Whats Iran's strategy here

7,223 Views | 55 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by kb2001
jamey
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Attack everyone. How can that help their cause


Paradise Ag
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Same strategy as someone getting their ass kicked in a fight - swing wildly and hope you hit something that stops the carnage.

Not likely to work but then again, they don't have too many other options.
1939
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They don't have one, what is left of the current government know they are finished so they are just going out in a blaze of not glory.
Eliminatus
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Don't try to get into the heads of a literal death cult. Just stamp them out and leave them as a footnote in the annals of history.
G Martin 87
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Seems pretty obvious what their strategy is. They're trying to spread the pain to other countries in the hopes that someone will put pressure on Trump to call off the attack.
Secolobo
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It's like lighting a pack of those little Jupiter rockets. Take cover because they go everywhere.
GAC06
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I G Martin got it. Also their command and control must be severely degraded, with missile and drone units basically operating off of a contingency plan or just winging it.

On a side note, OP did you follow the guy whose tweet you included before this? It's strange to me that this supposed Australian "entrepreneur" influencer/twitter personality is suddenly getting repeatedly linked here on TexAgs. This particular tweet seems factual and just repackaging actual reports from actual news outlets but others from him have been just made up BS.
Ag In Ok
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Shows us that the mullahs are in charge. And they want to force the Day of Judgement.
jamey
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GAC06 said:

I G Martin got it. Also their command and control must be severely degraded, with missile and drone units basically operating off of a contingency plan or just winging it.

On a side note, OP did you follow the guy whose tweet you included before this? It's strange to me that this supposed Australian "entrepreneur" influencer/twitter personality is suddenly getting repeatedly linked here on TexAgs. This particular tweet seems factual and just repackaging actual reports from actual news outlets but others from him have been just made up BS.


Bill Ackman keeps re-tweeting him Ive noticed

I recognize Ackman because he's on finance shows. I don't follow regular FoxNews or CNN type news
aggiehawg
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My belief is that command and control for the Iranian regime (such as it was and not good then) is not directing much of anything right now. But the fanatics that are left in different places with some very local authority are just shooting at everything because they can.

Think about Japanese soldiers on small Pacific islands that continued to fight after WWII because they didn't know the war was over. That type of fanaticism. Also, they just are not trained well, being a General means some Mullah likes you for being a brownnoser, not for knowledge of military history nor strategy. Let's just say The Art of War has not been widely translated into Arabic. LOL.
Psycho Bunny
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Paradise Ag said:

Same strategy as someone getting their ass kicked in a fight - swing wildly and hope you hit something that stops the carnage.

Not likely to work but then again, they don't have too many other options.

Can't decide if I want to be cute and cuddly, or go blow some sh*t up.
Decisions decisions
Schrute Farms
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The strategy to remain in power is chaos (lack of predictability), stalling (hope we create an unforced error), and hope for outside influence.

The US casualties in Kuwait has already sparked mild outrage here. If they keep being unpredictable, something may fall in their favor.
Agador Spartacus
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Make this as big as possible and turn this into radical Islam's last stand?
jamey
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Agador Spartacus said:

Make this as big as possible and turn this into radical Islam's last stand?


Seems like more of an advertisement for why radical Islam cant be allowed to exist, much less have a nuclear weapon
Casual Cynic
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Iran will spread destruction and chaos and then say "see, you need to be nice to us so this won't happen."
Rapier108
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Hold out long enough until their allies in the US (Democrats and useful idiots Republicans like Massie and Paul) can force Trump to stop.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
Concerned Moderate Ag
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Yeah, misread the thread title, my bad guys, I'm a couple old fashioneds in. I don't have any guesses on Iran's strategy. Seems like to let everything loose before they all die.
pdc093
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Casual Cynic said:

Iran will spread destruction and chaos and then say "see, you need to be nice to us so this won't happen."


Which is the EXACT strategy of our own anti-American, Anti-Trump, anti-Constition LEFTISTS.

They're counting on ALL their chaos, destruction, and lawlessness eventually FORCING the rest of the Country to cave, and acquiesce.

They're sadly mistaken.
jamey
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Apparently Iran thought it would cause global backlash to save poor Iran.



fullback44
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Their strategy is to stir up a hornets nest and hope some of the hornets ask the US to stop.. the problem is when you stir the hornets up the come back after you. People like the Saudis are going to strike them back now. Iran better hope their main oil loading terminal isn't smashed to pieces by so one like the Saudis or someone else - that regime will be toast with very little money when no oil can be loaded onto ships
bonfarr
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fullback44
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bonfarr said:



Wow - talk about sticking it to the Mulaahs, duplicate what they designed first, add American starlink military grade technology to it, and boom you have something the Mulaahs and Russians can't have ! Then use it to take out Irans war machine. Brilliantly done ! Bravo Bravo

And yes, thanks Elon
74Ag1
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fullback44 said:

Their strategy is to stir up a hornets nest and hope some of the hornets ask the US to stop.. the problem is when you stir the hornets up the come back after you. People like the Saudis are going to strike them back now. Iran better hope their main oil loading terminal isn't smashed to pieces by so one like the Saudis or someone else - that regime will be toast with very little money when no oil can be loaded onto ships

Their main loading facility is Kharg Island
Cut it off and you stop 3+ million barrels of oil/products
I think President Trump wants to keep it open
Oil is already way up today and will spike even higher if they can't get their oil out
4
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G Martin 87 said:

Seems pretty obvious what their strategy is. They're trying to spread the pain to other countries in the hopes that someone will put pressure on Trump to call off the attack.

You give them too much credit.

They just want to see it all burn down, literally. They want to end the world.

That has quite specifically been their goal since assuming power in 1979, and they have said as much.

The Ayatollah is Jim Jones with borders and the authority to tax citizens, nothing more.
fullback44
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Yes I agree with you, we don't want to cut their oil production and drive up oil pricing. But we may need to to kill that regime economically. Gonna have to watch how this plays out. We don't want to start taking out oil facilities, we have plenty of oil targets ourselves
LMCane
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it is quite easy to see what the strategy is:

smash the Gulf Arabs so hard- that they cry to Uncle Sam to stop the war.
zephyr88
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Concerned Moderate Ag said:

Yeah, misread the thread title, my bad guys, I'm a couple old fashioneds in. I don't have any guesses on Iran's strategy. Seems like to let everything loose before they all die.

Yah, just like 'suicide by cop' when a perp runs at a cop wielding a knife and gets lit up with a full mag of 45s.

Iran even lobbed rockets at the UAE, and they're basically the Switzerland of the Arab nations.
FrioAg 00
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What they are really proving right now is how correct the policy has always been: never, ever let them get their hands on nukes.
91AggieLawyer
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Schrute Farms said:

The strategy to remain in power is chaos (lack of predictability), stalling (hope we create an unforced error), and hope for outside influence.


This thread is on Iran, not the democrats.
zephyr88
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FrioAg 00 said:

What they are really proving right now is how correct the policy has always been: never, ever let them get their hands on nukes.

Americans need to remember the enablers of Iran.

Obama. Clinton.
dustin999
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Peter Zeihan is a good guy to follow to understand what's actually going on
agent-maroon
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Quote:

The Ayatollah is WAS Jim Jones with borders and the authority to tax citizens, nothing more.

FIFY
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Bird Poo
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dustin999 said:

Peter Zeihan is a good guy to follow to understand what's actually going on


Don't trust him. He has TDS which clouds a lot of his thinking. He's also CIA and has an agenda.
aggie93
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Iran is about 3 layers deep already at basically every level of government because the others have been killed, this is in a very top down system. They are sending out some of their press messages by telegram. We have complete control over the sky and sea and can listen in on any comms.

The only strategy going on is some lower level commanders deciding to randomly shoot off rockets and others trying to figure out how to cut a deal or get the hell out.

I just don't see their current government lasting much longer honestly because they don't have leadership and anyone trying to meet and create leadership is going to be lucky to survive 24 hours. It seems like they are just finishing the destruction of any military assets and any leaders that could be a threat and then the Shah is going to tell people to rise up and take power with the assistance of basically every country in the region and the US.
"The most terrifying words in the English language are: I'm from the government and I'm here to help."

Ronald Reagan
Reginald Cousins
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bonfarr said:



Fascinating.

Quote:

On July 16, 2025, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth held up a drone at a Pentagon event. It had a delta wing, a pusher propeller, and a silhouette that anyone who had watched the war in Ukraine would recognize immediately. It was a copy of the Iranian Shahed-136, the kamikaze drone that Russia had fired by the thousands into Ukrainian cities, the weapon Iran distributed to Houthi proxies in Yemen, the airframe that humiliated Western air defense systems through sheer volume and cheapness. Except this one was American. Built by an Arizona startup called SpektreWorks from a captured Iranian airframe.

Seven months later, on February 28, 2026, CENTCOM confirmed that the Low-cost Unmanned Combat Attack System flew in combat for the first time during Operation Epic Fury. Against Iran. The country that designed the original.

CENTCOM's statement was direct: "Task Force Scorpion Strike, for the first time in history, is using one-way attack drones in combat during Operation Epic Fury. These low-cost drones, modeled after Iran's Shahed drones, are now delivering American-made retribution." Task Force Scorpion Strike was established in December 2025 with an explicit mandate. A US official told The War Zone the unit was created "to flip the script on Iran." On December 16, a LUCAS drone was test-launched from the Littoral Combat Ship USS Santa Barbara in the Persian Gulf. Ten weeks later, the script was flipped.

Here is the economics. A Tomahawk cruise missile costs approximately $2 million. LUCAS costs $35,000. For the price of a single Tomahawk, you can launch 57 LUCAS drones. A Shahed-136 in Russian production costs approximately $80,000 per unit at the Alabuga facility. The American reverse-engineered version costs less than half the Russian licensed copy of the Iranian original. SpektreWorks received a $30 million initial production contract. That buys 857 kamikaze drones for what the Navy spends maintaining a handful of Tomahawks.

But cost is not the real story. The original Shahed-136 navigates by pre-programmed GPS and inertial guidance. It flies to a fixed coordinate and detonates. It cannot be retargeted in flight. It cannot communicate with other drones. It cannot adapt. LUCAS integrates with the MUSIC mesh network, a multi-domain unmanned systems communications architecture that allows each drone to function simultaneously as a strike weapon and a communications relay node. Some units carry Starlink terminals, specifically the military Starshield variant, enabling beyond-line-of-sight satellite communications, real-time human oversight, and autonomous swarm coordination in GPS-denied and electronically jammed environments. The original Shahed is a flying bomb with a coordinate. The American version is a networked intelligence node that happens to explode.

Russian military commentators are already sounding alarms. The integration of Starlink with a mass-producible airframe represents a threat class that existing electronic warfare cannot reliably counter. You cannot jam a mesh network the same way you jam a GPS receiver. The drone that does not reach its target still relays targeting data for the drone behind it. Every unit the enemy shoots down costs the defender more in interceptor ammunition than the attacker spent building it. That is the Shahed math, the logic Iran invented and Russia perfected in Ukraine. The United States just applied it to the country that wrote the equation.

Seven months from Pentagon debut to combat deployment. For context, a traditional major defense acquisition program takes seven years to reach Milestone B. Iran spent a decade refining the Shahed-136.

The United States reverse-engineered it, improved it, networked it, and sent it home in under a year.



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