And just like that, Texas Tech has lost their entire football team to the transfer portal. -OS https://t.co/DNq3FeGCsb

— Lyndon Baines Johnson (@lyndonbajohnson) December 16, 2025

At what point does a low price really impact the O&G folks?

And what is the cause of this price dip......With all of the geo-political issues going on, shouldn't it be much higher?

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

---

And just like that, Texas Tech has lost their entire football team to the transfer portal. -OS https://t.co/DNq3FeGCsb

— Lyndon Baines Johnson (@lyndonbajohnson) December 16, 2025

At what point does a low price really impact the O&G folks?

And what is the cause of this price dip......With all of the geo-political issues going on, shouldn't it be much higher?

---

Doubt it does much to Tech. Didn't that guy get his billions by SELLING his company?

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

---

And just like that, Texas Tech has lost their entire football team to the transfer portal. -OS https://t.co/DNq3FeGCsb

— Lyndon Baines Johnson (@lyndonbajohnson) December 16, 2025

At what point does a low price really impact the O&G folks?

And what is the cause of this price dip......With all of the geo-political issues going on, shouldn't it be much higher?

---

Cody Campbell already has his Billions in hand from his previous asset sales, Tech's NIL stream is in tact....

we need another tariff bailout

I can't fully keep track of it, but sanctioned crude on the black/shadow market probably isn't helping. It sells at a steep discount.

Much like the cure for high prices is high prices, the cure for low prices is low prices. We just don't know how low the sanctioned crude can go.

HTownAg98 said:

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Holy y-axis distortion Batman!!

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Agreed.

HTownAg98 said:

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Holy y-axis distortion Batman!!

Seems like now would be a good time to fill up the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.

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At a minimum it was a well timed screen grab during the market reaction to policy announcements. WTI is back up over $56 today.

edit... Chart imbed didn't work so link
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts/#WTI-Crude

$60-$70 is ideal.

That would be $43 per barrel pre Biden...

not good.

This is close to frac revolution prices during Obama.

good point

It depends on if you're a co-producer or a pure play oil producer. In the permian for example, gas output has largely been nuisance and also the throttling mechanism for oil production. If you can't flare or transport gas, you can't produce oil from a comingled stream.

That model produces a scenario where higher oil means lower gas: they'll burn the gas to be able to produce the oil...or they'll pay someone exorbitant fees for pipeline takeoff capacity for the gas which mostly results in a negative price per mmbtu. Conversely, higher gas prices mean lower oil prices (all else equal for co-producer). If gas prices are up, you're more willing to produce gas ... and oil is coming out of the ground with it. Same story for what you have to pay (or get paid less) to get rid of the oil.

Ultimately, WTI price has been the standard when measuring breakeven production price. The co-producers additionally have to consider revenue weighted breakeven of the full hydrocarbon stream. To some degree, the breakeven WTI number is influenced lower as gas prices rise.

Raiderjay said:

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Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

---

And just like that, Texas Tech has lost their entire football team to the transfer portal. -OS https://t.co/DNq3FeGCsb

— Lyndon Baines Johnson (@lyndonbajohnson) December 16, 2025

At what point does a low price really impact the O&G folks?

And what is the cause of this price dip......With all of the geo-political issues going on, shouldn't it be much higher?

---

Cody Campbell already has his Billions in hand from his previous asset sales, Tech's NIL stream is in tact....

---

I doubt he's sitting on it since he's sold several times. More than likely he's rolled a substantial part of his wealth back into plays.

"Who needs oil, I ride the bus!"


;-)

AJ02 said:

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It's already affecting us O&G folks.

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Yep.

Strangely though, we've been at this low-60/high-50 price point for a while, and I haven't seen much in the way of rigs dropping. I wonder if after q4 earnings calls we'll see some of the majors pull back

Knew you were OG, but not O & G.

Spreadsheet updated!!

DrEvazanPhD said:

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AJ02 said:

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It's already affecting us O&G folks.

---

Yep.

Strangely though, we've been at this low-60/high-50 price point for a while, and I haven't seen much in the way of rigs dropping. I wonder if after q4 earnings calls we'll see some of the majors pull back

---

Permian resources noted in their Q3 disclosures an 11% reduction relative to 2024 in drilling cost per lateral foot. Which likely translates to faster drilling (feet/day)

Cevitas Q1 showed drilling times about 10% faster than plan.

Enverus emphasized batch drilling and longer laterals (13k ft)

All of that points to less rigs to accomplish the same thing. Now to what degree the producers are completing the wells at current prices, I dunno. Maybe easier to just drill ducs and wait for prices.

We need to immediately open a Congressional investigation into these cheap oil and gasoline prices!!!!*




*Psssssssst! It always comes back to supply and demand, high or low.

Sims said:

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DrEvazanPhD said:

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AJ02 said:

---

It's already affecting us O&G folks.

---

Yep.

Strangely though, we've been at this low-60/high-50 price point for a while, and I haven't seen much in the way of rigs dropping. I wonder if after q4 earnings calls we'll see some of the majors pull back

---

Permian resources noted in their Q3 disclosures an 11% reduction relative to 2024 in drilling cost per lateral foot. Which likely translates to faster drilling (feet/day)

Cevitas Q1 showed drilling times about 10% faster than plan.

Enverus emphasized batch drilling and longer laterals (13k ft)

All of that points to less rigs to accomplish the same thing. Now to what degree the producers are completing the wells at current prices, I dunno. Maybe easier to just drill ducs and wait for prices.

---

This is one of the things being slung around the water cooler at the moment. But keep in mind, while cost of drilling is down, so is the amount of tier 1 inventory available.

BigRobSA said:

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Knew you were OG, but not O & G.

Spreadsheet updated!!

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B-1 83 said:

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We need to immediately open a Congressional investigation into these cheap oil and gasoline prices!!!!*




*Psssssssst! It always comes back to supply and demand, high or low.

---

The American people won't stand for this reverse gouging!

Sims said:

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DrEvazanPhD said:

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AJ02 said:

---

It's already affecting us O&G folks.

---

Yep.

Strangely though, we've been at this low-60/high-50 price point for a while, and I haven't seen much in the way of rigs dropping. I wonder if after q4 earnings calls we'll see some of the majors pull back

---

Permian resources noted in their Q3 disclosures an 11% reduction relative to 2024 in drilling cost per lateral foot. Which likely translates to faster drilling (feet/day)

Cevitas Q1 showed drilling times about 10% faster than plan.

Enverus emphasized batch drilling and longer laterals (13k ft)

All of that points to less rigs to accomplish the same thing. Now to what degree the producers are completing the wells at current prices, I dunno. Maybe easier to just drill ducs and wait for prices.

---

I've consulted for both PermRes and Citivitas over the last two years, and yes, the longer NYMEX trades under $60, the longer they'll be pausing any drilling programs from 2Q next year on. BakerHughes rig count tracking data points have been flatlined for months on end also.

For the smaller, independent producer/operators, they're getting beat to smithereens right now. I know of at least 75 operators in Texas that will be folding up their businesses in 2025, and expect more in 2026.

Yeah, cheap oil means cheap gasoline. But, it also means tens of thousands of well-paying jobs are likely to be cut in the next year. JP Morgan sees a path downward to $30 in the next two years. IF that were to happen, all hell breaks loose in the oil industry. Short blips like what we saw at the start of Covid with the USO going negative for a flash and prices artificially under $30 were rough, but short lived. A down market over 1.5 years is wholly different altogether.

what does this do for Texas state govt revenues?

"For the smaller, independent producer/operators, they're getting beat to smithereens right now. I know of at least 75 operators in Texas that will be folding up their businesses in 2025, and expect more in 2026."

When you say "folding up" do you mean bankruptcy just shutting in production?

normalhorn said:

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Sims said:

---

DrEvazanPhD said:

---

AJ02 said:

---

It's already affecting us O&G folks.

---

Yep.

Strangely though, we've been at this low-60/high-50 price point for a while, and I haven't seen much in the way of rigs dropping. I wonder if after q4 earnings calls we'll see some of the majors pull back

---

Permian resources noted in their Q3 disclosures an 11% reduction relative to 2024 in drilling cost per lateral foot. Which likely translates to faster drilling (feet/day)

Cevitas Q1 showed drilling times about 10% faster than plan.

Enverus emphasized batch drilling and longer laterals (13k ft)

All of that points to less rigs to accomplish the same thing. Now to what degree the producers are completing the wells at current prices, I dunno. Maybe easier to just drill ducs and wait for prices.

---

I've consulted for both PermRes and Citivitas over the last two years, and yes, the longer NYMEX trades under $60, the longer they'll be pausing any drilling programs from 2Q next year on. BakerHughes rig count tracking data points have been flatlined for months on end also.

For the smaller, independent producer/operators, they're getting beat to smithereens right now. I know of at least 75 operators in Texas that will be folding up their businesses in 2025, and expect more in 2026.

Yeah, cheap oil means cheap gasoline. But, it also means tens of thousands of well-paying jobs are likely to be cut in the next year. JP Morgan sees a path downward to $30 in the next two years. IF that were to happen, all hell breaks loose in the oil industry. Short blips like what we saw at the start of Covid with the USO going negative for a flash and prices artificially under $30 were rough, but short lived. A down market over 1.5 years is wholly different altogether.

---

And their base case scenario is near $60 over the time span. You could do monte carlo simulation for any number of scenarios but they decided $30 wasn't the likely one.

They said $30 was a bearish RISK case with an oil glut and no restrictions on production..not a forecast.

Given the consolidation of the last few years...there's almost zero chance production wouldn't be curtailed if that were the case. The majors win on price, not volume.

I agree with you, 100% that all hell would break loose. I also know all hell would break loose if a meteor hit my truck on the way home - I just don't gameplan for it.

We build upstream equipment primarly bound for the permian, our backlog has been picking up steam since August. 2026 looks like it will be a good year for us.

Sims said:

---

DrEvazanPhD said:

---

AJ02 said:

---

It's already affecting us O&G folks.

---

Yep.

Strangely though, we've been at this low-60/high-50 price point for a while, and I haven't seen much in the way of rigs dropping. I wonder if after q4 earnings calls we'll see some of the majors pull back

---

Permian resources noted in their Q3 disclosures an 11% reduction relative to 2024 in drilling cost per lateral foot. Which likely translates to faster drilling (feet/day)

Cevitas Q1 showed drilling times about 10% faster than plan.

Enverus emphasized batch drilling and longer laterals (13k ft)

All of that points to less rigs to accomplish the same thing. Now to what degree the producers are completing the wells at current prices, I dunno. Maybe easier to just drill ducs and wait for prices.

---

That's quite a jump in performance. New technology come on-line or something? Could also be more experienced staff retaining oil-field jobs since the job market sucks.

MAROON said:

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"For the smaller, independent producer/operators, they're getting beat to smithereens right now. I know of at least 75 operators in Texas that will be folding up their businesses in 2025, and expect more in 2026."

When you say "folding up" do you mean bankruptcy just shutting in production?

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Combination of shutting in production and selling off assets, mainly. We've heard from dozens of operator/producers that simply can't pay their bills.

Bird Poo said:

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Sims said:

---

DrEvazanPhD said:

---

AJ02 said:

---

It's already affecting us O&G folks.

---

Yep.

Strangely though, we've been at this low-60/high-50 price point for a while, and I haven't seen much in the way of rigs dropping. I wonder if after q4 earnings calls we'll see some of the majors pull back

---

Permian resources noted in their Q3 disclosures an 11% reduction relative to 2024 in drilling cost per lateral foot. Which likely translates to faster drilling (feet/day)

Cevitas Q1 showed drilling times about 10% faster than plan.

Enverus emphasized batch drilling and longer laterals (13k ft)

All of that points to less rigs to accomplish the same thing. Now to what degree the producers are completing the wells at current prices, I dunno. Maybe easier to just drill ducs and wait for prices.

---

That's quite a jump in performance. New technology come on-line or something? Could also be more experienced staff retaining oil-field jobs since the job market sucks.

---

People are pushing the limits even more these days. I think downhole tool and rubber components are making a huge difference on the exploration side. Operators are spending more time on bottom as opposed to tripping for tool failures. Laterals are not only being pushed out farther on six and eight well pads, but u-turn wells are gaining steam. Think two laterals with one vertical section as opposed to two. Operators are also "wine racking" their laterals in existing fields where they might not have in the past. Basically it's becoming incredibly efficient while squeezing every bit of production out of acreage.

makes sense.

We sell production casing and tubing and have not seen much in the way of A/R aging deterioration so far. But were hyper focused on creditability and basically require E&P to send us financials if they want credit. In the go go old days they always refused but after COVID we've basically held our ground - no financials no pipe.

Dungeon Crawler Carl said:

---

And just like that, Texas Tech has lost their entire football team to the transfer portal. -OS https://t.co/DNq3FeGCsb

— Lyndon Baines Johnson (@lyndonbajohnson) December 16, 2025

At what point does a low price really impact the O&G folks?

And what is the cause of this price dip......With all of the geo-political issues going on, shouldn't it be much higher?

---

Know how I know you haven't watched Landman?

TommyBrady said:

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For all you O&G folks my wife's grandparents have somewhere over 100 active wells in Andrews and Ward Counties

How much would that bring in yearly and over the life of a well? Most were drilled in the last 10- 15 years and the last about 2-3 years ago. Just going off average royalty and production.

I know it can vary a bunch and this is crazy ballpark numbers but we were just trying to figure out what might be the situation.

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Have y'all considered simply asking the grandparents how much money they make off the wells?

It's kind of impossible to answer that question without knowing where the wells are, what the productivity of each well is, etc