Not much to add. Hopefully we continue this momentum.

Quote:

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unemployment rate falls to 4.4%

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https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/09/jobs-report-december-2025.html

TRM said:

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I'll disagree.
Labor force shrunk by 46k accounting for the lower than expected UE rate.

Downward revision of 68k for Oct
Downward revision of 8k for Nov

Private sector jobs only grew by 37k
Goods-producing job/manufacturing jobs down 37k
Only real growth came from healthcare and social assistance at 38.5k (which is fueled by govt spending ACA,Medicare, Medicare) and the food/bar industry.

ETA: US-born job holders decreased by 656k and foreign-born job holders grew by 310k

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Shrinking the labor force doesn't mean the UE does down. UE is a percentage. It would only go down if the rate in the the population that quit the labor force was higher than the population that remains. If the same rate in both populations then the rate would stay the same. If lower, the rate would go up.

They are saying the number of jobs went up less than we'd want, and the number of workers dropped more than we'd want, but nevertheless that means the rate looks better.

But that's a signal the economic growth is slowing.

We're probably going to need policies to increase legal immigration soon. The birth rates aren't likely to recover and even if they did, there's an 18+ year delay on that helping the workforce.

All I know is I had a good year, in 2025, and am projecting another good year in 2026. That means businesses are buying things and expanding, which is a good thing, imo.

AtomicActuator said:

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They are saying the number of jobs went up less than we'd want, and the number of workers dropped more than we'd want, but nevertheless that means the rate looks better.

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Incorrect. The rate is a survey and has no direct correlation with swings in the labor force numbers. Dropped more than we want?!?! There is no optimum number of workers in the pool. Those people may have retired for all we know. The labor pool becomes an issue when productivity goes down and labor cost goes up. Productivity went up significantly in Q4.

They can say what they want, I haven't personally known this many people out of work since 2008.

AtomicActuator said:

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We're probably going to need policies to increase legal immigration soon. The birth rates aren't likely to recover and even if they did, there's an 18+ year delay on that helping the workforce.

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Seen more and more comments like this and I'm not sure where it's coming from. Probably some youtube fear monger or the like. Historically, populations fluctuate for a variety of reasons, but notably so in times of prosperity. Whether that be monetarily, technologically, medically, etc...

If the population is reduced to 80% of X then why should GDP be required to compound at 110% of Y? When the population dips adjustments come with time, but inorganically funnelling the world into one country in order to maintain the status quo is a recipe for disaster. Adapt with the dip.

Maroon Elephant said:

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They can say what they want, I haven't personally known this many people out of work since 2008.

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Hmm, I don't know anyone out of work. In fact, we RIFed a bunch of folks a couple of months ago and the ones I personally know are all employed again. Perhaps it is the particular field they are in?!

AtomicActuator said:

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They are saying the number of jobs went up less than we'd want, and the number of workers dropped more than we'd want, but nevertheless that means the rate looks better.

But that's a signal the economic growth is slowing.

We're probably going to need policies to increase legal immigration soon. The birth rates aren't likely to recover and even if they did, there's an 18+ year delay on that helping the workforce.

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BS! There's a huge workforce sitting on the sidelines because the government (we) pay them to do nothing. People will go to work when they aren't supported by the government.

One note about the native versus foreign born numbers...

Foreign born (legal and illegal) for the full year 2025 went down 662,000 workers. Native born workers rose by 2+ million.

Yes, foreign worker numbers did rise a bit in December, but overall the direction is good.

Don't be fooled. Job market still is crap. This is just creative math.

But we are headed in the right direction.

Kick out H1Bs.

Maroon Elephant said:

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They can say what they want, I haven't personally known this many people out of work since 2008.

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The gyms are full these days - at 10am!! And lots of young working age people, not just olds.

So it shows that the job market still is bad.,

HumpitPuryear said:

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AtomicActuator said:

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They are saying the number of jobs went up less than we'd want, and the number of workers dropped more than we'd want, but nevertheless that means the rate looks better.

But that's a signal the economic growth is slowing.

We're probably going to need policies to increase legal immigration soon. The birth rates aren't likely to recover and even if they did, there's an 18+ year delay on that helping the workforce.

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BS! There's a huge workforce sitting on the sidelines because the government (we) pay them to do nothing. People will go to work when they aren't supported by the government.

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Govt pays only for 6 months. After that, nothing.

infinity ag said:

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HumpitPuryear said:

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AtomicActuator said:

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They are saying the number of jobs went up less than we'd want, and the number of workers dropped more than we'd want, but nevertheless that means the rate looks better.

But that's a signal the economic growth is slowing.

We're probably going to need policies to increase legal immigration soon. The birth rates aren't likely to recover and even if they did, there's an 18+ year delay on that helping the workforce.

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BS! There's a huge workforce sitting on the sidelines because the government (we) pay them to do nothing. People will go to work when they aren't supported by the government.

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Govt pays only for 6 months. After that, nothing.

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LOL, there are umpteen different ways to get around limits. Claim a disability, get pregnant, go to job training, or outright fraud, etc.

HumpitPuryear said:

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infinity ag said:

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HumpitPuryear said:

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AtomicActuator said:

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They are saying the number of jobs went up less than we'd want, and the number of workers dropped more than we'd want, but nevertheless that means the rate looks better.

But that's a signal the economic growth is slowing.

We're probably going to need policies to increase legal immigration soon. The birth rates aren't likely to recover and even if they did, there's an 18+ year delay on that helping the workforce.

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BS! There's a huge workforce sitting on the sidelines because the government (we) pay them to do nothing. People will go to work when they aren't supported by the government.

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Govt pays only for 6 months. After that, nothing.

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LOL, there are umpteen different ways to get around limits. Claim a disability, get pregnant, go to job training, or outright fraud, etc.

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OK. I was thinking of the non-fraudulent ways.

Thanks for pointing it out.

My company (big tech) is significantly increasing hiring for 2026 and are going to significantly decrease the amount of visa eligible roles and hiring of students who are on OPT Work Permits that will eventually require a visa. We are far from alone. Companies are feeling real pressure to get below 15% visas and hire American citizens or at least GC holders. BTW this is not something that companies are bragging about as they just don't want publicity on the issue either way as a pro visa or anti visa company. Companies are getting back in the business of business and not making political statements.

It's still going to take some time for many to see it but make no mistake there are big moves happening that are going to dramatically help US Citizens in the employment market, you just probably won't see a lot of stories on the subject for a variety of reasons. It's a dramatic shift from anything I have seen in 30 years of recruiting.

LFPR dropped slightly from 62.5 to 62.4. During Trump's first term, we were in the high 62's and low 63's consistently. Still have a way to go.

You're subtracting away unemployed workers that aren't looking for a job so it makes the rate look better.

And you didn't address the lack of new professional jobs available.

The decrease was people taking paid protestor positions with the democrats.

HumpitPuryear said:

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Two months of revisions down and funny math. Democrats and Republicans both manipulate the numbers. You have to trust your eyes these days not what government publishes.

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This

Govt numbers are bunk, regardless of party.

Maroon Elephant said:

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They can say what they want, I haven't personally known this many people out of work since 2008.

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Yep

And our hours are getting cut due to massive cost increases. So, our version of an H1B CEO is cutting the hours of the lowest income types of jobs .... You know, the ones wo actually make the product.

Again, govt numbers mean nothing anymore. Enron style book cooking that would make WorldCom blush.

TRM said:

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I'll disagree.
Labor force shrunk by 46k accounting for the lower than expected UE rate.

Downward revision of 68k for Oct
Downward revision of 8k for Nov

Private sector jobs only grew by 37k
Goods-producing job/manufacturing jobs down 37k
Only real growth came from healthcare and social assistance at 38.5k (which is fueled by govt spending ACA,Medicare, Medicare) and the food/bar industry.

ETA: US-born job holders decreased by 656k and foreign-born job holders grew by 310k

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Hours worked also dropped to 34.2 which is the second lowest level in 15 years. Anyone who thinks this is a good jobs number is only looking at the headline UE rate which is misleading.

TRM said:

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You're subtracting away unemployed workers that aren't looking for a job so it makes the rate look better.

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No you are not. You have no idea what the status of those people was before they left the labor pool. To perhaps help you understand suppose they all died. Those now dead people could have been 1) working, 2) not working and looking or 3) not working and not looking.

"Government isn't the answer to the problem, government is the problem"….. Ronald Reagan

Get rid of most of government and America's prosperity will explode! And stopping Gov payments to illegals and other parasites will get rid of them too.

I don't believe monthly job numbers whether it is democrats or republicans in control. I suppose they take some sample and extrapolate from there. Probably why there are often pretty large revisions.

I appreciate the points of sunshine in this thread, and I hope they are an indication of better things to come because that would be good for many of us.

From where I sit in a basic materials industry, business is awful. We've been in a demand recession for two years, and the next several months don't look any better. Incentive compensation payouts are very poor compared to historical averages.

Manufacturing in general in the US has declined 8 months in a row.

If you're connected to the AI industry, then yeah, things are booming for that sector. It is what's holding up the broader economy along with higher expenses on health care, which is good if that translates into more revenue for your company but sucks if it's a higher expense that comes out of your budget.

I'm not here to say that everything is bad, but it's not the peaches and cream either that some people are projecting.

For politics, enough voters need to actually experience and recognize an improvement trend for several months before the midterms. Otherwise, I fear the Dems will take one if not both chambers of Congress, and then we're looking at two years of "Trump investigations", impeachments, and all kinds of other "fun" stuff.

aggie93 said:

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My company (big tech) is significantly increasing hiring for 2026 and are going to significantly decrease the amount of visa eligible roles and hiring of students who are on OPT Work Permits that will eventually require a visa. We are far from alone. Companies are feeling real pressure to get below 15% visas and hire American citizens or at least GC holders. BTW this is not something that companies are bragging about as they just don't want publicity on the issue either way as a pro visa or anti visa company. Companies are getting back in the business of business and not making political statements.

It's still going to take some time for many to see it but make no mistake there are big moves happening that are going to dramatically help US Citizens in the employment market, you just probably won't see a lot of stories on the subject for a variety of reasons. It's a dramatic shift from anything I have seen in 30 years of recruiting.

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aggie93 always comes in with good tidings! :-D

That is great. And very much needed. I follow the foreign press a lot and they are squealing a lot. Very self-righteously though, they're claiming that we (USA) will suffer more, not them. That we need their "skills" to keep everything running. So I wonder why they care about us, they should be rejoicing at our downfall. Well well.

I understand what you are saying, companies cannot easily openly make a statement either way without pissing off someone and they want to avoid that.

I hear Amazon is going to layoff a lot of people on 26 Jan. Some rumblings about Microsoft also laying off a LOT in Jan.

Amazing what Trump has managed to do. He's not being out there either, very unlike himself, but he's turned the industry upside down.

As an aside this is going to take time. Companies want a gradual transition and that's better for everyone. Working on getting the visa numbers down over a couple of years is a lot smarter than radical change. Essentially people already on visa are ok for the most part assuming they stay at their current company for instance but the emphasis for companies is going to be on keeping the best employees in the hardest to fill skillsets. That actually makes sense. Add in the merit system starting to replace the lottery and more emphasis on salary being a factor (essentially if you have a high paid visa employee they are likely valuable and it also makes it so that visas are not a cost saving measure).

It's going to take some time for companies to adjust and for the domestic workforce to fill in some of the gaps. It will happen but trying to do it too suddenly would have a lot of negative consequences and could easily backfire. The goal is about giving Americans preference for American jobs and that is definitely starting to happen.