Ryan the Temp said:

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Queso1 said:

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Alcohol is a poison and known carcinogen.

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And the most likely cause of my dad's Alzheimer's.

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How do you figure that? Correlation vs causation vs conjecture?

I can do the same. I have multiple family members who've had Alzheimers who never drank a drop of alcohol or used any drugs.

Came here for the cheap whiskey. Left with the gathering of nuns, baptist deacons, and the women's auxiliary clamoring for a return to prohibition.

I used to buy a six pack or two of good beer a week, or a bottle of bourbon or scotch every couple of weeks, and stop off for a beer after work here and there. Now that getting a good beer at a bar will run you $7 a pop and a 6 at the store is over $10 I almost never grab a drink while out, don't buy liquor, and am throttling my weekly beer consumption back to near negligible. The value isn't there for me anymore, and probably never will be again at these prices. I'm sure it's better for my health too, at this age.

The last 8 years of my career were spent in Quality for a nationwide distiller.

As others have said, the Beam news is a diversion from what is actually happening in the licquor business. Consumption is down in beer, wine, and distilled spirits thanks to a younger generation who does not drink to the level of their older generations.

This past year, the bourbon industry has halted production by more than 55 million proof-gallons, representing a 28% downshift. To put that in layman's terms, one proof gallon is one physical gallon of spirits at 100 proof. Since most whiskey is sold at 80 proof (or so), that represents 68 million gallons of bourbon whiskey.

The article states the cause is tariffs. Then reduce your gross margin. My entire career was spent in the Food & Beverage industry and I was shocked at the gross margins in distilled spirits. Something like 55-60%. Other than the Federal tax, the most expensive component of that bottle of bourbon is the glass jar. Quite a wake up call when you've worked in the meat industry and were used to single digits.

The BIG loser in this is the Fed (or TTB to be specific). The tax on one proof gallon of spirits is $13.50. That's close to $750 million dollars.

Factoid : Only Americans drink Jim Beam when they travel abroad. (from personal observations)

Yesterday said:

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I call BS. Easy excuse for the lack of alcohol sales. My wife works in the industry...people, especially the younger generations are not drinking anymore. It's hurting all alcohol sales.

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A few years ago I took the family on a trip to S Padre during Spring Break where my wife's cousin lives. We were walking around on the beach watching the college kids and I found a big group of Aggies to chat with. Not a single one of the dozens of Aggies had an alcoholic beverage. As I walked down the beach I would say less than 20% of the thousand college kids I saw were drinking. I had a box of Bocks and tossed one to a friendly Aggie and he ran over to his buddies and showed it to them like it was the holy grail or something. I found the lack of alcohol odd. Lots of them vaping so maybe they were weed pens.

Another anecdote, last week I attended a graduation party for my wife's niece who attended Texas State. There were a dozen of the niece's friends there and her mom had a cooler full of beer, hard seltzers, High Noons, etc and they didn't touch them. Texas State was a party school when I was in college.

doubledog said:

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Factoid : Only Americans drink Jim Beam when they travel abroad. (from personal observations)

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This. I don't think we are losing a whole lot in exports of whiskey. However, for bourbon, I would imagine that they make some good money selling their barrel to distillers in Scotland (scotch is made with used bourbon barrels, while bourbon is only made with new barrels). If sales of scotch are lagging, due to decreased consumption and import tariffs, then demand for used bourbon barrels would be falling as well. Might result in more aging and trying to make up for the quantity loss by selling more specialty aged products.

BudAg97 said:

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Yesterday said:

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I call BS. Easy excuse for the lack of alcohol sales. My wife works in the industry...people, especially the younger generations are not drinking anymore. It's hurting all alcohol sales.

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I can attest to this. I'm in the beer business and my wife is in the wine industry. Alcohol sales across the board are declining. Young people aren't going out and they are not drinking as much.

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I think my 4 boys are brining up the average though!

Kaiser von Wilhelm said:

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Ryan the Temp said:

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Queso1 said:

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Alcohol is a poison and known carcinogen.

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And the most likely cause of my dad's Alzheimer's.

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How do you figure that? Correlation vs causation vs conjecture?

I can do the same. I have multiple family members who've had Alzheimers who never drank a drop of alcohol or used any drugs.

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My mother was taken by alzhiemers, caused apparently by crossword puzzles. Drinking has kept my dad's mind healthy for 93 years.

DannyDuberstein said:

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People are drinking less. Lifestyles of youth have changed. Some people are using gummies. A lot of people are tracking their sleep with devices and learning just how much alcohol wrecks their sleep.

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Anecdotal here, but my wife has an Oura ring, and I got a Whoop band in black Friday. It really is remarkable how much alcohol impacts sleep, especially for a middle aged guy like me. I've cut way back on booze, and while I don't use all the daily log functionality, I have been making much better overall choices.

Glad people in at least some ways are taking health more seriously earlier in their lives.

Still hoping the tariff situation impacts the number of countries willing to buy allocated bourbons. Need to keep these at home. What ever happened to America First?

Rich people abroad are willing to pay the high prices to get them.

That being said, there has been a general softening in the bourbon market. Distillers have been ramping up production to meet demand, and when people start buying less of a product that takes 4+ years to make it to market, prices have to come down to clear out that oversupply. Throw in a general reduction in alcohol consumption, general intolerance of sky-high allocated bourbon prices, and tariffs to a lesser degree, and this is what you get. Some stuff that used to be allocation only is starting to very slowly show back up on shelves.

Bourbon sucks.

Entry level booze for those that can't handle scotch.

I think tariffs as the cause are mostly bull***** They may be contributing some minor amount but it's been known for a few years now that alcohol sales are declining. Go look at some 10ks (notably AB) and you will find that their N/A revenue streams are climbing at significantly higher rates than their traditional alcoholic offerings. The younger crowd is not drinking nearly as much as Gen X did. Note the rise of mocktail offerings at any mid to high level restaurant or bar as well. These didn't really exist 5+ years ago and now most establishments that aren't blue collar have a mocktail menu.

The number of different N/A beers has exploded in the last five years as well. There used to 1-2 options out there and now pretty much everyone offers an N/A beer.

In addition, I won't speak for Alzheimer's but alcohol can absolutely destroy your brain and kill you. Alcohol induced dementia killed one of our family members. It was diagnosed by a neuro guy. Considering the somewhat gray area between dementia and Alzheimer's it could stand to reason it might be a cause for either one.

CrackerJackAg said:

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Bourbon sucks.

Entry level booze for those that can't handle scotch.

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Almost all bourbon tastes the same. It baffles me that people obsess over it and collect it the way they do. I've had one bourbon that separated itself from the pack of what almost all bourbon tastes like (which is burning) and that's Old Forester Birthday Bourbon.

Irish Whiskey is superior to almost every bourbon made.

Regardless, I drink very little of any of these days and actually haven't had a drop in almost a month now which is probably the longest I've gone without alcohol since I was 15. lol. It was forced upon me but I'm going to let it ride and see how long I can maintain it.

BudAg97 said:

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Yesterday said:

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I call BS. Easy excuse for the lack of alcohol sales. My wife works in the industry...people, especially the younger generations are not drinking anymore. It's hurting all alcohol sales.

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I can attest to this. I'm in the beer business and my wife is in the wine industry. Alcohol sales across the board are declining. Young people aren't going out and they are not drinking as much.

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It's all about price. When people who don't have money are forced to pay premium prices for non-premium products, products that are discretionary in nature, while their wages are not keeping up with price increases for everything they actually need, they pull back.

It's that simple.

FWIW, there is a reason young people are not drinking alcohol like we did. And it isn't because of price.

Kids are overwhelmingly medicated. Between "ADHD" and Anti-Depressants, young kids can't drink as much. They have to decide in the morning if they are taking their Meds... or drinking.

Add to that the lax Weed/THC/DeltaVape... kids are getting drugged with other intoxicants than alcohol.

One other point, there are so many resell boutique bourbons now. Metallica, et al, have decided to put their label on a bottle and source into the market.

Covid did what it was intended to do. Big Pharma has made it acceptable to get dependent on their "licensed" and "approved" drugs.

The Bill will come due and the consequences are TBD. But, IMO, it will pay a price.

I stopped drinking during COVID in my upper 30s. I'm shocked at the # of people I've met who went the same direction. I am probably smack dab in the middle of the target market for this ***** Completely anecdotal, but I'm not shocked.

Its jim bean... The world losees nothing of value by them shutting down.

It's not just them. Knob Creek, Basil Hayden's, Bookers, and Baker's all fall under the Jim Beam family. Those don't exactly suck.

HTownAg98 said:

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Rich people abroad are willing to pay the high prices to get them.

That being said, there has been a general softening in the bourbon market. Distillers have been ramping up production to meet demand, and when people start buying less of a product that takes 4+ years to make it to market, prices have to come down to clear out that oversupply. Throw in a general reduction in alcohol consumption, general intolerance of sky-high allocated bourbon prices, and tariffs to a lesser degree, and this is what you get. Some stuff that used to be allocation only is starting to very slowly show back up on shelves.

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I don't disagree -- but let them pay secondary prices vs. sending allocations that way.

But you are right. McKenna 10 sitting on shelves, Elijah Craig Toasted and Barrel Proof sitting on shelfs at ALL stores is definitely a big change from a few years ago.

Would be nice if W12 and Antique could start doing the same...

Kaiser von Wilhelm said:

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Ryan the Temp said:

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Queso1 said:

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Alcohol is a poison and known carcinogen.

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And the most likely cause of my dad's Alzheimer's.

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How do you figure that? Correlation vs causation vs conjecture?

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That was the assessment of multiple doctors during his diagnosis and subsequent care.

I'm doing my part to keep alcohol sales up.

But I will add that Mounjaro and similar drugs have caused a slowdown in drinking, as well.

As Willie says "there's more old drunks than there are old doctors".