Energy is the lifeblood of a modern economy. The US, NATO, Venezuela, and Guyana now have about 30% of global oil reserves. OPEC without Venezuela falls to about 60% and Russia is about 5%

It's going to take many billions to rebuild Venezuela oil infrastructure. If you're a US oil company, you need to evaluate if your capital is better spent in the Permian where so much money has already been invested or moving over to this shiny new toy. At the same time, Wallstreet will punish you if you slow down on dividend and share buybacks.

PDVSA and Venezuela are about 1M BOE/day. For context ExxonMobil is about 5M BOE/day though or 3M crude/day. The big guys are going to need very favorable terms to commit there and rebuild the physical but also legal infrastructure. There won't be significant production increase in the short term. I think the risk is less production if this turns chaotic which would be good for Permian in short term. The oil infrastructure wasn't damaged and we'll need the oil to keep flowing so the people don't riot. Overall think the markets won't and shouldn't react. If they tank the futures Sunday night, BUY!

I'm not saying the majority but a fair bit of the production volume can probably be restored cheaply . Not sure about pipelines or storage tho. Agree that terms are going to need to be pretty good for the majors to bite but the Exxons and Chevrons and Shells take the long view.

Relative to say deep water I would think volumes could be added quickly if the economics are there.

Dan Scott said:

---

Energy is the lifeblood of a modern economy. The US, NATO, Venezuela, and Guyana now have about 30% of global oil reserves. OPEC without Venezuela falls to about 60% and Russia is about 5%

It's going to take many billions to rebuild Venezuela oil infrastructure. If you're a US oil company, you need to evaluate if your capital is better spent in the Permian where so much money has already been invested or moving over to this shiny new toy. At the same time, Wallstreet will punish you if you slow down on dividend and share buybacks.

PDVSA and Venezuela are about 1M BOE/day. For context ExxonMobil is about 5M BOE/day though or 3M crude/day. The big guys are going to need very favorable terms to commit there and rebuild the physical but also legal infrastructure. There won't be significant production increase in the short term. I think the risk is less production if this turns chaotic which would be good for Permian in short term. The oil infrastructure wasn't damaged and we'll need the oil to keep flowing so the people don't riot. Overall think the markets won't and shouldn't react. If they tank the futures Sunday night, BUY!

---

Could Musk and Bezos foot the bill in partnership with U.S. Oil Companies to rebuild the oil infrastructure in Venezuela?

I'm curious what their needs are?:

• ships - oil tankers
• port facilities
• pipelines
• refineries
• trucks
• tank batterys
• oil well service companies/equipment/supplies
• tubing
• drilling, workover, wireline etc
• etc

Curious:

• how much of Venezuela oil production is offshore/onshore?
• how much of their oil reserves are totally undeveloped?
• how much of their developed oil reserves could produce much more with U.S. oil recovery technologies?

OldAg68 said:

---

Their oil infrastructure started declining the day Chavez took over. I'm guessing it's in pretty bad shape and will take big bucks to rebuild/modernize.

---

It was my understanding its worse than a blank slate. They didn't abandon anything properly and it will take more effort and money than it did the first time to get things running again.

That is if you care even a little about the environment and quality of life of the people there.

its a big dollar sum. about ten years ago at an old job some guy representing a potential transition regime came to us as a service provider to help with their grid rehabilitation plan because we'd worked on those sites / units in the past. getting that country back to some semblance of stability is not easy. a lot of running things til they die / no maintenance, sitting idle, and ripping parts / looting to the point of extreme damage of assets.

Political stability will have to be first. Then clear and enforceable rules, as well as trust that someone won't just come back in and nationalize it all over again. Then investment to rebuild the infrastructure. No matter what is said, it is going to take years for Venezuelan production see meaningful increases

OldAg68 said:

---

Their oil infrastructure started declining the day Chavez took over. I'm guessing it's in pretty bad shape and will take big bucks to rebuild/modernize.

---

thousands of eyebrows just raised in Houston

Dan Scott said:

---

Energy is the lifeblood of a modern economy. The US, NATO, Venezuela, and Guyana now have about 30% of global oil reserves. OPEC without Venezuela falls to about 60% and Russia is about 5%

It's going to take many billions to rebuild Venezuela oil infrastructure. If you're a US oil company, you need to evaluate if your capital is better spent in the Permian where so much money has already been invested or moving over to this shiny new toy. At the same time, Wallstreet will punish you if you slow down on dividend and share buybacks.

PDVSA and Venezuela are about 1M BOE/day. For context ExxonMobil is about 5M BOE/day though or 3M crude/day. The big guys are going to need very favorable terms to commit there and rebuild the physical but also legal infrastructure. There won't be significant production increase in the short term. I think the risk is less production if this turns chaotic which would be good for Permian in short term. The oil infrastructure wasn't damaged and we'll need the oil to keep flowing so the people don't riot. Overall think the markets won't and shouldn't react. If they tank the futures Sunday night, BUY!

---

Spot on

I don't expect price movement. Black market supply and demand is now going to legit market. China will have to pay more.

samurai_science said:

---

Why would the Permian basin want more oil to enter the market and lower prices? They are hurt by this

---

VZ crude is very heavy and hard and expansive to refine. Will it impact things? yes but not as much as you may think

ttu_85 said:

---

samurai_science said:

---

Why would the Permian basin want more oil to enter the market and lower prices? They are hurt by this

---

VZ crude is very heavy and hard and expansive to refine. Will it impact things? yes but not as much as you may think

---

Is their crude to same as what's next door in Guyana?

Ven crudes are wildly profitable for the majority of US Gulf Coast refineries. Having them available in volume is a good thing.

If US refiners only had access to permian crude we would make less gasoline, diesel, and kero without significant capital investment. We need the heavy barrels.

Guyana due to the FPSOs will also be slow to get volume to market. Takes a while to build them.

samurai_science said:

---

Why would the Permian basin want more oil to enter the market and lower prices? They are hurt by this

---

China is not disappearing. They will still be buying oil. There is no other black market oil.

Musk and Bezos?

Neither have any oil experience and Musk is heavy into electric which would put oil production as a competitor

Leave it up to Chevron, Exxon and other majors with the experience

Also need a functioning government in place that rewards privately investment which Venezuela has never really had

Logos Stick said:

---

samurai_science said:

---

Why would the Permian basin want more oil to enter the market and lower prices? They are hurt by this

---

China is not disappearing. They will still be buying oil. There is no other black market oil.

---

That has nothing to do with what I said. If you increase the supply the price goes down.

samurai_science said:

---

Logos Stick said:

---

samurai_science said:

---

Why would the Permian basin want more oil to enter the market and lower prices? They are hurt by this

---

China is not disappearing. They will still be buying oil. There is no other black market oil.

---

That has nothing to do with what I said. If you increase the supply the price goes down.

---

Yes it does. If you increase supply AND demand remains fixed, price should go down. That's not happening. Both supply and demand are going up. China will now be buying that oil in the global market.

samurai_science said:

---

Why would the Permian basin want more oil to enter the market and lower prices? They are hurt by this

---

True, they wouldn't. Every American who wants cheaper gas prices, though, would love it. Hopefully, Trump finds a way to use Venezuela as a way to flood our country with cheap oil and drive prices down.

That would help the right greatly in the midterms.

I'm reading speculation that we will sell Venezuelan oil cheap - off market - to China and India for now to put pressure on Russia.

nortex97 said:

---

Nato is in truth an enemy to US interests, not an ally full stop.

---

Wait till the Euro's stop buying LockMart.

nortex97 said:

---

Nato is in truth an enemy to US interests, not an ally full stop.

---

abolish NATO

TAL06RES said:

---

Political stability will have to be first. Then clear and enforceable rules, as well as trust that someone won't just come back in and nationalize it all over again. Then investment to rebuild the infrastructure. No matter what is said, it is going to take years for Venezuelan production see meaningful increases

---

Agree on the political stability. Venezuela must have viable and reliable political leadership in place first.

Losing my mind. Dude on X trying to argue with me that US refining can't handle taking on production of Venezuelan crude and that we'll just have to export it to China anyway. Yes, we will export to China but don't require China.

The only oil coming out of Venezuela now is Chevron oil bound for the US. Venezuela is now seeking debt relief from China since a portion of that oil is debt payment.

This means Chinese demand on legit oil will put pressure on prices.

Quote:

---

Venezuela's state-run oil company PDVSA has begun cutting crude production because it is running out of storage capacity due to an ongoing U.S. oil blockade that has reduced exports to zero...

---

Quote:

---

Published Jan 5, 2026 5:37 PM by The Maritime Executive

On Monday, the latest consignment of Venezuelan oil for U.S. supermajor Chevron departed for the Gulf Coast, a show of continuity after the U.S. capture of former dictator Nicolas Maduro last weekend. It was the first Chevron cargo to depart since January 1, according to Reuters.

---

If you are a US oil company, and you can buy a guaranteed supply of crude for, let's say, 10 years at below current market price by about 20%, with an obligation to invest about half of that on an ongoing basis to expand production, you take that in a heartbeat.

Venezuela pumps out about 1B barrels each day. Heavy crude is, let's say, $40 a bbl right now. You buy 10% of Venezuela production at a 20% discount, that is about $150 billion in profit for the first year of business, and $150 billion in infrastructure investment in Venezuela, and that $150 billion investment secures you future production at your own operating costs. This isn't a fallow industry, they produce crude, and that current production is up for grabs. The payback period of investment in expanding Venezuela infrastructure could easily be negative days, as you would start buying oil on the cheap on day 1 of the contract, before you invested a dime.

Aligning interests here between big oil, the U.S. government, and the people of Venezuela should be pretty easy contractually.

If only we had a good dealmaker somewhere in a leadership position in the White House.

K2-HMFIC said:

---

nortex97 said:

---

Nato is in truth an enemy to US interests, not an ally full stop.

---

Wait till the Euro's stop buying LockMart.

---

They are already trying their damndest, but fwiw the Euro stealth fighter projects (there are two, Tempest and FCAS) are still probably 15-20 years away from initial operating capability, if ever.

UK, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain, and Denmark have launched a joint statement saying Greenland belongs to Denmark.

— WarMonitor🇺🇦🇬🇧 (@WarMonitor3) January 6, 2026

Bring our boys home.

ttu_85 said:

---

samurai_science said:

---

Why would the Permian basin want more oil to enter the market and lower prices? They are hurt by this

---

VZ crude is very heavy and hard and expansive to refine. Will it impact things? yes but not as much as you may think

---

On the contrary, my understanding is Texas refineries love it to blend with light, crappy Eagle Ford shale oil. With Venezuelan and Russian heavy sidelined recently, we've been scrambling to find substitutes. Mexican Maya is being used quite a bit, but the sheer volumes of Venezuelan heavy and Eagle Ford were made for each other.

Interesting...

Quote:

---

At least sixteen oil tankers under sanctions imposed by the United States are currently in the process of attempting to evade and possibly break the U.S. Navy's "complete blockade" in the Southern Caribbean, which was ordered by President Donald J. Trump to be positioned around Venezuela, according to The New York Times and TankerTrackers.

---

At least sixteen oil tankers under sanctions imposed by the United States are currently in the process of attempting to evade and possibly break the U.S. Navy’s “complete blockade” in the Southern Caribbean, which was ordered by President Donald J. Trump to be positioned around… pic.twitter.com/3r89NviGW0

— OSINTdefender (@sentdefender) January 6, 2026