The Rise of Prediction Markets

6,938 Views | 71 Replies | Last: 5 days ago by Zachary Klement
The Sun
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Rapier108 said:

If there is a nuclear war, who the hell is going to be spending the money?

Any survivors sure as hell aren't going to be using it for anything other than starting a fire.

Thinking this is a predictor of a nuclear war is beyond ******ed.


Thinking these are predictors of anything is beyond ******ed. It's just sports betting in a different package.
Pizza
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The Sun said:

Rapier108 said:

If there is a nuclear war, who the hell is going to be spending the money?

Any survivors sure as hell aren't going to be using it for anything other than starting a fire.

Thinking this is a predictor of a nuclear war is beyond ******ed.


Thinking these are predictors of anything is beyond ******ed. It's just sports betting in a different package.


100%.

People can play all the word games they want. It's gambling
lb3
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AG
Pizza said:

The Sun said:

Rapier108 said:

If there is a nuclear war, who the hell is going to be spending the money?

Any survivors sure as hell aren't going to be using it for anything other than starting a fire.

Thinking this is a predictor of a nuclear war is beyond ******ed.


Thinking these are predictors of anything is beyond ******ed. It's just sports betting in a different package.


100%.

People can play all the word games they want. It's gambling
I've got a coworker who bets in these markets based on economic news. She doesn't realize the AI bots are first movers taking the lions share of profits on daily swings and the insiders are taking the rest.
Martels Hammer
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Detmersdislocatedshoulder said:

Ozzy Osbourne said:

Gambling is ruining almost everything. This Texags post is brought to you by FanDuel.


were way past that's it is brought to you by Brawndo the electrolyte enhancer.

Im Gipper
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Feds want their cut!



I'm Gipper
Im Gipper
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I'm Gipper
Im Gipper
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I'm Gipper
4
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AG
That's stupid.

That's like kicking Pete Rose out of baseball because he bet on his own team to win.
Im Gipper
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4 said:

That's stupid.


Don't do the crime if you can't do the time!

Quote:


That's like kicking Pete Rose out of baseball because he bet on his own team to win.


Interested in buying a bridge?

I'm Gipper
Gaeilge
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She's right ya know…
Jock 07
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AG
I'm certainly no UCMJ expert but why is this being handled by the DOJ vs military legal channels?
Gaeilge
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Securities fraud. Likely not much of a mechanism for it in the UCMJ. I imagine they can Article 13 him as well, but if convicted it won't really matter.
Kansas Kid
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4 said:

That's stupid.

That's like kicking Pete Rose out of baseball because he bet on his own team to win.

Difference here is if people monitoring these prediction markers see substantial jumps, it could tip off a military action and put troops at risk.
Hullabaloonatic
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This is super ****ed and all this "crowd sourcing" gambling **** needs oversight and regulation.
Queso1
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AG
4 said:

That's stupid.

That's like kicking Pete Rose out of baseball because he bet on his own team to win.


Are you serious? Really?
AggieVictor10
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AG
Gambling
Queso1
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AG
That's not the point at all. A system can't operate where some profit off of decisions made at the highest level. I understand that there will always be immoral graft by parasites, but we don't have to accept open and notorious corruption.

Maybe I'm just old fashioned or one of those Tucker Carlson nutcase conservatives. Either way, I don't want to live under whatever system you justify.
Kansas Kid
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Queso1 said:

That's not the point at all. A system can't operate where some profit off of decisions made at the highest level. I understand that there will always be immoral graft by parasites, but we don't have to accept open and notorious corruption.

Maybe I'm just old fashioned or one of those Tucker Carlson nutcase conservatives. Either way, I don't want to live under whatever system you justify.

I totally agree with prosecuting this guy because I oppose all insider trading. My issue with the STOCK bill is it exempts the President and VP. There should be no exceptions and all money should be held either in broad index funds or better yet, a blind trust for all senior government officials.

I view this case as worse than Pete Rose or even Congressional insider trading because it could jeopardize the lives of American servicemen and jeopardize the success of their mission.
P.H. Dexippus
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AG
Queso1 said:

Maybe I'm just old fashioned or one of those Tucker Carlson nutcase conservatives. Either way, I don't want to live under whatever system you justify.

FIFY. TC isn't conservative, at least not this latest iteration.
Dan Scott
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AG
A bunch of scum profiting way more from insider trading and we target the soldier who did it.

There are some crimes regular people can't get away with.
PDEMDHC
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AG
Kansas Kid said:

4 said:

That's stupid.

That's like kicking Pete Rose out of baseball because he bet on his own team to win.

Difference here is if people monitoring these prediction markers see substantial jumps, it could tip off a military action and put troops at risk.


Like when members from inside the White House or cabinet learned and used information to make bets on the day the war started or when the same accounts guessed the cease fire announcement day or any number of suspicious oil trades minutes before major price action (I think it's over $2 billion now in total bets).


I'm with the Congresswoman…. Get them all!
BMX Bandit
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Quote:

Like when members from inside the White House or cabinet learned and used information to make bets on the day the war started or when the same accounts guessed the cease fire announcement day

which accounts did this? if they were using classified info, then they too should be charged
Queso1
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AG
Disagreeing with a politician that abandoned his voters and platform (somewhat conservative) doesn't determine whether one is conservative. We aren't (or shouldn't be) like the leftists that will defend anything their leaders do or don't do.
BMX Bandit
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Queso1 said:

Disagreeing with a politician that abandoned his voters and platform (somewhat conservative) doesn't determine whether one is conservative. We aren't (or shouldn't be) like the leftists that will defend anything their leaders do or don't do.

you are correct. but promoting propaganda from enemies of america and terrorist sponsor regimes most certainly does determine one is not a conservative.
Haleyscomet50
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BMX Bandit said:

Queso1 said:

Disagreeing with a politician that abandoned his voters and platform (somewhat conservative) doesn't determine whether one is conservative. We aren't (or shouldn't be) like the leftists that will defend anything their leaders do or don't do.

you are correct. but promoting propaganda from enemies of america and terrorist sponsor regimes most certainly does determine one is not a conservative.

I get both sides but how do we address the fact alot of the propaganda is true without benefiting the enemies of America? If we don't the Epstien class will continue to do what's good for them and other countries and not the US taxpayers who fund the whole thing. Our government should exist only to benefit the American citizen as a whole not other countries that have people in high places within our government.
BusterAg
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AG
Kansas Kid said:

Queso1 said:

That's not the point at all. A system can't operate where some profit off of decisions made at the highest level. I understand that there will always be immoral graft by parasites, but we don't have to accept open and notorious corruption.

Maybe I'm just old fashioned or one of those Tucker Carlson nutcase conservatives. Either way, I don't want to live under whatever system you justify.

I totally agree with prosecuting this guy because I oppose all insider trading. My issue with the STOCK bill is it exempts the President and VP. There should be no exceptions and all money should be held either in broad index funds or better yet, a blind trust for all senior government officials.

I view this case as worse than Pete Rose or even Congressional insider trading because it could jeopardize the lives of American servicemen and jeopardize the success of their mission.

Don't let the perfect become the enemy of the awesome.

If the stock bill becomes law, POTUS will follow soon after. An opposing Congress with write the law just to stick a finger in PTOTUS' eye, and no way does he/she veto it.
BMX Bandit
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Quote:

the fact alot of the propaganda is true

with tucker, thats not happening.

Mr.Milkshake
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Rules for thee
BMX Bandit
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Quote:

If the stock bill becomes law, POTUS will follow soon after

unconstitutional as applied to president
BusterAg
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AG
BMX Bandit said:

Quote:

If the stock bill becomes law, POTUS will follow soon after

unconstitutional as applied to president

Thanks. Can you point me to the article? Not arguing, just asking.
BusterAg
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AG
Haleyscomet50 said:

alot of the propaganda is true

Explicitly what propaganda is true, and who said / says it.
Hullabaloonatic
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Dan Scott said:

A bunch of scum profiting way more from insider trading and we target the soldier who did it.

There are some crimes regular people can't get away with.

Why are we framing it this way? A soldier endangered our own national security interests to take personal profit. HOW is that not a HUGE deal?
Hullabaloonatic
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Trump just doesn't care. I have to assume it's because he's been profiting the most off these things (his tariff wishy washy, the Iran stuff, his crypto schemes). The nation is going off the rails.
nortex97
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AG
I think you missed the hilarity of his Pete Rose 'betting on his team to win' comments, and he said he'd look into it.

And the political prediction markets are as lousy analytically/empirically as the perennial The Economist and Financial Times predictions of Democrat dominance.
pfo
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AG
Hullabaloonatic said:



Trump just doesn't care. I have to assume it's because he's been profiting the most off these things (his tariff wishy washy, the Iran stuff, his crypto schemes). The nation is going off the rails.


There are much better examples of the country going off the rails than this. Here are just a few:

Democrats used taxpayer money to import 3rd world parasites, criminals and terrorists to invade our country and replace American voters and vote Dems into perpetual power. The way it's supposed to work is American citizens vote to replace politicians!

Dems don't want voter ID and proof of citizenship to vote! Again that's so non Americans can vote Dems into perpetual power.

Dems and republicans have spent America into oblivion with the only way out to destroy the value of the dollar and our way of life.

The only friend Iran's Ayatollah theocratic death machine ruling party has is the democrat party. They are fighting Trump and the world to leave Iran alone so they can build nuclear weapons to destroy the world, starting with Israel, followed by the USA and then all other non Muslims and finally all Sunni Muslims!

And worst of all, the Democrat party has done everything possible to make sure tens of millions of America babies are murdered in the womb.
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