YouBet said:

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Anyone below AOC in that list is dumb to even list. Having to even acknowledge that AOC is legitimately on the list is dumb in and of itself.

However, the fascinating thing happening right now within the Democrat party is that they are in total chaos and navigating an insurgency. The commies are doing everything they can to primary anyone they can in the Democrat Party. So, Gavin is going to have to stay way hard left during his primary to beat AOC. And then he's going to have to abandon most of what he just espoused in the general.

This always happens but conceivably not to the level of what he will likely have to do in '28. As in, he will have to wholesale abandon policy positions moving from primary to general and then be called a traitor by the Democrats.

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That betting line can't be right because it does not include Kamala and Shapiro and Fetterman

Kamala is DEFINITELY running for President!!

fc2112 said:

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While still a ways off, there are two candidates really separating themselves from the field - Newsom and Vance. I welcome this.

That being said - Newsom will be 10X better than Kamala was. If you have listened to him on a podcast or other interview, he is smooth and articulate. He will not drive away black and Hispanic men like cackling Kamala did.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2025/10/15/presidential-election-2028-odds-ivank-trump-jared-kushner-oct-15-update/86703778007/

Top 10 odds for winning the 2028 election

JD Vance: +200

Gavin Newsom: +350

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez: +1200

Pete Buttigieg: +1600

Marco Rubio: +2000

Donald Trump Sr.: +2500

Donald Trump Jr.: +2500

Ivanka Trump: +2500

Gretchen Whitmer: +2500

Andy Beshear: +2500

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I think Ivanka is the best option on that list. She's serious and smart and not in it for attention or check marks/likes on social media. Don Jr. Would be fun to party with, but not someone you want running the country. Even the president has said Junior is an idiot before in interviews. Elect Ivanka and you'd also get her husband who can handle the middle east.

LMCane said:

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YouBet said:

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Anyone below AOC in that list is dumb to even list. Having to even acknowledge that AOC is legitimately on the list is dumb in and of itself.

However, the fascinating thing happening right now within the Democrat party is that they are in total chaos and navigating an insurgency. The commies are doing everything they can to primary anyone they can in the Democrat Party. So, Gavin is going to have to stay way hard left during his primary to beat AOC. And then he's going to have to abandon most of what he just espoused in the general.

This always happens but conceivably not to the level of what he will likely have to do in '28. As in, he will have to wholesale abandon policy positions moving from primary to general and then be called a traitor by the Democrats.

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That betting line can't be right because it does not include Kamala and Shapiro and Fetterman

Kamala is DEFINITELY running for President!!

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I saw a clip on the internet a month or so ago of some interview with Harris and she said she wasn't running for any office again because she thinks the system is broken.

How is Shapiro not on the list…I would never vote for him, but he would seem to be the most normal/rational of the Dems.

YouBet said:

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However, the fascinating thing happening right now within the Democrat party is that they are in total chaos and navigating an insurgency. The commies are doing everything they can to primary anyone they can in the Democrat Party. So, Gavin is going to have to stay way hard left during his primary to beat AOC. And then he's going to have to abandon most of what he just espoused in the general.

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If you can stay dispassionate, I agree that this is super interesting. Just shy of 50% of the Democrat party is in the progressive caucus, and I'm sure another 10% is progressive but wants to avoid the label. Meanwhile you've got a sizable, but less-than-majority, group of center left folks like Ezra Klein who are screaming "look at the data. Our overly regulated government is the reason nothing gets done. We desperately need to reform our bureaucracy and make it easier to build." This position is not just rejected by the hard left, but viewed as heresy that should be punished. That is, to them, it isn't enough to just beat Ezra's movement in elections, they want to make him unwelcome in the party.

It'll be interesting to see where that sizable chunk of the electorate goes when the progs fully take control and the center left abundance types are thrown out.

murphyag said:

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LMCane said:

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YouBet said:

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Anyone below AOC in that list is dumb to even list. Having to even acknowledge that AOC is legitimately on the list is dumb in and of itself.

However, the fascinating thing happening right now within the Democrat party is that they are in total chaos and navigating an insurgency. The commies are doing everything they can to primary anyone they can in the Democrat Party. So, Gavin is going to have to stay way hard left during his primary to beat AOC. And then he's going to have to abandon most of what he just espoused in the general.

This always happens but conceivably not to the level of what he will likely have to do in '28. As in, he will have to wholesale abandon policy positions moving from primary to general and then be called a traitor by the Democrats.

---

That betting line can't be right because it does not include Kamala and Shapiro and Fetterman

Kamala is DEFINITELY running for President!!

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I saw a clip on the internet a month or so ago of some interview with Harris and she said she wasn't running for any office again because she thinks the system is broken.

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It is broken. Many voters are being sent home and some are going to on expenses paid vacations. All inclusive no less.