Master Sergeant commits treason (imo)

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Over_ed
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10:52a, 4/24/26
AG
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-classified-information-profit-prediction-market-bets

Special Forces soldier goes on Polymarket, bets on the Maduro raid (Venezuela), and earns $400K.

Only one problem--he was in on the planning of the op. Only charged with misuse of classified information by Department of Justice. Specifically -- three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, one count of wire fraud ; and one count of an unlawful monetary transaction. The specifics are 7 - 10 paragraphs down in the link.

My take -

I get it. It seems that the great majority of our leaders are dipping their beaks, why not wet yours too?

But it doesn't seem too far fetched for the change in polymarket odds to have caused a lot of casualties; I would think all of the major players (including Russia) monitor it regularly.

In the service I carried almost every clearance (NATO/Top Secret/...) due to the specifics of my posting in Berlin. I can't imagine what circumstances would drive a career soldier to make so many bad decisions. His punishment should be more severe and set a clear example, imo

Besides, it was stupid (if you read those paragraphs), and stupidity deserves it own special prize.
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Colonel Kurtz
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10:54a, 4/24/26
AG
Rookie mistake. He should've got elected to Congress first.
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Rapier108
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10:54a, 4/24/26
Not treason. Not even close.

Does anyone bother to read the law and the Constitution anymore?

Article III, Section 3, Clause 1:
Quote:
Treason against the United States, shall consist only in levying War against them, or in adhering to their Enemies, giving them Aid and Comfort. No Person shall be convicted of Treason unless on the Testimony of two Witnesses to the same overt Act, or on Confession in open Court.

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Ciboag96
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In reply to Colonel Kurtz • 10:55a, 4/24/26
Colonel Kurtz said:
Rookie mistake. He should've got elected to Congress first.


Nailed it
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pacecar02
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10:59a, 4/24/26
lol, its inside baseball, not treason
no sig
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Rexter
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11:03a, 4/24/26
Not treason. Insider information maybe. Get back to me when they go after congress critters.
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HTownAg98
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11:06a, 4/24/26
Quote:
"Today's announcement makes clear no one is above the law, and this FBI will do whatever it takes to defend the homeland and safeguard our nation's secrets," said FBI Director Kash Patel. "Any clearance holders thinking of cashing in their access and knowledge for personal gain will be held accountable."

Lol. Lmao, even.
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Burpelson
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11:08a, 4/24/26
He acted on top secret information, that is where he is getting into chummy waters.
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nomad2007
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11:13a, 4/24/26
AG
If you hate your money, bet on bull**** on poly market or kalshi. Someone, Somewhere who has inside info is ready to transfer your money to their pocket.
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tk111
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11:16a, 4/24/26
AG
Yeah not seeing the treason angle... If anything, he gave himself even more incentive to get the job done against an American enemy, right?
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TxSquarebody
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11:20a, 4/24/26
Like Charlie Hustle, he didn't bet against his team.
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AGHouston11
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11:25a, 4/24/26
AG
If this is an issue then where is the investigation in the early morning bets in the oil markets just before Trumps announcements/posts? Hundreds of millions made by some people with obvious inside information.
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HTownAg98
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In reply to AGHouston11 • 11:28a, 4/24/26
Silly rabbit, grift is for insiders.
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PaulsBunions
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11:31a, 4/24/26
AG
Pete Rose should be in the HOF
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TAMU1990
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In reply to Over_ed • 11:31a, 4/24/26
AG
Over_ed said:
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-classified-information-profit-prediction-market-bets

Special Forces soldier goes on Polymarket, bets on the Maduro raid (Venezuela), and earns $400K.

Only one problem--he was in on the planning of the op. Only charged with misuse of classified information by Department of Justice. Specifically -- three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, one count of wire fraud ; and one count of an unlawful monetary transaction. The specifics are 7 - 10 paragraphs down in the link.

My take -

I get it. It seems that the great majority of our leaders are dipping their beaks, why not wet yours too?

But it doesn't seem too far fetched for the change in polymarket odds to have caused a lot of casualties; I would think all of the major players (including Russia) monitor it regularly.

In the service I carried almost every clearance (NATO/Top Secret/...) due to the specifics of my posting in Berlin. I can't imagine what circumstances would drive a career soldier to make so many bad decisions. His punishment should be more severe and set a clear example, imo

Besides, it was stupid (if you read those paragraphs), and stupidity deserves it own special prize.


It's like congressional stock training
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Lathspell
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11:33a, 4/24/26
AG
I keep seeing "Special Forces" on this story.

Is this really Special Forces or is it a Delta Master Sergeant? It was my understanding that this operation was handled by Delta, so they are either using the wrong term for the unit, if the Master Sergeant was part of the unit/team, or this was a Master Sergeant who knew some guys that were going on the mission and used that knowledge to place that bet. I know most people default to saying "Special Forces" when they mean "Special Operations", so just curious on this particular story.

Either way, I agree with your synopsis. This isn't a matter of insider trading. This is a matter of jeopardizing the success of the mission, and thereby the lives of the soldiers.
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tysker
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11:39a, 4/24/26
AG
prediction markets are designed to capture this type of information through pricing
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FrioAg 00
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11:43a, 4/24/26
AG
I think the most relevant question is whether or not any information could have been ascertained by observing such large bets being placed regarding the timing of the mission. My gut is yes, it could have been.

As such, he put lives at risk by leaking classified information. That cannot and should not be easily dismissed or taken lightly.
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Tailgate88
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In reply to Colonel Kurtz • 11:49a, 4/24/26
AG
Colonel Kurtz said:
Rookie mistake. He should've got elected to Congress first.


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DTP02
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11:50a, 4/24/26
AG
His military career is over, probably with a dishonorable discharge, he's going to have to disgorge his winnings, and he may do some years in club fed.

That seems like adequate punishment and enough of a deterrent.
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Zachary Klement
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In reply to FrioAg 00 • 11:51a, 4/24/26
AG
FrioAg 00 said:
I think the most relevant question is whether or not any information could have been ascertained by observing such large bets being placed regarding the timing of the mission. My gut is yes, it could have been.

As such, he put lives at risk by leaking classified information. That cannot and should not be easily dismissed or taken lightly.

I believe some of the trades are public.

I started a thread about Prediction Markets a while back and linked a tweets about big bets correctly calling American and Israeli military action.

This was inevitable and will continue to happen with government officials now that this is legal.

ETA:

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Zachary Klement
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In reply to TAMU1990 • 11:56a, 4/24/26
AG
TAMU1990 said:
Over_ed said:
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/us-soldier-charged-using-classified-information-profit-prediction-market-bets

Special Forces soldier goes on Polymarket, bets on the Maduro raid (Venezuela), and earns $400K.

Only one problem--he was in on the planning of the op. Only charged with misuse of classified information by Department of Justice. Specifically -- three counts of violating the Commodity Exchange Act, one count of wire fraud ; and one count of an unlawful monetary transaction. The specifics are 7 - 10 paragraphs down in the link.

My take -

I get it. It seems that the great majority of our leaders are dipping their beaks, why not wet yours too?

But it doesn't seem too far fetched for the change in polymarket odds to have caused a lot of casualties; I would think all of the major players (including Russia) monitor it regularly.

In the service I carried almost every clearance (NATO/Top Secret/...) due to the specifics of my posting in Berlin. I can't imagine what circumstances would drive a career soldier to make so many bad decisions. His punishment should be more severe and set a clear example, imo

Besides, it was stupid (if you read those paragraphs), and stupidity deserves it own special prize.


It's like congressional stock training

Why shouldn't our civil servants be allowed to enrich themselves on insider information? They work so hard, care about us so much, and they barely get paid anything for their honorable work!
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tysker
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In reply to DTP02 • 12:09p, 4/24/26
AG
Quote:
That seems like adequate punishment and enough of a deterrent.

Exactly opposite, imo.
Now the marketplace knows they just need to coordinate with others who are outside of jurisdictional reach, and place a large enough amount of money to make it worth it


eta: in other words, people in the know (or have "inside information") have an incentive to utilize third parties and non-US transactions to place large bets on these events. It's a feature, not a bug, of these prediction markets.
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Viper16
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In reply to Over_ed • 12:16p, 4/24/26
AG
Nancy Pelosi says hold my beer!

Start with her first!

Then every other politician in D.C. before we get to the "small fry people!"
The two most dangerous domestic terrorists groups in the USA are the modern democrat party and the main stream media.
Class of ‘73
F-16 FWS
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BQ78
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12:17p, 4/24/26
AG
The difference between this and congressional insider trading is military missions are not potentially compromised and soldiers don't die due to the latter. This is a serious breach and the guy needs to have his nuts hammered into cream.

A huge breach of trust with his military brethren .
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Over_ed
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12:24p, 4/24/26
AG




:-)
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Over_ed
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In reply to BQ78 • 12:31p, 4/24/26
AG
BQ78 said:
The difference between this and congressional insider trading is military missions are not potentially compromised and soldiers don't die due to the latter. This is a serious breach and the guy needs to have his nuts hammered into cream.

A huge breach of trust with his military brethren .

Amen.
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Hank the Grifter
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1:06p, 4/24/26
Just like the marijuana issue, gambling has become more and more pervasive throughout society. It's used to be taboo to discuss in ESPN, now it's a part of damn near every program.
Maybe, just maybe, temperance laws existed for a reason and the "make money any time, any place, any way" mentality isn't such a great idea after all.
There's got to be a balance between "muh freedom" and complete and total hedonism, which is where we are rapidly headed.
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captkirk
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1:11p, 4/24/26
AG
Get ready for heavy prediction market regulations.
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Ulysses90
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In reply to Zachary Klement • 1:18p, 4/24/26
AG
Zachary Klement said:
FrioAg 00 said:
I think the most relevant question is whether or not any information could have been ascertained by observing such large bets being placed regarding the timing of the mission. My gut is yes, it could have been.

As such, he put lives at risk by leaking classified information. That cannot and should not be easily dismissed or taken lightly.

I believe some of the trades are public.

I started a thread about Prediction Markets a while back and linked a tweets about big bets correctly calling American and Israeli military action.

This was inevitable and will continue to happen with government officials now that this is legal.

ETA:


At least it was one of the 'silent professionals' from USASOC. If it had been a NSW operator, he would have put frogs or tridents in his user handle.
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Biz Ag
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In reply to Colonel Kurtz • 1:28p, 4/24/26
AG
Colonel Kurtz said:
Rookie mistake. He should've got elected to Congress first.

Pelosi's pissed she didn't think of it first.

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AGHouston11
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2:14p, 4/24/26
AG
You don't mess with gambling money. Kash will be right on top of it. Too bad the Supreme Court leaker didn't make some bets.

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aggiehawg
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In reply to Biz Ag • 2:32p, 4/24/26
AG
Biz Ag said:
Colonel Kurtz said:
Rookie mistake. He should've got elected to Congress first.

Pelosi's pissed she didn't think of it first.


Who says she didn't?
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Concerned Moderate Ag
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In reply to captkirk • 2:55p, 4/24/26
captkirk said:
Get ready for heavy prediction market regulations.


Good. It's insane. Gambling should be left to sports and games. If someone rigs a game, in the grand scheme of things, who gives a ***** It's mind boggling to me that people can bet on a decision another person will make.
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Dr. Mephisto
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In reply to Colonel Kurtz • 2:59p, 4/24/26
AG
Colonel Kurtz said:
Rookie mistake. He should've got elected to Congress first.


Brilliant!
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