The tax nerd who bet his life savings against DOGE.

HTownAg98

Joined: Oct 11, 1999

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Guy takes out a bet on Kalshi that the federal government would spend more by year's end than it did in 2024, meaning DOGE wouldn't cut spending. You don't have to be an expert on government spending to know this would happen. Free link since it's behind a WSJ paywall.
https://archive.ph/zb3u7

Quote:
But Musk's boasts and his eager fans brought an unusual opportunity into the burgeoning U.S. prediction markets: People willing to bet that the world's richest man would transform and shrink the federal government.
Cole took the opposite position, one he didn't see as a gamble at all. If federal spending in each quarter of 2025 exceeded federal spending in the fourth quarter of 2024, he would win big.

[Edited to remove vulgarity -- Staff]

Edited by Staff

LMCane

Joined: Oct 26, 2021

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9:17a, 2/25/26

profit of more than $128,000, or 37%.

"There's a little bit of that feeling of vindication," Cole said.

Psychological boosts aside, this isn't the greatest moneymaking option ever.

Cole will incur capital-gains taxes on money he removed from investments to make the wager, and he missed some stock-market gains. He'll pay taxes on the winnings.

now if he had put all of that on PALANTIR three years ago...

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lb3

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10:43a, 2/25/26

AG

Are these prediction markets really capitalized to the point where you can just drop $500k into the market and not move the market so much that your ROI goes in the toilet?

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