My guess is that China can survive about 6 to 8 months of this. I think there is way more slack in the American system and way more foreign countries interested in taking up an advantageous position. It will be harder for Vietnam since they're contiguous to China but for a lot of countries this could sling shot their economies, industrial and financial sectors specifically, and China really doesn't have a normal recourse. They could go to war, but I'm not sure they're in a spot yet to do anything other than go nuclear which would be loss for everyone. They're gonna burn serious cash fighting this off and hoping we sabotage ourselves enough. If a few trade agreements turn into a significant movement, and Trump did this with the Abraham Accords, then China will be in a very tight spot.

China isn't stupid. They released COVID with no consequences. They spy and steal constantly. They have a plan for Trump.

And Xi's hero is Mao. There won't be a negotiation.

FarmerJohn said:

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And Xi's hero is Mao. There won't be a negotiation.

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Unless there is high level friction.

Just like the Russian communists, paranoia can cause unexpected consequences.

Mao 37 million in just a few years.

MediAg13 said:

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It's going to hit China way harder in a more meaningful way. The difference is that their government doesn't care at all about the welfare of their citizens. They will tolerate way more pain for their people than we will. We also have the tick tock of midterms on the horizon which makes me wonder how successful this will be. I'm in the camp that we need to give Trump time to work before we judge but it's a hard negotiation to win.

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Americans have no tolerance for pain or discomfort. Just look at the panic about the market.

richardag said:

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CDUB98 said:

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Quote:

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The difference is that their government doesn't care at all about the welfare of their citizens.

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Yup.

Mao killed tens of millions and nobody batted an eye.

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Mao's Great Leap Forward 'killed 45 million in four years'
quote from the article

• State retribution for tiny thefts, such as stealing a potato, even by a child, would include being tied up and thrown into a pond; parents were forced to bury their children alive or were doused in excrement and urine, others were set alight, or had a nose or ear cut off. One record shows how a man was branded with hot metal. People were forced to work naked in the middle of winter; 80 per cent of all the villagers in one region of a quarter of a million Chinese were banned from the official canteen because they were too old or ill to be effective workers, so were deliberately starved to death.

Mao made Hitler look inept in genocide, Hitler exterminated ~ 15 to 17 million.
Stalin was close to Mao in exterminating 20 million or more.

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Don't forget the ones killed through starvation.

The net result of the trade war / both Chinese and Americans need to be better off.

I don't agree at all how they do business, but in the end if you are for humans being better off I expect our President to force a deal to the table that benefits everyone in the end.

I don't like people getting off on others not having work or being able to provide a living. And in saying that anyone that steals, dumps, manipulates, or gets huge government investments to compete lower than costs can **** off - free trade and free enterprise on level playing fields is where it is at.

My experience has been the same. My Chinese vendors are begging for business.

For all the gloating about the pain China feels....there's a bunch of small businesses here in the US about to fold. I'm in a niche within a niche, and I see one supplier of about 10 or so surviving the next 12 months. Even for the stuff I can make in the US, a ton of the sub components simply can't be made here.

The lighting company my wife works for is in a similar boat. 100% of the metal work and assembly is done here in the US. The electronics, wiring, and related sub components are predominantly overseas.

You know who will take those market niches over? Direct to consumer Chinese brands. They'll set up subsidiaries in the US, sell to the subsidiary at a heavy discount to avoid tariffs, and employ some warehouse workers in CA to pack and ship.

Quote:

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free trade and free enterprise on level playing fields is where it is at.

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The Western World cannot compete on a level playing field with the rest of the world. FULL STOP

Right, that is why you have to penalize them for product dumping and using slave labor.

We should be shaming our companies, and boycotting based off that.

When millions of people are starving, they very well could rise up and revolt.

That's what I'm hoping for because Xi would be forced to cave, or someone might come for his head.

Gaeilge said:

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I own a retail business where I get many custom accessories directly purchased from China. These are generally cheap accessories that are keystone in the business.

In the last 2wks all but one of eight accessory manufacturers I work with directly have sent me messages begging for orders. Even so much as cutting their prices to what would seem b/e just to keep their people working. Even with such a discount, the #s still don't work for us at this time. The eighth vendor's page disappeared off Alibaba, so I'm guessing he shut shop. We just won't carry the accessories once they run out. It will cut some of our revenue, but not enough to matter in the long run. I was buying about $12k/yr in those accessories.

Stretch that across all the businesses of similar size to myself and even larger and it makes you wonder how long these shops can stay idle.

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https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/busiest-us-ports-see-big-drop-in-chinese-freight-vessel-traffic.html

Quote:

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The pullback in trade between the U.S. and China as a result of President Trump's steep tariffs on Chinese goods and fears of a recession are starting to show up in major ports data, with a steep drop in container vessel traffic headed to Los Angeles and Long Beach.

For the week ending May 3, the number of freight vessels leaving China and headed to the Southern California ports, the main U.S. ports receiving Chinese freight and other Asian trade, is down 29% week-over-week, according to Port Optimizer, a tracking system for ships. Year-over-year, the data shows a 44% drop in vessels scheduled to arrive the week of May 4-May 10.

This data is updated on a daily basis based on the vessel manifests declaring the port destination. These vessels are either scheduled to leave Asia or are already on the water and headed to these ports.

Twelve vessels are scheduled to come in this week, down from 22 the week of April 20. Measured in shipping containers, a total of 62,568 TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) are arriving the week of May 4-May 10, versus 120,608 TEUs as recently as the week of April 20-April 26.

The fallout from the ocean freight slowdown is beginning to hit ground transport linked to ports.

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Looks like it is widespread my friend.

The "great leap forward" was followed by the "cultural revolution." This also involved attacking femininity, and wiping their cultural legacies/institutions out.

During the Chinese Cultural Revolution femininity was denounced by Mao as weak, bourgeois-like and non-revolutionary. He wanted to turn all girls and women into brutal revolutionary mobs.

Female Red Guards were compelled to prove themselves that they were just as or even more… pic.twitter.com/AflhbsTl5W

— Xi Van Fleet (@XVanFleet) August 31, 2024

How Mao erased femininity: women before and after the Communist revolution.

Pix 1-2: Women in traditional Chinese Qipao (upto 1949)
Pix 3: Women in Lenin suits (1950s)
Pix 4: Women in Mao suits (1966-1976)

Mao regarded femininity toxic & bourgeois and needed to be replaced by… pic.twitter.com/W9zpvkheV6

— Xi Van Fleet (@XVanFleet) May 12, 2024

Another 20+ million killed. That's how communists roll.

This was in my inbox this am...

From fendi1@xinchen56.com

Fendi gives you transportation information.


We have preferential policies with shipping companies- by way of deducting tariff quotas


From CN to LA/LB 40HQ usd 1000


From CN to SAVANNAH 40HQ USD 2000


From CN to IPI (CHICAGO) 40HQ usd 3100

Since this thread is about anecdotal affects - I'll add that one of my hobbies is board games - and I'm not talking about the crap kind you get from Hasbro, etc. This is an entire industry that works on a model of design in America (and other countries) and manufacture in China. And there are no real alternatives to China. None of these game publishers has the size or capital to startup such wide-scale manufacturing capabilities.

To make it worse typically what happens in this industry is that manufacturing is paid for up front and months later everything is shipped at once to the US. Well, with tariffs the majority of these publishers are now facing a predicament of not being able to pay for the tariffs even though they paid the manufacturing costs months ago. Many are playing a wait and see game right now and paying additional storage costs in China to see if they can wait it out. Some have already announced layoffs and closings.

To make it even worse, there is the Kickstarter/Gamefound business model as well where publishers pre-sell a game direct to consumers and retailers before it is even finished (and most importantly before it is manufactured). So people like myself have already pre-paid for games months ago but now all of those games are being held up from being shipped to the US for the same reasons. Many of these publishers will go under if this doesn't get resolved within the next 30-60 days resulting in thousands more in job losses as well as the shutdown of practically an entire industry in the US.

Trump really should have excluded products that were already bought and paid for but not shipped from this boondoggle. But like always he chose the blunt force trauma approach and damn the consequences.

FarmerJohn said:

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And Xi's hero is Mao. There won't be a negotiation.

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There will be and it's likely happening now using back channels.

Xi won't do it in public to save face, but he will do it.

The negotiations aren't about their citizenry, it's about their money which they have to have in order to continue to achieve their own goals.

They will bend, and they will bend soon.

KingofHazor said:

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javajaws said:

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Since this thread is about anecdotal affects - I'll add that one of my hobbies is board games - and I'm not talking about the crap kind you get from Hasbro, etc. This is an entire industry that works on a model of design in America (and other countries) and manufacture in China. And there are no real alternatives to China. None of these game publishers has the size or capital to startup such wide-scale manufacturing capabilities.

To make it worse typically what happens in this industry is that manufacturing is paid for up front and months later everything is shipped at once to the US. Well, with tariffs the majority of these publishers are now facing a predicament of not being able to pay for the tariffs even though they paid the manufacturing costs months ago. Many are playing a wait and see game right now and paying additional storage costs in China to see if they can wait it out. Some have already announced layoffs and closings.

To make it even worse, there is the Kickstarter/Gamefound business model as well where publishers pre-sell a game direct to consumers and retailers before it is even finished (and most importantly before it is manufactured). So people like myself have already pre-paid for games months ago but now all of those games are being held up from being shipped to the US for the same reasons. Many of these publishers will go under if this doesn't get resolved within the next 30-60 days resulting in thousands more in job losses as well as the shutdown of practically an entire industry in the US.

Trump really should have excluded products that were already bought and paid for but not shipped from this boondoggle. But like always he chose the blunt force trauma approach and damn the consequences.

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I couldn't disagree more. First, if the Trump team had waited until it figured out all of the details of their actions, it would have taken them 20 years to get started. In other words, it would never have happened. They had to move forward quickly and immediately and correct mistakes as they moved forward.

Second, when major national policy decisions are made, some individuals and companies will inevitably get hurt. When we closed so many bases in the early 90s, many small local businesses around those bases were wiped out. It was bad for those businesses, but we couldn't keep all of the bases open just to protect Tony's Pizza or Joe's dry cleaning.

Finally, most of us have been demanding change, knowing that the status quo was unsustainable. But now that change is occurring, and most of us are feeling pain, it's more than ironic that some are crying that they didn't know that change might hurt them.

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I couldn't disagree more. And trying to equate a mass change in tariff policy with a base closing? For real? Man some of you'll are really walking around with blinders on.

This is no way to run a country. I agree in getting fair trade agreements worked out and getting critical manufacturing done in the US. But Trump is not being very smart with how he gets it done.

He's right, and note the comment about the EU at the end.

.@POTUS on China: "Ultimately, they have to make a deal because otherwise they're not going to be able to deal in the United States ... If they don't make a deal, we'll set the deal." pic.twitter.com/a6xnGH2s5c

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 22, 2025

That part too.

.@POTUS on trade: "We're doing fine with China. We're doing fine with almost every country. Everybody wants to have involvement with the United States... Ultimately, we have something they want. You have to view it that way." pic.twitter.com/aylzRUahc9

— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) April 22, 2025

He says we're doing fine with China, while at the same time negotiation hasn't even started.

This may seem bad, but it actually shows that Trump knows he has unleashed something that could totally destroy his abilty to execute the rest of his agenda. China isn't going to bend over, they are going to let Trump gaslight until he is the one going to Xi for a deal.

All the while, Xi gets a peak at Trump's hand with the daily comments and Q&A in these clips. While the CCP plots their moves in private.

MediAg13 said:

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It's going to hit China way harder in a more meaningful way. The difference is that their government doesn't care at all about the welfare of their citizens. They will tolerate way more pain for their people than we will. We also have the tick tock of midterms on the horizon which makes me wonder how successful this will be. I'm in the camp that we need to give Trump time to work before we judge but it's a hard negotiation to win.

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Wrong. These people by the millions moved to the cities and uprooted their lives to get good jobs in the cities hundreds or thousands of miles from their homes. They will riot if they start to lose their jobs, their apartments and their ability to take care of their families.

There is only ONE THING the CCP fears...it is disruption and revolt.

WestAustinAg said:

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MediAg13 said:

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It's going to hit China way harder in a more meaningful way. The difference is that their government doesn't care at all about the welfare of their citizens. They will tolerate way more pain for their people than we will. We also have the tick tock of midterms on the horizon which makes me wonder how successful this will be. I'm in the camp that we need to give Trump time to work before we judge but it's a hard negotiation to win.

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Wrong. These people by the millions moved to the cities and uprooted their lives to get good jobs in the cities hundreds or thousands of miles from their homes. They will riot if they start to lose their jobs, their apartments and their ability to take care of their families.

There is only ONE THING the CCP fears...it is disruption and revolt.

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They won't riot. I've been there. The vast majority of people won't speak openly about things the govt is doing that they disagree with. They'll speak at a whisper even when no one can hear them.

My best friend a native Texan is fluent in mandarin and worked in china for a while has told me that all Chinese companies have 3 sets of books. The set the government sees, the set the investors see, and the set the CEO sees. Apparently the government is pretty hard up for money and is squeezing these companies, sounds like cash flow is needed badly.

newbie11 said:

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WestAustinAg said:

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MediAg13 said:

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It's going to hit China way harder in a more meaningful way. The difference is that their government doesn't care at all about the welfare of their citizens. They will tolerate way more pain for their people than we will. We also have the tick tock of midterms on the horizon which makes me wonder how successful this will be. I'm in the camp that we need to give Trump time to work before we judge but it's a hard negotiation to win.

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Wrong. These people by the millions moved to the cities and uprooted their lives to get good jobs in the cities hundreds or thousands of miles from their homes. They will riot if they start to lose their jobs, their apartments and their ability to take care of their families.

There is only ONE THING the CCP fears...it is disruption and revolt.

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They won't riot. I've been there. The vast majority of people won't speak openly about things the govt is doing that they disagree with. They'll speak at a whisper even when no one can hear them.

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I've been as well. All my work life has been dealing with this country. I have family in this country. They speak out all the time. They had running memes on social media in their country making fun of Xi (Winny the pooh). These people actually are quite good at raising a ruckus. They do it all the time but it doesn't get any publicity. Why? It's a one party ruled authoritarian state.

Our people don't understand their country at all and it shows. Our country is in a dominant position for now. Give them a few more years with a Biden at the helm destroying our defense, our economy and our self will and we would not be where we are know but we have a little window to take care of business.

WestAustinAg said:

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newbie11 said:

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WestAustinAg said:

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MediAg13 said:

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It's going to hit China way harder in a more meaningful way. The difference is that their government doesn't care at all about the welfare of their citizens. They will tolerate way more pain for their people than we will. We also have the tick tock of midterms on the horizon which makes me wonder how successful this will be. I'm in the camp that we need to give Trump time to work before we judge but it's a hard negotiation to win.

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Wrong. These people by the millions moved to the cities and uprooted their lives to get good jobs in the cities hundreds or thousands of miles from their homes. They will riot if they start to lose their jobs, their apartments and their ability to take care of their families.

There is only ONE THING the CCP fears...it is disruption and revolt.

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They won't riot. I've been there. The vast majority of people won't speak openly about things the govt is doing that they disagree with. They'll speak at a whisper even when no one can hear them.

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I've been as well. All my work life has been dealing with this country. I have family in this country. They speak out all the time. They had running memes on social media in their country making fun of Xi (Winny the pooh). These people actually are quite good at raising a ruckus. They do it all the time but it doesn't get any publicity. Why? It's a one party ruled authoritarian state.

Our people don't understand their country at all and it shows. Our country is in a dominant position for now. Give them a few more years with a Biden at the helm destroying our defense, our economy and our self will and we would not be where we are know but we have a little window to take care of business.

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How many of those same people are sharing Trump and Vance memes right now? They have provided Xi with a convenient scapegoat.

There a few directions China could go:

1. Xi could negotiate a new deal with Trump, but he would lose face and ultimately lose power.

2. My big worry is both sides dig in and Xi feeling threatened of being removed from office invades Taiwan. Xi will need something to distract from tariffs and wars are always good theatre.

3. Tariff impacts to China's economy weaken Xi and he is removed from office.

4. Xi needs a deal, but needs to be seen as winning the deal to the Chinese people.

Xi is an imperialist and envisions China as the World's Next Big SuperPower replacing the US in that position. These are very dangerous times we are living in right now so be informed and be alert and be prepared.

The best result is Chinese leadership replacing Xi with a more moderate/progressive leader that is non-hostile to the US and other Western countries.