The asteroid 2024 YR4 impact probability has now gone down to 1.5% from 3.1%
link

I predict as we get more info about its orbit we will see that percentage rise and then drop.

How big is this one again? Last few articles haven't said.

Edit: nevermind found it. "Currently the asteroid is estimated to be 130-300 feet across"

Just a little too big to fit in a starship...

Sea Speed said:

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I predict as we get more info about its orbit we will see that percentage rise and then drop.

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Yeah that 99% how it will go and maybe already went if it's down to 1.5%

PJYoung said:

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Sea Speed said:

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I predict as we get more info about its orbit we will see that percentage rise and then drop.

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Yeah that 99% how it will go and maybe already went if it's down to 1.5%

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+1. I would not even pay attention to any of the reports before its next fly by in a couple years. At that point we will gain a bunch more information.

Per an FAA advisory, SpaceX is targeting NET next week for Starship Flight 8.

Primary Date: Feb. 26th
Backup Dates: Feb 27th - March 6th
Daily window between 5:30 PM - 19:09 CST.https://t.co/2oxtLYqPWG@NASASpaceflight pic.twitter.com/m9bjgDHovi

— Jay Keegan (@_jaykeegan_) February 20, 2025

26th.

Caliber said:

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PJYoung said:

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Sea Speed said:

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I predict as we get more info about its orbit we will see that percentage rise and then drop.

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Yeah that 99% how it will go and maybe already went if it's down to 1.5%

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+1. I would not even pay attention to any of the reports before its next fly by in a couple years. At that point we will gain a bunch more information.

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So here's the issue with that. It has an orbital period of 4 years, so it's coming back in 2028 and then the possible impact in 2032. If you don't know the orbit until 2028 and you discover then it's going to hit in 2032 you have about 2 years to plan to do something. Realistically for Homo Habilis that's not enough time to get our **** together and do doodly squat.

I'm not saying it's anything to worry about. But if it were, waiting until 2028 to determine the answers is realistically pushing it too late.

LFG!

Mathguy64 said:

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Caliber said:

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PJYoung said:

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Sea Speed said:

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I predict as we get more info about its orbit we will see that percentage rise and then drop.

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Yeah that 99% how it will go and maybe already went if it's down to 1.5%

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+1. I would not even pay attention to any of the reports before its next fly by in a couple years. At that point we will gain a bunch more information.

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So here's the issue with that. It has an orbital period of 4 years, so it's coming back in 2028 and then the possible impact in 2032. If you don't know the orbit until 2028 and you discover then it's going to hit in 2032 you have about 2 years to plan to do something. Realistically for Homo Habilis that's not enough time to get our **** together and do doodly squat.

I'm not saying it's anything to worry about. But if it were, waiting until 2028 to determine the answers is realistically pushing it too late.

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I don't work in the space industry and neither do 98% of the posters on this thread. So, I stand by my statement. Worrying over small fluctuations in chance aren't worth spending time on, unless there is an action you can take to help with it or otherwise plan for.

nortex97 said:

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Per an FAA advisory, SpaceX is targeting NET next week for Starship Flight 8.

Primary Date: Feb. 26th
Backup Dates: Feb 27th - March 6th
Daily window between 5:30 PM - 19:09 CST.https://t.co/2oxtLYqPWG@NASASpaceflight pic.twitter.com/m9bjgDHovi

— Jay Keegan (@_jaykeegan_) February 20, 2025

26th.

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I've been sitting offshore corpus for a month and they decide to launch the day I am going to leave.

Sea Speed said:

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nortex97 said:

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Per an FAA advisory, SpaceX is targeting NET next week for Starship Flight 8.

Primary Date: Feb. 26th
Backup Dates: Feb 27th - March 6th
Daily window between 5:30 PM - 19:09 CST.https://t.co/2oxtLYqPWG@NASASpaceflight pic.twitter.com/m9bjgDHovi

— Jay Keegan (@_jaykeegan_) February 20, 2025

26th.

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I've been sitting offshore corpus for a month and they decide to launch the day I am going to leave.

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Ha. I'm flying back into town on the 26th and then leaving again so my only chance will be the 27th.

I've made 4 of the 7 so far.

Love that dude on Twitter.

Tangential but newsy given this is adjacent to the players in space flight. This seems like a pretty cool move by Elon if true.

ETA: Given the quote by the Boeing CEO I assume it's true but didn't verify otherwise...

NEWS: Boeing is getting help from @elonmusk to get through the requirements of the long-delayed Air Force One program, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said today.

"Elon Musk is actually helping us a lot in working through the requirements ...so that we can move faster and get the… pic.twitter.com/2XXkMRduHf

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) February 20, 2025

How fun must it be to be the President's fixer. Walk into a program and just cut through all the bureaucracy and start making smart technical decisions.

Too bad Elon has a conflict of interest that precludes doing this at NASA.

Video indicates Boeing had said they would push the original 2026/27 deliveries to 2029, and are expecting to lose $1 Billion on the pair.

lb3 said:

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How fun must it be to be the President's fixer. Walk into a program and just cut through all the bureaucracy and start making smart technical decisions.

Too bad Elon has a conflict of interest that precludes doing this at NASA.

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Well there will be Jared Isaacman one of these days

will25u said:

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It is time to begin preparations for deorbiting the @Space_Station.

It has served its purpose. There is very little incremental utility.

Let’s go to Mars.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 20, 2025

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It may be true that the ISS has served its purpose, but he is clearly speaking on behalf of SpaceX while working in the Trump administration.

IM-2 encapsulated along with a few other rideshares! Multi-day launch window opens Feb 26.

https://www.intuitivemachines.com/post/intuitive-machines-im-2-mission-lunar-lander-encapsulated-and-scheduled-for-launch

The parabola was not as steep as I thought it might be.

New data gathered last night (Feb. 19-20) dropped the December 2032 impact odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 to 0.28%. Monitoring continues. https://t.co/LuRwg1eaCv https://t.co/O4NnL4PaTf

— NASA (@NASA) February 20, 2025

aTmAg said:

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TexAgs91 said:

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will25u said:

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It is time to begin preparations for deorbiting the @Space_Station.

It has served its purpose. There is very little incremental utility.

Let’s go to Mars.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 20, 2025

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It may be true that the ISS has served its purpose, but he is clearly speaking on behalf of SpaceX while working in the Trump administration.

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His mission to Mars is self funded. If he was arguing for government to give him funding, then that would be a problem.

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I know SpaceX will go to Mars with or without NASA. But when they do go, NASA will certainly want to get involved ("slow down so I can lead you"), and will throw some money towards SpaceX to make it look like they are "leading" the mission.

Quote:

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It makes no sense to declare ISS (or especially SLS) off limits merely because Musk owns a space company.

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strawman comment...

NASAg03 said:

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IM-2 encapsulated along with a few other rideshares! Multi-day launch window opens Feb 26.

https://www.intuitivemachines.com/post/intuitive-machines-im-2-mission-lunar-lander-encapsulated-and-scheduled-for-launch

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Looks like Starship could possibly be launching about 45 mins before IM-2?

Sea Speed said:

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The parabola was not as steep as I thought it might be.

New data gathered last night (Feb. 19-20) dropped the December 2032 impact odds of asteroid 2024 YR4 to 0.28%. Monitoring continues. https://t.co/LuRwg1eaCv https://t.co/O4NnL4PaTf

— NASA (@NASA) February 20, 2025

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Truth be told the odds are 0.000% or 100.000% Every number between is ust our best guess.

TexAgs91 said:

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will25u said:

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It is time to begin preparations for deorbiting the @Space_Station.

It has served its purpose. There is very little incremental utility.

Let’s go to Mars.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 20, 2025

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It may be true that the ISS has served its purpose, but he is clearly speaking on behalf of SpaceX while working in the Trump administration.

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Well he also owns (or is contracted to build) the Dragon capsule that will dock with ISS and perform the de-orbit burn.

RED AG 98 said:

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Tangential but newsy given this is adjacent to the players in space flight. This seems like a pretty cool move by Elon if true.

ETA: Given the quote by the Boeing CEO I assume it's true but didn't verify otherwise...

NEWS: Boeing is getting help from @elonmusk to get through the requirements of the long-delayed Air Force One program, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said today.

"Elon Musk is actually helping us a lot in working through the requirements ...so that we can move faster and get the… pic.twitter.com/2XXkMRduHf

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) February 20, 2025

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I just hope Trump doesn't try to reinstate that goofy ass livery (pictured) he wanted in his first term. I suspect he will though.

Sea Speed said:

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Lol Elon calling ex commander of ISS ******ed. This timeline is insane.

You are fully retarded.

SpaceX could have brought them back several months ago.

I OFFERED THIS DIRECTLY to the Biden administration and they refused.

Return WAS pushed back for political reasons.

Idiot.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 20, 2025

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Like I saw on X, "I am going to go with the guy that builds the rockets and lands them back on earth..."

TexAgs91 said:

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will25u said:

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It is time to begin preparations for deorbiting the @Space_Station.

It has served its purpose. There is very little incremental utility.

Let’s go to Mars.

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) February 20, 2025

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It may be true that the ISS has served its purpose, but he is clearly speaking on behalf of SpaceX while working in the Trump administration.

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SpaceX makes good money shuttling cargo and crew to and from the ISS. He gains nothing financially by encouraging them to shut it down and deorbit it.

ISS has uses but I think the time has come to start over. Maybe newer modules are worth saving so there might be some kind of upgrade path, but I would guess everything is very purpose-built for a particular standard/compatibility and the cost of keeping it aloft/intact/repaired is going to keep increasing.

I'm okay with it, as long as Elon is okay being called emotionally ******ed

double aught said:

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RED AG 98 said:

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Tangential but newsy given this is adjacent to the players in space flight. This seems like a pretty cool move by Elon if true.

ETA: Given the quote by the Boeing CEO I assume it's true but didn't verify otherwise...

NEWS: Boeing is getting help from @elonmusk to get through the requirements of the long-delayed Air Force One program, Boeing CEO Kelly Ortberg said today.

"Elon Musk is actually helping us a lot in working through the requirements ...so that we can move faster and get the… pic.twitter.com/2XXkMRduHf

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) February 20, 2025

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I just hope Trump doesn't try to reinstate that goofy ass livery (pictured) he wanted in his first term. I suspect he will though.

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Meh... I like the Navy and dark Red livery. Nothing per-se wrong with the JFK era livery, but I like the change.