January jobs report shows payrolls grow by 130,000

8,857 Views | 182 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by flown-the-coop
infinity ag
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Sims said:

infinity ag said:

Ag87H2O said:

infinity ag said:

How is it that almost every jobs report is great, but people on Linkedin are still looking for jobs and many are about to become homeless?
The only way it is possible is if the Government is fudging numbers...

Or ... maybe the negative voices on Linkedin are just the loudest and don't represent a majority of the job seekers. People exaggerate. People are drama queens. People lie.


Or... maybe all good jobs are being shipped abroad..... or maybe the government is LYING to us just like Biden did.

Could you at least admit you are arguing from a biased position? You'll find a lot of concurrence with several of your opinions if you'll just drop the absolutism on others.

How many welders are you connected with on LinkedIn?


How many tech people are you connected with on Linkedin?
No Spin Ag
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Yesterday said:

high paying jobs doesn't churn the economy. We need those 50-75k/year jobs to start cranking out positions. Those jobs buy cars, finance homes and go on yearly vacations. The middle class needs to grow!


That's not middle class, especially if there's a family attached to those numbers. At best, that's one step above working poor.
Now if you're talking about a married couple where both are working, then you've got a point, but if you're talking that salary where there's a "Trad Wife" not making any money and there's kids as well, I don't know how they're making those purchases.
There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
backintexas2013
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AG
Learn not to code
Sims
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AG
infinity ag said:

Sims said:

infinity ag said:

Ag87H2O said:

infinity ag said:

How is it that almost every jobs report is great, but people on Linkedin are still looking for jobs and many are about to become homeless?
The only way it is possible is if the Government is fudging numbers...

Or ... maybe the negative voices on Linkedin are just the loudest and don't represent a majority of the job seekers. People exaggerate. People are drama queens. People lie.


Or... maybe all good jobs are being shipped abroad..... or maybe the government is LYING to us just like Biden did.

Could you at least admit you are arguing from a biased position? You'll find a lot of concurrence with several of your opinions if you'll just drop the absolutism on others.

How many welders are you connected with on LinkedIn?


How many tech people are you connected with on Linkedin?

Isn't that exactly the point you're refusing to acknowledge? Your experience is anecdotal and not representative of the whole.
infinity ag
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aggie93 said:

AI and Robotics are part of this, getting rid of government jobs is part of this, and cracking down on illegals is part of this. That doesn't even get into how flawed the jobs numbers are to begin with. Doesn't mean that the job market is good or bad it's just very hard to read.


AI is thrown around but no company has told us how they are using the new AI tech which needs them to cut jobs. They do big talk and then hire in India. Yes, the same companies who fired people for not being able to return to office (after being hired remotely). Their jobs are done remotely in India.

So I don't buy that AI is replacing any jobs. A very very small percent sure, as it is a tool for a human. A screwdriver cannot replace a carpenter.
infinity ag
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Sims said:

infinity ag said:

Sims said:

infinity ag said:

Ag87H2O said:

infinity ag said:

How is it that almost every jobs report is great, but people on Linkedin are still looking for jobs and many are about to become homeless?
The only way it is possible is if the Government is fudging numbers...

Or ... maybe the negative voices on Linkedin are just the loudest and don't represent a majority of the job seekers. People exaggerate. People are drama queens. People lie.


Or... maybe all good jobs are being shipped abroad..... or maybe the government is LYING to us just like Biden did.

Could you at least admit you are arguing from a biased position? You'll find a lot of concurrence with several of your opinions if you'll just drop the absolutism on others.

How many welders are you connected with on LinkedIn?


How many tech people are you connected with on Linkedin?

Isn't that exactly the point you're refusing to acknowledge? Your experience is anecdotal and not representative of the whole.


My point is the job market is BAD. Very BAD. And the data gives an opposite impression. As simple as that.

I can say the same about your experience too. Everyone's experience is anecdotal.
infinity ag
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backintexas2013 said:

Learn not to code


I guess we just listen to the Boomers and do HVAC and plumbing.
Sims
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AG
infinity ag said:


My point is the job market is BAD. Very BAD. And the data gives an opposite impression. As simple as that.

I can say the same about your experience too. Everyone's experience is anecdotal.

And you're the only one arguing as if yours isn't.
The Collective
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AG
I think we have some disruption in certain sectors or fields, and that's what you see on Linkedin. Also, those struggling are driving engagement on Linkedin... so, kind of an echo chamber.
Phatbob
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AG
It's not bad, it is shifting. That is different
backintexas2013
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It was a joke but I honestly don't care as long as people are sucking government benefits.
AxelFoley85
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Hate to break it to you but 50k-75k a year ain't buying you a home or car these days. Maybe a car if you take out 96 month note. The debt from both of those is soul crushing at that level.
Aggie_2463
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AG
Yesterday said:

high paying jobs doesn't churn the economy. We need those 50-75k/year jobs to start cranking out positions. Those jobs buy cars, finance homes and go on yearly vacations. The middle class needs to grow!


50-75k people can't even afford a home, a car and go on vacations these days.

deddog
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AG
twk said:

4% is still a lot of people. And with social media, they are more visible than they used to be.

I think the problem is worse.
The people who are still in their jobs are often miserable, because there is no job mobility, and it is very hard to switch jobs.
This is an employers market, they know it, and they know they can absolutely get away with anything. Engineers are paying recruiting companies to take them on. This job market is the worst i've seen since 2008, so that 4% unemployment number is absolute bull****
Logos Stick
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YouBet said:

Logos Stick said:

TRM said:

These aren't accurate.

They've revised last yr's job total from around 590k to 181k, so the tepid job growth was worse than what was thought.

There were 137k jobs created for healthcare in January so that means the other sectors lost 7k in January.



Numerous economists are saying as little as 20k jobs needed per month now to maintain stable employment because of immigration reductions, etc... The U6 rate also went down. LFPR ticked up. It's accurate.


Not discussed enough. There is a new normal that hasn't percolated into gen pops collective understanding yet.

Also, I wonder if early retirement is up comparatively speaking to historical norms. Covid ticked it up. I'm not sure if it ever went down considering the stock market the last five years.


On the one hand, they argue that the jobs numbers are accurate but way too low to support the current UE; UE should be higher. So the same government is manipulating UE but not the jobs numbers?! Make it make sense.

The youngest boomer is now eligible for SS (partial), so perhaps retirement is part of it.
e=mc2
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AG
infinity ag said:

Sims said:

infinity ag said:

Sims said:

infinity ag said:

Ag87H2O said:

infinity ag said:

How is it that almost every jobs report is great, but people on Linkedin are still looking for jobs and many are about to become homeless?
The only way it is possible is if the Government is fudging numbers...

Or ... maybe the negative voices on Linkedin are just the loudest and don't represent a majority of the job seekers. People exaggerate. People are drama queens. People lie.


Or... maybe all good jobs are being shipped abroad..... or maybe the government is LYING to us just like Biden did.

Could you at least admit you are arguing from a biased position? You'll find a lot of concurrence with several of your opinions if you'll just drop the absolutism on others.

How many welders are you connected with on LinkedIn?


How many tech people are you connected with on Linkedin?

Isn't that exactly the point you're refusing to acknowledge? Your experience is anecdotal and not representative of the whole.


My point is the job market is BAD. Very BAD. And the data gives an opposite impression. As simple as that.

I can say the same about your experience too. Everyone's experience is anecdotal.

Linked In is a terrible source. It's full of libs. Like 80 percent. Of course they're miserable and probably FOS.
RAB87
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AG
infinity ag said:

backintexas2013 said:

Learn not to code


I guess we just listen to the Boomers and do HVAC and plumbing.
Yeah, it would suck to do something of value.
Logos Stick
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This is interesting...


CrackerJackAg
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AG
[Personal attacks are out of bounds -- Staff]
AustinAg2K
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When did 130k new jobs become a good number? We used to get 200-300k new jobs per month.
WinTheWholeDamnThing
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Do these numbers include visa holders or is it American citizens?
aggie93
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AG
infinity ag said:

aggie93 said:

AI and Robotics are part of this, getting rid of government jobs is part of this, and cracking down on illegals is part of this. That doesn't even get into how flawed the jobs numbers are to begin with. Doesn't mean that the job market is good or bad it's just very hard to read.


AI is thrown around but no company has told us how they are using the new AI tech which needs them to cut jobs. They do big talk and then hire in India. Yes, the same companies who fired people for not being able to return to office (after being hired remotely). Their jobs are done remotely in India.

So I don't buy that AI is replacing any jobs. A very very small percent sure, as it is a tool for a human. A screwdriver cannot replace a carpenter.

Have you looked at what has happened in Amazon warehouses? It's a robot farm. Same thing is happening across all kinds of manufacturing and warehousing. Waymo and Tesla are going to take out Uber in the next couple of years, seeing the Tesla driverless taxis in Downtown Austin for less than half the cost and you don't have to tip is a no brainer. Companies need fewer programmers to do more. That's why you see GDP and productivity starting to take off and employment is only going up modestly, especially in combination with the decrease in government jobs and illegal immigration enforcement. We now have fewer Federal employees than at any time since the 1960s and that has gone from the highest amount since the end of the Cold War when we reduced the military (not counting temporary census workers). It's dropping like a rock as well, we aren't close to done.

My company has virtually shut down all H-1B hiring and previously that was a huge percentage and we aren't offshoring. We are struggling to find talent though.

There are many things going on simultaneously that are impacting the numbers for good and bad and that's without looking at how flawed the way we do employment numbers is to begin with. The biggest thing that makes no sense to me is your railing against Trump of all people on H-1s. I've been recruiting for over 30 years and the shift in the last year against H-1s is more dramatic than anything I have ever seen by a factor of 10 and it's all coming from Trump's policies.

These things don't turn on a dime in terms of statistics but make no mistake there is big movement. It's kind of like how Chinese exports to the US have dropped off the table to the level of when China joined the WTO and falling. There are some dramatic shifts happening in the economy that are mostly very positive but it's a reset from what we have known for the last several decades. You can't look at things through the same lens as before or else you won't see what is happening.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
MelvinUdall
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This! Not all sectors are the same when it comes to hiring and employment and yes LinkedIn is certainly showing those that are looking…in my field I am constantly getting of positions that are available in my area, 2 to 3 times per day.
YouBet
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AG
AustinAg2K said:

When did 130k new jobs become a good number? We used to get 200-300k new jobs per month.


See Logos post. 200-300k may be an outlier now due to various reasons already shared.
Old McDonald
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nortex97 said:

Trump is rarely credited with his economic stewardship but it seems to be producing positive results, though the Biden(*) bar was of course set incredibly low.
4.3% unemployment is fine, but that's higher than any point between January 2022 (covid recovery) and the end of Biden's term
flown-the-coop
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AG
infinity ag said:

backintexas2013 said:

Learn not to code


I guess we just listen to the Boomers and do HVAC and plumbing.

You would work less and make more than in tech.

And it's not boomers. I am 48 and tell every person looking for opportunities to get into the skilled trades.

But some folks must have their raised floors, 3 monitors, coffee bar, casual Friday's, Monday staff meetings and a paycheck coming from the mothership to feel like they are part of society.

What's wrong with getting your hands dirty?
infinity ag
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backintexas2013 said:

It was a joke but I honestly don't care as long as people are sucking government benefits.


OK.

Sucking govt benefits is one issue, I agree with you on that.

But I am concerned about fake numbers put our about the job market. We are NOT out of the woods.
infinity ag
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e=mc2 said:

infinity ag said:

Sims said:

infinity ag said:

Sims said:

infinity ag said:

Ag87H2O said:

infinity ag said:

How is it that almost every jobs report is great, but people on Linkedin are still looking for jobs and many are about to become homeless?
The only way it is possible is if the Government is fudging numbers...

Or ... maybe the negative voices on Linkedin are just the loudest and don't represent a majority of the job seekers. People exaggerate. People are drama queens. People lie.


Or... maybe all good jobs are being shipped abroad..... or maybe the government is LYING to us just like Biden did.

Could you at least admit you are arguing from a biased position? You'll find a lot of concurrence with several of your opinions if you'll just drop the absolutism on others.

How many welders are you connected with on LinkedIn?


How many tech people are you connected with on Linkedin?

Isn't that exactly the point you're refusing to acknowledge? Your experience is anecdotal and not representative of the whole.


My point is the job market is BAD. Very BAD. And the data gives an opposite impression. As simple as that.

I can say the same about your experience too. Everyone's experience is anecdotal.

Linked In is a terrible source. It's full of libs. Like 80 percent. Of course they're miserable and probably FOS.


Who cares about libs or cons? That is a different issue. Focus man.
When corps are laying off in10s of 1000s, that affects all of us and our cities and towns.
We aren't accepting that the job market is bad and lying to cover up.
WinTheWholeDamnThing
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Yesterday said:

high paying jobs doesn't churn the economy. We need those 50-75k/year jobs to start cranking out positions. Those jobs buy cars, finance homes and go on yearly vacations. The middle class needs to grow!


LOL, 50-75k doesn't get you nearly that far in most major cities. That's poor and just enough to get by in many places. Double those numbers.
infinity ag
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aggie93 said:

infinity ag said:

aggie93 said:

AI and Robotics are part of this, getting rid of government jobs is part of this, and cracking down on illegals is part of this. That doesn't even get into how flawed the jobs numbers are to begin with. Doesn't mean that the job market is good or bad it's just very hard to read.


AI is thrown around but no company has told us how they are using the new AI tech which needs them to cut jobs. They do big talk and then hire in India. Yes, the same companies who fired people for not being able to return to office (after being hired remotely). Their jobs are done remotely in India.

So I don't buy that AI is replacing any jobs. A very very small percent sure, as it is a tool for a human. A screwdriver cannot replace a carpenter.

Have you looked at what has happened in Amazon warehouses? It's a robot farm. Same thing is happening across all kinds of manufacturing and warehousing. Waymo and Tesla are going to take out Uber in the next couple of years, seeing the Tesla driverless taxis in Downtown Austin for less than half the cost and you don't have to tip is a no brainer. Companies need fewer programmers to do more. That's why you see GDP and productivity starting to take off and employment is only going up modestly, especially in combination with the decrease in government jobs and illegal immigration enforcement. We now have fewer Federal employees than at any time since the 1960s and that has gone from the highest amount since the end of the Cold War when we reduced the military (not counting temporary census workers). It's dropping like a rock as well, we aren't close to done.

My company has virtually shut down all H-1B hiring and previously that was a huge percentage and we aren't offshoring. We are struggling to find talent though.

There are many things going on simultaneously that are impacting the numbers for good and bad and that's without looking at how flawed the way we do employment numbers is to begin with. The biggest thing that makes no sense to me is your railing against Trump of all people on H-1s. I've been recruiting for over 30 years and the shift in the last year against H-1s is more dramatic than anything I have ever seen by a factor of 10 and it's all coming from Trump's policies.

These things don't turn on a dime in terms of statistics but make no mistake there is big movement. It's kind of like how Chinese exports to the US have dropped off the table to the level of when China joined the WTO and falling. There are some dramatic shifts happening in the economy that are mostly very positive but it's a reset from what we have known for the last several decades. You can't look at things through the same lens as before or else you won't see what is happening.


Amazon is a pioneer in robotics for warehouses at a large scale. No doubt. But they have been leading for many years, the recent AI models have not much to do with it. Tell me one use case that GenAI has done other than chatbots or some kind of summarization of reports that Amazon has used to lay off 30000 people. If you tell me that, I would like to work on it and add it to my resume! :-)

H1B points, all good and I love hearing your perspective on it. I am just frustrated by the slowish speed of it but I guess Trump is going as fast as actually possible. However my worry is I hear H1Bs conspiring about using other kinds of visas like L1, EB1 etc to sneak in. What is Trump doing about that? Has he emasculated the H4 dependent visa? Why do people get OPT even now? H1B moves are great but that solves a small problem, the looting is far more than that.

I want to clarify that I am with Trump on this, I want him to do more, and I am also a 3 time Trump voter. My concern is what if the Dems win in 3 years, all the gains will be gone and we will be back to Indian invasions.

Things are looking up and I myself have been getting many more calls compared to last year. I'm talking to 7 companies right now at the same time. Let's see if anything works out or I am just a US citizen checkbox to show to USDOL before they renew an existing H1B.
infinity ag
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WinTheWholeDamnThing said:

Yesterday said:

high paying jobs doesn't churn the economy. We need those 50-75k/year jobs to start cranking out positions. Those jobs buy cars, finance homes and go on yearly vacations. The middle class needs to grow!


LOL, 50-75k doesn't get you nearly that far in most major cities. That's poor and just enough to get by in many places. Double those numbers.


I told you, the Boomers here live in 1985 when Marty McFly was trying to get back to 1955.,
WinTheWholeDamnThing
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Honestly, it blows my mind how out of touch some older folks are with what it actually takes to live today. Saying "we need more $50-75k jobs" is kind of laughable-you'd barely cover rent, a used car, and bills at that. A new car easily runs $30-40k, buying a house in a decent neighborhood basically needs dual six-figure incomes, and even taking a simple vacation feels like a luxury. Life just isn't that cheap anymore, and a lot of people don't seem to realize it.
Yesterday
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AG
Aggie_2463 said:

Yesterday said:

high paying jobs doesn't churn the economy. We need those 50-75k/year jobs to start cranking out positions. Those jobs buy cars, finance homes and go on yearly vacations. The middle class needs to grow!


50-75k people can't even afford a home, a car and go on vacations these days.




Yes they can. I know because I employed numerous families in the 100-150k range as a family.

I didn't say $50-75 households. I said jobs. And the national average for middle income is $55-150k depending on where you live.

A household making 100k is very much middle class.
infinity ag
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WinTheWholeDamnThing said:

Honestly, it blows my mind how out of touch some older folks are with what it actually takes to live today. Saying "we need more $50-75k jobs" is kind of laughable-you'd barely cover rent, a used car, and bills at that. A new car easily runs $30-40k, buying a house in a decent neighborhood basically needs dual six-figure incomes, and even taking a simple vacation feels like a luxury. Life just isn't that cheap anymore, and a lot of people don't seem to realize it.



Remember, so many of the same Boomers are running our biggest companies. JPMorgan and Apple are among them.

I don't think they are actually that dumb. They are just ensuring that everyone else stays clueless so they can make money from this. They are all investors as this point of their lives and want this grift to continue for a few more decades before they are gone (after that, who gives an F).

The same Boomers piously prescribe that Americans become plumbers and electricians making 100k while foreigner Indians many with fake degrees make 300k - 500k with tech jobs.

Here's poor Steve the landscaper working manual jobs for all his life with no retirement, while Rajesh the IT VP who got in through Infosys/Wipto/Tata pipeline, enjoying his retirement traveling the world.

Yesterday
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AG
WinTheWholeDamnThing said:

Honestly, it blows my mind how out of touch some older folks are with what it actually takes to live today. Saying "we need more $50-75k jobs" is kind of laughable-you'd barely cover rent, a used car, and bills at that. A new car easily runs $30-40k, buying a house in a decent neighborhood basically needs dual six-figure incomes, and even taking a simple vacation feels like a luxury. Life just isn't that cheap anymore, and a lot of people don't seem to realize it.



This is completely false. It's clear many of you think you need to live with the Joneses in order to not be poor. 75k a year is by no means poor and certainly above the middle class threshold.
 
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