Hank the Grifter said:

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Without even reading your list my answer is Buddy Holly. He was so far ahead of his time. He would have been an absolute legend.

And no offense to The Big Bopper or his family but thank God Waylon lost that coin flip.

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The coin flip was between Ritchie Valens and Tommy Allsup. Jennings gave up his seat on the plane because the Big Bopper had the flu.

You're right.
My point still stands.

Captain Winky said:

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How is Freddy Mercury not on that list, but 2Pac and Biggie are?

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Exactly. Or Prince.

OP drew the line at 40. Prince was damn near 60 and Mercury was over age 40 I'm pretty sure

Captain Winky said:

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How is Freddy Mercury not on that list, but 2Pac and Biggie are?

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Well he was 45 but as I said include anyone you want.

If I had to pick one, it would be Bonham. I think his death just crushed the other members. If they all would have remained living, I believe that they likely would not have soldiered on as they had in the early in mid-70's. But neither would they have let the magic that they had fizzle out and would have become even bigger with a broader younger generation. Close second would be RVZ and Gaines.

On a personal level some influential characters I have not seen mentioned, that I would have been much interested in seeing how they progressed would be (and it shows my penchant for the Glam scene):

Brian Connally from Sweet. He didn't die outright but the beating that he took changed the band forever and eventually was a root cause of his death. Without that incident I think The Sweet has a much bigger presence in the States.

Steve Marriott (Small Faces & Humble Pie): Very talented musician, very creative and truly underrated and overlooked. Difficult dude, but really talented.

Mark Bolan: Many credit him with starting the Glam genre which later influenced so much of the metal and hair bands. Great performer and very talented as well.

Zeppelin is my favorite band, and Bonham is my favorite drummer, except when I'm in a Rush mood...

That said, if we could somehow intervene to where Bonham didn't drink himself to death that particular day, there was always the next day or the next where he could have done it again. And, my favorite band was in trouble at that point in time. Bonham's drinking and Page's heroin made In Through The Out Door largely a Plant/Jones product. I don't think the group would have survived much longer without major interventions/rehab, even had Bonham lived thru that day. Erase the tragedy, and we might still not get another significant (if any at all) Zeppelin album.

On the other hand, SRV (my favorite guitar player) had just cleaned up his act. He put out a Grammy winning album as his last one, plus the bonus Family Style album, which was at least fun and... bonus! I cried the day SRV died, because of all the music we missed. Erase THIS tragedy, and I think there would be TONS of stuff we'd be cherishing today. SRV is my pick here every day of the week, and twice on Sundays!

If I got a bonus pick, i'd chose Buddy Holly.