Gold at record high.
Silver at a 13-year high (in USD).
Bitcoin hovering near its record high.

They know something is coming, that many don't? pic.twitter.com/N6VruOrYTF

— Save Invest Repeat 📈 (@InvestRepeat) April 12, 2024

🇮🇳 India's Strategic Purchases!

"India...they had already purchased 400 million ounces...

they are going to do all they can to drain the silver coffers around the globe." ✅

- Andy Shectman pic.twitter.com/XnkLeyITDV

— GoldSilver HQ (@GoldSilverHQ) April 12, 2024

Silver $32/ounce in China! 🥳 pic.twitter.com/79pFOTIQ8A

— GoldSilver HQ (@GoldSilverHQ) April 12, 2024

#Gold is going to break $2420 #Silver is going to break $30

In the 1970s during the Iranian hostage crisis, Iran blocked all oil exports. Oil price doubled and Gold went from $200s to $800. The U.S. debt wasn’t anywhere as huge as right now. And U.S. allies were flushed with… pic.twitter.com/9SPYkyvMVL

— Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 (@KingKong9888) April 12, 2024

Is this Gold and Silver suddenly increasing in popularity/demand or the value of the US dollar rapidly decreasing?



History doesn't repeat but it often rhymes......

this is definately signal that something is going on. lots of opinions on what that something is but gold doesn't typically act this way unless there is something major bubbling up.

Ripper is on the right track- but more immediately its the efforts by the Fed Reserve to lower inflation to their target 2% have now failed, or at least appear to have failed in the last few months

which means that while Wall Street was literally betting on 6 rate cuts in 2024, that has moved to 5, then 4 then 3 now maybe 1.

so the markets were counting on lower interest rates, which now proves to be false as there will be higher rates for longer amount of time

it would be normal for the markets to fall- which so far they have not.

The regime isn't going to raise rates by any meaningful measure.

A lot of the pm buying right now is hysterical buying, but it's coming.

General Jack D. Ripper said:

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The regime isn't going to raise rates by any meaningful measure.

A lot of the pm buying right now is hysterical buying, but it's coming.

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I don't think it's hysterical to buy in now before it goes parabolic. Just look at the Weimar Germany exchange rate table. This can all happen VERY fast. The USD is not immune to the same fate.

Agreed. We haven't come close to hysterical buying yet. **** could get crazy fast. Glad I have been stacking for years.

Quote:

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A lot of the pm buying right now is hysterical buying, but it's coming.

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There's not a lot of retail buying right now. Less than 1% of Americans hold gold/silver. Once retail buyers start to panic, PMs will become Un-Obtainium.



A big part of the buying is the East (aka BRICS) slowing their purchases/dumping US treasuries/dollars and taking physical metal into their possession. And of course Central banks around the global accumulating it too.


I'm still expecting the slam down to come later today and next week but long term PMs are going much higher IMO.

Ghost Mech said:

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Quote:

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A lot of the pm buying right now is hysterical buying, but it's coming.

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There's not a lot of retail buying right now. Less than 1% of Americans hold gold/silver. Once retail buyers start to panic, PMs will become Un-Obtainium.



A big part of the buying is the East (aka BRICS) slowing their purchases/dumping US treasuries/dollars and taking physical metal into their possession. And of course Central banks around the global accumulating it too.


I'm still expecting the slam down to come later today and next week but long term PMs are going much higher IMO.

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Might have missed that part, can you point it out on the chart?

[url=https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/29/why-china-japan-and-the-fed-are-shaking-up-the-26-trillion-us-treasury-market.html][/url]

Quote:

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https://www.cnbc.com/2024/02/29/why-china-japan-and-the-fed-are-shaking-up-the-26-trillion-us-treasury-market.html

THU, FEB 29 2024

When investors think of the financial markets, the first thing that likely comes to mind is the stock market.

But there is a bigger, less-flashy counterpart to the equity market: the bond market. At the heart of the fixed income space lies U.S. Treasurys, one of the safest investments in the world.

Buyers of U.S. Treasurys have been changing, with major players including China, Japan and the Federal Reserve seeing their respective holdings decline in recent years. The shift could have broad implications for the U.S. economy.

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Quote:

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Japan, China pare U.S. Treasury holdings as currencies hit new lows

Japan and China's share of U.S. Treasury holdings has declined to the lowest on record as the U.S. issues more debt and the two Asian countries try to keep their own currencies from sliding past historic lows.

The top two holders of American debt accounted for $1.94 trillion in Treasury securities as of June. This is roughly a quarter of all U.S. debt held abroad but just under 8% of the total -- and a far cry from the high of a 25.4% overall share held by the two countries in 2007, according to Refinitiv data.

Japan's holdings of $1.1 trillion represent 4.4% of the total, while China's $835 billion is equal to 3.4%, according to the most recent Treasury data from the end of June.


https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Bonds/Japan-China-pare-U.S.-Treasury-holdings-as-currencies-hit-new-lows

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[url=https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Bonds/Japan-China-pare-U.S.-Treasury-holdings-as-currencies-hit-new-lows][/url]

Fair, so is your point that overall foreign investment in Treasuries is being dumped or just that the BRICS consortium is? If the former, than that doesn't hold water. If the latter, data points including Japan aren't supportive of the concern even though they may be factual.

BRICS as a mindset is a longer term threat, wholly agree with that. BRICS itself is not much of a threat. It's main economic constituents (India & China) aren't big fans of each other. Until they can come up with a liquid currency, BRICS is a barter arrangement which is incredibly inefficient.

I don't know much about gold and silver. I don't think their movement up will preclude the dollar from getting stronger. I think both go higher (and honestly, likely gold faster than the dollar). I'm not a gold hater at all. I think criticisms of the dollar are well-founded in absolute terms but the dollar doesn't exist as fiat in a bubble. It has to be considered in relative terms to other fiats. All fiats have failed over time, the dollar is likely no different. It's demise, at least in my opinion, will not occur soon.

The poster that mentioned the US's stupid, stupid, stupid move to weaponize the currency is 100% right on that decision's ability to influence gold higher. Even our allies have to look at that and think about what happens if we're not always allies.

Are Israel and Iran about to go to war? Most obvious flashpoint right now.

LMCane said:

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Ripper is on the right track- but more immediately its the efforts by the Fed Reserve to lower inflation to their target 2% have now failed, or at least appear to have failed in the last few months

which means that while Wall Street was literally betting on 6 rate cuts in 2024, that has moved to 5, then 4 then 3 now maybe 1.

so the markets were counting on lower interest rates, which now proves to be false as there will be higher rates for longer amount of time

it would be normal for the markets to fall- which so far they have not.

---

I think we have the full picture with you and Ripper, and then keep in mind the markets are demonimated in dollars, so the continued weakening dollar at this point is offsetting hidden market declines. Those with assets can float up with the inflation. Poor people living paycheck to paycheck will get crushed, and then angry, and crime will continue to increase significantly.

ChiefKiefton said:

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Agreed. We haven't come close to hysterical buying yet. **** could get crazy fast. Glad I have been stacking for years.

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do you have a price target to sell into the hysteria?

[url=https://ai3d.blog/foreign-and-domestic-buyers-reject-10-year-bonds-in-yesterdays-catastrophic-us-treasury-auction/][/url]

Quote:

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https://ai3d.blog/foreign-and-domestic-buyers-reject-10-year-bonds-in-yesterdays-catastrophic-us-treasury-auction/

April 11, 2024

The, auction of 10-year U.S. Treasury notes revealed a statistically concerning trend for the American government's long-term debt securities.

Demand from key investors is evaporating, a reflection of growing skepticism towards the sustainability and safety of the United States' rapidly increasing debt load.

Notably, foreign buyers, who traditionally play a significant role in purchasing U.S. debt, reduced their participation to 61.8%, a sharp drop from previous levels and the lowest since October 2023.

This decline is significant, falling well below the average foreign participation rate observed over the last six auctions.


Similarly, direct purchases by investors plummeted to a mere 14.2%, marking the lowest point since November 2021.

As a result, primary dealers, or the middlemen who buy directly from the government and sell to investors, were forced to absorb a much larger portion of the debt, taking on 24.0% of the auction.


This is the highest, forced dealer uptake since November 2022, underscoring the diminishing appetite among traditional buyers for U.S. long-term debt, due to fears over its growing unsustainability and associated risk of a U.S. debt default

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US Treasury bills are being met with weak demand. That's a very strong indicator of high inflation on the horizon.https://t.co/mdBnnvmHmI

— Mark Mendlovitz (@MendlovitzMark) April 11, 2024

Quote:

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Weak Demand for $39 Billion Auction Sends 10-Year Treasury Yields Near 4.6%

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/cpi-report-today-inflation-stock-market-04-10-2024/card/weak-demand-for-39-billion-auction-sends-10-year-treasury-yields-near-4-6--r8AceZe0tbAvG5TeRK1f

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[url=https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/cpi-report-today-inflation-stock-market-04-10-2024/card/weak-demand-for-39-billion-auction-sends-10-year-treasury-yields-near-4-6--r8AceZe0tbAvG5TeRK1f][/url]

The crash won't happen overnight.....but the signals are clear; US inflation and debt are a concern.

sam callahan said:

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I have been perplexed for almost two decades how this house of cards hasn't already fallen.

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same

We agree. I just get concerned with some of the hysterics around these types of conversations. Managing money has to be done so in the environment you're in and not the one you think you're in or want to be in.

Other than just considering a good investment, China buys Treasuries many times because of the trade imbalance between China and the US. They get dollars from us but have to pay their people in local currency so their central bank is used in the conversion.

Chinese exports to the US fell $110B in 2023 from 2022. Friendshoring has been happening significantly in the last couple years and Mexico in many respects is a superior alternative to China from a labor standpoint. It stands to reason that Chinese exports to the US could continue to fall and their need for dollars will follow the same path.

All I'm saying is - their Treasury holdings can continue to fall and there could be more reasons than are immediately obvious.

This board does a poor job of prognostication on just about everything.

At what point will you start dumping stocks?

Texmid said:

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At what point will you start dumping stocks?

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I am 100% out of equities aside from a couple small positions that I have very clear stops on.

The bull markets moving forward are looking to be metals and energy.

Helicopter Ben said:

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General Jack D. Ripper said:

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The regime isn't going to raise rates by any meaningful measure.

A lot of the pm buying right now is hysterical buying, but it's coming.

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I don't think it's hysterical to buy in now before it goes parabolic. Just look at the Weimar Germany exchange rate table. This can all happen VERY fast. The USD is not immune to the same fate.

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I'd argue it's already late to be buying gold. I bought a little over a year ago at around $1,630/ounce. Now it's like $2,400/ounce.

Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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This board does a poor job of prognostication on just about everything.

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Do you do any better?

Logos Stick said:

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Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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This board does a poor job of prognostication on just about everything.

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Do you do any better?

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I don't pretend to know any better. My position is usually that things are usually never as bad as this board or most people want to believe them to be.

Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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This board does a poor job of prognostication on just about everything.

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Do you do any better?

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I don't pretend to know any better. My position is usually that things are usually never as bad as this board or most people want to believe them to be.

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You are wise to take advice from internet echo chambers filled with guys that can post 15-25 times a day in them.

Ya know after thinking about it, they are likely beyond qualified actually. Lol

Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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This board does a poor job of prognostication on just about everything.

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Do you do any better?

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I don't pretend to know any better. My position is usually that things are usually never as bad as this board or most people want to believe them to be.

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If you followed the stock market thread, some of us have been building positions in metals for over a year now. They have been building an extremely bullish consolidation pattern for a very long time. This is just the start of the breakout.

LMCane said:

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Ripper is on the right track- but more immediately its the efforts by the Fed Reserve to lower inflation to their target 2% have now failed, or at least appear to have failed in the last few months

which means that while Wall Street was literally betting on 6 rate cuts in 2024, that has moved to 5, then 4 then 3 now maybe 1.

so the markets were counting on lower interest rates, which now proves to be false as there will be higher rates for longer amount of time

it would be normal for the markets to fall- which so far they have not.

---

They need to raise rates, a lot.

Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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Logos Stick said:

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Ghost of Andrew Eaton said:

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This board does a poor job of prognostication on just about everything.

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Do you do any better?

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I don't pretend to know any better. My position is usually that things are usually never as bad as this board or most people want to believe them to be.

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You think that it's just this board? Do you not shop? Have you ever gone to the debt clock website? It doesn't take Thomas Sowell to see that we are teetering on the cliff.

Sims said:

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We agree. I just get concerned with some of the hysterics around these types of conversations. Managing money has to be done so in the environment you're in and not the one you think you're in or want to be in.

Other than just considering a good investment, China buys Treasuries many times because of the trade imbalance between China and the US. They get dollars from us but have to pay their people in local currency so their central bank is used in the conversion.

Chinese exports to the US fell $110B in 2023 from 2022. Friendshoring has been happening significantly in the last couple years and Mexico in many respects is a superior alternative to China from a labor standpoint. It stands to reason that Chinese exports to the US could continue to fall and their need for dollars will follow the same path.

All I'm saying is - their Treasury holdings can continue to fall and there could be more reasons than are immediately obvious.

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Timely from Bloomberg today:

Quote:

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Bloomberg's conclusion here is that until there is official support for the yen - which seems unlikely even as the Japanese currency crater to a new record low every single day - or a shift back to expectations for early Fed interest rate cuts, "there isn't much Chinese authorities can do about an outperforming US dollar. Especially as the PBOC is seen easing monetary policy again this year." We disagree, especially because the PBOC is seen easing monetary policy: China can - and at this rate will have no choice but to - devalue the currency, and while so far it has been doing everything in its power to telegraph that it will defend the yuan and avoid a repeat of the record capital outflows from 2015, one day Beijing will shock everyone when it announced that the Yuan has lost 10% of its value overnight, and which point the surge in crypto and gold will truly shine.

The bottom line is that Beijing continues to be trapped: either keep the currency artificially "stable" and suffer continued trade loss to competitor Japan which is crushing its currency, or devalue the yuan and regain the mercantilist throne, however at the expense of massive capital outflows.

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If you were ever wondering what market manipulation looks like in real life.......

Mainstream Normies have not even started looking at #Gold & #Silver yet.

Gold $2390 and climbing

Silver $ 28.56 and climbing

🔥🔥🔥❤️ https://t.co/PnhKdVIcGn pic.twitter.com/QzTxqnEEjz

— Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 (@KingKong9888) April 11, 2024

Jun24 Comex digital gold breaches $2400 in early morning Asian/Chinese trading. pic.twitter.com/wbpY9yAw29

— TF Metals Report (@TFMetals) April 12, 2024

100% of yearly mined silver dumped into the market in minutes = profit taking pic.twitter.com/pV6HZ8RmQ6

— tom durek (@DurekTom) April 12, 2024

It's been this way for a LONG time in these two markets. Ask yourself, does it make any sense to "take profits" by dumping a year's worth of mining production (~832,000,000 Ounces (oz)) onto the market within a few minutes?