Susan Collins?

Thom Tillis?

Others?

I keep seeing Texas as the Dems ever present pipe dream but I just don't see it happening.

They need 4 to flip it. I keep seeing this doom/wish casting that its going happen and I'm just curious about the actual data at this point.

Collin's possibly. It's hard to gauge. No Trump on the ballot makes it a bit more unpredictable regarding who will turn out. Republican voters and get out the vote activity is typically more lazy and unfocused in non presidential elections.

One seat in Ohio is up for grabs. Husted was appointed to complete JD Vance's term and the dems are trying to resurrect Sherrod Brown.

Ohio and Alaska easily stay red. Ohio is basically a red state now.

Cook Political Report now has Ohio as a Toss Up and Nebraska as a Likely R.

If Gas prices are still hovering around $5 like DJT said would, kiss it bye bye.

We have 7 months to go. That's an eternity in politics. New issues, national prosperity or misery, and potential Roy Moore / Eric Swalwell oppo research can shift the balance quickly. Rs should hold Senate and lose 2-3 seats all else equal.

Well, we are almost at $40T in debt, going through an industrial revolution in AI that may displace double digit % of white collar workers, Medicare and SS that are about to get rocked by a wave of boomers, and an American Dream that seems inaccessible to most young people. Neither party seems equipped for to deal with any of this, and we desperately need a realignment away from the woke left and whatever Trump says right into a political party able to meet the moment.

For Rs to lose the senate Dems would have to sweep the following

Alaska, Ohio, Maine and North Carolina.

While holding New Hampshire, Michigan and Georgia

I give that about 10% chance of happening

Prediction Rs carry the senate 52 or 53 seats

Ag98and03 said:

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All the Rs need to be cleaned out. Spineless cowards that allow wholesale grifting, waring, and not holding Trump to account.

They have given up the power of Congress to an autocrat. They should all go.

The general 20 point shift D will be very interesting in Nov. To this date, I don't think Rs have flipped a single blue state in state or federal elections.

I hope we finally get sense back in Texas, but we are too busy trying to force 10 Commandments into classrooms, rather than worrying about affordability.

We have an entire generation of young adults who have no hope in the American dream. I'm not sure if they will get out and vote, but they are generally cynical about literally ever affording a house, making a living wage, etc.

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This is like the anon campaign to get democrat men not to vote to make women's votes more important.

Only vice versa. And dumber.

Malibu said:

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Well, we are almost at $40T in debt, going through an industrial revolution in AI that may displace double digit % of white collar workers, Medicare and SS that are about to get rocked by a wave of boomers, and an American Dream that seems inaccessible to most young people. Neither party seems equipped for to deal with any of this, and we desperately need a realignment away from the woke left and whatever Trump says right into a political party able to meet the moment.

---

Yep. A nation can ignore the basic laws of math, science, natural resources, science, economics, finance, basic human needs, and Mother Nature for awhile, even for a few decades, but if a nation does that long enough, eventually it will result in a reckoning.

Malibu said:

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We have 7 months to go. That's an eternity in politics. New issues, national prosperity or misery, and potential Roy Moore / Eric Swalwell oppo research can shift the balance quickly. Rs should hold Senate and lose 2-3 seats all else equal.

---

What's the old saying? It's the economy stupid.

Rapier108 said:

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North Carolina is a lost cause.

Ohio (Vivek is going to lose the governorship and damage the Republicans down ballot)
Alaska (Democrat has been consistently leading in the polls by 5+)
Maine (Collins is a survivor; really going to depend on who the Democrat nominee is)

Texas and Iowa are low probability, but not zero.

Nebraska will be a potential problem again because the Democrats aren't running a candidate. Instead they're backing "Independent" Dan Osborn again and he did fairly well in 2024. He's a leftist running as a "moderate."

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Nobody has mentioned that GA may flip back to Republican. Ossoff was slightly BEHIND Perdue, the Republican, but neither got the majority so they went to a runoff.

Ossoff won the runoff by a VERY small margin...

Ag with kids said:

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Rapier108 said:

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North Carolina is a lost cause.

Ohio (Vivek is going to lose the governorship and damage the Republicans down ballot)
Alaska (Democrat has been consistently leading in the polls by 5+)
Maine (Collins is a survivor; really going to depend on who the Democrat nominee is)

Texas and Iowa are low probability, but not zero.

Nebraska will be a potential problem again because the Democrats aren't running a candidate. Instead they're backing "Independent" Dan Osborn again and he did fairly well in 2024. He's a leftist running as a "moderate."

---

Nobody has mentioned that GA may flip back to Republican. Ossoff was slightly BEHIND Perdue, the Republican, but neither got the majority so they went to a runoff.

Ossoff won the runoff by a VERY small margin...

---

Currently ranked either D-Hold or Tossup.

jja79 said:

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Malibu said:

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We have 7 months to go. That's an eternity in politics. New issues, national prosperity or misery, and potential Roy Moore / Eric Swalwell oppo research can shift the balance quickly. Rs should hold Senate and lose 2-3 seats all else equal.

---

What's the old saying? It's the economy stupid.

---

Well, I agree, but...there are the 2 sayings that always end up being true...

They are:

1) All politics are local
2) It's the economy, stupid.

Rapier108 said:

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Ag with kids said:

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Rapier108 said:

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North Carolina is a lost cause.

Ohio (Vivek is going to lose the governorship and damage the Republicans down ballot)
Alaska (Democrat has been consistently leading in the polls by 5+)
Maine (Collins is a survivor; really going to depend on who the Democrat nominee is)

Texas and Iowa are low probability, but not zero.

Nebraska will be a potential problem again because the Democrats aren't running a candidate. Instead they're backing "Independent" Dan Osborn again and he did fairly well in 2024. He's a leftist running as a "moderate."

---

Nobody has mentioned that GA may flip back to Republican. Ossoff was slightly BEHIND Perdue, the Republican, but neither got the majority so they went to a runoff.

Ossoff won the runoff by a VERY small margin...

---

Currently ranked either D-Hold or Tossup.

---

And could be. Although, Georgia is still not a blue state. They won that seat by deception and Trump being a dumbass and telling people to not vote in that election because it was all rigged.

Do either favor Republicans?

jja79 said:

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Do either favor Republicans?

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Depends on the election but the first one does in state elections...

I don't live there but don't want to see Texas go the wrong way.

MouthBQ98 said:

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Collin's possibly. It's hard to gauge. No Trump on the ballot makes it a bit more unpredictable regarding who will turn out. Republican voters and get out the vote activity is typically more lazy and unfocused in non presidential elections.

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Why do Republicans always need incentive? You incentive morons is that voting Republican slows down the death of western civilization.

2026NCAggies said:

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For Rs to lose the senate Dems would have to sweep the following

Alaska, Ohio, Maine and North Carolina.

While holding New Hampshire, Michigan and Georgia

I give that about 10% chance of happening

Prediction Rs carry the senate 52 or 53 seats

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I pray you're right.

By the way this no hope of the American dream is a joke and has been consistently shown as not true. Now if you are an lol fat or go around pretending to be a they maybe you don't. If you are out protesting while running up student debt and not bettering yourself then maybe not.

Millions of young people are living the American dream. They aren't putting Ukraine flags on facebook and double masking their fat worthless bodies. They are out working, finding things they excel at and bettering themselves. Young people who sit behind a keyboard or a protest sign screaming life isn't fair are the ones failing. That's always been the case. There are winners and losers. Losers blame others while winners continue to work even when they are successful. Which one are you? Which one are your kids? Given that you have been proven to be a hypocrite I bet I can guess.

Somebody save that post by Rapier. Literally none of that will happen. It's a TDS post if I've ever seen one.

Ag98and03 said:

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All the Rs need to be cleaned out. Spineless cowards that allow wholesale grifting, waring, and not holding Trump to account.

---

This is laughable, at best. Santos (R) was expelled before convicted. Swalwell was still in Congress with Ilhan Omar (married her brother & has 2 non-existent companies that made $30M), Cherfilus-McCormick stole $5M in FEMA money & 25 ethics violations, McIver charged with assaulting LE. And we really do know now that Democrats were aware of Swalwell's disgusting behavior the whole time, and ignored it until he needed to be kicked out of the governors race.

Republicans need to pass the Save America act to support secure elections again in this country, over the objection of corrupt Democrats.

And utter slimeball Newsom (D) delayed a special election to fill an empty US House seat (due to the death of LaMalfa) until the last possible date allowed by law, in August, leaving Californians without representation most of the year.

I'm still trying to figure out how someone that would most likely put an Ukraine flag on their profile would not know how to spell warring.

Quote:

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What Senate seats could Republicans realistically lose due to cheating

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FIFY

Ag98and03 said:

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All the Rs need to be cleaned out. Spineless cowards that allow wholesale grifting, waring, and not holding Trump to account.

They have given up the power of Congress to an autocrat. They should all go.

The general 20 point shift D will be very interesting in Nov. To this date, I don't think Rs have flipped a single blue state in state or federal elections.

I hope we finally get sense back in Texas, but we are too busy trying to force 10 Commandments into classrooms, rather than worrying about affordability.

We have an entire generation of young adults who have no hope in the American dream. I'm not sure if they will get out and vote, but they are generally cynical about literally ever affording a house, making a living wage, etc.

---

You're worried about affordability and you want to elect more democrats? Well, that's a choice, I guess...

backintexas2013 said:

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By the way this no hope of the American dream is a joke and has been consistently shown as not true. Now if you are an lol fat or go around pretending to be a they maybe you don't. If you are out protesting while running up student debt and not bettering yourself then maybe not.

Millions of young people are living the American dream. They aren't putting Ukraine flags on facebook and double masking their fat worthless bodies. They are out working, finding things they excel at and bettering themselves. Young people who sit behind a keyboard or a protest sign screaming life isn't fair are the ones failing. That's always been the case. There are winners and losers. Losers blame others while winners continue to work even when they are successful. Which one are you? Which one are your kids? Given that you have been proven to be a hypocrite I bet I can guess.

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Personal responsibility and locus of control still exist. That can be true while recognizing the underlying economics of buying a single family home as a percentage of income and raising kids as a percentage of income have shot up asked asymtotically. The average young worker will have to work far more hours for the same lifestyle their parents and grandparents had.

jja79 said:

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I don't live there but don't want to see Texas go the wrong way.

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It will not be close.