rate cut 1/4.... new rate range: 3.50%3.75%

6,776 Views | 89 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by tysker
Dungeon Crawler Carl
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doubledog
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flown-the-coop said:

Danny Vermin said:

The fact that Gas is so cheap, at least here in Texas, gives lots of people alot of extra income. I've talked to quite a few rideshare drivers recently and just about all of them are actually thankful even if they hate Trump. I remind them that it would be close to 4 bucks a gallon if heels up were President.

Not everyone in Texas fancies cheap oil.

I can see that the Tesla people are upset.
flown-the-coop
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Dungeon Crawler Carl said:



Assume this same logic applies under Biden? So raising rates under Biden was all about cooling the RED HOT Bidenomics?

Darth should troll elsewhere.
flown-the-coop
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doubledog said:

flown-the-coop said:

Danny Vermin said:

The fact that Gas is so cheap, at least here in Texas, gives lots of people alot of extra income. I've talked to quite a few rideshare drivers recently and just about all of them are actually thankful even if they hate Trump. I remind them that it would be close to 4 bucks a gallon if heels up were President.

Not everyone in Texas fancies cheap oil.

I can see that the Tesla people are upset.

thinking a bit more about the millions who work in O&G.
Dungeon Crawler Carl
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flown-the-coop said:

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:



Assume this same logic applies under Biden? So raising rates under Biden was all about cooling the RED HOT Bidenomics?

Darth should troll elsewhere.


You should really get out of the red-team/blue-team weeds and look at the bigger economic picture.......

Here's a hint for you.....Party affiliation doesn't matter. Whoever is sitting in the WH is not going to stop printing until the wheels come off. $38Trillion now, $50 trillion or more at the end of 47s term. whoever is 48, is going to kick that up to $100 trillion.


We are in the parabolic phase of debt accumulation......
richardag
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flown-the-coop said:

Queso1 said:

flown-the-coop said:

Queso1 said:

A rate cut is a poison cookie to the middle class, but the benefit goes to DC and corporations. They will continue to destroy us until we are all destitute.

So higher fed rates benefit the middle class. Got it.




During an inflationary period, yes.

Real wages are outpacing the modest and dropping "inflation". To act like further rate cuts would hurt the middle class is making a lot of assumptions that simply are not reasonable.

It amazes me people ignore this fact that currently wages outpace inflation. To accomplish this in the short span this Administration has been in office is quite remarkable.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
richardag
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flown-the-coop said:

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:



Assume this same logic applies under Biden? So raising rates under Biden was all about cooling the RED HOT Bidenomics?

Darth should troll elsewhere.

Agreed.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
Heineken-Ashi
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richardag said:

flown-the-coop said:

Queso1 said:

flown-the-coop said:

Queso1 said:

A rate cut is a poison cookie to the middle class, but the benefit goes to DC and corporations. They will continue to destroy us until we are all destitute.

So higher fed rates benefit the middle class. Got it.




During an inflationary period, yes.

Real wages are outpacing the modest and dropping "inflation". To act like further rate cuts would hurt the middle class is making a lot of assumptions that simply are not reasonable.

It amazes me people ignore this fact that currently wages outpace inflation. To accomplish this in the short span this Administration has been in office is quite remarkable.

Would need at least 10 years of this pace just to catch up with total inflation since 2020.

And if you broke down the wages between high earners, mid earners, and low earners, you would see that only the high earners are outpacing.
YouBet
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Geminiv said:

LMCane said:

ETFan said:

- housing sector remains weak
- tariffs causing inflation
- job market cooling
- rate cut

anything else?

Are we getting numbers ever again or just "hot" "cold" "trust me bro".


LMAO

what "caused" inflation when it was 9.1% under Joe Biden?!?!

but suddenly you know with certainty the 2.7% inflation of today is caused by "tariffs"!

jobs were just shown to be highest in six months.


That # is mainly for lazy people that just accept information without research. When Biden had 9% inflation. What was the global average of inflation? Supply chain issues and covid.
Difference is Trump is a man made self made crisis his policies are the problem. Skewing #s and manipulating data don't solve the problem. They may keep the base with blinders. Just meet the problem head on and face it. Rather than attempt to mislead to save face.

Then you don't understand how inflation works which makes sense since I think you are a Democrat.

It's money supply. Supply chain issues from Covid contributed, but only the economically illiterate ignore we printed 40% of all money ever under Trump but more so under Biden which is historical fact.

The supply chain issues were the transitory part of inflation. Unfortunately, the money supply increasing at astronomical rates made it permanent. We added $2T to annual spending due to COVID that hasn't gone away.

Does this help your understanding?
tysker
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Quote:

We added $2T to annual spending due to COVID that hasn't gone away.

Yes, added to the already increasing annual deficit. If only some group had the power to reduce this number
Mr Mojo Risin
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Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

flown-the-coop said:

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:



Assume this same logic applies under Biden? So raising rates under Biden was all about cooling the RED HOT Bidenomics?

Darth should troll elsewhere.


You should really get out of the red-team/blue-team weeds and look at the bigger economic picture.......

Here's a hint for you.....Party affiliation doesn't matter. Whoever is sitting in the WH is not going to stop printing until the wheels come off. $38Trillion now, $50 trillion or more at the end of 47s term. whoever is 48, is going to kick that up to $100 trillion.


We are in the parabolic phase of debt accumulation......



As long as we don't go plaid...
America was built on speed, hot, nasty, badass speed.
YouBet
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Mr.Milkshake said:

I don't think 90% of ppl remember what an actual recession looks like.

Related and more accurate because it has been much less common is that most people didn't/don't remember what actual inflation looks like because we've kept it tamped down for decades with short-term money policy.

Once we massively inflated money supply during COVID everyone got a taste of what real inflation looks like since it's been since the late 70s since anyone has really experienced it. Two anecdotes I'll point out on this:

1. Goldman Sachs of all people opened their annual investment outlook in 2022 with this line: "One of the biggest surprises of 2021 was the surge in inflation." The sheer idiocy of someone like GS stating that boggles the mind considering how much money we had put into the money supply...something that the supposed premier financial firm on this planet should obviously be aware of.


2. Back to your point, I listened to an older gentleman on CNBC around this time period (can't remember who) making these exact points about the money supply causing inflation. It's literally the definition of inflation. But his point was that it had been so long since we had actually seen inflation that all of the analysts generating all of the analysis at the big firms were too young to ever actually experience it and thus recognize it for what it was.
flown-the-coop
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Heineken-Ashi said:

richardag said:

flown-the-coop said:

Queso1 said:

flown-the-coop said:

Queso1 said:

A rate cut is a poison cookie to the middle class, but the benefit goes to DC and corporations. They will continue to destroy us until we are all destitute.

So higher fed rates benefit the middle class. Got it.




During an inflationary period, yes.

Real wages are outpacing the modest and dropping "inflation". To act like further rate cuts would hurt the middle class is making a lot of assumptions that simply are not reasonable.

It amazes me people ignore this fact that currently wages outpace inflation. To accomplish this in the short span this Administration has been in office is quite remarkable.

Would need at least 10 years of this pace just to catch up with total inflation since 2020.

And if you broke down the wages between high earners, mid earners, and low earners, you would see that only the high earners are outpacing.

How much is skewed by 2.5million low wage earners leaving the Country?

Regarding your first point, people will just have to spend less for 10 years. It wasn't just supply chain issues COVID impacted. People spent like credit card juiced teenage girls unaccompanied at a mall. That cannot be maintained.
flown-the-coop
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Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

flown-the-coop said:

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:



Assume this same logic applies under Biden? So raising rates under Biden was all about cooling the RED HOT Bidenomics?

Darth should troll elsewhere.


You should really get out of the red-team/blue-team weeds and look at the bigger economic picture.......

Here's a hint for you.....Party affiliation doesn't matter. Whoever is sitting in the WH is not going to stop printing until the wheels come off. $38Trillion now, $50 trillion or more at the end of 47s term. whoever is 48, is going to kick that up to $100 trillion.


We are in the parabolic phase of debt accumulation......


Assets > Liabilities. I can sleep just fine here in these United States.
tysker
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flown-the-coop said:

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

flown-the-coop said:

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:



Assume this same logic applies under Biden? So raising rates under Biden was all about cooling the RED HOT Bidenomics?

Darth should troll elsewhere.


You should really get out of the red-team/blue-team weeds and look at the bigger economic picture.......

Here's a hint for you.....Party affiliation doesn't matter. Whoever is sitting in the WH is not going to stop printing until the wheels come off. $38Trillion now, $50 trillion or more at the end of 47s term. whoever is 48, is going to kick that up to $100 trillion.


We are in the parabolic phase of debt accumulation......


Assets > Liabilities. I can sleep just fine here in these United States.

How long can your assets>liabilities framework withstand the increasing rate of expenses with declining rates of revenue?
tysker
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Quote:

2. Back to your point, I listened to an older gentleman on CNBC around this time period (can't remember who) making these exact points about the money supply causing inflation. It's literally the definition of inflation. But his point was that it had been so long since we had actually seen inflation that all of the analysts generating all of the analysis at the big firms were too young to ever actually experience it and thus recognize it for what it was.

We have seen lots of inflation since the GFC, but it was inflation measured in terms of asset prices, not consumer prices. The whole point of TARP and QE was to inflate real estate prices, backstop bond and insurance prices, and provide liquidity for the stock market. All of these asset classes have seen dramatic inflation since 2010.

I would argue we really haven seen any significant medium-term consumer facing inflation since the 70s, for better or worse. Along those lines, I suspect the Fed will need to adjust it's annual inflation goal from 2% to 3%, which is basically a 50% increase. When you consider compounding, future generations are going to get screwed if they don't have real assets today to offset future higher costs of goods.
YouBet
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tysker said:

Quote:

2. Back to your point, I listened to an older gentleman on CNBC around this time period (can't remember who) making these exact points about the money supply causing inflation. It's literally the definition of inflation. But his point was that it had been so long since we had actually seen inflation that all of the analysts generating all of the analysis at the big firms were too young to ever actually experience it and thus recognize it for what it was.

We have seen lots of inflation since the GFC, but it was inflation measured in terms of asset prices, not consumer prices. The whole point of TARP and QE was to inflate real estate prices, backstop bond and insurance prices, and provide liquidity for the stock market. All of these asset classes have seen dramatic inflation since 2010.

I would argue we really haven seen any significant medium-term consumer facing inflation since the 70s, for better or worse. Along those lines, I suspect the Fed will need to adjust it's annual inflation goal from 2% to 3%, which is basically a 50% increase. When you consider compounding, future generations are going to get screwed if they don't have real assets today to offset future higher costs of goods.

That's what he was talking about. Agree on the 3%. I think this incessant desire to get back to 2% as the standard is delusional folly. I don't see how it's possible with all of the new spending and money in the system.
BigRobSA
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Heineken-Ashi said:

richardag said:

flown-the-coop said:

Real wages are outpacing the modest and dropping "inflation". To act like further rate cuts would hurt the middle class is making a lot of assumptions that simply are not reasonable.

It amazes me people ignore this fact that currently wages outpace inflation. To accomplish this in the short span this Administration has been in office is quite remarkable.

Would need at least 10 years of this pace just to catch up with total inflation since 2020.

And if you broke down the wages between high earners, mid earners, and low earners, you would see that only the high earners are outpacing.

Not to mention that govt inflation numbers are as book-cooked as their unemployment, and all other, numbers.

Quit believing what these govt tards are telling you and just go buy **** . "Inflation" isn't low. Groceries, for example, are still going up (sometimes faster and moreso than under Biden's autopen) and up. That affects working folks a lot. Gas keeps fluctuating, drastically.
@NFLPlayerProps
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The real rate of inflation is the S&P 500. That's your hurdle rate if you're trying to get ahead.
flown-the-coop
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tysker said:

flown-the-coop said:

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

flown-the-coop said:

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:



Assume this same logic applies under Biden? So raising rates under Biden was all about cooling the RED HOT Bidenomics?

Darth should troll elsewhere.


You should really get out of the red-team/blue-team weeds and look at the bigger economic picture.......

Here's a hint for you.....Party affiliation doesn't matter. Whoever is sitting in the WH is not going to stop printing until the wheels come off. $38Trillion now, $50 trillion or more at the end of 47s term. whoever is 48, is going to kick that up to $100 trillion.


We are in the parabolic phase of debt accumulation......


Assets > Liabilities. I can sleep just fine here in these United States.

How long can your assets>liabilities framework withstand the increasing rate of expenses with declining rates of revenue?

Probably another 250 years.
YouBet
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flown-the-coop said:

tysker said:

flown-the-coop said:

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

flown-the-coop said:

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:



Assume this same logic applies under Biden? So raising rates under Biden was all about cooling the RED HOT Bidenomics?

Darth should troll elsewhere.


You should really get out of the red-team/blue-team weeds and look at the bigger economic picture.......

Here's a hint for you.....Party affiliation doesn't matter. Whoever is sitting in the WH is not going to stop printing until the wheels come off. $38Trillion now, $50 trillion or more at the end of 47s term. whoever is 48, is going to kick that up to $100 trillion.


We are in the parabolic phase of debt accumulation......


Assets > Liabilities. I can sleep just fine here in these United States.

How long can your assets>liabilities framework withstand the increasing rate of expenses with declining rates of revenue?

Probably another 250 years.

That's...aggressive.

Debt interest payments are now #2 spending line item, annually. And will only get worse. Probably a few years before it can catch up to #1, but that means every dollar that goes towards debt interest is one less dollar to anything else.

So, what happens in that scenario? We print more money to keep up and make that debt interest even worse.
Queso1
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richardag said:

flown-the-coop said:

Queso1 said:

flown-the-coop said:

Queso1 said:

A rate cut is a poison cookie to the middle class, but the benefit goes to DC and corporations. They will continue to destroy us until we are all destitute.

So higher fed rates benefit the middle class. Got it.




During an inflationary period, yes.

Real wages are outpacing the modest and dropping "inflation". To act like further rate cuts would hurt the middle class is making a lot of assumptions that simply are not reasonable.

It amazes me people ignore this fact that currently wages outpace inflation. To accomplish this in the short span this Administration has been in office is quite remarkable.


Increased wages will only add to inflation. You can't buy your way out of inflation.
flown-the-coop
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YouBet said:

flown-the-coop said:

tysker said:

How long can your assets>liabilities framework withstand the increasing rate of expenses with declining rates of revenue?

Probably another 250 years.

That's...aggressive.

Debt interest payments are now #2 spending line item, annually. And will only get worse. Probably a few years before it can catch up to #1, but that means every dollar that goes towards debt interest is one less dollar to anything else.

So, what happens in that scenario? We print more money to keep up and make that debt interest even worse.

We should tax more and spend less.

Recall what I said about solving the problem. No one wants to.

Its not that the answers are unavailable. They are just unattainable. So why worry.
Queso1
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That's impossible. The entitlements are set and they aren't going away. Foreign nations and entire generations of Americans (and noncitizens) are entirely reliant on the taxpayer tit. And you're not taxing your way out of this. Most of us are already maxed out on the tax burden we can bear.
flown-the-coop
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Queso1 said:

That's impossible. The entitlements are set and they aren't going away. Foreign nations and entire generations of Americans (and noncitizens) are entirely reliant on the taxpayer tit. And you're not taxing your way out of this. Most of us are already maxed out on the tax burden we can bear.

Thank you. That is exactly what I said.
tysker
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Queso1 said:

Most of us are already maxed out on the tax burden we can bear.

There is plenty of room for more tax revenue; nearly half of households (not individuals!) owe no federal income taxes.

Instead politicians are pushing no taxes on tips or on SS payments. The feds aren't even willing to tax it's own welfare payments!
tysker
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flown-the-coop said:

tysker said:

flown-the-coop said:

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

flown-the-coop said:

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:



Assume this same logic applies under Biden? So raising rates under Biden was all about cooling the RED HOT Bidenomics?

Darth should troll elsewhere.


You should really get out of the red-team/blue-team weeds and look at the bigger economic picture.......

Here's a hint for you.....Party affiliation doesn't matter. Whoever is sitting in the WH is not going to stop printing until the wheels come off. $38Trillion now, $50 trillion or more at the end of 47s term. whoever is 48, is going to kick that up to $100 trillion.


We are in the parabolic phase of debt accumulation......


Assets > Liabilities. I can sleep just fine here in these United States.

How long can your assets>liabilities framework withstand the increasing rate of expenses with declining rates of revenue?

Probably another 250 years.

We'll see. It's an escalator up and an elevator down.

We already see side effects like economic disruptions and longer lines at food banks during a government shutdown lasting a couple of months. If there's a sudden 20% drop in spending, it will be rush to see which constituents actually have political power.
Queso1
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flown-the-coop said:

Queso1 said:

That's impossible. The entitlements are set and they aren't going away. Foreign nations and entire generations of Americans (and noncitizens) are entirely reliant on the taxpayer tit. And you're not taxing your way out of this. Most of us are already maxed out on the tax burden we can bear.

Thank you. That is exactly what I said.


lol! You and I finally agree on something (even though I bet we agree on a lot more than we think)
flown-the-coop
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You can worry or make the best of it. Cause you and I are not changing it.

I fully support what many want, reducing spending, reducing debt, eliminate most all entitlements, certainly eliminate government funding of firewood (and sperm) banks, etc.

But its silly to cheer on folks like Massie and Rand Paul who ostracize their political counterparts to the point that even if between them they could squeeze out a good idea, people long quit listening to them.

its even more silly to chicken little about a debt collapse that's almost certainly never going to come to fruition (things would get hot well before that happened).
flown-the-coop
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richardag
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Heineken-Ashi said:

richardag said:

flown-the-coop said:

Queso1 said:

flown-the-coop said:

Queso1 said:

A rate cut is a poison cookie to the middle class, but the benefit goes to DC and corporations. They will continue to destroy us until we are all destitute.

So higher fed rates benefit the middle class. Got it.




During an inflationary period, yes.

Real wages are outpacing the modest and dropping "inflation". To act like further rate cuts would hurt the middle class is making a lot of assumptions that simply are not reasonable.

It amazes me people ignore this fact that currently wages outpace inflation. To accomplish this in the short span this Administration has been in office is quite remarkable.

Would need at least 10 years of this pace just to catch up with total inflation since 2020.

And if you broke down the wages between high earners, mid earners, and low earners, you would see that only the high earners are outpacing.

Inflation Outpacing Wage Growth For Over 40% Of Americans, Report Says
Depends on the jobs and doesn't take into account previous gains before this data
quotes from the article
  • Purchasing power for 57% of U.S. workers increased last year, according to Indeed, leaving 43% lagging behind the rise in cost of living
  • Jobs in electrical engineering topped Indeed's list of fastest-growing wages with a "much higher-than-average annual advertised pay growth of 6.3%" Wage growth of electrical engineering jobs was followed by legal (5.1%), marketing (5.1%), project management (4.6%), mathematics (4.5%) and IT operations (4.4%)
  • Physicians and surgeons led the way in slowest growing wage growth with a 0.8% increase since last year, which was followed by driving jobs (1%). Other slow-growing categories include arts and entertainment (1.2%), software development (1.4%), beauty and wellness (1.6%) and logistic support (1.7%).
Concerning data before the current information
  • Low-paying jobs experienced their largest wage gains as the economy charged back from the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic's early days, with annual growth spiking as high as 7.5% in October 2022
It is more difficult to get an overall picture than most people are aware. That said our country headed in the right direction and cutting federal spending would accelerate the recovery from the absolute bull**** President Obama and President Biden perpetrated on our country.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
YouBet
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flown-the-coop said:

YouBet said:

flown-the-coop said:

tysker said:

How long can your assets>liabilities framework withstand the increasing rate of expenses with declining rates of revenue?

Probably another 250 years.

That's...aggressive.

Debt interest payments are now #2 spending line item, annually. And will only get worse. Probably a few years before it can catch up to #1, but that means every dollar that goes towards debt interest is one less dollar to anything else.

So, what happens in that scenario? We print more money to keep up and make that debt interest even worse.

We should tax more and spend less.

Recall what I said about solving the problem. No one wants to.

Its not that the answers are unavailable. They are just unattainable. So why worry.


Agreed on that with clarification that taxing more means the bottom half needs to have skin in the game or they don't get to vote.

I disagree on us lasting another 250 years. No way in hell.
BigRobSA
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richardag said:

    It is more difficult to get an overall picture than most people are aware. That said our country headed in the right direction and cutting federal spending would accelerate the recovery from the absolute bull**** President Obama and President Biden perpetrated on our country.


And Trump. He started this most recent inflationary spiral that Biden's autopen worsened to eleventy. He's also doing little to stem the tide, currently.

"Better than Biden/Harris!"? Absolutely. But, not a fiscal conservative.....and it shows. :-(
richardag
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BigRobSA said:

richardag said:

    It is more difficult to get an overall picture than most people are aware. That said our country headed in the right direction and cutting federal spending would accelerate the recovery from the absolute bull**** President Obama and President Biden perpetrated on our country.


And Trump. He started this most recent inflationary spiral that Biden's autopen worsened to eleventy. He's also doing little to stem the tide, currently.

"Better than Biden/Harris!"? Absolutely. But, not a fiscal conservative.....and it shows. :-(

President Trump's two biggest flaws were the handing out checks to everyone in response to the COVID lockdowns and following the advise of Dr, Fauci( who needed to be tried in international courts for crimes against humanity). The first was a ill fated attempt to save small businesses the second was placing trust in that contemptible weasel Fauci.
Among the latter, under pretence of governing they have divided their nations into two classes, wolves and sheep.”
Thomas Jefferson, Letter to Edward Carrington, January 16, 1787
YouBet
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richardag said:

BigRobSA said:

richardag said:

    It is more difficult to get an overall picture than most people are aware. That said our country headed in the right direction and cutting federal spending would accelerate the recovery from the absolute bull**** President Obama and President Biden perpetrated on our country.


And Trump. He started this most recent inflationary spiral that Biden's autopen worsened to eleventy. He's also doing little to stem the tide, currently.

"Better than Biden/Harris!"? Absolutely. But, not a fiscal conservative.....and it shows. :-(

President Trump's two biggest flaws were the handing out checks to everyone in response to the COVID lockdowns and following the advise of Dr, Fauci( who needed to be tried in international courts for crimes against humanity). The first was a ill fated attempt to save small businesses the second was placing trust in that contemptible weasel Fauci.


Only problem with this is that he would somehow be exonerated and made a hero in any international court. He needs to be tried in US courts and face the death penalty.
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