For what it's worth, I just got through eating a plate of pulled pork and Texas Toast. It was really good.

Quote:

---

Food was really good, especially the ribs, but it has gotten too expensive for me. As much as I like really good BBQ, I think it is pricing a lot of people out of the market.

The problem is if you get it by the pound you don't know what the total is as they are throwing things on the plate.
You then get surprised when everything is totaled up.

---

Haven't been there, but few things are more irritating than steakhouse pricing for hipster/slacker counter top service at a "cool" place. Market/weight price for the "protein," different prices for each custom hand-crafted side of gouda cilantro mac or whatever.

I'm waiting for some Trevor to add direct eye-contact with the cashier as a premium add-on. Listed on the chalkboard menu, of course.

I got in line for a side in MAY.
Up$350.
Biggest jump I've seen.

before processing.

The democrats would raise the minimum wage, raise taxes, raise energy costs, further increase healthcare costs, and tax methane emissions from cows if they could.

Chopped brisket sandwiches would be $36. Pickles $2 extra.

eric76 said:

---

For what it's worth, I just got through eating a plate of pulled pork and Texas Toast. It was really good.

---

LoL

Gaeilge said:

---

Sid had run his course. I'm voting for Sheets

---

Sid has always been about what's best and can generate the most publicity for Sid. I'm with you.

Like a lot of things me and my smoker are as good out better at home for 20% of the price. We don't go out for steak ever anymore and bbq isn't far behind.

ToddyHill said:

---

People need to take an Economics 101 course and focus on Supply & Demand.

Today's cattle herd is the lowest it's been since the 1950's. (that means Supply is low).

The price of beef is high because there are plenty of people who eat beef and have the disposable income to pay the price at its current levels (Demand is high).

Until demand falls off, or supply increases, prices won't decline. It's really that simple.

---

Aggie friend of mine who ranches around Alpine told me about a year ago that the number of cattle in Texas now is the lowest it has been since the civil war. This was about the time he shipped all of his cattle because of the really bad drought in the Trans Pecos area the last several years.

Burrus86 said:

---

Mexican cattle are quarantined from entering into the United States because of screw worms. As a 5th generation rancher, I'm enjoying the higher beef prices domestically. As someone who enjoys cooking BBQ, beef prices are insanely high.its a double-edged sword in my world.

If you want to destroy the American beef market, allow the screw worm epidemic into the United States. Most Mom and Pop ranchers are not equipped to deal with it. Screw worms basically are fly larvae that eat the animal from the inside out, including deer and other wildlife. Until we get the screw worm issue resolved in Mexico, the border needs to stay closed. I have not read Sid Miller's recommendations, but we don't need to infect the United States supply of beef right now.

Aside from the fact that many BBQ joints are overly priced, the current beef market is ridiculous.

---

I know of one that has gone up in price, but not a huge amount. For their all you can eat buffet at Hunny's in Guymon, Oklahoma, it had been about $16 per person for quite a while. I think it is now $18 per person.

When I was a kid I had a great aunt and uncle who ranched outside Ft Davis. I spent summers with them while my mother was getting her teaching certificate from Sul Ross. I remember planes flying over their ranch and dropping boxes of sterile flies to stop the screwworm epidemic. This was the early 1960s.

That was so long ago that lots of ranchers now have never had to deal with screwworms.

https://www.borderreport.com/news/only-3-active-screw-worm-cases-remain-in-northern-mexico-1-is-240-miles-from-texas/

A branch of Mexico's Agricultural Department is reporting that only three active cases remain in Northern Mexico in connection to a New World screwworm outbreak in that country that threatens the cattle industry on both sides of the border.

Both the U.S. and Mexican governments have invested millions into a lab in southern Mexico that is producing the sterile flies. The Unites States is building a multi-million dollar facility in Edinburg, Texas, which is near the border.
A similar eradication method was used in the mid 1900s that eventually drove the screwworm as far south as Panama.

Not sure I trust the Mexican government reporting about anything. And I think that info would be impossible to confirm.

The Dept. of Ag has an old airfield down in the RGV where they are sterilyzing flies and boxing them up for distribution. Don't know if that place is up and running yet though.

I've had the old timers tell me that ranch horses evolved into roping horses during the 50s/60s because that was the only way to doctor an infected cow or calf in the pasture.

We are one of the few countries that finish cattle on grain, which produces the flavor, texture, and marbling we've come to expect in Prime, Choice, and Select cuts of beef. I am of the opinion the only beef category that would be affected by increasing imports (Australia as an example), would be ground products.

Regarding Mexico, before the ban, Sukarne (the largest packer in that country), supplied their sub-primals to a local, discount grocery chain in this area of Tennessee. Product (NY Strips), looked great (bright cherry red), but no marbling, no flavor, and tough…even after Jacarding (i.e. needle tenderization).

Long story short, until cattle raisers begin to increase their herds, there won't be any supply increases for two to three years. It's hard to convince someone to hold that female back as a replacement cow when prices are so high.

And lots of people are retiring / dying and the heirs are sending every last head to the barn

There hasn't been enough profit in a cow calf operation to pay the bills unless you are running several hundred mommas on 1000+ acres

The only thing can be done given the screw worm is import lots of ground meat but that can only help on the margins

This may have been true a couple of years ago, but if you can't make money raising cattle right now, you should sell out and lease your land to someone who knows what they're doing.

Got a Natty! said:

---

Not sure I trust the Mexican government reporting about anything. And I think that info would be impossible to confirm.

The Dept. of Ag has an old airfield down in the RGV where they are sterilyzing flies and boxing them up for distribution. Don't know if that place is up and running yet though.

---

I agree, they are lying for sure

Yes if you have a fully paid for herd that has been a negative cash flow machine for 15 out of the last 20 years
The heirs remember how unprofitable it was and consider that to be the norm

Pretty sure lease prices are in the toilet given the low number of cattle are in the state. A couple of years ago cattle prices were better but hay diesel and everything else pretty much made 2024 less profitable

ToddyHill said:

---

Long story short, until cattle raisers begin to increase their herds, there won't be any supply increases for two to three years. It's hard to convince someone to hold that female back as a replacement cow when prices are so high.

---

I have read it could take 2 to 3 years?

Ranchers can only increase their hard by not selling heifers into the feedlot or going out and buying somebody else's really expensive heifer
It doesn't come down anytime soon which is too bad because If I had another 20 Bull calves or yearling heifers I could make huge money selling them

shiftyandquick said:

---

In his press release he talks about the closing of BBQ restaurants, the rising price of beef, falling demand because of the price, and his plan for saving it. The plan is sparse on details, but I guess involves some kind of governmental intervention.

Also below a link from Texas Monthly, one of the golden lights of Texas journalism, about the closing of BBQ restaurants in Texas. Seems to be part of a larger trend of people cutting back discretionary spending in this greatest economy of all time, as some say.

Quote:

---

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller today issued an urgent call to action to protect one of the state's most cherished cultural and economic traditions: Texas Barbeque. A troubling wave of restaurant closures and operational challenges is sweeping across Texas, driven by record-high beef prices, a national cattle herd at its lowest level in 75 years, persistent inflationary pressures, and a resulting softening of consumer demand.

Industry observations and local reports highlight longtime smokehouses in small towns and major cities either shuttering doors or significantly scaling back, as pitmasters grapple with squeezed margins amid rising input costs and reduced customer traffic. At the same time, backyard pitmasters know all too well the squeeze high beef prices have put on families across the state.

"We must find ways to lower beef prices without harming ranchers' livelihoods, ensuring Texas barbecue remains vibrant and accessible," Miller continued. "This is why I'm calling for an America First beef policy to rebuild our national cattle herd. We need to better incentivize ranchers to retain breeding stock, further expand grazing access, strengthen market transparency, and implement Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling to restore consumer trust."

Texas barbecue is more than just food. It represents deep-rooted Texas heritage and pride, generations of family traditions, small businesses, and vital jobs in rural and urban communities statewide. As brisket plate prices have risen to luxury levels rather than remaining an affordable Saturday tradition, too many Texas families are being priced out of their local favorites.

"Rising costs and stifled demand driven by high prices for quality beef are putting Texas barbecue businesses and backyard pitmasters at risk," Commissioner Miller stated. "Many small-town staples are already on the brink, with closures mounting over the past year. If this is a sign of things to come, we must act now."

Commissioner Miller emphasized that the current low cattle inventory signals a potential demand collapse for quality beef if unaddressed. "We cannot ignore this warning sign," he said. "I vow to fight for the entire supply chain, from the ranch to the smoker to the dinner table and take decisive steps now to preserve Texas as the undisputed barbecue capital of the world."

---

https://www.texasmonthly.com/bbq/higher-costs-fewer-customers-killing-texas-bbq-joints/


https://texasagriculture.gov/News-Events/Article/10792/Commissioner-Sid-Miller-Calls-for-Urgent-Action-to-Save-Texas-Barbecue

---

ToddyHill said:

---

We are one of the few countries that finish cattle on grain, which produces the flavor, texture, and marbling we've come to expect in Prime, Choice, and Select cuts of beef. I am of the opinion the only beef category that would be affected by increasing imports (Australia as an example), would be ground products.

Regarding Mexico, before the ban, Sukarne (the largest packer in that country), supplied their sub-primals to a local, discount grocery chain in this area of Tennessee. Product (NY Strips), looked great (bright cherry red), but no marbling, no flavor, and tough…even after Jacarding (i.e. needle tenderization).

Long story short, until cattle raisers begin to increase their herds, there won't be any supply increases for two to three years. It's hard to convince someone to hold that female back as a replacement cow when prices are so high.

---

You are saying that grain fed beef has more flavor than grass fed beef?

First time I ever heard anyone say that.

eric76 said:

---

ToddyHill said:

---

We are one of the few countries that finish cattle on grain, which produces the flavor, texture, and marbling we've come to expect in Prime, Choice, and Select cuts of beef. I am of the opinion the only beef category that would be affected by increasing imports (Australia as an example), would be ground products.

Regarding Mexico, before the ban, Sukarne (the largest packer in that country), supplied their sub-primals to a local, discount grocery chain in this area of Tennessee. Product (NY Strips), looked great (bright cherry red), but no marbling, no flavor, and tough…even after Jacarding (i.e. needle tenderization).

Long story short, until cattle raisers begin to increase their herds, there won't be any supply increases for two to three years. It's hard to convince someone to hold that female back as a replacement cow when prices are so high.

---

You are saying that grain fed beef has more flavor than grass fed beef?

First time I ever heard anyone say that.

---

More fat/marbling (which is a kind of flavor).

shiftyandquick said:

---

More fat/marbling (which is a kind of flavor).

---

I remember in high school going to a well regarded steak house. Having grown up on grass fed beef, their steaks were so lacking in flavor that I didn't think their steaks were very good at all.

eric76 said:

---

shiftyandquick said:

---

More fat/marbling (which is a kind of flavor).

---

I remember in high school going to a well regarded steak house. Having grown up on grass fed beef, their steaks were so lacking in flavor that I didn't think their steaks were very good at all.

---

Cooking is my therapy. Fat == flavor.

I don't really care what he wants to do about beef, Sid won't get my vote because of his positions on deer breeding and wanting to take regulation of it away from TPWD and put it under Department of Ag. Nope.

shiftyandquick said:

---

In his press release he talks about the closing of BBQ restaurants, the rising price of beef, falling demand because of the price, and his plan for saving it. The plan is sparse on details, but I guess involves some kind of governmental intervention.

Also below a link from Texas Monthly, one of the golden lights of Texas journalism, about the closing of BBQ restaurants in Texas. Seems to be part of a larger trend of people cutting back discretionary spending in this greatest economy of all time, as some say.

Quote:

---

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller today issued an urgent call to action to protect one of the state's most cherished cultural and economic traditions: Texas Barbeque. A troubling wave of restaurant closures and operational challenges is sweeping across Texas, driven by record-high beef prices, a national cattle herd at its lowest level in 75 years, persistent inflationary pressures, and a resulting softening of consumer demand.

Industry observations and local reports highlight longtime smokehouses in small towns and major cities either shuttering doors or significantly scaling back, as pitmasters grapple with squeezed margins amid rising input costs and reduced customer traffic. At the same time, backyard pitmasters know all too well the squeeze high beef prices have put on families across the state.

"We must find ways to lower beef prices without harming ranchers' livelihoods, ensuring Texas barbecue remains vibrant and accessible," Miller continued. "This is why I'm calling for an America First beef policy to rebuild our national cattle herd. We need to better incentivize ranchers to retain breeding stock, further expand grazing access, strengthen market transparency, and implement Mandatory Country of Origin Labeling to restore consumer trust."

Texas barbecue is more than just food. It represents deep-rooted Texas heritage and pride, generations of family traditions, small businesses, and vital jobs in rural and urban communities statewide. As brisket plate prices have risen to luxury levels rather than remaining an affordable Saturday tradition, too many Texas families are being priced out of their local favorites.

"Rising costs and stifled demand driven by high prices for quality beef are putting Texas barbecue businesses and backyard pitmasters at risk," Commissioner Miller stated. "Many small-town staples are already on the brink, with closures mounting over the past year. If this is a sign of things to come, we must act now."

Commissioner Miller emphasized that the current low cattle inventory signals a potential demand collapse for quality beef if unaddressed. "We cannot ignore this warning sign," he said. "I vow to fight for the entire supply chain, from the ranch to the smoker to the dinner table and take decisive steps now to preserve Texas as the undisputed barbecue capital of the world."

---

https://www.texasmonthly.com/bbq/higher-costs-fewer-customers-killing-texas-bbq-joints/


https://texasagriculture.gov/News-Events/Article/10792/Commissioner-Sid-Miller-Calls-for-Urgent-Action-to-Save-Texas-Barbecue

---

"Also below a link from Texas Monthly, one of the golden lights of Texas journalism"

Damnit you need to warn me before typing stuff like that, spit my drink all over my computer!

Golden lights of texass journo?

Are you crazy?

That's the answer; lets get the government involved.

ToddyHill said:

---

People need to take an Economics 101 course and focus on Supply & Demand.

Today's cattle herd is the lowest it's been since the 1950's. (that means Supply is low).

The price of beef is high because there are plenty of people who eat beef and have the disposable income to pay the price at its current levels (Demand is high).

Until demand falls off, or supply increases, prices won't decline. It's really that simple.

---

What has led to the slow supply?

Primarily drought, I'd say.

I have already cut out all beef, except on high holly BBQ days.

Unfortunately, for me, BBQ was a weekly treat.
Now BBQ is like a good steak a once in a while meal (on special occasions).

shiftyandquick said:

---

I bought a traditional offset smoker about 1 year ago. New. 3/8" steel. So what I would call the real deal.

But I've been pretty disappointed with the price of brisket. I've smoked a lot of stuff, but I think I've only smoked 3 briskets. Because of the price.

And the only one that turned out great was the prime brisket (the most expensive). My theory now is that the quality of the brisket is the most important variable.

Those steak cuts are just outrageously expensive. I wonder who is buying them. There's going to be an entire generation of kids that doesn't grow up eating beef in any major quantity.

---

Sorry Ag but you appear clueless. Demand for beef is as strong as it's ever been. The prices are high and consumers are still enthusiastically purchasing the highest grades and most expensive cuts. I've smoked briskets for 50 years and I don't need USDA prime for the results to be excellent. I usually buy Choice but have no problem with slow smoking Select briskets to perfection. There's plenty marbling to Select and too much waste with Prime.

Miller has suggested a tax credit for heifer retention as an incentive to grow beef cattle herds.