ETFan said:

---

"He did not create this mess but he now owns it."

How many years does he get to be president before anything happening is his fault?

But, I'm not sure why that matters? He's campaigning again and telling people everything is wonderful. What more do the people want??

---

I know what most people that actually have a brain don't want and that is more liberal nutjobs involved in making any meaningful decisions regarding the direction of this country.

ETFan said:

---

"He did not create this mess but he now owns it."

How many years does he get to be president before anything happening is his fault?

But, I'm not sure why that matters? He's campaigning again and telling people everything is wonderful. What more do the people want??

---

There is no mess. We have full employment, we are nuking gov jobs, and we are creating enough jobs to keep pace with population increase.

Logos Stick said:

---

Old McDonald said:

---

Quote:

---

Almost no jobs have been added since April.

---

turns out trump's "day of liberation" was actually about liberating the country from the burden of employment!

---

hey there my liberal friend... are you aware that the big drop in October was mostly government jobs?! 157,000 to be exact!

We don't need those jobs.

This is a GOOD thing.

Since April we've lost about 208,000 government jobs! HOORAY!

---

we were told tariffs would bring back jobs. that's not happening.

I drove from Ft Worth to New Braunfels Sunday and I saw lots of employment opportunities as road construction needs more folks to start working 24/7 to get the projects completed

infinity ag said:

---

Quote:

---

.

---

The US economy is in a hiring recession.

Almost no jobs have been added since April.
Wage gains are slowing.
710,000 more people are unemployed now versus November 2024.

November +64,000 jobs
October -105,000 (impacted by shutdown)
September +108,000
August -26,000
July… pic.twitter.com/ULtXWyjTzk

— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) December 16, 2025

---

Gee, what happened in April?

The huge business uncertainty created by Trump's decision to apply tariffs on a massive scale throttled back investments more than it spurred them, and it also slowed hiring more than it helped it.

Sure, if you're in the AI industry -- everything is roses -- but that's an exception.

The benefits of his policies -- if they actually occur as predicted -- are still two to three years down the road from becoming noticeable in the macro economy.

Bone-headed move to force all this pain onto people now, based on an arguable belief that it provides benefits later that cause people to eventually consider it a good move.

ABATTBQ87 said:

---

I drove from Ft Worth to New Braunfels Sunday and I saw lots of employment opportunities as road construction needs more folks to start working 24/7 to get the projects completed

---

I am okay with H1B visas used to build roads. Open it up, we are missing that 'skill' here.

How many H1Bs from India do you see helping us with that? They are all working for Amazon and Meta pulling in 700k a year (and sending 500k to india).

Old McDonald said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

Old McDonald said:

---

Quote:

---

Almost no jobs have been added since April.

---

turns out trump's "day of liberation" was actually about liberating the country from the burden of employment!

---

hey there my liberal friend... are you aware that the big drop in October was mostly government jobs?! 157,000 to be exact!

We don't need those jobs.

This is a GOOD thing.

Since April we've lost about 208,000 government jobs! HOORAY!

---

we were told tariffs would bring back jobs. that's not happening.

---

What do you think is a reasonable timeline for manufacturing jobs, if they do come to the US, to start popping up in the US?

If you can't use job growth numbers as progress, what other metrics could one use? Maybe domestic investment in industry? That's my idea. Do you have any alternatives?

How fast is it reasonable to expect tariffs to cause the massive inflation is coming? Will that be overnight, or will it take a while. If it will take a while, what is a reasonable amount of time?

deddog said:

---

Lower government headcount is awesome.
The unemployment rate, low, great.

Politically, the bigger issue for Trump is the lack of job mobility.

We get about 500-1000 applicants for every single technical job we have open. Employers are being very picky and choosy, because it's clearly an employers market.

Lets face it. Most jobs suck (I mean it is work). Right now, its very difficult to find new jobs or switch jobs. What keeps you going is the promise of a new position, new challenges. Without this mobility there are a lot more people fully employed, and but very unhappy in their current jobs, unable to move (I see this anecdotally, at a level rivaling 2008).

That does not bode well for Trump. Fair or unfair, they will take it out on Trump.

---

100%

Good post.

Trump shouldn't get cocky. He better please his base. If he licks H1B boots or something like that, I might just vote Dem in anger.

MemphisAg1 said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

Quote:

---

.

---

The US economy is in a hiring recession.

Almost no jobs have been added since April.
Wage gains are slowing.
710,000 more people are unemployed now versus November 2024.

November +64,000 jobs
October -105,000 (impacted by shutdown)
September +108,000
August -26,000
July… pic.twitter.com/ULtXWyjTzk

— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) December 16, 2025

---

Gee, what happened in April?

The huge business uncertainty created by Trump's decision to apply tariffs on a massive scale throttled back investments more than it spurred them, and it also slowed hiring more than it helped it.

Sure, if you're in the AI industry -- everything is roses -- but that's an exception.

The benefits of his policies -- if they actually occur as predicted -- are still two to three years down the road from becoming noticeable in the macro economy.

Bone-headed move to force all this pain onto people now, based on an arguable belief that it provides benefits later that cause people to eventually consider it a good move.

---

What is your take on the massive government layoffs? How did those impact unemployment? Zero%? Was it all, 100% related to tariffs?

deddog said:

---

Lower government headcount is awesome.
The unemployment rate, low, great.

Politically, the bigger issue for Trump is the lack of job mobility.

We get about 500-1000 applicants for every single technical job we have open. Employers are being very picky and choosy, because it's clearly an employers market.

Lets face it. Most jobs suck (I mean it is work). Right now, its very difficult to find new jobs or switch jobs. What keeps you going is the promise of a new position, new challenges. Without this mobility there are a lot more people fully employed, and but very unhappy in their current jobs, unable to move (I see this anecdotally, at a level rivaling 2008).

That does not bode well for Trump. Fair or unfair, they will take it out on Trump.

---

In what world is that kind of environment not at least mostly reflected in unemployment numbers?

Do all of those 1,000 applicants to your positions already have jobs?

A lot of the OBBB stuff doesn't even come into play until 2026. I'm sure that's lost on many. Granted, Trump doesn't do enough to remind folks of this although he did in an interview last Friday.

BusterAg said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

Saw this very interesting post on Linkedin.

Looks like Boomers recommending young grads to become plumbers, HVAC and electricians while Indian kids become AI researchers due to a fixed job market is more widespread that just TexAgs.

Maybe this is a nefarious and deep-rooted Boomer Network conspiracy. The more H1B slaves, the higher the 401k returns.

---

This guy is a bad economist.

He forgot supply and demand.

The supply of trademan sucks right now, and is shrinking due to cultural headwinds. The demand is still strong. The demand for tradesmen that aren't addicted to opioids is huge.

The number of people that will be needed for entry level knowledge jobs is shrinking, fast. An analyst armed with AI can do what 8 first year analysts could do just 5 years ago. The supply of people looking for knowledge jobs isn't shrinking.

There is a reason why an experienced bookkeeper makes less than a plumber's assistant right now.

---

No, no, no! It's those darn boomers again!

Street Fighter said:

---

So long as Israel is happy, Trump doesn't care. He'll tell you it's all great and you should be happy.

---

LOL

a thread on unemployment in the United States and some Jew hater likely from Qatar jumps in to say it is all Israel's fault.

you can't make this up!

All these corporations act like they are hurting for hires, but nobody is getting hired anywhere.

BusterAg said:

---

Old McDonald said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

Old McDonald said:

---

Quote:

---

Almost no jobs have been added since April.

---

turns out trump's "day of liberation" was actually about liberating the country from the burden of employment!

---

hey there my liberal friend... are you aware that the big drop in October was mostly government jobs?! 157,000 to be exact!

We don't need those jobs.

This is a GOOD thing.

Since April we've lost about 208,000 government jobs! HOORAY!

---

we were told tariffs would bring back jobs. that's not happening.

---

What do you think is a reasonable timeline for manufacturing jobs, if they do come to the US, to start popping up in the US?

If you can't use job growth numbers as progress, what other metrics could one use? Maybe domestic investment in industry? That's my idea. Do you have any alternatives?

How fast is it reasonable to expect tariffs to cause the massive inflation is coming? Will that be overnight, or will it take a while. If it will take a while, what is a reasonable amount of time?

---

Our society is so screwed up now, we have been on this long term ride getting rid of manufacturing because we over-regulate it, now it's going to take a good amount of ramp up time to gain that traction back. Just can't slap a modular building together and go to town. A lot of these goals are not the "shovel ready" jobs that were promised by others. That helps, but the long term solution is just that, long term because the pooch has been screwed so long.

Won't have the media helping the issue either.

BusterAg said:

---

deddog said:

---

Lower government headcount is awesome.
The unemployment rate, low, great.

Politically, the bigger issue for Trump is the lack of job mobility.

We get about 500-1000 applicants for every single technical job we have open. Employers are being very picky and choosy, because it's clearly an employers market.

Lets face it. Most jobs suck (I mean it is work). Right now, its very difficult to find new jobs or switch jobs. What keeps you going is the promise of a new position, new challenges. Without this mobility there are a lot more people fully employed, and but very unhappy in their current jobs, unable to move (I see this anecdotally, at a level rivaling 2008).

That does not bode well for Trump. Fair or unfair, they will take it out on Trump.

---

In what world is that kind of environment not at least mostly reflected in unemployment numbers?

Do all of those 1,000 applicants to your positions already have jobs?

---

I donno man.
Lots of H1s (don't believe their resume so hard to tell if they are really working someplace or not), on other resumes some with existing jobs, some without a job.

But I do know a lot of people in Tech, unhappy with their current jobs, and just finding it difficult to move. That's been the case through the Biden admin as well, but "AI" is making it worse.

B-1 83 said:

---

BusterAg said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

Saw this very interesting post on Linkedin.

Looks like Boomers recommending young grads to become plumbers, HVAC and electricians while Indian kids become AI researchers due to a fixed job market is more widespread that just TexAgs.

Maybe this is a nefarious and deep-rooted Boomer Network conspiracy. The more H1B slaves, the higher the 401k returns.

---

This guy is a bad economist.

He forgot supply and demand.

The supply of trademan sucks right now, and is shrinking due to cultural headwinds. The demand is still strong. The demand for tradesmen that aren't addicted to opioids is huge.

The number of people that will be needed for entry level knowledge jobs is shrinking, fast. An analyst armed with AI can do what 8 first year analysts could do just 5 years ago. The supply of people looking for knowledge jobs isn't shrinking.

There is a reason why an experienced bookkeeper makes less than a plumber's assistant right now.

---

No, no, no! It's those darn boomers again!

---

I only blame boomers on the national debt.

I will stick to my guns there.

We aren't talking about the national debt.

Try to stay on topic.

deddog said:

---

BusterAg said:

---

deddog said:

---

Lower government headcount is awesome.
The unemployment rate, low, great.

Politically, the bigger issue for Trump is the lack of job mobility.

We get about 500-1000 applicants for every single technical job we have open. Employers are being very picky and choosy, because it's clearly an employers market.

Lets face it. Most jobs suck (I mean it is work). Right now, its very difficult to find new jobs or switch jobs. What keeps you going is the promise of a new position, new challenges. Without this mobility there are a lot more people fully employed, and but very unhappy in their current jobs, unable to move (I see this anecdotally, at a level rivaling 2008).

That does not bode well for Trump. Fair or unfair, they will take it out on Trump.

---

In what world is that kind of environment not at least mostly reflected in unemployment numbers?

Do all of those 1,000 applicants to your positions already have jobs?

---

I donno man.
Lots of H1s (don't believe their resume so hard to tell if they are really working someplace or not), on other resumes some with existing jobs, some without a job.

But I do know a lot of people in Tech, unhappy with their current jobs, and just finding it difficult to move. That's been the case through the Biden admin as well, but "AI" is making it worse.

---

If the labor market is tight, unemployment is low.

If the demand for labor is low, then unemployment is high.

There is no world where the demand for labor is low and unemployment is low.

Bad workers get fired when there is not enough to get done.

Every company has bad workers.

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

---

BusterAg said:

---

Old McDonald said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

Old McDonald said:

---

Quote:

---

Almost no jobs have been added since April.

---

turns out trump's "day of liberation" was actually about liberating the country from the burden of employment!

---

hey there my liberal friend... are you aware that the big drop in October was mostly government jobs?! 157,000 to be exact!

We don't need those jobs.

This is a GOOD thing.

Since April we've lost about 208,000 government jobs! HOORAY!

---

we were told tariffs would bring back jobs. that's not happening.

---

What do you think is a reasonable timeline for manufacturing jobs, if they do come to the US, to start popping up in the US?

If you can't use job growth numbers as progress, what other metrics could one use? Maybe domestic investment in industry? That's my idea. Do you have any alternatives?

How fast is it reasonable to expect tariffs to cause the massive inflation is coming? Will that be overnight, or will it take a while. If it will take a while, what is a reasonable amount of time?

---

Our society is so screwed up now, we have been on this long term ride getting rid of manufacturing because we over-regulate it, now it's going to take a good amount of ramp up time to gain that traction back. Just can't slap a modular building together and go to town. A lot of these goals are not the "shovel ready" jobs that were promised by others. That helps, but the long term solution is just that, long term because the pooch has been screwed so long.

Won't have the media helping the issue either.

---

I do think that there is more interest in US investment in industry. That would pre-date manufacturing jobs. And, new manufacturing jobs will not be turning wrenches, it will be running high-tech CNC machines. There will be fewer of these jobs than wrench turners, but they will be higher paid. Maybe even entry level jobs for engineers.

CNC machine sales in the US would also be an interesting leading stat, now that I think about it, even if anecdotal.

BusterAg said:

---

B-1 83 said:

---

BusterAg said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

Saw this very interesting post on Linkedin.

Looks like Boomers recommending young grads to become plumbers, HVAC and electricians while Indian kids become AI researchers due to a fixed job market is more widespread that just TexAgs.

Maybe this is a nefarious and deep-rooted Boomer Network conspiracy. The more H1B slaves, the higher the 401k returns.

---

This guy is a bad economist.

He forgot supply and demand.

The supply of trademan sucks right now, and is shrinking due to cultural headwinds. The demand is still strong. The demand for tradesmen that aren't addicted to opioids is huge.

The number of people that will be needed for entry level knowledge jobs is shrinking, fast. An analyst armed with AI can do what 8 first year analysts could do just 5 years ago. The supply of people looking for knowledge jobs isn't shrinking.

There is a reason why an experienced bookkeeper makes less than a plumber's assistant right now.

---

No, no, no! It's those darn boomers again!

---

I only blame boomers on the national debt.

I will stick to my guns there.

We aren't talking about the national debt.

Try to stay on topic.

---

I was. You answered on the boomer bashing…..try to catch the context and flow.

Federal government employment continued to decrease in November (-6,000).

This follows a sharp decline of 162,000 in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls.

Federal government employment is down by 271,000 since reaching a peak in January.

(Federal employees on furlough during the government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they received pay, even if later than usual, for the pay period that included the 12th of the month.

Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)

ABATTBQ87 said:

---

I drove from Ft Worth to New Braunfels Sunday and I saw lots of employment opportunities as road construction needs more folks to start working 24/7 to get the projects completed

---

There's job openings in pretty much every sector of the economy. The problem is too many younger Americans, and I'm not talking about the ones who love welfare, just don't want to work.

That's rather stay home because they're in no rush to get out in the real world. I blame their parents for this.

BusterAg said:

---

deddog said:

---

BusterAg said:

---

deddog said:

---

Lower government headcount is awesome.
The unemployment rate, low, great.

Politically, the bigger issue for Trump is the lack of job mobility.

We get about 500-1000 applicants for every single technical job we have open. Employers are being very picky and choosy, because it's clearly an employers market.

Lets face it. Most jobs suck (I mean it is work). Right now, its very difficult to find new jobs or switch jobs. What keeps you going is the promise of a new position, new challenges. Without this mobility there are a lot more people fully employed, and but very unhappy in their current jobs, unable to move (I see this anecdotally, at a level rivaling 2008).

That does not bode well for Trump. Fair or unfair, they will take it out on Trump.

---

In what world is that kind of environment not at least mostly reflected in unemployment numbers?

Do all of those 1,000 applicants to your positions already have jobs?

---

I donno man.
Lots of H1s (don't believe their resume so hard to tell if they are really working someplace or not), on other resumes some with existing jobs, some without a job.

But I do know a lot of people in Tech, unhappy with their current jobs, and just finding it difficult to move. That's been the case through the Biden admin as well, but "AI" is making it worse.

---

If the labor market is tight, unemployment is low.

If the demand for labor is low, then unemployment is high.

There is no world where the demand for labor is low and unemployment is low.

Bad workers get fired when there is not enough to get done.

Every company has bad workers.

---

Based on my (admittedly limited) view of the labor market, it could mean that the unemployment numbers are not really low. They are being underreported or flat out wrong.

Old McDonald said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

Old McDonald said:

---

Quote:

---

Almost no jobs have been added since April.

---

turns out trump's "day of liberation" was actually about liberating the country from the burden of employment!

---

hey there my liberal friend... are you aware that the big drop in October was mostly government jobs?! 157,000 to be exact!

We don't need those jobs.

This is a GOOD thing.

Since April we've lost about 208,000 government jobs! HOORAY!

---

we were told tariffs would bring back jobs. that's not happening.

---

You think we have spare mfg capacity just sitting around? LOL. That takes a bit of time my liberal friend. Those jobs did not disappear overnight and they wont return overnight!


In the meantime we have FULL employment - contrary to your claim - and Trump is transitioning from workfare government jobs to private sector jobs:

Private sector jobs increased by almost 125k over the last 2 months while gov't jobs fell more than 150k - the Trump administration is reprivatizing the economy: pic.twitter.com/CNSQvOQBCF

— E.J. Antoni, Ph.D. (@RealEJAntoni) December 16, 2025

flown-the-coop said:

---

Benjamin Todd seems like an abject ****** with poor data and even worse conclusions.

There is some scuttle / talking point that the increase is also due to more people looking for jobs.

Cutting of government jobs, reducing federal programs, cutting subsidies alongside FWA means some people actually have to go to work.

Very well could be hiding / offsetting real job growth.

And as pointed out, 4.6% is about where you want it.

---

Just wondering how many ex-Federal workers are still getting their severance payments and listed on unemployment?
Nevermind LMCane answered in post above

• "Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)

Logos Stick said:

---

MasonStorm said:

---

Got to have some bad news to cut interest rates. What does a .25 cut save the government in debt service? Had three this year i believe.

---

The problem with that is that US treasuries yields are not really moving with the Fed rate. The 10 year yield is UP about 1/10th of a percent since Powell started making rate moves.

---

The long end of the curve is always correct, and why the FED continuing to ease might be disastrous. The long end is planning for continued elevated inflation. And if it starts to move higher, there's nothing the FED can do to save it except direct QE, which is gasoline on the fire.

deddog said:

---

Based on my (admittedly limited) view of the labor market, it could mean that the unemployment numbers are not really low. They are being underreported or flat out wrong.

---

Of course the numbers are wrong. All govt data is GIGO with an emphasis on the GO.

Is the economy in the dumps? Not yet. Is it thriving and "on fire"? Not even a smidgen. Just go to the grocery store to see that or any store, food or otherwise.

4.6% or whatever, I don't believe those numbers. It's all cooked up. I can clearly see signs of a LOT of unemployment everywhere.

infinity ag said:

---

4.6% or whatever, I don't believe those numbers. It's all cooked up. I can clearly see signs of a LOT of unemployment everywhere.

---

We need to fire the H1-Bs behind this, jail all corporate CEOs and jail Trump for being racist!

Right?

Which way are the numbers being cooked?

Logos Stick said:

---

LMCane said:

---

I disagree and I think the previous election proves my point.

Biden had lower unemployment when Kamala Harris ran in November 2024.

but inflation had been MUCH higher.

so would you rather have high inflation for 100% of the people?

or unemployment of 4.7%- for 4.7% of the people?

---

4-5% is considered FULL employment. We're good!

---

This. This has been the standard since before Reagan.

flown-the-coop said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

4.6% or whatever, I don't believe those numbers. It's all cooked up. I can clearly see signs of a LOT of unemployment everywhere.

---

We need to fire the H1-Bs behind this, jail all corporate CEOs and jail Trump for being racist!

Right?

Which way are the numbers being cooked?

---

Thanks for reading all my posts.

It is amazing to be loved so much.

infinity ag said:

---

It's all about jobs. Trump needs to keep in mind that if he wants to be considered successful, he needs to make sure Americans are able to get jobs. Everything else follows.

He did not create this mess but he now owns it.

---

You don't think tariffs haven't had a negative impact on the job market? When company costs are increasing and uncertainty is rising, you think that doesn't affect hiring?

Street Fighter said:

---

So long as Israel is happy, Trump doesn't care. He'll tell you it's all great and you should be happy.

---

Show us on the doll where Israel touched you.

4.6% unemployment is better than Chicago Jesus averaged, and Obama was touted as the greatest jobs president evar!!!!!

Jeeper79 said:

---

infinity ag said:

---

It's all about jobs. Trump needs to keep in mind that if he wants to be considered successful, he needs to make sure Americans are able to get jobs. Everything else follows.

He did not create this mess but he now owns it.

---

You don't think tariffs haven't had a negative impact on the job market? When company costs are increasing and uncertainty is rising, you think that doesn't affect hiring?

---

It could have.
I think the choice is between more jobs and higher prices, or fewer jobs and lower prices. Ultimately with tariffs, prices will go up but there will be more jobs. But there may be some ups and downs before that.