Ceding US Advantage to China

3,041 Views | 34 Replies | Last: 6 mo ago by BusterAg
GMaster0
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https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/05/pentagon-national-defense-strategy-china-homeland-western-hemisphere-00546310

There is rumor that the new priority for the upcoming National Defense Strategy is the homeland and Americas with China and the Pacific taking a backseat.

This is important because it prioritizes what we build, how we train, who we train with and where we focus efforts. While not signed yet and could change, it was informed by the administration.

I believe this would be a critical mistake and cede huge advantages we have with industry, alliances, technology and military domains. We are in great power competition and losing against a rival with greater capacity, but we also have a huge advantage with many allies in the region that we could leverage these multiple tools of power. Recent diplomatic efforts have counteracted this narrative by pushing India closer to our rivals after courting Indian interests for years.

The new NDS if signed will further distance us from
competition that balances with China and yield further ground to this rival.

Thoughts and opinions? Appreciate if we can keep critical thinking applied.
HollywoodBQ
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AG
I'm guessing you've never worn the uniform and never worked with Chinese or Indians.

I've done all 3. Especially Indians every day for the past 15 years.

We have unmatched lethal capabilities and unmatched command, control and communications.

We're probably behind in things like drones but we're adapting. And like 9/11, we've still got a few glaring holes in our domestic security.

India is never going to amount to anything. They've got 1.4B people but the only ones who are the fighters are the Sikhs.

China, how are they going to project a human wave attack across the Pacific?

The only thing China can do is attack Taiwan, finish destroying Hong Kong, attack Japan, attack South Korea or attack Australia.

We can spend a decade or so focusing on the USA and let China try to find other markets for their cheap goods.
LOYAL AG
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AG
Multiple thoughts.

We have the most powerful military in the world by several orders of magnitude and can do more than one thing at a time. IMO controlling the Chinese threat involves several things including strengthening our cyber defenses, shifting supply chains away from our #1 enemy and having sufficient naval presence globally to make them aware of us at all times. We have to protect Taiwan from direct aggression so I'm confident we'll do that. However, there's also the component of China's role in the drug trade. I would be willing to bet that China had a hand in the drugs destroyed last week in that boat that we attacked. China is attacking us on multiple fronts and using the military to curtail the flow of drugs into the country is hurting their efforts.

It wouldn't be the first time the Pentagon had a major policy shift that was wrong. I was in the Army when the wall fell, 7th Infantry specifically. We were a light infantry division meaning we were foot soldiers with few vehicles. A significant amount of our training was urban and jungle with a heavy emphasis on jungle, the thought process being that south and central America were the future theaters for the Pentagon. I went to Panama for that invasion in 1989 and a year later watched in TV From my barracks as Desert Storm started. My division would have been useless in that fight so we weren't sent. I was Stinger qualified so I was told I would go if it drug out very long but it didn't and I didn't go. And, of course, we've been at war in the desert most of the 35 years since that shift to jungle warfare.

Good discussion.
IIIHorn
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Are their warships still junk?


( ...voice punctuated with a clap of distant thunder... )
nortex97
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AG
A draft paper leaked to left wing fake news Politico, probably doesn't really do anything other than to provide for silly headlines, such as the title of this thread. The Pentagon isn't going to scrap any carriers/abandon contingency planning for a hot war with China, but do we really need to ramp everything up for that conflict, and assume it happens in the South China Sea somewhere? No, imho.

We have an increasingly bellicose population taking over Canada with whom we share an enormous border, drugs pouring in via Mexico/Venezuela etc, and a need to fortify our southern border as well further so that the next possible Democrat administration can't simply open the border and sell off bits of unbuilt border fortifications. I support securing the homeland as Democrats have made so many cities/states cesspools of violence.

I know democrats love their big forever wars and bogeymen like China/Russia, but we don't actually want to go to war with them, or to talk about how we will do so endlessly as though we are producing stupid Iranian propaganda about bombing Israel.
BusterAg
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AG
1) Never get involved in a ground war in Asia.

2) We are not going to let China invade S. Korea or Japan. That would mean that S. Korea has to be invaded by China through N. Korea. Vietnam / Cambodia have more problematic geographies, and I don't think Americans have the stomach for another south Asia ground war like Vietnam.

3) Our Navy could absolutely eliminate China's navy in a very lop-sided war.

4) China has nukes. They are rational people, and also don't want MAD, but the threat is there. We can't push China so much that the CCP feels like we are an existential threat to the CCP, because they will absolutely consider ending the human race before giving up control of China.

I think that focusing on our hemisphere is not a bad idea.
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
YouBet
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AG
Completely unsurprising. Anyone who follows any of the geopolitical prognosticators has called this for a few years now. We can't afford to patrol the oceans and guarantee free trade for the entire planet anymore. Our debt is spinning out of control and will be our most expensive line item in a few years. Money going to service debt means no money to anywhere else.

I swear, if Zeihan didn't have a touch of TDS, I would think he's consulting personally with Trump. I'm reading his latest book which is almost solely about this very topic ie retreating to the Western Hemisphere while maintaining some of our more strategic plays outside of it.

And if you believe him and most anyone else that follows China...they are f'ed more so than any other country. Massive population declines already underway, they have no blue ocean Navy so they can't project force outside of their immediate vicinity, and they can't feed their people or keep the country running, if we stop patrolling the oceans keeping maritime trade safe.

I'm a massive fan of us putting focus back on the Western Hemisphere. Monroe Doctrine 2.0, baby. We've ignored our backyard for far too long.
YouBet
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AG
I'm going to copy and paste a post I made almost 4 years ago on this topic. Maybe Trump saw my post and used it as blueprint. Ha.:




Considering the state of global geopolitics and its relative breakdown as US imperial hegemony wanes, I would propose and adamantly argue that our priorities should shift and shift dramatically. I think our priorities from a regional perspective should be the following:

1. America First
Really all that matters. If we don't defeat the Democrats and completely destroy them then everything after this is moot.

2. Western Hemisphere
Completely and utterly neglected. We are going to have more in common culturally and ethnically with people in this hemisphere than we do with people in the Old World here in just a few years. This is already true in the southern half of the USA.

We have massive security issues with human smuggling, hard core drugs that can kill you instantly (fentanyl), and general degradation of citizenship right now...today. Forsaking our own southern border and sovereignty on one hand while blustering about the sovereignly of other countries on the other side of the world is one of the more hypocritical and galling things I've seen in a while.

We have a burgeoning Nazi leftist regime in Canada that is now cutting people out of society for wrong think. Canada needs to be sanctioned and punished for this.

We could dramatically improve our supply chain with re-shoring or near-shoring back to the Western Hemisphere negating China's influence.

Untold raw resources not being leveraged.

We have multiple failed states (Venezuela, Cuba, Haiti) that directly impact us which we do nothing about until we are absolutely forced to and even then, that's halfhearted. If we are going to spend aid money, then cut all funds for Old World and redirect over here.

3. Asia
China is our largest enemy and is actively at war with us on non-traditional fronts.

Taiwan is an IT chokepoint for the entire planet making them a critical strategic priority for us at least until we get our own chip production ramped up. Will take several years to offset dependency though.

Japan is arguably our #1 ally or should be considering they are one of the few countries left on the planet that has any common sense left (see COVID). They have a top 2 Navy on the planet and are critical to containing China in their region.

India is the largest "democracy" on the planet and a key ally we should be courting to offset China.

Shockingly, we are with open eyes walking into a marriage with Satan (China) when it comes to mandating EV usage in this country. China has a near monopoly on the raw resources required to meet this mandate and there is really no alternative on the horizon. It's one of the most ridiculous, known strategic blunders in modern American history and we are actively pursuing it. See Russian puppetry of Germany right now for immediate analogy.

4. Europe
Currently, still our top priority or arguably 1B behind 1A Asia for no other reason than "it's what we've always done". It's a classic business management blunder on a global scale.

Europe produces 70-80% the GDP of the US making them the second largest economic area on the planet. They have 100M more people than the US. Comparatively, to Russia, this puts their GDP anywhere from 14x to 18x the GDP of Russia and 4x the population.

If Russia is their boogeyman, Europe has the resources and capabilities to more than counter Russia if they wanted to.

There is zero reason or excuse for us to be as committed in Europe to the level we are currently considering their massive gains in economic prowess and untapped capability.

5. Africa
Not much to go on here other than we know China is trying to take it over for resources.

I would ensure we do things that don't just give them unfettered, exclusive access to resources that harden the monopolies they already have.

6. Middle East
Abandon it. Tactical glassing as containment strategy.

Take leash off of Israel and let them own their fate.

Summary: completely rebalance / reallocate resources accordingly to the above list.
nortex97
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AG
Nice job!
ETFan
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I think we're big enough, capable enough, to compete on both stages. We always have?

Suddenly we can't because, reasons. It's very odd.

Edit: Always fun coming in on threads where answers are "purge the land of democrats". Alright [nvm]
infinity ag
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HollywoodBQ said:

I'm guessing you've never worn the uniform and never worked with Chinese or Indians.

I've done all 3. Especially Indians every day for the past 15 years.

We have unmatched lethal capabilities and unmatched command, control and communications.

We're probably behind in things like drones but we're adapting. And like 9/11, we've still got a few glaring holes in our domestic security.

India is never going to amount to anything. They've got 1.4B people but the only ones who are the fighters are the Sikhs.

China, how are they going to project a human wave attack across the Pacific?

The only thing China can do is attack Taiwan, finish destroying Hong Kong, attack Japan, attack South Korea or attack Australia.

We can spend a decade or so focusing on the USA and let China try to find other markets for their cheap goods.


This is part of the racist British "martial races" theory which is just a ploy to divide and rule. Didn't work though. Don't make the same mistake. Idiot Navarro tried it with the "Brahmins stealing your money" nonsense and he got a lot of hate for it.

Don't under-estimate anyone.
LMCane
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There is no doubt that the Department of War still views a war with China as their most significant priority.

hence the move from COIN back to arming tanks and the B-21 Bomber.
YouBet
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AG
ETFan said:

I think we're big enough, capable enough, to compete on both stages. We always have?

Suddenly we can't because, reasons. It's very odd.

Edit: Always fun coming in on threads where answers are "purge the land of democrats". Alright [nvm]


Read up on history, our financial situation, and changing global realities and you will find the reasons. We haven't always competed on both stages. It's just been since post WWII in which this entire Bretton Woods era is an outlier in human history. So, it's not odd in the least.

Regarding Democrats, quit trying to destroy what made America great and you won't see comments like that. That's on you and your ilk.
LMCane
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if we didn't care anymore about China...


why is the Navy building a huge amount of new ships?
YouBet
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AG
LMCane said:

if we didn't care anymore about China...


why is the Navy building a huge amount of new ships?


Because we account for <= 1% of the ships now built and owned. It's more of a re-shoring movement than a fight China movement. If we are truly going to focus and retrench to the WH, then we need our own ships so we can own our maritime fate. I'm also talking about merchant ships of which we've almost totally abandoned making.
Gigem_94
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AG
I'm not sure which is more credible - Politico or the National Enquirer.
Get Off My Lawn
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A. Don't trust the rumor mill
B. An onion approach is wise - ensuring adequate home defense capabilities has taken a back seat to force projection for about 82 years now but remains critical. Don't get complacent.
C. Our vast superiority in capital intensive military assets helps to avoid peer to peer conflict, but pushes adversaries into asymmetric spaces (cyber, drones, ai)
D. The enemy within remains our most lethal threat at the moment. Throttle immigration, eviscerate dark financing of anti-Protestant cultural, scale back federal manipulation (monetary, regulatory, legal), restore conditions for domestic industry & middle class prosperity.

Violent conflict is simply an extreme end of diplomacy and diplomacy starts with domestic priorities.
YouBet
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AG
Gigem_94 said:

I'm not sure which is more credible - Politico or the National Enquirer.


Yeah, but you can't write this particular story off. This has been foreseen for some time.
93MarineHorn
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Quote:

There is rumor that the new priority for the upcoming National Defense Strategy is the homeland and Americas with China and the Pacific taking a backseat.


Oh, ok, let's all just run with the premise that the US is practically abandoning the Pacific. "We're ceding influence to the Chinese, oh NO!!!".

China is a threat. But they are no match for the US. Shifting a little more attention to our side of the world seems prudent.
HollywoodBQ
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AG
infinity ag said:

HollywoodBQ said:

I'm guessing you've never worn the uniform and never worked with Chinese or Indians.

I've done all 3. Especially Indians every day for the past 15 years.

We have unmatched lethal capabilities and unmatched command, control and communications.

We're probably behind in things like drones but we're adapting. And like 9/11, we've still got a few glaring holes in our domestic security.

India is never going to amount to anything. They've got 1.4B people but the only ones who are the fighters are the Sikhs.

China, how are they going to project a human wave attack across the Pacific?

The only thing China can do is attack Taiwan, finish destroying Hong Kong, attack Japan, attack South Korea or attack Australia.

We can spend a decade or so focusing on the USA and let China try to find other markets for their cheap goods.


This is part of the racist British "martial races" theory which is just a ploy to divide and rule. Didn't work though. Don't make the same mistake. Idiot Navarro tried it with the "Brahmins stealing your money" nonsense and he got a lot of hate for it.

Don't under-estimate anyone.

Fascinating. Thanks for sharing that term. I'd never heard "martial race".

I only have the Bollywood movies and my own observations from many trips to India, including Goa where there's a big Navy Training facility.

I do like the fact to prove my point that Sikhs are 600% over-represented in the Indian Army.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martial_race

I saw quite a few Sikhs in the Navy when I was in Goa.

Also, thanks for the reminder, I forgot about the Gurkhas.

Sure, you should never under estimate anyone but... you also shouldn't over estimate either.

Anecdotally, find me a Bollywood movie or TV product where the warrior is anything other than a Sikh male. The only one I can think of is Neerja.

My favorite of course is Anil Kapoor as "Jai Singh Rathod" in the Indian "24".
nortex97
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AG
The Indian military is not a particularly credible combat force, imho, and certainly not a threat to American/Sino interests, regardless of their caste structure(s).


Just posting that for laughs. My favorite part was the guy/gal on a laptop at the start.

Again, we have other priorities. I do hope an Indian trade deal is somehow worked out. It seems to have been 'back-burnered.' There are things Trump could accomplish that would be very beneficial to us long term, and I have no enmity for the people of India, who continue to largely battle the threat from the (much worse) folks over in Pakistan/Bangladesh to a large degree.
LOYAL AG
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AG
nortex97 said:

The Indian military is not a particularly credible combat force, imho, and certainly not a threat to American/Sino interests, regardless of their caste structure(s).


Just posting that for laughs. My favorite part was the guy/gal on a laptop at the start.

Again, we have other priorities. I do hope an Indian trade deal is somehow worked out. It seems to have been 'back-burnered.' There are things Trump could accomplish that would be very beneficial to us long term, and I have no enmity for the people of India, who continue to largely battle the threat from the (much worse) folks over in Pakistan/Bangladesh to a large degree.


Hey I remember when we thought break dancing would help curb gang violence. That went well.
K2-HMFIC
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GMaster0
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A Pacific focused NDS has had bipartisan support for the past few years. I think the fact that the most of the world 's GDP and economic growth in the Pacific has made this possible and be seen as center of gravity for continue U.S. prosperity.

Actions of other states will always have influence on U.S. defense interests such as the invasion of Kuwait and 9/11. But our continued economic and technological advantages are centered on the Pacific and competition with China.

Moving away from the Quad and other Pacific nations hurts these interests, reducing the strategy of integrated deterrence, which focused on our alliances as a key military and economic counterbalance to China. But I think the biggest move in the NDS will be the reallocation of resources from ship building to other projects like the "Golden Dome." Which may not be actually feasible or offer little value for defense provided versus dollars spent. Also the advantage of alliances may falter as well, which are critical for land or sea basing, military overflight, etc.
gbaby23
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AG
Good riddance to India. They were never an ally. They were just hoping to infiltrate and co-opt for their own benefit once they had the requisite numbers in America. That is why they, along the Chinese and every other fifth column foreign group, need to be deported.

FCBlitz
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GMaster0 said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2025/09/05/pentagon-national-defense-strategy-china-homeland-western-hemisphere-00546310

There is rumor that the new priority for the upcoming National Defense Strategy is the homeland and Americas with China and the Pacific taking a backseat.

This is important because it prioritizes what we build, how we train, who we train with and where we focus efforts. While not signed yet and could change, it was informed by the administration.

I believe this would be a critical mistake and cede huge advantages we have with industry, alliances, technology and military domains. We are in great power competition and losing against a rival with greater capacity, but we also have a huge advantage with many allies in the region that we could leverage these multiple tools of power. Recent diplomatic efforts have counteracted this narrative by pushing India closer to our rivals after courting Indian interests for years.

The new NDS if signed will further distance us from
competition that balances with China and yield further ground to this rival.

Thoughts and opinions? Appreciate if we can keep critical thinking applied.


I can't add context….but any claim similar to this is not only wrong, but I would add that I would suspect the person passing this type of claim forward in the manner is either a FA, someone consumed with TDS or just a all around hole.
FCBlitz
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gbaby23 said:

Good riddance to India. They were never an ally. They were just hoping to infiltrate and co-opt for their own benefit once they had the requisite numbers in America. That is why they, along the Chinese and every other fifth column foreign group, need to be deported.




We need India…..stop being sensitive to collection. Everyone does it.
Get Off My Lawn
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FCBlitz said:

gbaby23 said:

Good riddance to India. They were never an ally. They were just hoping to infiltrate and co-opt for their own benefit once they had the requisite numbers in America. That is why they, along the Chinese and every other fifth column foreign group, need to be deported.




We need India…..stop being sensitive to collection. Everyone does it.
Is this sarcasm? Honestly curious as to the value proposition for India & Indians to our nation, let alone "need."
BTKAG97
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AG
If not for the US, China would NOT be the global superpower that it is today. It might be a global power but not at the level that it currently is.
TheBonifaceOption
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infinity ag said:

HollywoodBQ said:

I'm guessing you've never worn the uniform and never worked with Chinese or Indians.

I've done all 3. Especially Indians every day for the past 15 years.

We have unmatched lethal capabilities and unmatched command, control and communications.

We're probably behind in things like drones but we're adapting. And like 9/11, we've still got a few glaring holes in our domestic security.

India is never going to amount to anything. They've got 1.4B people but the only ones who are the fighters are the Sikhs.

China, how are they going to project a human wave attack across the Pacific?

The only thing China can do is attack Taiwan, finish destroying Hong Kong, attack Japan, attack South Korea or attack Australia.

We can spend a decade or so focusing on the USA and let China try to find other markets for their cheap goods.


This is part of the racist British "martial races" theory which is just a ploy to divide and rule. Didn't work though. Don't make the same mistake. Idiot Navarro tried it with the "Brahmins stealing your money" nonsense and he got a lot of hate for it.

Don't under-estimate anyone.

India cannot even dominate Pakistan and you think they have the military competency to be a geopolitical power?
ErnestEndeavor
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The biggest long-term error related to China in the last 30 years was rubber stamping their admittance into the WTO. Everyone knew they would cheat and they did. China never kept the promises they made for reform and honest trade. Many in opposition rightfully pointed out that China would encourage theft of intellectual property.

The hope was that not only would US corporations hugely benefit financially from opening up new markets and cheaper manufacturing (which happened) but that rapid economic growth would work toward reform within the communist party. It did but not in the way the West wanted it. China is now no longer communist. They are "socialist with Chinese characteristics." They embrace free market economics when it's convenient to them but always with a government boot on the so-called private companies which live there.

They are actually the closest thing in the modern world to the dream of Mussolini. Their economics are fascist, not communist.
JFABNRGR
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AG
YouBet said:

I'm going to copy and paste a post I made almost 4 years ago on this topic. Maybe Trump saw my post and used it as blueprint. Ha.:




Considering the state of global geopolitics and its relative breakdown as US imperial hegemony wanes, I would propose and adamantly argue that our priorities should shift and shift dramatically. I think our priorities from a regional perspective should be the following:

1. America First
Really all that matters. If we don't defeat the Democrats and completely destroy them then everything after this is moot.

2. Western Hemisphere
Completely and utterly neglected. We are going to have more in common culturally and ethnically with people in this hemisphere than we do with people in the Old World here in just a few years. This is already true in the southern half of the USA.

We have massive security issues with human smuggling, hard core drugs that can kill you instantly (fentanyl), and general degradation of citizenship right now...today. Forsaking our own southern border and sovereignty on one hand while blustering about the sovereignly of other countries on the other side of the world is one of the more hypocritical and galling things I've seen in a while.

We have a burgeoning Nazi leftist regime in Canada that is now cutting people out of society for wrong think. Canada needs to be sanctioned and punished for this.

We could dramatically improve our supply chain with re-shoring or near-shoring back to the Western Hemisphere negating China's influence.

Untold raw resources not being leveraged.

We have multiple failed states (Venezuela, Cuba, Haiti) that directly impact us which we do nothing about until we are absolutely forced to and even then, that's halfhearted. If we are going to spend aid money, then cut all funds for Old World and redirect over here.

3. Asia
China is our largest enemy and is actively at war with us on non-traditional fronts.

Taiwan is an IT chokepoint for the entire planet making them a critical strategic priority for us at least until we get our own chip production ramped up. Will take several years to offset dependency though.

Japan is arguably our #1 ally or should be considering they are one of the few countries left on the planet that has any common sense left (see COVID). They have a top 2 Navy on the planet and are critical to containing China in their region.

India is the largest "democracy" on the planet and a key ally we should be courting to offset China.

Shockingly, we are with open eyes walking into a marriage with Satan (China) when it comes to mandating EV usage in this country. China has a near monopoly on the raw resources required to meet this mandate and there is really no alternative on the horizon. It's one of the most ridiculous, known strategic blunders in modern American history and we are actively pursuing it. See Russian puppetry of Germany right now for immediate analogy.

4. Europe
Currently, still our top priority or arguably 1B behind 1A Asia for no other reason than "it's what we've always done". It's a classic business management blunder on a global scale.

Europe produces 70-80% the GDP of the US making them the second largest economic area on the planet. They have 100M more people than the US. Comparatively, to Russia, this puts their GDP anywhere from 14x to 18x the GDP of Russia and 4x the population.

If Russia is their boogeyman, Europe has the resources and capabilities to more than counter Russia if they wanted to.

There is zero reason or excuse for us to be as committed in Europe to the level we are currently considering their massive gains in economic prowess and untapped capability.

5. Africa
Not much to go on here other than we know China is trying to take it over for resources.

I would ensure we do things that don't just give them unfettered, exclusive access to resources that harden the monopolies they already have.

6. Middle East
Abandon it. Tactical glassing as containment strategy.

Take leash off of Israel and let them own their fate.

Summary: completely rebalance / reallocate resources accordingly to the above list.



These are really goof points but left out the threat of economic collapse here if china takes taiwan, given our massive debt problem. If china takes taiwan, other tyrants will also start taking sovereign territories, while the use of the American dollar in global trade will shrink exponentially. When this happens and the fed prints up funny money there will be few buyers left for our extremely devalued currency and the debt balloon will burst.

We should be arming the **** outta anybody and anything willing to shoot at the chinese. Meanwhile accelerating metals mining, chip manufacturing, and all other critical import item manufacturing at Elon Musk type speed here in the west.
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
WestHoustonAg79
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FCBlitz said:

gbaby23 said:

Good riddance to India. They were never an ally. They were just hoping to infiltrate and co-opt for their own benefit once they had the requisite numbers in America. That is why they, along the Chinese and every other fifth column foreign group, need to be deported.




We need India…..stop being sensitive to collection. Everyone does it.


I need India…… Overnight (their today or tomorrow whichever way you want to look at it) their team is pulling tax rates for a large dataset that is a PIA for us simple brokers to grind through. Keep cheap labor going!

(I'm dead serious about my case study but actually would like to pay some young gun to do it here, not my decision).

I am a high level fan of de-globalization but realize it's not that simple. Would love to snap our fingers and have manufacturing back online but that's not reality.
Mega Lops
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AG
BusterAg said:

1) Never get involved in a ground war in Asia.
BusterAg
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I have it on good authority that there is a person in the White House whose entire job is to lurk F16 and related Twitter accounts.

Jr. level staffer, but, hey. I'm jealous.
It takes a special kind of brainwashed useful idiot to politically defend government fraud, waste, and abuse.
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