Russia/Ukraine from Another Perspective (Relaunch Part Deux)

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nortex97
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 5:37a, 1/23/25
AG
And now the NSC as well:

Quote:
During a telephone call on Jan. 22, conducted by Waltz's chief of staff, Brian McCormack, NSC employees were told that they were to leave the office immediately. They were instructed that they could return only at the request of their supervisors, senior directors appointed by the Trump administration, the WP reported.
According to the outlet, about 150 employees remained from the Biden administration, and the departure of such a large number of employees could complicate the administration's work during the transition period.
Dozens of officials sent home on Jan. 22 had been assigned to the NSC from other government agencies, including the Central Intelligence Agency, National Security Agency, the State Department, and the Pentagon.
Those interested in staying with the NSC under Trump were asked to contact the human resources department and told that the new team would review those requests, according to three officials familiar with the matter.
Winning against the Biden war mongers.
Sitrep: Russian advances on 7 key positions:
Quote:
Broader Strategic Observations
Russian advances over the past month highlight a methodical approach characterized by encirclement, resource depletion, and steady territorial gains. While operations in Toretsk and Chasov Yar underscore the challenges of urban combat and logistical constraints, progress in Pokrovsk and Kurakhovo demonstrates the effectiveness of Russia's offensive strategies.
The capture of Kurakhovo and advances toward Pokrovsk and Mirnograd could pave the way for operations extending into Dnepropetrovsk for the first time since 2022, potentially altering the strategic landscape.
As the conflict continues, the effectiveness of Russia's strategy coupled with its ability to manage logistical and operational challenges will play a decisive role. For now, the focus remains on consolidating gains, securing supply lines, and preparing for the next phase of operations.

A laughable thread summarizing Zelensky the Great's assorted insane claims with Lex Fridman in their interview this week (I've read that Lex is going to interview Putin now, but not real sure of that):
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wtmartinaggie
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:46a, 1/23/25
AG
does your graph on russian revenue in rubles account for the 20% devaluation of their currency in the last year?

or the 40% drop since 2022?

honest question.
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nortex97
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In reply to wtmartinaggie • 7:56a, 1/23/25
AG
I think it's currency rate adjusted. There are other analyses besides their own, but global commodities tend to reflect the adjusted rate (rubles:euro etc.) in year-over-year trade. But I dunno really.


(below from the bloomberg piece):
Quote:
The US and its allies have been seeking to stop the Kremlin's war machine by limiting export revenues and imposed more sanctions on Russia's energy industry and banks that service it late last year. That triggered a collapse in the ruble and depressed Russia's foreign trade in December. Exports dropped by 19% last month compared to the previous year, and imports shrank by about 8%, according to central bank data published on Tuesday.

Still, oil and gas income spiked by a third in December from the previous year and increased by 26% for 2024, according to the Finance Ministry, while other sources of revenue posted a similar advance for the full year due to taxes and dividends amid robust economic growth.

"The volume of non-oil and gas revenues in 2024 significantly exceeded estimates in the 2025-2027 budget law, including from the largest tax sources," the Finance Ministry said in a statement.

The increase in revenue allowed the government to spend more than ever, with total expenditure for the month of 7.15 trillion rubles, breaching the previous record set in December 2022.
The bottom line to me is that Russia, nor China are hurting for places to sell/trade their commodities.
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chickencoupe16
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In reply to nortex97 • 11:37a, 1/23/25
AG
nortex97 said:
Can't comment on the validity of the interview translation or the facts stated, but I'm warry of a guy whose pinned comment is this:

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In reply to chickencoupe16 • 11:58a, 1/23/25
AG
Ok, whatever. I haven't seen any disputes as to what all he quoted Zelensky as saying though. Your position seems to be 'attack the messenger' more than anything, imho.

ETA: Tucker's latest with Chamath addresses the…scam war early on.


Still live-streaming on the youtube.
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chickencoupe16
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In reply to nortex97 • 12:53p, 1/23/25
AG
A blind squirrel may find a nut every once in a while but you have consistently posted only the most Russian of views. Your sources are more than dubious and this one is not exception. When you look at his "top 13 doozies" from the interview, most are appear to be mischaracterizations of Zelensky's statements.

After watching 1:38:00 - 42:00, I can confirm that doozie 1 is definitely a mischaracterization. I have started the interview at the beginning and expect to find most of the other 13 are also wrong.
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nortex97
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In reply to chickencoupe16 • 1:18p, 1/23/25
AG
chickencoupe16 said:
A blind squirrel may find a nut every once in a while but you have consistently posted only the most Russian of views. Your sources are more than dubious and this one is not exception. When you look at his "top 13 doozies" from the interview, most are appear to be mischaracterizations of Zelensky's statements.

After watching 1:38:00 - 42:00, I can confirm that doozie 1 is definitely a mischaracterization. I have started the interview at the beginning and expect to find most of the other 13 are also wrong.
LOL, it's on youtube and elsewhere, so you can find the transcripts. I won't try to rebut your precise term of 'doozy,' but recognize that is a good standard for some.

Zelensky's the one who decided to sit down with him, so it's not anyone else' fault who was asked what questions, on tape.
Sorry, not sorry your favorite war is ending soon, and not on Zelensky's preference of tens of thousands of American troops to be stationed in 'Ukraine.' Graft proxy-war there is ending, and yes I am a bit joyous about it and the vindication as to the takes here for the past 2+ years. And I'm not trying to convince you of bias, or anything else, but thank you for joining the thread.

The war has led to a dramatic weakening of American allies and strengthening of China and Russia in particular. I pray that Trump succeeds in ending it.
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PlaneCrashGuy
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In reply to chickencoupe16 • 2:16p, 1/23/25
AG
chickencoupe16 said:
After watching 1:38:00 - 42:00, I can confirm that doozie 1 is definitely a mischaracterization. I have started the interview at the beginning and expect to find most of the other 13 are also wrong.
Zelensky absolutely claimed 3,800 North Korean casualties. What did Zelensky mean when he said "They themselves burn their faces." if you believe the original "doozie" was a mischaracterization.
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nortex97
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4:45a, 1/24/25
AG
Today's reality check updates: Rutte notes the war is going in 'the wrong direction.'

110th "Mechanized" brigade completely enveloped:

Downtown Chazov Yar getting stormed. Are UFA still able to employ M777 systems?

Hungary won't renew Moscow sanctions unless the little goblin of Kiev told to renew gas transit:
Quote:
Hungary will back the extension of EU sanctions against Moscow only if Brussels pushes Ukraine to resume gas transit from Russia to the bloc, Prime Minister Viktor Orban said on Friday.
The Hungarian leader's comments come ahead of an EU vote on whether to prolong sanctions that are due to expire at the end of January. The EU renews sanctions every six months, and the procedure requires unanimity among its 27 member states.
"Hungary lost 19 billion [$20 billion] due to the sanctions, I pulled the handbrake, I asked the European leaders to understand that this cannot continue," Orban said in an interview with the Kossuth radio station when asked about extending the restrictions.
Al Jazeera: Ukrainians sick of the way the state places war burden unequally (I had no idea they were pre-war 8th globally in terms of migrants):
Quote:
The war put the already weak social contract to the test. All of a sudden, a state that had hardly been present in Ukrainians' lives demanded that they sacrifice themselves for its survival.

In the wake of the failure of Russia's initial invasion plan, the surge of unity fuelled a wave of volunteerism. However, as the war ground on, a stark realisation emerged: the state is distributing the burdens and benefits of the war unequally. While some segments of society gain materially or politically, others bear disproportionate sacrifices, fuelling a growing sense of alienation within a large part of the Ukrainian population.
The state has done little to strengthen its relations with citizens in the face of waning war enthusiasm. Instead, government officials have bombarded the population with messaging about self-reliance.
Quote:
According to another July poll, only 29 percent considered it shameful to be a draft dodger.
A consistent pattern can be seen in these surveys: those supporting the continuation or strengthening conscription only constitute about a third of the population; a significant minority evade responding to such questions, reflected in the large number of "hard to say" or "don't know" answers; and the rest openly reject mobilisation.
These attitudes on conscription may seem at odds with results from "victory" polls. The majority in such surveys still indicate that "victory" for Ukraine should mean reclaiming all territories within its 1991 borders and rejecting any concessions to Russia.
But there is really no contradiction here. It is evident that while most Ukrainians would like to see "total victory", they are unwilling to sacrifice their lives for this goal and empathise with others who feel the same. That is why the majority also supports a negotiated peace as soon as possible.
More at the link. Wow.
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nortex97
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9:16a, 1/24/25
AG
Well…yeah.


Again this betrays an intent to negotiate an end, imho, though I am not sure of the context of the statement yet.
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J. Walter Weatherman
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:48a, 1/24/25
nortex97 said:
Well…yeah.


Again this betrays an intent to negotiate an end, imho, though I am not sure of the context of the statement yet.


The context is flattery of Trump and Trump's base, which he is very good at. Doesn't seem much more complicated than that.
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MJ20/20
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In reply to J. Walter Weatherman • 12:21p, 1/24/25
AG
Wait so Putin really isn't a dunk slavic moron about to shake himself to death with parkinson's? Now he's manipulating the POTUS and over half the American voting public through a twitter handle called unusual whales?
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OPAG
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In reply to J. Walter Weatherman • 12:26p, 1/24/25
AG
J. Walter Weatherman said:
nortex97 said:
Well…yeah.


Again this betrays an intent to negotiate an end, imho, though I am not sure of the context of the statement yet.


The context is flattery of Trump and Trump's base, which he is very good at. Doesn't seem much more complicated than that.
The context is absolutely true, flattery or not. LOL
"only one thing is important!"
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J. Walter Weatherman
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In reply to MJ20/20 • 1:20p, 1/24/25
MJ20/20 said:
Wait so Putin really isn't a dunk slavic moron about to shake himself to death with parkinson's? Now he's manipulating the POTUS and over half the American voting public through a twitter handle called unusual whales?


Who said that?
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nortex97
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4:34a, 1/25/25
AG
Excellent Trump: US will not participate in rebuilding Kiev:
Quote:
US President Donald Trump's administration is not interested in taking part in the reconstruction of Ukraine after the conflict is resolved, Bloomberg reported on Friday.

Trump's team has signaled that it doesn't intend to engage directly in rebuilding the country, suggesting that this responsibility would be handled by the private sector, the outlet said, citing a senior diplomat.
The stance marks a significant shift from the policies of Joe Biden's administration, which has spent around $100 billion on financial aid and military assistance to Kiev since the escalation of the Ukraine conflict in 2022, and pledged support with the post-conflict reconstruction.

Kiev has ramped up its privatization efforts to draw in foreign capital as it seeks private investors to support the country's reconstruction. Aleksey Sobolev, Ukraine's first deputy economy minister, outlined a $500 billion reconstruction initiative aimed at bringing both strategic and financial benefits to Western investors.
"It's the private sector that's going to be doing these investments," Sobolev said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos on Thursday, according to Reuters.

Why? Because USAID is not 'aid' it is the 'agency for international development' and is highly corrupt in Ukraine among other places, as an adjunct/branch of the CIA. It's orchestrated not one, but two color 'maidan' revolutions just in Kiev this century.


What a mess the UFA is. They are transferring ADA and military band members to the infantry now. Recent exchange of bodies was over 10:1 UFA:RUS, for the second month in a row.
Good news, Charles Bausman, a J6 refugee sounds like he will be returning from Russia. Thank you Trump. His substack is excellent.

Putin ready for immediate tele conference with Trump, who seems to be prioritizing meeting face to face.
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PlaneCrashGuy
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7:05p, 1/25/25
AG
It is a shame what this war has done to the general public's perception of war. Many, like this poster, think it should be cheered for or in this case, that it is "not real"

I look forward to this war ending and hope it will happen soon.
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nortex97
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 4:46a, 1/26/25
AG
Yep, it's all PR. Sacrificing thousands of lives in the interest of justifying more weapons/war/'aid.'


NYP: Business elites believe Trump truly is on the verge of solving the Ukraine war.
Polish PM: Russia-west reset inevitable:
Quote:
The West is waiting for the opportunity to reset relations with Russia after the Ukraine conflict ends, particularly in the business sector, the deputy speaker of the Polish Parliament, Krzysztof Bosak, said on Friday. It's not true that Western countries have severed ties with Moscow, he added.
Bosak made the remarks to RMF24 radio in response to questions about whether Warsaw should consider rekindling relations with Moscow if US President Donald Trump, who has pledged to end the conflict, brings Ukraine and Russia to the negotiating table. The MP argued that a reset in relations is inevitable, saying, "it will happen, regardless of what anyone thinks in Poland."
"We live in a world of propaganda, where it is believed that the Western world has definitively severed ties with Russia. This is purely a lie. In the Western world, all business and politics are just waiting to return to business as usual with Russia," Bosak, who also leads Poland's right-wing National Movement party, stated.
Makes sense, and another EU president said yesterday 'Ukraine' can never join nato.

No US troops, money for rebuilding, or Nato membership is probably the path to ending it.
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nortex97
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4:29a, 1/27/25
AG
Trump to scrap Hungary sanctions Biden (*) put in place in temper tantrum over not endorsing war on Russia.
Quote:
The US has pledged to reassess sanctions on Hungary that were imposed under former President Joe Biden, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said on Sunday. Following a phone conversation with newly appointed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Szijjarto said Washington is committed to rebuilding ties with Budapest.
"My new foreign minister colleague assured us that we will rebuild the Hungarian-American political system, and he also means that the previous measures taken out of revenge will be reviewed by the new US administration,"Szijjarto wrote on Facebook.
"We mutually expressed our joy that the new US president and his administration, as well as the Hungarian government, share the same position on very important issues," he added.
The Biden administration imposed various restrictions on Hungary, including terminating a bilateral tax agreement and tightening entry rules for Hungarians. Budapest interpreted these actions as attempts to pressure the country to weaken its ties with Russia and China.
100 day peace plan leaked (maybe?):
Quote:
But getting back to the opening thought: Many Ukrainian towns are beginning to fall without a fight, merely after being cut off or partially encircled. This bodes poorly for some of the larger upcoming fights, particularly Pokrovsk, which was expected by both sides to be one of the major pivotal upcoming battles of the war, akin in scale to Bakhmut.

Given these developments, it's very possible that Pokrovsk will likewise fall much quicker than expected when its main supply routes are cut off. Russian forces are now moving closer to the second of these lines, having captured the first days ago.
Quote:
What is included in the agreement?
  • Ukraine does not seek to return the territories that were liberated by Russia, either militarily or diplomatically, but at the same time does not officially recognize Russia's sovereignty over these territories.
  • Ukraine will not become a member of NATO and declares its neutrality. The decision that Ukraine will not be accepted into the alliance must be confirmed at the NATO summit.
  • Ukraine will become a member of the European Union by 2030. The EU is committed to rebuilding the country after the war.
  • The number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is not decreasing, and the United States is modernizing the Ukrainian army.
  • After the conclusion of the peace agreement, some anti-Russian sanctions will be lifted, and restrictions on the import of Russian energy resources to the EU will be lifted.
  • Parties that defend the Russian language and advocate peaceful relations with Russia should participate in the elections in Ukraine. The persecution of the canonical Ukrainian Orthodox Church will also cease.
Sure, I guess. All of this movement though reminds me of this documentary from a past conflict in this region where the Russians inexorably outmaneuvered their enemy who thought they were too exhausted to move on, in the Donbas/Donetsk etc., as the Germans poured over maps and expected/hoped for wonder weapons/tanks to turn the tide. Many of the same little towns are discussed.

Anyway, per the link the UFA seems to be cracking significantly now, and so as well are the proxy war supporters politically. I'm not sure the Russian advances will be slowed enough to provide for an agreement as such, unless somehow the 'muddy season' does this.

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PlaneCrashGuy
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In reply to nortex97 • 3:52p, 1/27/25
AG
nortex97 said:
Anyway, per the link the UFA seems to be cracking significantly now, and so as well are the proxy war supporters politically


This is good to see for the war to end, but we also need this to be true of our politicians over here.
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nortex97
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 5:13a, 1/28/25
AG
Ukrainian defense chief under investigation for dismissing the Defense Procurement Agency (a favorite of Democrats) trying to track corruption in procurement;
Quote:
Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov is under investigation for alleged abuse of power, a non-governmental anti-corruption watchdog has announced. The defense chief has been under fire over his decision to dismiss the head of the country's independent Defense Procurement Agency (DPA).
The controversy comes as Ukraine continues to grapple with endemic corruption, which has been a major cause for concern for Kiev's Western backers.

In a statement on Monday, the US- and EU-funded Anti-Corruption Action Center (AntAC) said the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU) had opened a case against Umerov based on its complaint, adding that the minister could be involved in "abuse of power or official position." If found guilty, Umerov could face three to six years in prison.

The NABU has yet to confirm the probe.

According to the AntAC, the allegations stem from Umerov's refusal to extend the contract of Marina Bezrukova, the director of the DPA. Established in 2022 and modeled on NATO standards, the agency is independent of the Ukrainian military and is designed to eliminate conflicts of interest and maximize transparency in the procurement process.

The AntAC previously argued that by cracking down on the DPA, Umerov was attempting to undermine NATO-style defense procurement reforms that were designed to protect the country from the "corruption hell" of previous years.

Umerov has been a fierce critic of the DPA, claiming that "instead of timely delivery of ammunition to our army," the agency has been mired in "political games" and has nonchalantly allowed egregious leaks of sensitive information.

"Weapon procurements, which should remain confidential during martial law and the full-scale war with Russia, have somehow turned into an Amazon, where every internet user can see in real time who is buying what and in what quantities," he said. Ukrainian media also claimed that the DPA enjoys considerable political backing from interest groups linked to Western policymakers, particularly the US Democratic Party.

In a way this is funny/clever:


Pure desperation. It's a little disappointing Trump hasn't reached out to Putin yet, tbf.
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Logos Stick
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:50a, 1/28/25
Nortex, you've been following this from the getgo... I saw this today. Is this thing starting to look like it extends because Russia is beginning to make major gains?:


Quote:
Amid talk of a ceasefire, Ukraine's front line is crumbling


https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/01/27/amid-talk-of-a-ceasefire-ukraines-front-line-is-crumbling
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nortex97
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In reply to Logos Stick • 9:59a, 1/28/25
AG
I'm actually cautiously optimistic that is not the case. Trump needs to reach out imho but I think in reality Russia doesn't really want 'all' of Ukraine. There is a risk of a complete collapse/rapid advance but I don't think that is likely in the spring 'muddy season.'

While Kharkiv and Odessa etc. remain distant possibilities, I don't think the Russians really politically/economically benefit from taking them (these would be very bloody fights likely). They functionally control the resources and population areas (including of course Crimea as a military port/region) they really care about, and should/likely would be willing to negotiate so long as Nato is out of the picture for Kiev. Just my two cents, thx.
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1836er
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In reply to nortex97 • 10:40a, 1/28/25
AG
nortex97 said:
I'm actually cautiously optimistic that is not the case. Trump needs to reach out imho but I think in reality Russia doesn't really want 'all' of Ukraine. There is a risk of a complete collapse/rapid advance but I don't think that is likely in the spring 'muddy season.'

While Kharkiv and Odessa etc. remain distant possibilities, I don't think the Russians really politically/economically benefit from taking them (these would be very bloody fights likely). They functionally control the resources and population areas (including of course Crimea as a military port/region) they really care about, and should/likely would be willing to negotiate so long as Nato is out of the picture for Kiev. Just my two cents, thx.
I tend to concur, in terms of the situation on the ground as it appears to be at this time.

My hope is that Ukraine moves quickly toward a ceasefire before conditions move in a less (for them) favorable direction, as what you have laid out looks like the least bad realistic outcome.
Vance in '28
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nortex97
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9:21a, 1/29/25
AG
Sigh…

True:

Kupyansk bridgehead expands. And…

I think it's too late for the Kiev regime to claim it is rooting out corruption.
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nortex97
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7:16p, 1/30/25
AG
Klitschko, one of the leading drug/human/sex traffickers/war profiteers in Ukraine (and the world), is mad at Zelensky for encroaching on his turf. He happens to be the mayor of Kiev. One of the 'good guys,' ya know?



Forever war, etc.
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nortex97
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8:14a, 2/1/25
AG
The Tucker chat with Piers Morgan is pretty entertaining, revolves around Putin/Zel/Nato around 20 minutes. I disagree with Piers about…pretty much everything but concede he is an eloquent speaker and it's a good back-and-forth.

Quote:
"Ukraine needs an immediate ceasefire, the war is draining us to the ground," - Zelensky's ex-press secretary for Time Magazine.
  • "This war is draining us to the core," writes former press secretary of the Ukrainian president Yulia Mendel
  • "I call on our allies, our leaders, and above all my fellow Ukrainians: think about the value of a ceasefire. Let us accept this difficult path not as a capitulation, but as a necessary step to secure Ukraine's future. We owe it to our nation, to those who have fallen, and to those who will inherit the Ukraine we seek to defend," Mendel says.
  • The prospect of NATO membership is becoming "increasingly remote" while Ukraine is "losing its nation in other ways" - in the form of refugees, civilian and military deaths, destroyed cities and infrastructure.
  • According to her, "high-level ceasefire talks are underway from Washington to Brussels,"
  • "An imperfect ceasefire, which may not satisfy all our demands for justice, is a necessary step. This is not a call for complacency; it is a call for survival. Even a temporary truce could allow us to strengthen the defenses we failed to build before the invasion," Mendel writes.
Russians mopping up around rail station in Chasov Yar.

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nortex97
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5:56a, 2/2/25
AG
LOL:

Quote:
Washington wants Kiev to have presidential and parliamentary elections, potentially by the end of this year, Reuters reported on Saturday, citing US President Donald Trump's special envoy for the Ukraine conflict, Keith Kellogg.

According to the report, Kellogg and other White House officials have discussed asking Kiev to hold the votes as part of a potential truce deal with Moscow. Speaking to the agency, Kellogg said that both the presidential and parliamentary elections "need to be done."

"Most democratic nations have elections in their time of war. I think it is important they do so," the special envoy said. "I think it is good for democracy. That's the beauty of a solid democracy, you have more than one person potentially running."

Parliamentary and presidential elections in Ukraine scheduled for October 2023 and March 2024 were not held after Vladimir Zelensky announced in December 2023 that they would not take place while martial law imposed during the conflict with Russia remains in force.
Krimske suburb liberated in push toward Toretsk. UFA meanwhile attacked a 'boarding school' in a false flag operation near the famous grocery store in Sudzha they looted for the cameras for months on end.

Yep, 100 percent true:


Oh, and Zelensky mouthed off about how Ukraine should not be discussed as between the US and Russia without his people being in the room.
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nortex97
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6:44a, 2/4/25
AG
LOL, Reuters article about failure to track/'deliver' Ukraine weapons under Biden regime. Too many funny bits to excerpt.
Sitrep: West prepares to Flush Zelensky. Good, about time!
Quote:
So, the above states that Ukrainian elections must be held no later than this coming Fall because the AFU situation is that precarious that Zelensky needs to be ousted this year in order to prevent a total Russian take over of Ukraine. We saw in my last piece that beacons of Western thought are now naming 2026 as the year that Russian tanks will roll through both Kiev and Lvov, with Budanov intimating that after this coming summer, Ukraine will begin facing 'existential' potentialities.

This is in line with earlier theories from months ago that Trump would initiate an "audit" of Ukraine, which would conveniently find vast corruption to the point of allowing Trump to 'wash his hands' of Zelensky and Ukraine at large, dumping them on Europe.
Take with a grain of salt, but Legitimny reports:

Quote:
Our source reports that the Trump team has already begun an audit of the Ukrainian case. Corruption schemes for billions of dollars, where all the highest ranks up to Ermak and his puppets are involved.

Information about this has not yet been disclosed. If Zelensky continues to drag out the war, then in the spring of 2025 the world can see a lot of interesting materials and facts.

Trump's special envoy for Ukraine-Russia Keith Kellogg is now slated to arrive in Kiev on February 11th for a one-on-one with Zelensky, perhaps to personally convey the above messaging as a final ultimatum to the doomed leader.
Quote:
According to the Ukrainian publication, citing its own sources, Kellogg is expected to arrive in Ukraine after February 11 to meet with Volodymyr Zelensky.
After his visit to Ukraine, Kellogg will travel to Europe for talks and then attend the Munich Security Conference.
European leaders however are still attempting to cling on, again announcing some special upcoming meetings to build solidarity around Ukrainian support in light of Trump's signaled disengaged hostility.
Quote:
As such, we can only assume that Ukraine will continue getting some bare minimum amount of aide, but not any 'surge'-like shipments that could fend off Russia in any way. Thus, the only real chance for survival in the interim that Ukraine has left is to lower the mobilization age, which could buy them perhaps another year or year and a half at most. But Zelensky appears adamantly against this without major weapon surge guaranteesand on the eve of a potential forced election he's unlikely to carry out an order that would be certain political suicide.

We can only surmise that the ambiguity and mystique surrounding Trump's salvation of Ukraine will float Ukrainian hopes for a few months longer, in a kind of period of 'hopeful delirium'. But somewhere around late spring or summertime, when it begins to dawn that Trump has no magic elixir, Ukraine's political turmoil could begin coming to a terminal head, in one way or another. This would likely coincide with another more major springtime offensive push from Russia that would see pressure being put on several more axes, which would tighten the yoke around the AFU to boiling point extremes.
Anyway, more at the link. Sounds about right, and Trump of course has to get his NSC/staff fixed to prevent any kind of subterfuge as per Ciaramella/Vindman before he himself deigns to speak again with the little green goblin.
Hopefully, the audit of Ukraine is well underway/produces some preliminary results before Kellog even gos this month:

Sitrep updates mainly around the push to Kupyansk/Pokrovsk.
One just has to laugh, sometimes. Our Nazi's:
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PlaneCrashGuy
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5:16p, 2/4/25
AG
This is something I could support. At least there would be some ROI.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/02/03/world/europe/trump-ukraine-rare-earth-minerals.html
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nortex97
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10:50a, 2/5/25
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Moscow welcomes Trump's stance on Ukraine:Nato:
Quote:
Russia welcomes the statements made by US President Donald Trump regarding Ukraine's NATO membership ambitions, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has said. Trump is the first Western leader to admit that it was wrong to support Kiev's plans to join the military bloc, the diplomat said on Wednesday.
Trump stated last month that he understands the Russian stance that Ukraine should not be part of NATO. Speaking to reporters in Florida, the US president said Moscow's position had long been "written in stone," but that his predecessor, Joe Biden, had ignored it, which contributed to the current conflict.

"Somewhere along the line, Biden said, '[Ukraine], they should be able to join NATO.' Well, then Russia has somebody right on their doorstep, and I can understand their feelings about that," Trump added.
Speaking at an ambassadors' roundtable on Ukraine, Lavrov said Trump's comments suggest Washington may finally be ready to address issues linked to Ukraine's NATO bid and the bloc's eastward expansion.

"President Trump bluntly said that one of the main mistakes was drawing Ukraine into NATO, and that if he had been in power the past four years, the conflict would not have happened,"Lavrov noted.

"For the first time, a Western leader… the leader of the entire Western world, uttered these words, which we welcome because for the first time the problem of NATO was identified as something that the US is ready to discuss seriously," he added. Lavrov reiterated Moscow's stance that Ukraine's NATO aspirations were a root cause of the current conflict, saying that warnings not to encourage these aspirations either fell on deaf ears or were met with "duplicity" and "hypocrisy" by Western politicians.

"The root cause is the conscious, long-term desire and… practical steps of the West to create direct military threats to Russia on our borders, on the territory of Ukraine, and drawing it into NATO. We have raised this issue repeatedly, demanding NATO honor its pledge not to expand eastward, but all was in vain," Lavrov said. He suggested Trump's remarks could signal a shift in US policy, which he called crucial as "Washington is the one who will ultimately make the decisions" regarding Ukraine's NATO membership.

Thank God Hillary lost outside the margin of error. A lot less coverage within Ukraine lately. Bellingcat and Kiev Post also having 'sudden funding issues.' I noted on the big USAID thread the recent documentation of the celebrity trips like Sean Penn etc. to Kiev being charged to USAID from 5 to 20 million bucks each.



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nortex97
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5:08a, 2/6/25
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More war on Russia/eurasia fall out from the USAID take down(s):



AFU Re-org analysis from armchair:
Quote:
In brief, the AFU's profusion of brigades under an equal profusion of ad-hoc echelon-above-brigade (how's that for a US Army doctrinal term) groupings will be rationalized into a system of twenty "corps," each controlling five or more brigades. These "corps" (really divisions, but the Ukrainians seem to be allergic to the term) will then, confusingly, be subordinated to the AFU's actual existing corps commands.

All well and good you say - the AFU is an organizational nightmare - but there's a wrinkle. These twenty corps are being formed by simply "promoting" the twenty most prominent Ukrainian brigades to corps (both Azov brigades, for instance, are scheduled for promotion). These glorified brigades are then supposed to supervise a large number of subordinate brigades. This would create an even worse unworkable mess*... unless most of the units involved are radically understrength and this is an amalgamation disguised as an organizational reform.

* No brigade headquarters can supervise its own troops plus five other brigades of its own size - even a divisional-size headquarters would struggle with such an unwieldy arrangement.

Reading between the lines it's pretty clear what's actually happening - as has been widely reported, the AFU's formal force structure is a gutted shell of what it should be, to the point that the Ukrainian infantry is only being kept in business by ruthlessly looting the rear services for bodies (their latest drive aims to shake out 50,000 men and has caught up even Patriot operators). Most of Ukraine's 100+ maneuver brigades are likely at the level of a battalion plus or minus right now,* with only a small number of privileged units more-or-less fully manned.

* Among other things, we know this because the AFU isn't large enough, even at the most deranged licking-Zelensky's-desk-blotter force level estimates, to logistically support that many front-line units if they were all fully manned.

So the answer to this organizational quagmire was obvious - turn those privileged units into what are effectively divisions, shovel wrecked brigades into them to get them up to strength, and the psyops office will continue to pretend all these excess brigades still exist in a meaningful sense via appropriate branding in press releases.

This does give us a useful estimate of the AFU's total force size, however. Assuming that each of these twenty new "corps" is slated to be manned at a divisional level of around 10,000 soldiers (accounting for, say, 5,000 men in the parent brigade plus 1,000 each in five shattered filler brigades), this gives us 200,000 front-line troops in the AFU. With a very lean "tooth to tail" ratio of 1:2 after reorganization and a "combing-out" of the rear services, this would suggest the AFU has shrunk to around 600,000 personnel at the moment.
About right…shuffling deck chairs, essentially.
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PlaneCrashGuy
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In reply to nortex97 • 1:13p, 2/6/25
AG
nortex97 said:
Very concerning this funding freeze coincides with a significant reduction in online chatter from the Ukrainian side. X is a ghost town when compared to what it was 1-2 months ago IMO.
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nortex97
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 2:02p, 2/6/25
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The people running USAID (and the CIA) have historically bragged quite publicly about their power/impact in revolutions. Of course, the 2014 one in Ukraine is more pertinent to this thread but the topic goes back further.

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MJ20/20
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In reply to PlaneCrashGuy • 2:03p, 2/6/25
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There's a chunk of naive folks on this site that bought all of that bull**** hook line and sinker.

The richest part being they claimed to be moderate and/or conservative consituents that lapped up the leftist agenda. Trump is going to sever support and serve up Ukraine on a silver paltter.
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WestAustinAg
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In reply to MJ20/20 • 3:25p, 2/6/25
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MJ20/20 said:
There's a chunk of naive folks on this site that bought all of that bull**** hook line and sinker.

The richest part being they claimed to be moderate and/or conservative consituents that lapped up the leftist agenda. Trump is going to sever support and serve up Ukraine on a silver paltter.

Or they were funded by groups that are then asked to go online and make the case for Ukraine. I wouldn't doubt that the funding has been disrupted and morale is weak.
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