deddog said:

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BusterAg said:

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deddog said:

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Nothing else he does is going to matter if the economy is K shaped and no better than Bidens

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Do you have any actual, thoughtful analysis on the K shape of the economy?

I have heard this three times today, which means it is an ActBlue talking point, and have seen zero analysis to back it up.

Was this concept dreamed up by Ray Perryman by any chance? Paul Krugman?

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My first reference to this was from a very conservative poster on the business board. And it tracks with what i've seen in the market in the last 4-5 years.

Tech is the best example. If you are with a company riding the AI wave, its great (NVDA, OpenAI, AI jobs within big Tech). If you aren't then things are absymal. Unemployment is low. Great. But job mobility is non-existent, and that's problematic. Economy is doing well for some, absolute dog**** for others.
People voted for Trump because they were tired of Biden's ***** Economy needs to get better for everyone. And he's running out of time to deliver.

Reducing illegal immigration is one of the things he's done right, and needs to double down on. If OP article is true, that's a big misstep.

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Right or wrong it's also being used to separate people coming into this latest economic era into the upper K groups who already had investments and are doing really well in the stock market while younger and/or poorer folks are not (lower K) because the economy has pretty much separated from the stock market at this point. IOW, the base economy is not doing enough to help people get to the upper K.

I think this is partially true. However, what doesn't get pointed out in most of the articles I read on it is that this is partly just a function of compounding interest. If I've been in the market longer than you by several years, then I'm naturally going to pull away from you with greater acceleration. We also have more millionaires than we've ever had due to the liberalization of investment laws and rules. Anyone can invest on their own now. There are zero barriers to entry with it.

It's a complex topic.

YouBet said:

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deddog said:

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BusterAg said:

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deddog said:

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Nothing else he does is going to matter if the economy is K shaped and no better than Bidens

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Do you have any actual, thoughtful analysis on the K shape of the economy?

I have heard this three times today, which means it is an ActBlue talking point, and have seen zero analysis to back it up.

Was this concept dreamed up by Ray Perryman by any chance? Paul Krugman?

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My first reference to this was from a very conservative poster on the business board. And it tracks with what i've seen in the market in the last 4-5 years.

Tech is the best example. If you are with a company riding the AI wave, its great (NVDA, OpenAI, AI jobs within big Tech). If you aren't then things are absymal. Unemployment is low. Great. But job mobility is non-existent, and that's problematic. Economy is doing well for some, absolute dog**** for others.
People voted for Trump because they were tired of Biden's ***** Economy needs to get better for everyone. And he's running out of time to deliver.

Reducing illegal immigration is one of the things he's done right, and needs to double down on. If OP article is true, that's a big misstep.

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Right or wrong it's also being used to separate people coming into this latest economic era into the upper K groups who already had investments and are doing really well in the stock market while younger and/or poorer folks are not (lower K) because the economy has pretty much separated from the stock market at this point. IOW, the base economy is not doing enough to help people get to the upper K.

I think this is partially true. However, what doesn't get pointed out in most of the articles I read on it is that this is partly just a function of compounding interest. If I've been in the market longer than you by several years, then I'm naturally going to pull away from you with greater acceleration. We also have more millionaires than we've ever had due to the liberalization of investment laws and rules. Anyone can invest on their own now. There are zero barriers to entry with it.

It's a complex topic.

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Good summary.

It is the Pareto distribution/ 8/20 rule in effect.

The post WWII global hegemony US industrial economy is done and never to return. We are now largely a service economy of high and low earners.

The top 20% will continue to separate from the bottom as they control more and more of the assets which protect them from the coming waves of inflation largely fueled by entitlement deficit spending which will decimate the bottom 80%.

The bottom will ask for more handouts which will drive up income taxes which the wealthy are largely immune from because that is not how they make their money. This will have the added benefit (in the view of the wealthy) of making upward mobility much more difficult due to high income taxation. This will calcify the existing social class order. With much of the lower class happy to receive their handout which will be enough to live like a college sophomore playing video games and drinking beer with very little work required to maintain this lifestyle. They will also have very basic healthcare provided for free by the government.

Those groups will marry within their class to maintain their relative position and this will further exacerbate the situation.

People better make sure you are on the right side of the K before it is too late.

Fake news article....

LarryLayman said:

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Over_ed said:

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According to Fox, Trump is so concerned with polling data that he is ending big sweeps for illegals. So I guess American streets, jobs, schools, and welfare benefits still don't belong to us.

Bad Trump, one of the high points for public approval was his immigration enforcement.

We need to deport them all.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dhs-focus-arresting-illegal-immigrants-serious-offenses-amid-negative-polling-ice-raids-report

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I am surprised he rounded up as many as he did and disappointed at how fast the mandate by the electorate evaporated. Polling clearly indicated the people wanted to fix the problem.

This weak stomach to do the hard work indicates things will have to reach rock bottom in our country before a problem will be addressed.

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What polls? What are the metrics and why are we trusting polls now?

TAMU1990 said:

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LarryLayman said:

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Over_ed said:

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According to Fox, Trump is so concerned with polling data that he is ending big sweeps for illegals. So I guess American streets, jobs, schools, and welfare benefits still don't belong to us.

Bad Trump, one of the high points for public approval was his immigration enforcement.

We need to deport them all.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dhs-focus-arresting-illegal-immigrants-serious-offenses-amid-negative-polling-ice-raids-report

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I am surprised he rounded up as many as he did and disappointed at how fast the mandate by the electorate evaporated. Polling clearly indicated the people wanted to fix the problem.

This weak stomach to do the hard work indicates things will have to reach rock bottom in our country before a problem will be addressed.

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What polls? What are the metrics and why are we trusting polls now?

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We can probably assume this is internal polling by the WH and/or the Republicans, if they are actually changing course.

JW said:

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Work on getting rid of the free stuff. They will leave on their own.

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Was about to post this.

YouBet said:

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TAMU1990 said:

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LarryLayman said:

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Over_ed said:

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According to Fox, Trump is so concerned with polling data that he is ending big sweeps for illegals. So I guess American streets, jobs, schools, and welfare benefits still don't belong to us.

Bad Trump, one of the high points for public approval was his immigration enforcement.

We need to deport them all.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dhs-focus-arresting-illegal-immigrants-serious-offenses-amid-negative-polling-ice-raids-report

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I am surprised he rounded up as many as he did and disappointed at how fast the mandate by the electorate evaporated. Polling clearly indicated the people wanted to fix the problem.

This weak stomach to do the hard work indicates things will have to reach rock bottom in our country before a problem will be addressed.

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What polls? What are the metrics and why are we trusting polls now?

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We can probably assume this is internal polling by the WH and/or the Republicans, if they are actually changing course.

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This is what the most sense. I mean, we've all seen Trump call every poll out there "fake news" even if multiple polls have the same numbers. So his people must have found the same numbers by their own means.

There's no other way Trump would change course any other way.

Bingo.

Also, I will again go back to common sense, logical reasoning brings you to this same conclusion.

I mentioned in another thread, a longtime contractor (legal) was discussing a friend of his that was not legal had been picked up in a sweep and deported. Guy was established and hardworking.

Now from my standpoint, I am perfectly fine with this deportation, it is what I voted for. But the sub who also supported Trump does not think his friend being deported is in line with getting the worst of the worst out.

It's just an anecdote. But it's an anecdote that reasonable people can see playing out over and over again. The proper answer is for Dems to cut the sanctuary **** out so targeted raids can be the SOP. But they won't and that leaves Trump and DHS / ICE in a tough spot.

Does no good to continue on a course that will undermine the 2026 elections when refinement can be made that improves perception (and saves votes).

YouBet said:

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Dems win again. Must be awesome owing the media like they do.

So that poll says over half of Americans are against deporting illegals.

Good by America. It was a good run.

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Yep.

I'd bet a large amount of the populace thinks that Kilmar is just some poor "Maryland man"...

YouBet said:

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Owlagdad said:

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Trump has had me scratching my head last couple of weeks.

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For whatever reason, he's been folding ever since the Democrats won heavily favored races in deep blue states. Doesn't make any sense for him to panic over a known, expected outcome but those election results spooked him.

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It stated before that. When Kirk got murdered.

YouBet said:

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pfo said:

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Who says the majority of Americans don't want the illegals out? It looks to me like Trump is removing pedophiles, rapists and murderers and lots of parasites.

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The 'selective polling' is saying most Americans don't like him kicking them out en masse. Too mean I guess.

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FIFY

Over_ed said:

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According to Fox, Trump is so concerned with polling data that he is ending big sweeps for illegals. So I guess American streets, jobs, schools, and welfare benefits still don't belong to us.

Bad Trump, one of the high points for public approval was his immigration enforcement.

We need to deport them all.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dhs-focus-arresting-illegal-immigrants-serious-offenses-amid-negative-polling-ice-raids-report

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The opposite of what this article asserts is what is happening...claims of a polling-driven retreat to targeting only serious offenders is contrary to actual 2025 enforcement ... it has actually escalated into unprecedented broad sweeps and mass deportations. This is supported by overwhelming public support in polls showing 78% of Americans backing such actions, alongside massive funding increases for ICE; including $28.7 billion for detention and deportationand the deployment of thousands of new agents to expand operations nationwide

BusterAg said:

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Quote:

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polling has shown most Americans do not want the deportations to include Abuelas and you oopsie illegal nanny / housekeeper / handy manny.

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Link?

I'm not arguing, just asking if you have seen any credible analysis.

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My anecdotal analysis from knowing people in real life is that he's absolutely correct.

It only takes a couple reports of nice old hard workers getting tackled by masked agents to really change the narrative.

And if it affects laborers they use, or if their favorite little dive restaurant is closed due to employees being afraid of coming to work, that's really bad.

Gang violence and drug overdoses fueled the popular shift towards immigration enforcement, but the Democrats and media complex have successfully shifted the narrative. And yes, I realize the Dems are in the pockets of the cartels and oppose enforcement for the worst of the worst too.

flown-the-coop said:

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Bingo.

Also, I will again go back to common sense, logical reasoning brings you to this same conclusion.

I mentioned in another thread, a longtime contractor (legal) was discussing a friend of his that was not legal had been picked up in a sweep and deported. Guy was established and hardworking.

Now from my standpoint, I am perfectly fine with this deportation, it is what I voted for. But the sub who also supported Trump does not think his friend being deported is in line with getting the worst of the worst out.

It's just an anecdote. But it's an anecdote that reasonable people can see playing out over and over again. The proper answer is for Dems to cut the sanctuary **** out so targeted raids can be the SOP. But they won't and that leaves Trump and DHS / ICE in a tough spot.

Does no good to continue on a course that will undermine the 2026 elections when refinement can be made that improves perception (and saves votes).

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You're so right about your friend and his illegal immigrant friend.

I'm sure I'm not the only one here who's seen conservatives who voted for Trump on social media talking about how they hate how he's handling this. I mean, obviously they exist, because I know for a fact that Trump couldn't care less if his polls were tanking with the left. It's cause they're moving in a direction he doesn't like on the right.

YouBet said:

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Owlagdad said:

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Trump has had me scratching my head last couple of weeks.

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For whatever reason, he's been folding ever since the Democrats won heavily favored races in deep blue states. Doesn't make any sense for him to panic over a known, expected outcome but those election results spooked him.

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It's not that they lost those races
Rs are underperforming everywhere by about 12 points
The TN7 special election is a pretty good barometer both sides dumped a ton of money in and
the R candidate won by 9
Trump won by 22
If the 12 point underperformance holds The Rs will lose most of the congressional races in Iowa next fall Iowa has been cut up to spread Des Moines out over several districts. If there's a + 10 wave the Ds take most of the districts in Iowa

Sq 17 said:

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YouBet said:

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Owlagdad said:

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Trump has had me scratching my head last couple of weeks.

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For whatever reason, he's been folding ever since the Democrats won heavily favored races in deep blue states. Doesn't make any sense for him to panic over a known, expected outcome but those election results spooked him.

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It's not that they lost those races
Rs are underperforming everywhere by about 12 points
The TN7 special election is a pretty good barometer both sides dumped a ton of money in and
the R candidate won by 9
Trump won by 22
If the 12 point underperformance holds The Rs will lose most of the congressional races in Iowa next fall Iowa has been cut up to spread Des Moines out over several districts. If there's a + 10 wave the Ds take most of the districts in Iowa

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Well, that doesn't surprise me. It's clockwork with the American public to do this. Fickle, wishy-washy populace who simply can't stand to stay the course on much of anything except always be moving to the left. "We are sick of the left and their insane polices so we are going to vote for a change. A year later....let's vote back in the group that we voted out in the first place because we are bored!"

Who?mikejones! said:

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Its am impossible problem to solve. Globalist, leftist, dems, et al know that once you let people in, the party attempting to remove illegals will be shouted down and lose the political fight.

Its very easy to paint an ugly picture.

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If you have no true conviction then yes, nothing is possible to solve. Just give up dude.

Its that way wya the world round. Doesn't matter how a populace votes- the immigration crisis doesnt get solved.

Trump has done 1/2 the job. He stopped the inflow for the most part. He has got a good start on step 2- removing the illegals. But now hes allegedly going to stop because it looks bad.

That's what I'm talking about. Theres no single western country on earth that has the gumption to do what's necessary.

Who?mikejones! said:

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Its thay wya the world round. Doesn't matter how a populace votes- the immigration crisis doesnt get solved.

Trump has done 1/2 the job. He stopped the inflow for the most part. He has got a good start on step 2- removing the illegals. But now hes allegedly going to stop because it looks bad.

That's what I'm talking about. Theres no single western country on earth that has the gumption to do what's necessary.

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Japan seems to be the only one.

there is no fixing what ails our country in the ballot box.

This administration is over. Fun for a few months. Oh well, the democrats are going to pull in 2026 and likely in 2028, and they have the balls to force their goals through, and we'll all be on here complaining

Japan is unique and their problems are still small enough to handle

Again, this isn’t true. DHS law enforcement @ICEgov @CBP continue to ramp up enforcement efforts.

If there were operational changes you would hear it directly from the horse’s mouth @DHSgov. https://t.co/EYk26AQtBV

— Tricia McLaughlin (@TriciaOhio) December 15, 2025

Who?mikejones! said:

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Its that way wya the world round. Doesn't matter how a populace votes- the immigration crisis doesnt get solved.

Trump has done 1/2 the job. He stopped the inflow for the most part. He has got a good start on step 2- removing the illegals. But now hes allegedly going to stop because it looks bad.

That's what I'm talking about. Theres no single western country on earth that has the gumption to do what's necessary.

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Some of you guys just take every newspaper article at face value. Geesh...this whole article is a lie. Read the post from the DHS.

BQ2017 said:

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This administration is over. Fun for a few months. Oh well, the democrats are going to pull in 2026 and likely in 2028, and they have the balls to force their goals through, and we'll all be on here complaining

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I've assumed this since 2016 so we've been preparing as best we can. Trump winning both times was a surprise to me (less so the second time), but both terms are merely temporary halts in the destruction of this country. The Democrats will reverse everything he's done and get us back on the path of open borders, embezzlement, funding shadow groups to spread communism and propaganda...the works.

Since the Democrats openly rejoice at white people becoming the minority and letting the browns/blacks act out their revenge porn on us then everyone else should prepare accordingly.

Trump trying to change the narrative back and Dems will not let him. It's their only winning issue. Again, need to just focus on getting rid of illegal entitlements and voting and the rest will take care of itself. A majority support this.

LarryLayman said:

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Over_ed said:

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According to Fox, Trump is so concerned with polling data that he is ending big sweeps for illegals. So I guess American streets, jobs, schools, and welfare benefits still don't belong to us.

Bad Trump, one of the high points for public approval was his immigration enforcement.

We need to deport them all.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dhs-focus-arresting-illegal-immigrants-serious-offenses-amid-negative-polling-ice-raids-report

---

I am surprised he rounded up as many as he did and disappointed at how fast the mandate by the electorate evaporated. Polling clearly indicated the people wanted to fix the problem.

This weak stomach to do the hard work indicates things will have to reach rock bottom in our country before a problem will be addressed.

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Americans were told they didn't like the deportations, so they didn't like the deportations. Americans are sheep.

LarryLayman said:

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Over_ed said:

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According to Fox, Trump is so concerned with polling data that he is ending big sweeps for illegals. So I guess American streets, jobs, schools, and welfare benefits still don't belong to us.

Bad Trump, one of the high points for public approval was his immigration enforcement.

We need to deport them all.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/dhs-focus-arresting-illegal-immigrants-serious-offenses-amid-negative-polling-ice-raids-report

---

I am surprised he rounded up as many as he did and disappointed at how fast the mandate by the electorate evaporated. Polling clearly indicated the people wanted to fix the problem.

This weak stomach to do the hard work indicates things will have to reach rock bottom in our country before a problem will be addressed.

---

And at that point it will be too late

Trump has gone undercover. He doesn't blast out everything he does anymore. Which is a good thing.

Nothing has stopped.

General Problem with our system.

Presidential term breakdown by year.

Year 1: The Honeymoon and the Stonewall

• Aggressively implement anything that could be controversial.
• Try to get cabinet and appointees passed through congress

Year 2: Campaign for Congress

• Pull back on controversial items
• Fight to win as many seats as possible

Year 3 (with year 2 success) Git R Done:

• Get as much legislation passed as possible
• Kick back up controversial items

Year 3 (with year 2 failure) Finger pointing hell:

• Nothing gets done

Year 4: Who's next?

• Roll back controversial items again
• Campaign for yourself or party for president
• Campaign for Congress

Rinse/Repeat. Basically you have 1 year to really work on implementing your vision and you only get that year if you have control over congress.