Microsoft AI CEO: Most white-collar jobs to be replaced by AI in 12 months

10,621 Views | 186 Replies | Last: 1 mo ago by HowdyTexasAggies
GCRanger
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AG
We are starting to work on Copilot prompts to build PowerPlatform products, reports to replace manual workflows done in spreadsheets or SharePoint lists. It's pretty good at the base use cases and will create schema for Dataverse, PowerApp tool, PBI report at basic levels, generate scripts to do automation, etc. Devs still have to check and update, some reworking, build the fringe cases, etc. We are still learning how to use Copilot in most effective way. It can probably do a lot more.

Just got out of a call talking about how it will let us pump out more usable tools more quickly but not replacing jobs.... Yet.
chris1515
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I was about to make a joke about how Copilot will NOT be the tool any of us have to fear…and then here you are actually using it! Maybe I need to give it another try.
SmackDaddy
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Read that tweet I posted earlier. AI is getting exponentially better.

I don't know where the productivity gains end but there isn't an executive I've spoken to in 6 months that believes the standard 40 hour work week will still be the norm in 5 years. We're going to have more free time (and mental problems).

The entire economy is likely to be reshaped as industries are transformed. Technology has always created more jobs, this time may be different.
infinity ag
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SmackDaddy said:

Read that tweet I posted earlier. AI is getting exponentially better.

I don't know where the productivity gains end but there isn't an executive I've spoken to in 6 months that believes the standard 40 hour work week will still be the norm in 5 years. We're going to have more free time (and mental problems).

The entire economy is likely to be reshaped as industries are transformed. Technology has always created more jobs, this time may be different.


"executive" hahahahahah

Those dunderheads just can't wait to press the button to lay people off.
javajaws
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SmackDaddy said:

Read that tweet I posted earlier. AI is getting exponentially better.

I don't know where the productivity gains end but there isn't an executive I've spoken to in 6 months that believes the standard 40 hour work week will still be the norm in 5 years. We're going to have more free time (and mental problems).

The entire economy is likely to be reshaped as industries are transformed. Technology has always created more jobs, this time may be different.

I've always stated that disruptive technological innovations cause job losses proportional to both the magnitude of the change as well as the RATE of change introduced by such technology (in the short term). In the long term, almost all innovation results in a net gain over time.

But the problem is always that rate of change. When it happens too fast people don't have time to retrain or switch careers. The result is an increase in unemployment. The faster and more disruptive the tech, the more unemployment created.

But in the long term almost all technologies open up new avenues for making money. The question though is how long will the chaos last and can our economy survive it?

At least in this case though, AI is a technology that can help people get new jobs WITHOUT much retraining. But it will still be disruptive. Expect a lot of job market churn over the next 5-10 years.
mode67ag
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We might start with serious antitrust action.

Concentration of economic, social and political power never works whether it is concentration in the government or in an oligarchy or, like today, a combination of the two.

That said, I know I'm leaving the next two generations a hell of a lot to work on. God speed!
bmks270
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The AI companies are losing money. If it's not profitable for the AI companies, it's a bubble that will pop, and not taking over white collar jobs.
javajaws
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bmks270 said:

The AI companies are losing money. If it's not profitable for the AI companies, it's a bubble that will pop, and not taking over white collar jobs.

Most startups/startup industries are the same. Its like selling drugs: "the first one is free..."

Compute costs will come down, while prices and value/benefits will go up. There will be profits eventually.
panhandlefarmer
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When the internet came out, some CEOs said it would replace all salespeople because the consumer could buy direct. Some companies did that successfully and some cratered and went back to salespeople in the field. We'll see, but some people want to do business with people and value relationships.
MaxPower
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Yukon Cornelius said:

So can we stop importing voters?
FIFY and no
deddog
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bmks270 said:

The AI companies are losing money. If it's not profitable for the AI companies, it's a bubble that will pop, and not taking over white collar jobs.

Common with disruptive tech.

Think AMZN and TSLA - they both lost money for a while. Look at them now.
AI will be no different. We just don't know the winners yet.
Ciboag96
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Learn to weld
Yukon Cornelius
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MaxPower said:

Yukon Cornelius said:

So can we stop importing voters?
FIFY and no


Well played
Tormentos
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For those who are actively using AI tools daily I think the writing is on the wall.

I run four small corporate entities in Houston. Within the past two weeks have used paid version of Chat GPT on the following, all of which resulted in us not engaging white white collar resources - we came up with new logos designs which in the past we would have hired marketing/graphic designer. Completed a small acquisition that was modeled after a prior acquisition, we bypassed any external legal review and relied on our experience and prompts into chat gpt on potential legal risks/edits to the agreement. Automated a purchasing/quote workflow that was going to low cost country overseas, now is managed locally by one person and an automated AI agent (this took less than a week to implement with zero in house coding expertise).

I consider myself a light user and am actively seeking opportunities to further deploy this within the entities I manage. My opinion is if you don't start doing this you will get quickly left behind, this is coming quicker than people realize.
doubledog
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IF by white collar job he means receptionist, customer phone service, executive assistants etc. then I would agree. AI is replacing them as I type.
Over_ed
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infinity ag said:

SmackDaddy said:

Read that tweet I posted earlier. AI is getting exponentially better.

I don't know where the productivity gains end but there isn't an executive I've spoken to in 6 months that believes the standard 40 hour work week will still be the norm in 5 years. We're going to have more free time (and mental problems).

The entire economy is likely to be reshaped as industries are transformed. Technology has always created more jobs, this time may be different.


"executive" hahahahahah

Those dunderheads just can't wait to press the button to lay people off.

Because your choice as CEO would be to not be efficient, automate what you can, and stay competitive with the others in your industry?

Which is why you will never be CEO.

It is a bit like H1Bs, imo. I obviously agree with you that they are a sham, but given the choice between H1Bs in the USA and offshoring it all, I would rather have the H1Bs here. You?
Buck Turgidson
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Normally when somebody with a name like that threatens to destroy the US economy, he winds up getting a home visit from a Hellfire missile.
TexasAggiesWin
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S
When will AI simply replace the Aggie football game threads?
Gaw617
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If this is true great. I will gladly retire from my job and live off stocks. If all the costs of labor are gone can you imagine the stock prices and deaths dividend payments?
Muy
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AG
Beniof is dead against this. Which means that Salesforce is actually well behind in the AI wars and he is desperate. CRM's stock tanking says a lot.

I work in tech and - as a former Salesforce guy - am hearing from companies who are realizing that Agentforce is all bs and they are simply being squeezed to buy more software when there are real AI technologies who can replace much of what SF thinks they can do.

It's both fun and ridiculous to watch.
lead
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I asked Gemini to "pretend that Trump announced the dissolution of the department of education. what would a texags forum 16 thread on this topic look like? please create a mock thread."

The result was satisfying. Maybe don't need F16 anymore.
TexasRebel
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AG
Maybe all, but one.
Mr.Milkshake
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If you haven't worked with LLMs in a CLI and orchestrated agents, you really don't know what you're talking about.

Massive change is already here. Many will be left behind, and tons of jobs that exist right now for humans wont be needed. Coding cost is a race to zero now - most dev teams will be replaced by product and one senior eng to orchestrate
YouBet
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Muy said:

Beniof is dead against this. Which means that Salesforce is actually well behind in the AI wars and he is desperate. CRM's stock tanking says a lot.

I work in tech and - as a former Salesforce guy - am hearing from companies who are realizing that Agentforce is all bs and they are simply being squeezed to buy more software when there are real AI technologies who can replace much of what SF thinks they can do.

It's both fun and ridiculous to watch.


This has been a topic of conversation on CNBC the last two weeks. CRM is f'ed is the general consensus.
Ranger26
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That's the downside to internet content algorithms. If you're looking at funny dogs it's great, but if it's something that bothers a person they get a constant feed that keeps them in a bad mindset. I think that is a big reason why people are so unhappy and come on this site or others and lose control.
Muy
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YouBet said:

Muy said:

Beniof is dead against this. Which means that Salesforce is actually well behind in the AI wars and he is desperate. CRM's stock tanking says a lot.

I work in tech and - as a former Salesforce guy - am hearing from companies who are realizing that Agentforce is all bs and they are simply being squeezed to buy more software when there are real AI technologies who can replace much of what SF thinks they can do.

It's both fun and ridiculous to watch.


This has been a topic of conversation on CNBC the last two weeks. CRM is f'ed is the general consensus.


Have you seen the latest on SF employees demanding that Beniof come out against ICE? They are digging their own grave.
JFABNRGR
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AxelFoley85 said:

If one person could do it, it would be Elon.


Elon is doing it and says massive changes happening extremely fast. 30-36 months life will look very different. I think he said about 50% of all legal and medical paid personnel will be gone.

If your not listening to him and a few others and taking action on their wisdom you are going to be left behind.

“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
TexasRebel
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Didn't he sell a bunch of "self driving" cars 15 years ago that still don't.
JFABNRGR
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TexasRebel said:

Didn't he sell a bunch of "self driving" cars 15 years ago that still don't.


And he was the pioneer.

Yes. A handful of companies are running autonomous trucking in real freight operations, and several beverage bottlers have tested or are using it in pilots.[1][2][3]

## Who is actually running autonomous trucks now

- **Aurora Innovation** is deploying driverless Class 8 trucks on longhaul "sun belt" routes, with dozens of trucks today and plans for 200+ by the end of 2026.[4][5][6][7][8][9]
- **Gatik** runs fully driverless box trucks (no safety driver) on fixed middlemile routes up to about 400 miles, including in Texas and Arizona, doing 24/7 freight-only operations.[9][1]
- Other notable autonomous trucking tech players include **TuSimple**, **Embark**, and others that license their stack to fleets and shippers rather than operating all trucks themselves.[10][11][12]

## Beverage and bottling use cases

- **AnheuserBusch InBev (AB InBev)**
- 2016: Used Uber/Otto's selfdriving kit for what was billed as the first commercial driverless beer haul, moving 2,000 cases of Budweiser ~120 miles in Colorado.[3][13]
- Has since worked with autonomous truck developer **Embark** to test selfdriving trucks in its freight network.[12][3]

- **CocaCola (European bottler)**
- CocaCola European Partners in Sweden has run a commercial pilot using **Einride**'s autonomous electric truck to shuttle goods between its warehouse and a major food retailer's warehouse.[2]

- **AB InBev and electric/autonomous Semis**
- AB InBev has ordered Tesla Semis, which are expected to have advanced driverassist and autonomous capabilities for brewerytowholesaler runs in the 150200mile band.[14][3]

## How far along it really is

- Longhaul highway lanes (terminal to terminal, or hub to hub) are where autonomous trucking is closest to being "production," especially in the southern states with favorable weather and regulations.[5][6][7][1][4][9]
- Direct store delivery for beverages (narrow streets, stairs, handtrucking into cstores) is still humandriven; autonomy is mainly being tested on **linehaul and middlemile** legs between plants, warehouses, and large DCs.[1][2][3]

If you tell me which bottler or region you care about (e.g., Coke/Pepsi/AB InBev in Texas vs West Coast), I can look for any live routes or pilots in that specific footprint.

Sources
[1] Autonomous trucking company goes from demo to deployment https://landline.media/autonomous-trucking-company-goes-from-demo-to-deployment/
[2] Coca-Cola test-drives Einride's autonomous truck in Sweden https://www.freightwaves.com/news/coca-cola-test-drives-einrides-autonomous-truck-in-sweden
[3] The road ahead for autonomous delivery trucks | Beverage Industry https://www.bevindustry.com/articles/96135-the-road-ahead-for-autonomous-delivery-trucks
[4] Aurora ready to roll out driverless trucks in Phoenix https://www.bizjournals.com/phoenix/news/2026/02/12/aurora-completely-driverless-trucks.html
[5] Aurora expands autonomous trucking across Sun Belt https://www.automotiveworld.com/news/aurora-expands-autonomous-trucking-across-sun-belt/
[6] Aurora's driverless trucks can now travel farther distances faster than human drivers https://techcrunch.com/2026/02/12/auroras-driverless-trucks-can-now-travel-farther-distances-faster-than-human-drivers/
[7] Aurora Triples Driverless Network to 10 Routes and Prepares to ... https://ir.aurora.tech/news-events/press-releases/detail/132/aurora-triples-driverless-network-to-10-routes-and-prepares-to-expand-across-u-s-sun-belt
[8] Amazon, Aumovio Team Up to Boost Autonomous Truck Deployment https://www.ttnews.com/articles/amazon-aumovio-autonomous
[9] Regulatory uncertainty slows ZEVs, pushing OEMs toward autonomy https://www.globalfleet.com/en/fleet-strategy/global/features/regulatory-uncertainty-slows-zevs-pushing-oems-toward-autonomy
[10] 12 Best Autonomous Truck Startups to Watch in 2026 - Seedtable https://www.seedtable.com/best-autonomous-truck-startups
[11] Top 100 Autonomous Trucking Companies in 2026 | ensun https://ensun.io/search/autonomous-trucking
[12] AB InBev, Werner Enterprises to test Embark autonomous trucks https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/08/ab-inbev-werner-enterprises-to-test-embark-autonomous-trucks.html
[13] This Bud's For The Robot: Otto, Anheuser-Busch Claim First ... - Forbes https://www.forbes.com/sites/alanohnsman/2016/10/25/this-buds-for-the-robot-otto-anheuser-busch-claim-first-automated-truck-shipment/
[14] Despite pushback from drivers, beer giant AB InBev moves forward ... https://thecounter.org/ab-inbev-orders-40-tesla-semis-future-of-truck-drivers/
[15] Analysts Hit the Gas on These 2 Autonomous Trucking Stocks https://finance.yahoo.com/news/next-gen-trucking-gains-speed-110000872.html
“You can resolve to live your life with integrity. Let your credo be this: Let the lie come into the world, let it even triumph. But not through me.”
- Alexander Solzhenitsyn
SmackDaddy
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Mr.Milkshake said:

If you haven't worked with LLMs in a CLI and orchestrated agents, you really don't know what you're talking about.

Massive change is already here. Many will be left behind, and tons of jobs that exist right now for humans wont be needed. Coding cost is a race to zero now - most dev teams will be replaced by product and one senior eng to orchestrate


Bingo.

Tonight I asked the older Claude model to use a pdf of a financial retirement plan I uploaded and create an excel spreadsheet of the model. Perfect file in about 3 minutes. No formula errors.

Make it look nicer. No problem. Give me graphs and charts. Done.

Imagine what this will do to India.
Aggie Infantry
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I've said this on several occasions: Texas (and the U.S.) needs to restart the VoTech HS. Mechanic, HVAC tech, plumber, electrician, etc... all make good money and cannot be done via AI (until the robots are developed).
When the truth comes out, do not ask me how I knew.
Ask yourself why you did not.
ts5641
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AI is the end of us. Why do we invent **** we know is bad?
ts5641
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JobSecurity said:

Whattt a CEO thinks his company's product will be revolutionary and life changing?

Why make such an inflammatory statement though?
Rocky Rider
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infinity ag said:

Rocky Rider said:

Question for those that know how AI code gen works. How do you describe the requirements to AI? Prose, Q&A, form fill-in, mental telepathy :-), …


While designing software, people are generally good at doing the usual cases, but trip up on the edge cases. Those require smarts to anticipate and handle in the code.

Same with AI-written code. You can do the usual cases but the edge cases are going to be tough to figure out and even harder to update when conditions change. If you lose control of your code, it will change and refactor EVERYTHING and could eff up whatever was already working. I work a lot with custom spreadsheets for my options trading work and I have had Claude create formulas for me. Works well. However if I decide to change the logic a bit, it is a nightmare as it redoes the entire thing in a different way and in some cases breaks what was working. You have to describe what you want very very accurately in prose and make sure the AI writes the code according to what you want.


Thanks. The continual refactoring could be an integration and test nightmare. There are a lot of financial and mission systems which are very carefully changed and thoroughly tested before they are used; literally thousands of cases. Imagine if you're responsible for software running a nuclear power plant, or flying a plane, or investing other people's money and the AI engine is constantly'improving' (possibly breaking) the code base.

Elon and the other AI deep thinkers don't spend much time on this topic. It's as if they assume the AI will be smart enough to avoid IT systems development issues that man has resolved for 70+ years.

Kozmozag
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Well it should be able to gut the governmental work force. A huge downside is going to be the huge slip of human knowledge. Mass humanity is goung to be much dumber.
 
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