Interesting tweet from the Bloomberg Chief Economist.
Vico is basically a data nerd shop started by a few ex-Meta/Google guys. They track digital activity across the web, social, marketing platforms, etc., and turn it into dashboards that show what's actually working (and what isn't).
They're popping up on Bloomberg right now, but they also run a free Substack.
Probably worth keeping an eye on as prediction markets come under greater scrutiny.
https://substack.com/@vicofuturemonitor/note/p-189052306?r=1q05vy&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
"Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by…"
— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough) February 28, 2026
With US and Israeli strikes now underway, three prediction sources are pricing the probability of regime change. One was ahead of the other two.
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🔵 Kalshi (human-traded, by Sep 1): Flat at ~48-50 all week. Spikes to 64 on the… pic.twitter.com/hQ0NJ3qRZS
Vico is basically a data nerd shop started by a few ex-Meta/Google guys. They track digital activity across the web, social, marketing platforms, etc., and turn it into dashboards that show what's actually working (and what isn't).
They're popping up on Bloomberg right now, but they also run a free Substack.
Probably worth keeping an eye on as prediction markets come under greater scrutiny.
https://substack.com/@vicofuturemonitor/note/p-189052306?r=1q05vy&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action