Beef Prices, cattle and Trump-Biden Administrations

5,337 Views | 75 Replies | Last: 2 days ago by gonemaroon
nortex97
How long do you want to ignore this user?
AG
First, O'Keefe went to CattleCon and has some interesting insight;

Quote:

The O'Keefe Media Group went undercover at CattleCon and ranchers spilled the beans on how the "Big Four" control the beef industry.

"Our team spoke directly with ranchers and industry partners, documenting firsthand how the "Big Four" dominate the market and impact pricing," James O'Keefe said.

"Tyson, JBS, Cargill, and National Beef control most of the U.S. beef industry, raising serious questions about who really sets the price. So when you see higher prices at the grocery store, it's worth asking why," O'Keefe said.

"This may explain why your steak keeps costing more," he said.

"They [Big Four] are buying like all the companies in the United States… so they don't have competition," one insider said.
"They [Big Four] can knock you out of this industry in two seconds," another said.
"They [Big Four] closed all the markets all the markets are theirs in Brazil and now in the U.S."

He has more at his YouTube channel, fwiw.

But how did those 4 lock in this market status and why is the cattle herd so low today? The Biden administration, despite public proclamations to the contrary, made this situation happen quite deliberately.

Quote:

Between 2021 and 2025, the Biden administration implemented a suite of interlocking environmental-economic policies that resulted in cattle herd contractionsmost notably the "America the Beautiful" (3030) initiative, the Federal Plan for Equitable Long-Term Recovery and Resilience (ELTRR), the Bureau of Land Management's (BLM) Public Lands Rule, and nascent efforts to monetize natural capital through Natural Asset Companies (NACs) and voluntary carbon markets (VCMs).

By January 2025, the national herd had fallen to its lowest level since 1951, with beef prices at the retail counter exceeding $8.50/lb for choice cuts. Yet the lands sustaining cattle became more profitable as an asset on the federal balance sheet.

While framed as voluntary and incentive-based, between 2021 through 2025 these initiatives collectively reduced the productive land base available to U.S. cattle producers by an estimated 3.74.2 million acres, contributed to an 8.5% contraction in national cattle inventory (down to 87.2 million head), and played a measurable role in the 2025 protein supply shortages now evident in retail and food-service channels.

Three major policy vectors resulted in the reallocation of agricultural land use:
[ol]
  • Land retirement via 3030 and CRP expansion
  • Grazing permit attrition under the BLM Public Lands Rule
  • Economic displacement through carbon markets and natural capital valuation
  • [/ol]


    Quote:

    The net effect has resulted in about ~5% of Western rangelands being shifted to low-intensity or idled status for credit generation, while the cumulative impact on cattle inventory has resulted in skyrocketing beef prices.

    Given that the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals call for a 50% reduction in red meat consumption, it's likely that the Biden administration's environmental-economic agenda was intended to shrink the U.S. cattle herd. Regardless,its incentive structures, regulatory levers, and valuation frameworks created a powerful gravitational pull away from productive grazing.

    When layered atop drought and inflation, these policies converted marginal lands into financialized conservation assetsa shift that removed ~4 million acres from the beef supply chain and contributed to ~30% of the inventory decline observed between 2021 and 2025.

    More at the link. While Democrats at the state of the union and amid mid-terms want to blame Republicans for 'affordability' and prices this election cycle, this is just one example of how they studiously worked when in office to use the machinery of government, even without legislation, to spike prices for Americans as much as possible, under the guise of 'climate' protection, consolidating market power into a handful of organizations/lobbyist interests along the way. Of course the story goes back further, to Obama and beyond.

    Reversing these policies/rules has necessarily taken time (heaven forbid BLM reverse a rule quickly or a Biden-Obama judge would step in and say no, the earth will overheat/illegal etc), and hopefully the investigation finally leads to real anti-trust action as well.
    gonemaroon
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    So what resolves the cattle market long-term? I feel like it's very risky buying cattle at the all time highs to feed out. I am unsure how the cow calf operations work or how long they would take to recover in herd populations? I looks like we did recover after the mega droughts of the early 2010's.
    Teslag
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    Drought. The main reason is drought. Sometimes nature just wins.
    No Spin Ag
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    Teslag said:

    Drought. The main reason is drought. Sometimes nature just wins.


    Thankfully for people chicken and pigs aren't affected by droughts, because their prices have stayed pretty much the same while beef prices have jumped up.
    There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
    BQ_90
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    But those two groups are very susceptible to disease outbreaks. Just better hope that all don't happen at the same time
    Teslag
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    No Spin Ag said:

    Teslag said:

    Drought. The main reason is drought. Sometimes nature just wins.


    Thankfully for people chicken and pigs aren't affected by droughts, because their prices have stayed pretty much the same while beef prices have jumped up.


    Now do eggs during avian outbreaks
    CanyonAg77
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    Quote:

    Undercover at CattleCon: Ranchers & Insiders Expose How Tyson, JBS, Cargill, & National Beef Secretly Control America's Beef Market.


    Secretly?

    Worst kept secret of the last 50 years, if so.
    BQ_90
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    CanyonAg77 said:

    Quote:

    Undercover at CattleCon: Ranchers & Insiders Expose How Tyson, JBS, Cargill, & National Beef Secretly Control America's Beef Market.


    Secretly?

    Worst kept secret of the last 50 years, if so.

    Look at who posted that. Everything is a conspiracy because it's on YouTube
    chris1515
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    If the Biden administration hadn't paid a ton of money to ranchers to cover hauling hay into Texas to feed their cows during the drought the last few years, the problem would be way worse.
    No Spin Ag
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    Teslag said:

    No Spin Ag said:

    Teslag said:

    Drought. The main reason is drought. Sometimes nature just wins.


    Thankfully for people chicken and pigs aren't affected by droughts, because their prices have stayed pretty much the same while beef prices have jumped up.


    Now do eggs during avian outbreaks


    True, but those tend do last less than a year from when this go south until they come back.

    Beef has been priced higher for longer and doesn't look to come back down anytime soon, if ever.
    There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
    Psycho Bunny
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    If half of the crappy BBQ restaurants in Texas would close, beef prices would come down.
    Can't decide if I want to be cute and cuddly, or go blow some sh*t up.
    Decisions decisions
    No Spin Ag
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    Psycho Bunny said:

    If half of the crappy BBQ restaurants in Texas would close, beef prices would come down.


    Good point. And there's way too many of them that serve generic level food.
    There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
    CanyonAg77
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    chris1515 said:

    If the Biden administration hadn't paid a ton of money to ranchers to cover hauling hay into Texas to feed their cows during the drought the last few years, the problem would be way worse.


    What program was that, I must have missed it?

    Maybe because I was watching the Biden Administration pay $2,000,000,000 to "black farmers" who never saw a tractor in their life.
    SWCBonfire
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    CanyonAg77 said:

    chris1515 said:

    If the Biden administration hadn't paid a ton of money to ranchers to cover hauling hay into Texas to feed their cows during the drought the last few years, the problem would be way worse.


    What program was that, I must have missed it?

    Maybe because I was watching the Biden Administration pay $2,000,000,000 to "black farmers" who never saw a tractor in their life.


    No ***** Sign me up, too.
    HTownAg98
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    Teslag said:

    Drought. The main reason is drought. Sometimes nature just wins.

    No kidding. Anyone want to guess what caused the plunge from 2010-2014? If you said a historic drought, you'd be correct.
    BQ_90
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    I think FSA had a program to pay people to ship hay into Texas. I know most of the hay some of my Brazos county ranchers bought was garbage roadside weeds and twigs. I knew some that just burned it because it was so bad
    1981 Monte Carlo
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    Psycho Bunny said:

    If half of the crappy BBQ restaurants in Texas would close, beef prices would come down.

    The HEB near us in Bridgeland has a BBQ restaurant inside the main entrance and their fatty brisket has been freakin nails every single time. I have been blown away. I'd put it up there with Truth BBQ, I don't care what anyone says.
    HTownAg98
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    Psycho Bunny said:

    If half of the crappy BBQ restaurants in Texas would close, beef prices would come down.

    That won't make a dent in prices. What will cause prices to come down are two things: rain (and lots of it) and getting the screwworm situation under control.
    HTownAg98
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    1981 Monte Carlo said:

    Psycho Bunny said:

    If half of the crappy BBQ restaurants in Texas would close, beef prices would come down.

    The HEB near us in Bridgeland has a BBQ restaurant inside the main entrance and their fatty brisket has been freakin nails every single time. I have been blown away. I'd put it up there with Truth BBQ, I don't care what anyone says.

    It's shockingly good.
    1981 Monte Carlo
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    HTownAg98 said:

    1981 Monte Carlo said:

    Psycho Bunny said:

    If half of the crappy BBQ restaurants in Texas would close, beef prices would come down.

    The HEB near us in Bridgeland has a BBQ restaurant inside the main entrance and their fatty brisket has been freakin nails every single time. I have been blown away. I'd put it up there with Truth BBQ, I don't care what anyone says.

    It's shockingly good.

    Glad to hear I'm not alone. I've told several people and I get a "yeah ok buddy" type of reaction lol. Their loss.

    Their crawfish has been on point too both times we've tried...much better than the Tuckerton location from my experience.
    Psycho Bunny
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    1981 Monte Carlo said:

    HTownAg98 said:

    1981 Monte Carlo said:

    Psycho Bunny said:

    If half of the crappy BBQ restaurants in Texas would close, beef prices would come down.

    The HEB near us in Bridgeland has a BBQ restaurant inside the main entrance and their fatty brisket has been freakin nails every single time. I have been blown away. I'd put it up there with Truth BBQ, I don't care what anyone says.

    It's shockingly good.

    Glad to hear I'm not alone. I've told several people and I get a "yeah ok buddy" type of reaction lol. Their loss.

    Their crawfish has been on point too both times we've tried...much better than the Tuckerton location from my experience.

    Pappas BBQ chopped beef potato is 18 dollars. Chopped beef potato at HEB 9 dollars. Anyone who's smart, goes to HEB.
    Can't decide if I want to be cute and cuddly, or go blow some sh*t up.
    Decisions decisions
    84AGEC
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    Drought.
    Simple supply and demand. Econ 101.
    The fact that you just can't turn on a supply chain. It takes 2-3 years to increase production.
    And until we have ample grass and people start retaining heifers it won't change
    Or until demand drops off a cliff
    1981 Monte Carlo
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    Psycho Bunny said:

    1981 Monte Carlo said:

    HTownAg98 said:

    1981 Monte Carlo said:

    Psycho Bunny said:

    If half of the crappy BBQ restaurants in Texas would close, beef prices would come down.

    The HEB near us in Bridgeland has a BBQ restaurant inside the main entrance and their fatty brisket has been freakin nails every single time. I have been blown away. I'd put it up there with Truth BBQ, I don't care what anyone says.

    It's shockingly good.

    Glad to hear I'm not alone. I've told several people and I get a "yeah ok buddy" type of reaction lol. Their loss.

    Their crawfish has been on point too both times we've tried...much better than the Tuckerton location from my experience.

    Pappas BBQ chopped beef potato is 18 dollars. Chopped beef potato at HEB 9 dollars. Anyone who's smart, goes to HEB.

    Yep, I think half lb of fatty brisket is $14/lb...at my other local BBQ place, that wasn't as good, I think it was like $18 or 19.
    No Spin Ag
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    1981 Monte Carlo said:

    HTownAg98 said:

    1981 Monte Carlo said:

    Psycho Bunny said:

    If half of the crappy BBQ restaurants in Texas would close, beef prices would come down.

    The HEB near us in Bridgeland has a BBQ restaurant inside the main entrance and their fatty brisket has been freakin nails every single time. I have been blown away. I'd put it up there with Truth BBQ, I don't care what anyone says.

    It's shockingly good.

    Glad to hear I'm not alone. I've told several people and I get a "yeah ok buddy" type of reaction lol. Their loss.

    Their crawfish has been on point too both times we've tried...much better than the Tuckerton location from my experience.


    Dollar for dollar HEB BBQ and they're crawfish are as good as anyone.

    I actually prefer their BBQ to Evie Mae's and of course Rudy's in Lubbock.
    There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
    Psycho Bunny
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    No Spin Ag said:

    1981 Monte Carlo said:

    HTownAg98 said:

    1981 Monte Carlo said:

    Psycho Bunny said:

    If half of the crappy BBQ restaurants in Texas would close, beef prices would come down.

    The HEB near us in Bridgeland has a BBQ restaurant inside the main entrance and their fatty brisket has been freakin nails every single time. I have been blown away. I'd put it up there with Truth BBQ, I don't care what anyone says.

    It's shockingly good.

    Glad to hear I'm not alone. I've told several people and I get a "yeah ok buddy" type of reaction lol. Their loss.

    Their crawfish has been on point too both times we've tried...much better than the Tuckerton location from my experience.


    Dollar for dollar HEB BBQ and they're crawfish are as good as anyone.

    I actually prefer their BBQ to Evie Mae's and of course Rudy's in Lubbock.

    Between HEB BBQ prices and Costco's food court prices, one can feed a family on a budget.
    Can't decide if I want to be cute and cuddly, or go blow some sh*t up.
    Decisions decisions
    BadMoonRisin
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    I have both an HEB with attached True Texas BBQ and a Costco within 2 miles of my house so...yeah, you know where most of my $$$ is going every month.
    THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!
    gonemaroon
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    So if you are Trump do you import beef from Argentina to offset price?

    Price needs to be stable that is one thing that needs to occur.
    No Spin Ag
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    Psycho Bunny said:

    No Spin Ag said:

    1981 Monte Carlo said:

    HTownAg98 said:

    1981 Monte Carlo said:

    Psycho Bunny said:

    If half of the crappy BBQ restaurants in Texas would close, beef prices would come down.

    The HEB near us in Bridgeland has a BBQ restaurant inside the main entrance and their fatty brisket has been freakin nails every single time. I have been blown away. I'd put it up there with Truth BBQ, I don't care what anyone says.

    It's shockingly good.

    Glad to hear I'm not alone. I've told several people and I get a "yeah ok buddy" type of reaction lol. Their loss.

    Their crawfish has been on point too both times we've tried...much better than the Tuckerton location from my experience.


    Dollar for dollar HEB BBQ and they're crawfish are as good as anyone.

    I actually prefer their BBQ to Evie Mae's and of course Rudy's in Lubbock.

    Between HEB BBQ prices and Costco's food court prices, one can feed a family on a budget.


    Very true.
    There are in fact two things, science and opinion; the former begets knowledge, the later ignorance. Hippocrates
    BQ_90
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    gonemaroon said:

    So if you are Trump do you import beef from Argentina to offset price?

    Price needs to be stable that is one thing that needs to occur.

    Well is there excess supply to import? Are prices suppressed in Argentina or are they selling their beef to China or rest of the world
    nortex97
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    BQ_90 said:

    CanyonAg77 said:

    Quote:

    Undercover at CattleCon: Ranchers & Insiders Expose How Tyson, JBS, Cargill, & National Beef Secretly Control America's Beef Market.


    Secretly?

    Worst kept secret of the last 50 years, if so.

    Look at who posted that. Everything is a conspiracy because it's on YouTube

    Thank you for your attention to this matter.

    Before Trump was even sworn in many recognized what Biden had done. Cattlecon isn't a secret, of course, but the truth about 2021-2025 is largely unknown to the public I think.
    Quote:

    Third, there is the "cut-out margin." This insider term describes the gap between the low price packers pay ranchers for live cattle and the much higher price they collect for boxed beef. When production slows or plants go dark, that cut-out margin balloons. Ranchers get squeezed on the front end while consumers get gouged on the back end.

    Here's the good news for ranchers and consumers alike: President Trump has put Big Beef on notice that its anti-competitive behavior will no longer be tolerated. He has directed the Department of Justice to launch a full antitrust investigation into the nation's largest meat-packing companies for "illicit collusion, price-fixing, and price manipulation." Working with USDA, DOJ's Antitrust Division can now subpoena documents, compel testimony, and dig into capacity decisions and data-sharing to determine whether slaughter cuts and plant slowdowns crossed the line into criminal conspiracy.

    At the same time, the Trump administration is moving to break Big Beef's middle-man chokehold by rebuilding competition from the ground up. Through USDA's Meat and Poultry Processing Expansion Program and related initiatives, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins is helping finance smaller, decentralized processing plantsfacilities closer to ranchers and the local and regional markets they serve.

    The antitrust goal is simple: more plants, more bidders, more competition, and lower transportation and processing costs in every pound of beef.

    Going forward, the Trump administration will use every tool available from the antitrust laws to the Packers and Stockyards Act to stop abuse of market power. If the Big Four prove unwilling or unable to compete fairly, structural remedies up to and including breaking up Big Beef are squarely on the table.

    Biden and the Democrats left the American people with a beef-inflation mess that will be tough to tame. But Trump is on the job, fighting the inflation that Democrats caused. He is doing everything possible cracking down on Big Beef, empowering independent processors, and standing with America's ranchers and consumers to finally bring honest competition back to the beef case.

    Fortunately Aggie Brooke Rollins is working with partners (including DoJ) to undo the damage long term, but it is the height of hypocrisy for Democrats to lament 'affordability' of products like beef after what their team did (and would love to do again).
    nortex97
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    BQ_90 said:

    gonemaroon said:

    So if you are Trump do you import beef from Argentina to offset price?

    Price needs to be stable that is one thing that needs to occur.

    Well is there excess supply to import? Are prices suppressed in Argentina or are they selling their beef to China or rest of the world

    We've been importing for years (since Obama) and labeling it as American made if processed in one of the monopolized plants. Labeling is just another scam the left has used to harm smaller ranchers. But we also export more than we import, for a reason. Note the ranchers comments about the Brazilian family he does business with at the OP.

    The market is highly manipulated and distorted, by the government and monopoly alike.
    SunrayAg
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    It's not ever going to be fixed.

    Every time a building goes up, a lot gets paved, or a road gets built, land goes out of production that is never coming back. Throw in solar farms so the suburbanites can pretend they are getting green energy… land out of production forever. Throw in data centers so losers can have ai girlfriends… land out of production forever.

    The acres of agricultural land go down every year, and the mouths to feed go up every year.

    Now throw in generational inheritance. Great grandpa had 300 acres he ran cows on. Divided among his kids, who divided among their kids, who divided among their kids. Now everyone has 7 or 8 acres and wants to build a retirement cabin there. Not enough to run a herd.

    That is if they didn't sell out to the unscrupulous land developers who started sending offers the second grandpa passed away.

    My family has been running cattle for generations. I don't know that we have ever made money doing it. It's just what we do.

    Our cows are the descendants of my grandpa's cows. We change bulls every now and then, and sell some old cows and keep some young heifers every year.

    A few years ago my mom paid $150 a roll for hay hauled in from Mississippi. (We feed 5 rolls a week in the winter.) Not because of profit. Because she wanted to keep my dad's herd. Another drought year recently we started feeding hay in August. Several around us had to sell their whole herds at the bottom because their water dried up. At that point it doesn't matter how much hay you hauled in. You're done.

    How do you come back from that? Buy heifers at all time high prices, knowing that the point of growing herds is to drive the price down? You better just want to be in the cattle business at that point, because profit is going to be hard to find.
    BQ_90
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    She's working to run for some office when she's done. And my guess these packers will be the first ones she hits for money
    oklaunion
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    Eat More Lamb.
    aggiehawg
    How long do you want to ignore this user?
    AG
    oklaunion said:

    Eat More Lamb.

    Yuck, no thank you.
    Last Page
    Page 1 of 3
     
    ×
    subscribe Verify your student status
    See Subscription Benefits
    Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.