trio. At the party, he overheard them saying that they would pay a visit to Sazz's apartment, and went to Sazz's apartment to steal incriminating evidence, but the trio showed up almost immediately.
-At Sazz's funeral, Caccimelio added a real bottle because he wanted Charles to die. He wanted it to look like an accident
-When Glen Stubbins recognized Marshall, Marshall panicked because he thought if his true identity (Rex Bailey) were revealed, the trio would know that he was involved in Sazz's murder.
-Marshall consulted with Caccimelio. Either Marshall, Caccimelio, or Maggie shot Glen in the head.
-Marshall sent the trio video clips of them being watched and the I'M WATCHING YOU. text. Marshall never saw the original I'M WATCHING YOU. note. But he heard about it on the podcast, or it's in Sazz's OMITB screenplay, or both. He's mimicking the note, but he was not the author of the note because in 2021 he was an innocent aspiring screenwriter.
-Although it hasn't been shown yet, we will learn that Caccimelio disappeared from Concussions and his other usual haunts around the time that episode 9 took place, either because he knew the FBI was closing in on him or he was worried that the trio was going to discover who he is and learn about his connection to Sazz.
-Caccimelio personally went to the hospital to kill Glen. The reason that Caccimelio knew that Glen had been shot was because Caccimelio either did the shooting himself or was involved in planning and/or ordering it.
-Uncharacteristically, Caccimelio brought with him a bouquet of flowers. (The bartender doesn't seem like the dainty type; see his reaction to Charles' and Oliver's drink orders.) Caccimelio brought the flowers because he was playing the part of a nice guy visiting a friend or family member in the hospital and didn't want to look conspicuous.
-When Caccimelio arrived at the hospital, he saw the trio and realized he couldn't kill Glen while they were there, or even after they left because they had already spotted him. If he were to kill Glen after being spotted by the trio, the trio would know it was the bartender who killed Glen. So, Caccimelio walked up to the trio, pretended to be helpful in their investigation, and revealed that he knew Glen is in a coma. (This is another red flag because how would he even know Glen was at the hospital if the hospital's only contact for Glen was Sazz?) It will be revealed in episode 10 that Caccimelio had someone follow the ambulance that took Glen to the hospital, or Marshall spied on the trio, learned which hospital Glen was at and his condition, and told Caccimelio.
-At the hospital, in response to the trio's questions, Caccimelio gave them limited accurate information about Sazz's protg, but also falsely claimed that he didn't know Rex Bailey or that Rex Bailey was Sazz's protg. (If you think about it, this is absurd because if Rex hadn't visited Concussions, which he probably did, at the very least
-Rex had been a frequent topic of conservation at Concussions (just as he was talked about during Sazz's funeral).) Caccimelio was doing this because he didn't want the trio to figure out too quickly or ever that Rex was Marshall (not knowing that Ron-Ron and Ollie were buddies).
-Unable to go back to the hospital himself, Caccimelio sent Marshall to kill Glen.
In episode 10, the trio will finally check Marshall's alibi and find that there is no YouTube video of his purported stand up on the night of the murder, or the date on the video won't line up
-Marshall may go to jail before the wedding (or even die, or die on his way to jail, a la Jack Ruby shooting Lee Harvey Oswald), seemingly solving the mysteries of season 4. But the trio, or at least Mabel, will be bothered by some additional, unsolved questions.
-Mabel will remember the news report about Caccimelio and realize that she recognized the dry-cleaning van from its visits to the Arconia. Detective Williams will probably tell Mabel that the pistol has been traced to Caccimelio or the forensics will show a match between the pistol and a bullet lodged in a corpse buried in Paradise, New Jersey. The trio may also see a photo of Caccimelio in the news or in a newspaper and realize that Caccimelio is the bartender at Concussions. Perhaps the pig cam also has relevant footage.
-Jan will make another appearance and save Charles from being killed by Caccimelio. Jan will be apprehended and sent back to jail. Alternatively, Jan will save Mabel or the other members of the trio from Marshall.
-Another possibility: the FBI/NYPD swoops in at the last minute to save the trio from Marshall or Caccimelio.
I have no idea who will be killed at the end of episode 10, but it won't be Loretta.
Season 4 Clues & Questions Not Addressed by This Theory
This theory explains almost everything. The only clues/questions from season 4 that it does not address are:
-What did Mabel demand in exchange for her life rights?
-Who banged on the door of Dudenoff's apartment when the trio was in there?
-Who typed in the code to Dudenoff's apartment immediately after that?
-What was Rudy doing when the shot went off?
-Is Rudy a hunter?
Bonus Season 5 Prediction
In season 5, the weird Es on Rudy's abs will be connected to the person in season 1 who poisoned Winnie and left the END THE PODCAST note (and the envelope with Sazz's per diem). It will either be Rudy or someone close enough to Rudy to write on his abs.