YouBet said:
If Israel recognizes it, we might do so and it will stop there. Good luck to them. They will need it.
It's got a decent chance, and the trade offs I guess might impact Ethiopia quite a bit, which is the 'big' player in the area. Again, not my expertise but I like the sounds of this;
Keep in mind the two countries (well, and Libya I guess) most likely to keep flooding 'refugees' into Europe over the next 30 years are Ethiopia and Nigeria (Lagos alone is over 20 million people now), respectfully. Full text from above:
Quote:
1) It drives Ilhan Omar and other terrible people crazy and I really enjoy that.
2) Somaliland has been effectively independent since 1991 after Ilhan Omar's father tried to genocide them all and failed.
One of the chief arguments against separatism is that it can turn the region into Somalia, but Somalia is already Somalia and Somaliland is functioning much better than it's hostile neighbour for decades now.
3) It will prevent the wider war in East Africa that bubbles up every decade or so and kills millions.
Look at Ethiopia, it is landlocked. It wasn't always that way but the Cold War and various ethnic conflicts created Eritrea (black North Korea) and for a variety of reasons, including a few wars the two nations, they will not cooperate.
You are Ethiopia, you need access to a port or else your economy collapses and millions will die as society falls apart rapidly. So currently over 95% of your goods travel trough Djibouti which brings its own problems as that isn't the most functional country either making trade through there volatile.
This is why Ethiopia will do anything to get a viable stable port, including war. However, much better for everyone involved is a stable country on the ocean right on Ethiopia's border willing to honour a free trade agreement, and oh look one just popped up!
This has the potential to makes Ethiopia and Somaliland much richer, benefiting the entire region and eliminating one of the primary causes of the conflict in East Africa over the last century.
All of those points are acceptable to me, but I just hope our foreign policy brain trust/Cocom Africa etc. don't somehow decide to bomb and destabilize Somaliland for some idiotic reason which would be par for the course. That Omar's pop and clan committed a genocide of over 200K there to try to wipe out their 'rivals' tells me all I need to know about which team to 'pull for.'