Agreed, my main point in saying that was I think the polls are probably somewhat accurate in this race just due to candidate quality ( not that Fetterman is a great choice either for the Dems )

Way too soon to do so. The voters may nationalize the Senate election to oust Schumer as they did in 2014 to oust Reid. That won't show up till late October if trending that way since all elections are local until such a switch happens.

We are some months from November yet. This bill they just passed and the various expansions--- we will have to see what the reaction to it is as more becomes known. Not to mention the economic ----- those are the kind of things that nationalize elections, and they can do it in mere weeks. Fall 2008 shows that pattern.

It will get much more competitive after Labor Day!! Oz will be fine

LegalDrugPusher said:

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It will get much more competitive after Labor Day!! Oz will be fine

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Is this because people start caring more, or some other factor that improves?

titan said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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It will get much more competitive after Labor Day!! Oz will be fine

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Is this because people start caring more, or some other factor that improves?

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People just not caring. It's typical for most election years. Summer mode is still in process and most people are not clued into the elections yet nor care

aggie93 said:

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I didn't like Oz being the candidate but I don't think this is anything close to over. Oz is traveling the state very aggressively and Fetterman looks terrible and is basically in hiding. It's going to come down to the late momentum as we get to November.

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...And Trump was packing stadiums in 2020 while Biden was frail and hiding in his basement.

Trump must have had the same stink Oz has because Bilden won with 81 million. Right?

Georgia and Penn are likely gone.

Questions remain on Arizona and Wisconsin.

Walker has a pretty good shot and is the favorite imho in Georgia.

Ohio is looking better for the GOP.

Penn is meh, but could get close late because both candidates are so terrible.

And the overestimations almost always go in one direction. Senate aggregates overstated Dem support in 14 of 15 senate toss ups 2018-2020.

The polling industry is bad. You are just reliant on it to be relevant.

— Bonchie (@bonchieredstate) August 19, 2022

The Northeast is lost.

aggie93 said:

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It's going to come down to the late momentum as we get to November.

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"Momentum" gets referenced all the time by politicos and the media for elections. Is there really such a thing? It comes down to individual decisions, so how does a candidate gaining more individuals last week mean they gain still more this week?

LegalDrugPusher said:

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It will get much more competitive after Labor Day!! Oz will be fine

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You were also constantly telling us how Trump would win 2020.

IDaggie06 said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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It will get much more competitive after Labor Day!! Oz will be fine

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You were also constantly telling us how Trump would win 2020.

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Yep, if you've followed politics long enough your gut is a pretty good indicator. Oz is a bad candidate, so he'll lose in a competitive state. Walker is a bad candidate, so he'll lose in a competitive state.

Could both those candidates win? Sure anything can happen, but it's not likely since both of them are so bad from a quality perspective.

I liked that maga lady that emerged late in the R primaries in PA, but oh well.

I watched Tucker last night agree that Oz is not the strongest candidate, but he also railed on how weak Fetterman is for the Dems. With how horrible Dem policies are and the state of this union and the gas drilling jobs that have left PA, and the crime, inflation, etc., it shouldn't matter- Fetterman has no business winning a fair election in that state just like Biden didn't carry that state two years ago. Oz needs to focus on the right messages and take care of business. Pennsylvanians don't actually want globalist and elitist special interests always taking priority. They don't want socialism. They don't want higher taxes and more big gov spending during inflation.

Unfortunately for the country, PA is making sure their election is "fortified" again. Mass mail outs of ballots to insecure unreliable rolls, mass quantities of insecure drop boxes, and all the usual shenanigans with local poll workers and observers in the urban areas are expected again.

R's are probably going to have to win seats elsewhere.

aggie93 said:

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I didn't like Oz being the candidate but I don't think this is anything close to over. Oz is traveling the state very aggressively and Fetterman looks terrible and is basically in hiding. It's going to come down to the late momentum as we get to November.

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Fetterman has brain damage from the stroke. It's obvious and I agree it's not over.

IDaggie06 said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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It will get much more competitive after Labor Day!! Oz will be fine

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You were also constantly telling us how Trump would win 2020.

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And he did win most votes in presidential history

Top Cheney Lieutenant On J6 Committee Seeks To Sabotage GOP Chances In Missouri With Independent Senate Run https://t.co/9JbRNNKYmE

— Mollie (@MZHemingway) August 18, 2022

LegalDrugPusher said:

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IDaggie06 said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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It will get much more competitive after Labor Day!! Oz will be fine

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You were also constantly telling us how Trump would win 2020.

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And he did win most votes in presidential history

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Such a stupid argument. He did not win or he would still be president. And yes, it was predictable the democrats were going to cheat and/or do whatever it took to keep him from winning again. He only won in 2016 because they were so confident Hillary was going to win. So regardless of votes/cheating, he did not win because he is not President. Therefore you were wrong.

titan said:

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LegalDrugPusher said:

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It will get much more competitive after Labor Day!! Oz will be fine

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Is this because people start caring more, or some other factor that improves?

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I would expect the economy to worsen over the coming months as high inflation continues to hit pocketbooks. When your pocketbook is worse off, it's a good sign for the challengers.

sanangelo said:

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aggie93 said:

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I didn't like Oz being the candidate but I don't think this is anything close to over. Oz is traveling the state very aggressively and Fetterman looks terrible and is basically in hiding. It's going to come down to the late momentum as we get to November.

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...And Trump was packing stadiums in 2020 while Biden was frail and hiding in his basement.

Trump must have had the same stink Oz has because Bilden won with 81 million. Right?

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There is no comparison of Oz to Trump on any level outside of both having some celebrity. Trump was also running for re-election. 2020 was all about Trump or anti Trump. Oz vs Fetterman is not. Oz may not be a favorite but he has nowhere near the negatives Trump had, it's not like there are legions of folks who have been waiting to vote against him. BTW, Trump is NOT on the ballot and there are a lot of people who hate Trump that won't bother to vote, enthusiasm matters.

Fetterman is a very flawed candidate both in terms of health and positions. He's been an outspoken liberal going full tilt on CRT and Gender issues and of course he favors pure Socialism. He's also getting a lot of flack for being a guy who was almost 50 years old and still having Mommy and Daddy pay his bills and was only able to buy a house because his sister sold it to him for $1.

Still a lot of time and a lot that can change in this race.

Texasclipper said:

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aggie93 said:

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It's going to come down to the late momentum as we get to November.

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"Momentum" gets referenced all the time by politicos and the media for elections. Is there really such a thing? It comes down to individual decisions, so how does a candidate gaining more individuals last week mean they gain still more this week?

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Absolutely. At LEAST 10-15% of folks don't really decide typically until the last month and many aren't even paying attention until then. More than enough to swing an election either way like this. For mid terms also have a much bigger reliance on enthusiasm and who is motivated to go vote. Undecideds typically break one way or the other heavily and late.

Any state that does not have a runoff in its primaries reaps the moderate squish that ultimately catches more votes than the two or more conservative candidates running against him. Probably by design.

If people aren't motivated to go to the polls this November, I'm not sure they should be eligible to vote again. How anyone could live through Covid, inflation, taxes, socialist ideas, etc and not rush to the poll, I will never understand. At some point, we have to accept the blame ourselves. Get out and vote and more importantly, make sure others you talk to go vote, especially if you hear them complain about some of the things above. If you are going to ***** and moan about inflation, mandates, etc....VOTE. It's very dangerous to assume things will just workout the way you think. The general consensus is GOP picks up big gains in House and some in Senate....that causes too many people to stay home and hope others do their voting for them (literally in some cases).

Who else wanted to run in Pennsylvania? I am not sure if there was another name out there to run in place of Oz.

C@LAg said:

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mcconnell has essentially written the senate off as of today

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I wouldn't make much of McConnell's statement either way other than he is making a great case for why he needs to be replaced. McConnell is speaking accurately (the House is more likely to flip) and more importantly for him he is trying to lower expectations so he has less pressure. He's reading the room wrong though, Republicans want a fighter leading them. That said I don't think it really affects the individual races much, he could be helpful if he was engaged but he isn't a detractor because he is not.

The main thing is McConnell and his ilk need to go, they have not adapted. McCarthy is actually somewhat moderate politically but he understands the MAGA movement is where the base is and he isn't fighting it. That's why he came out early and loud about the FBI Raid for instance. The real question is if there will be enough MAGA Senators to have someone step up to challenge McConnell. Right now I think he still has the votes.

lcraggie said:

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Who else wanted to run in Pennsylvania? I am not sure if there was another name out there to run in place of Oz.

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Why is a "name" needed?

Barnette (preferred) would be stomping Fetterman into the ground as would McCormick.

Trump chose to back the most liberal of the three because he looks good on TV. How is that working out?