AtticusMatlock said:

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New York Times just updated the estimated % of outstanding ballots left in CA 45. Math looks a bit more comfortable for the GOP incumbent but it's still going to be very close. 94% of the LA County portion of the district is now in and that's where her opponent is leading the most. 84% of Orange County portion of district is in and she is leading there by a small amount. Not out of the woods yet as each ballot drop has drawn the race a bit closer, even in Orange County, but still looks better than what it did.

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Reminder: Los Angeles County uses a proprietary electronic voting system created for them by Smartmatic.

Some people reporting Republicans have 219 as opposed to 217 on AP and Fox. What's up?

WolfCall said:

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Some people reporting Republicans have 219 as opposed to 217 on AP and Fox. What's up?

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AP FINALLY CALLS CA 41

AP =217 GOP, 207 Dem

Dec. Desk = 219 GOP, 211 Dem (Added IA 1, AZ 6 for GOP) GOP CONTROL OF HOUSE

RCP = 219 GOP, 210 Dem (Added IA 1, AZ 6 for GOP)

WolfCall said:

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Some people reporting Republicans have 219 as opposed to 217 on AP and Fox. What's up?

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Each group of statisticians has their own criteria to make the call. DDHQ has a model in which they will call a race when they believe it is greater than 95% certainty of a win. That's how most outlets also handle it but they all have their own slightly different statistical models. So you'll see a bit of variation when races get called. DDHQ has been more aggressive on the House calls but more conservative in the Senate calls. AP has been the opposite.

Quick Update 11/13 630pm:

• IA 1 still has a few votes trickling in. Miller-Meeks (GOP incumbent) now up by 802 votes.
• Good day so far for GOP incumbent John Duarte in CA 13. Gained 600 votes in latest dump. Still only 74% est reported, though.
• Waiting on new news in CA 45. Hopefully we'll get a favorable update by about 7p CT.

AtticusMatlock said:

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WolfCall said:

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Some people reporting Republicans have 219 as opposed to 217 on AP and Fox. What's up?

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Each group of statisticians has their own criteria to make the call. DDHQ has a model in which they will call a race when they believe it is greater than 95% certainty of a win. That's how most outlets also handle it but they all have their own slightly different statistical models. So you'll see a bit of variation when races get called. DDHQ has been more aggressive on the House calls but more conservative in the Senate calls. AP has been the opposite.

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How many spots are still to be called?

With Gaetz's resignation, the Rs now have the majority at 217…

AP and NYT have yet to call 11 races. I'm sticking with them because they've been the most hesitant to call races.

Of these, in my estimation only two (CA 45 and CA 13) have outcomes that are reasonably in doubt. GOP leads both of them and hopefully it will stay that way.

FireAg said:

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With Gaetz's resignation, the Rs now have the majority at 217…

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Wait, for the currently sitting House?

Or incoming? He still could show up to be sworn for the next session of Congress, I thought?

(Really crappy optics if that is the play here. And I am not sure DeSantis could get a special election completed on such a short time frame. And if the seat is no longer vacant before the special election? I see a lot of court time happening.)

I don't think this was thought through all of the way. I sure as hell am confused and getting whiplash from how fast the landscape keeps shifting.

Whats that you say about the right pigs squeeling?

aggiehawg said:

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FireAg said:

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With Gaetz's resignation, the Rs now have the majority at 217…

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Wait, for the currently sitting House?

Or incoming? He still could show up to be sworn for the next session of Congress, I thought?

(Really crappy optics if that is the play here. And I am not sure DeSantis could get a special election completed on such a short time frame. And if the seat is no longer vacant before the special election? I see a lot of court time happening.)

I don't think this was thought through all of the way. I sure as hell am confused and getting whiplash from how fast the landscape keeps shifting.

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Well we will eventually find out one way or another…

Wiles doesn't usually just do things on a whim though…if she's in on it, then there's something we aren't privy to yet…

The Hill is quoting Speaker Johnson that they have spoken with Governor Desantis and intend on having a special election soon enough to seat the replacement by 3 January. The article also said that this will effectively kill the ethics investigation due to they don't have jurisdiction anymore.

Really bad drop in CA 45. Michelle Steel now only leads by 349 votes. Looking like it's going to be a Dem flip. He's gained every day.

The Dem challenger has garnered around 58% of the vote in Orange County over the last few days.

I don't see this as be salvageable. There's not enough GOP votes left IMO.

Thanks. I just didn't want for them to come back and either tie or move ahead.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Really bad drop in CA 45. Michelle Steel now only leads by 349 votes. Looking like it's going to be a Dem flip. He's gained every day.

The Dem challenger has garnered around 58% of the vote in Orange County over the last few days.

I don't see this as be salvageable. There's not enough GOP votes left IMO.

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Hoping for some kind of Hail Mary in CA 45. The way we are losing House members to the administration, we need as many as possible.

We won't. There's a reason these races are taking so long in Democrat run states.

The outcomes are not being left to chance.

The D's can't afford to lose both chambers and the White House

4 said:

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We won't. There's a reason these races are taking so long in Democrat run states.

The outcomes are not being left to chance.

The D's can't afford to lose both chambers and the White House

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They will lose the house. It's already been called.

Some people seem to want to lose just to say "I told you so"

AP FINALLY CALLS AZ 6

AP =218 GOP, 208 Dem AP CALLS GOP CONTROL OF HOUSE

Dec. Desk = 219 GOP, 212 Dem (Added IA 1 for GOP)

RCP = 219 GOP, 210 Dem (Added IA 1 for GOP)

jamieboy2014 said:

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4 said:

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We won't. There's a reason these races are taking so long in Democrat run states.

The outcomes are not being left to chance.

The D's can't afford to lose both chambers and the White House

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They will lose the house. It's already been called.

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Calling something is not official

samurai_science said:

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jamieboy2014 said:

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4 said:

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We won't. There's a reason these races are taking so long in Democrat run states.

The outcomes are not being left to chance.

The D's can't afford to lose both chambers and the White House

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They will lose the house. It's already been called.

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Calling something is not official

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if i call you a butthead it will be official.

but you are correct. butthead

The house seats in Alaska and Iowa haven't been called, right? It's bull**** with what's going on with California now. Funny the longer it takes, somehow the democrats gain closer than before and eventually take the lead to the end.

maxag42 said:

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The house seats in Alaska and Iowa haven't been called, right? It's bull**** with what's going on with California now. Funny the longer it takes, somehow the democrats gain closer than before and eventually take the lead to the end.

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Huh?