Z3phyr said:

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Options:
-You save money and don't need it because AI created utopia
-You save money and you use it to retire
-You don't save money but turns out you need it
-Skynet

Saving for retirement doesn't make any situation worse, not saving could

---

Exactly. It's the Pascal's Wager of economics: if unsure whether God exists, better to believe in him and possibly go to heaven, since you lose nothing if he doesn't. Or like the adage for carrying a firearm: better to have it and not need it than to need it and not have it.

Saving for retirement is kind of like that.

I'm still planning for retirement, but the world is changing. A few thoughts:

1. What does scarcity mean when you can globally source anything you need? Also, what if you had an army of robots who could do things like scour landfills to find usable materials? Things that were previously scarce could be available.
2. Even if robots and AI don't create utopia for everyone, a bunch of people will be displaced and will be eventually unemployable. Without UBI, we will have the makings of a bunch of revolutionaries.
3. I don't know what will make all of that work.

BTKAG97 said:

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There will be a point in the future - how far into the future is anyone's guess - where evrything is automated.

To be clear, EVERYTHING means EVERYTHING. It won't matter if the task is blue or white collar.

When this happens, you have to ask what will become of humans? Many think life will be utopian with no wants in the world though reality will most likely devolve into a resource scarce hellhole for a massive majority of humans.

The reason I believe this is what we can expect is because there is no way a Trillion+ humans can go about life doing whatever they want and consume whatever they want. ALL resources on this planet (including renewables) are finite therefore they will need to be rationed to the extreme and who or what will get to decide how much each individual will receive? Our current form of rationing, currency via income, will no longer exist because there will not be a means for individual humans to generate value (thus earning an income).

Will everyone be rationed the exact same amount (which we all know won't apply to the top 1-3% power brokers)?

Will a class system develop that makes "A Brave New World" envious?

Who will be the top 1-3% that basically make global decisions? Will that 1-3% even be human?

ADDED: I guess the world could take the "Pantheon" route and plug everyone into the cloud which would eventually kill off the human race since no one would procreate.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pantheon_(TV_series)

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My only counter to this and actually part of Elon's vision for why he thinks AI and robots will solve "scarcity" is that we aren't getting anywhere near 1T people with our species. We are about to start the global de-population phase of humanity and have to manage that decline. That's one of the reasons he says robots will outnumber humans at some point and it also means we aren't actually solving scarcity because we may not have to due to de-population.

If you follow the math on de-population, it's actually pretty damn rapid too. It's already assumed China is on the downslope and lying about their population right now. They are about to fall off a cliff, relatively speaking.

Quote:

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There will be a point in the future - how far into the future is anyone's guess - where evrything is automated.

To be clear, EVERYTHING means EVERYTHING. It won't matter if the task is blue or white collar.

---

My guess is 100 years.

Quote:

---

When this happens, you have to ask what will become of humans?

---

Additionally, you will have to ask what it even means to be human? If we can get anything we want without work or struggle, truly want for nothing, do we just become like the people in WAL-E?

The AI/Robotics Revolution is here.

We're in the first phase where basically any job that doesn't require a human's physical presence, only their knowledge are about to be gone and that's a lot of white collar jobs.

The Hospital System I work with is already having serious discussions about the future of radiology. Right now most radiologists work from home/remotely and AI allows you to just send the image to the AI and it can interpret just as accurately or better and quicker. It reads your results in 10 seconds.

They are talking about keeping a handful of radiologists as backups in case there's any question or concern, a "second opinion" of you will but the vast majority will likely be phased out over the next few years

AI can now do surgeries using the Davinci surgery robot. They learn quicker than humans and make fewer mistakes. It hasn't been done on a human yet but they can successfully take out a pigs gallbladder. Again this is further out but eventually you'll see surgery centers where there's just one surgeon covering 10 AI surgery bots in case it breaks down or need a human to take over for whatever reason.

Now the Radiology Technician and Scrub Nurses are safe for now because AI needs real world humans to take the images it's interpreting and prep and setup a patient for surgery and assist the robot AI during the procedure but they're making C-arms with AI that drive themselves around taking exams and Japan is developing Robo-nurses to "supplement" the human team but we all know how that goes.

Point is, those of us who are Millenials may be the very last generation where the standard 45-50 year work career is still a standard expectation for most people. So yeah, the final screwing of the Millennials: most of you still have to work a full career and suffer the painful transition to the robot AI economy

Maroon Dawn said:

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The AI/Robotics Revolution is here.

We're in the first phase where basically any job that doesn't require a human's physical presence, only their knowledge are about to be gone and that's a lot of white collar jobs.

The Hospital System I work with is already having serious discussions about the future of radiology. Right now most radiologists work from home/remotely and AI allows you to just send the image to the AI and it can interpret just as accurately or better and quicker. It reads your results in 10 seconds.

They are talking about keeping a handful of radiologists as backups in case there's any question or concern, a "second opinion" of you will but the vast majority will likely be phased out over the next few years

AI can now do surgeries using the Davinci surgery robot. They learn quicker than humans and make fewer mistakes. It hasn't been done on a human yet but they can successfully take out a pigs gallbladder. Again this is further out but eventually you'll see surgery centers where there's just one surgeon covering 10 AI surgery bots in case it breaks down or need a human to take over for whatever reason.

Now the Radiology Technician and Scrub Nurses are safe for now because AI needs real world humans to take the images it's interpreting and prep and setup a patient for surgery and assist the robot AI during the procedure but they're making C-arms with AI that drive themselves around taking exams and Japan is developing Robo-nurses to "supplement" the human team but we all know how that goes.

Point is, those of us who are Millenials may be the very last generation where the standard 45-50 year work career is still a standard expectation for most people. So yeah, the final screwing of the Millennials: most of you still have to work a full career and suffer the painful transition to the robot AI economy

---

Im Gipper said:

---

Quote:

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There will be a point in the future - how far into the future is anyone's guess - where evrything is automated.

To be clear, EVERYTHING means EVERYTHING. It won't matter if the task is blue or white collar.

---

My guess is 100 years.

Quote:

---

When this happens, you have to ask what will become of humans?

---

Additionally, you will have to ask what it even means to be human? If we can get anything we want without work or struggle, truly want for nothing, do we just become like the people in WAL-E?

---

It was on this board many moons ago that the "Star Trek economy" was being discussed and the Replicator in particular and how it purportedly removed the Law of Scarcity.

It was blown up by the guy (not me...wish it had been) that asked, "Really? Then why can't everyone have a starship?"

Okay, Elon, So, when I get my free mega-yacht on Lake Travis, how can I dock it or float it when the entire lake is covered side-by-side with 2 million other Austinite's mega-yachts?

Okay, maybe that's a bit extreme. Let's just give 2 million Austinite's 18' run-about boats. Basically, still the same problem. Let's just keep scaling this back and forth and you can immediately see how what Elon is proposing is nonsense.

Now, maybe a minimum basic income will happen, which is not too far off anyway as right now 1 out of every 3 Americans already receives some form of public assistance. But for anything more than that, people will still work and save for those extra limited resources they want.

Principal Uncertainty said:

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Okay, Elon, So, when I get my free mega-yacht on Lake Travis, how can I dock it or float it when the entire lake is covered side-by-side with 2 million other Austinite's mega-yachts?

Okay, maybe that's a bit extreme. Let's just give 2 million Austinite's 18' run-about boats. Basically, still the same problem. Let's just keep scaling this back and forth and you can immediately see how what Elon is proposing is nonsense.

Now, maybe a minimum basic income will happen, which is not too far off anyway as right now 1 out of every 3 Americans already receives some form of public assistance. But for anything more than that, people will still work and save for those extra limited resources they want.

---

It would actually suck if everyone was wealthy because of your extreme example. Experiences would no longer matter or be worth the effort.

This is why in any sci-fi book you read where scarcity has been solved they've also solved for interstellar travel so that humanity can spread out and maintain experiences and the elbow room to have some level of differentiation.
People will self select to planets that pursue their desires form of government and living.

If we somehow solve scarcity without solving interstellar travel, you are going to have some kind of weird reverse poverty. If everyone wants for nothing and access is available for everyone, this will lead to some dark **** that people will pursue to get some semblance of living and exhilaration.

It's why the uber wealthy of the present day move past material things and common man experiences and start dabbling in global population control, government manipulation and influence, and other population level endeavors. It's the only way they can still get their rocks off.

YouBet said:

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Principal Uncertainty said:

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Okay, Elon, So, when I get my free mega-yacht on Lake Travis, how can I dock it or float it when the entire lake is covered side-by-side with 2 million other Austinite's mega-yachts?

Okay, maybe that's a bit extreme. Let's just give 2 million Austinite's 18' run-about boats. Basically, still the same problem. Let's just keep scaling this back and forth and you can immediately see how what Elon is proposing is nonsense.

Now, maybe a minimum basic income will happen, which is not too far off anyway as right now 1 out of every 3 Americans already receives some form of public assistance. But for anything more than that, people will still work and save for those extra limited resources they want.

---

It would actually suck if everyone was wealthy because of your extreme example. Experiences would no longer matter or be worth the effort.

This is why in any sci-fi book you read where scarcity has been solved they've also solved for interstellar travel so that humanity can spread out and maintain experiences and the elbow room to have some level of differentiation.
People will self select to planets that pursue their desires form of government and living.

If we somehow solve scarcity without solving interstellar travel, you are going to have some kind of weird reverse poverty. If everyone wants for nothing and access is available for everyone, this will lead to some dark **** that people will pursue to get some semblance of living and exhilaration.

It's why the uber wealthy of the present day move past material things and common man experiences and start dabbling in global population control, government manipulation and influence, and other population level endeavors. It's the only way they can still get their rocks off.

---

I disagree, I don't think they are mutually exclusive.... If you think about it the vast majority of american's today have way more everyday conveniences than a king 200 years ago.

running warm water, electricity, A/C/Heating, larger food availability, access to unlimited information, you can go on and on.

Just because everyone has those things now does not mean they are not valuable.

harge57 said:

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YouBet said:

---

Principal Uncertainty said:

---

Okay, Elon, So, when I get my free mega-yacht on Lake Travis, how can I dock it or float it when the entire lake is covered side-by-side with 2 million other Austinite's mega-yachts?

Okay, maybe that's a bit extreme. Let's just give 2 million Austinite's 18' run-about boats. Basically, still the same problem. Let's just keep scaling this back and forth and you can immediately see how what Elon is proposing is nonsense.

Now, maybe a minimum basic income will happen, which is not too far off anyway as right now 1 out of every 3 Americans already receives some form of public assistance. But for anything more than that, people will still work and save for those extra limited resources they want.

---

It would actually suck if everyone was wealthy because of your extreme example. Experiences would no longer matter or be worth the effort.

This is why in any sci-fi book you read where scarcity has been solved they've also solved for interstellar travel so that humanity can spread out and maintain experiences and the elbow room to have some level of differentiation.
People will self select to planets that pursue their desires form of government and living.

If we somehow solve scarcity without solving interstellar travel, you are going to have some kind of weird reverse poverty. If everyone wants for nothing and access is available for everyone, this will lead to some dark **** that people will pursue to get some semblance of living and exhilaration.

It's why the uber wealthy of the present day move past material things and common man experiences and start dabbling in global population control, government manipulation and influence, and other population level endeavors. It's the only way they can still get their rocks off.

---

I disagree, I don't think they are mutually exclusive.... If you think about it the vast majority of american's today have way more everyday conveniences than a king 200 years ago.

running warm water, electricity, A/C/Heating, larger food availability, access to unlimited information, you can go on and on.

Just because everyone has those things now does not mean they are not valuable.

---

Right but I'm talking about access beyond Maslow needs.

If anyone and everyone can go to the Monaco Grand Prix, then there is nothing that provides a thrill anymore. I also think this is why Elons vision is a pipe dream. Unless we solve interstellar travel, people will figure out a way to limit access even if everyone has the means.

Elites will remain elites. They will have their distance somehow.

YouBet said:

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harge57 said:

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YouBet said:

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Principal Uncertainty said:

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Okay, Elon, So, when I get my free mega-yacht on Lake Travis, how can I dock it or float it when the entire lake is covered side-by-side with 2 million other Austinite's mega-yachts?

Okay, maybe that's a bit extreme. Let's just give 2 million Austinite's 18' run-about boats. Basically, still the same problem. Let's just keep scaling this back and forth and you can immediately see how what Elon is proposing is nonsense.

Now, maybe a minimum basic income will happen, which is not too far off anyway as right now 1 out of every 3 Americans already receives some form of public assistance. But for anything more than that, people will still work and save for those extra limited resources they want.

---

It would actually suck if everyone was wealthy because of your extreme example. Experiences would no longer matter or be worth the effort.

This is why in any sci-fi book you read where scarcity has been solved they've also solved for interstellar travel so that humanity can spread out and maintain experiences and the elbow room to have some level of differentiation.
People will self select to planets that pursue their desires form of government and living.

If we somehow solve scarcity without solving interstellar travel, you are going to have some kind of weird reverse poverty. If everyone wants for nothing and access is available for everyone, this will lead to some dark **** that people will pursue to get some semblance of living and exhilaration.

It's why the uber wealthy of the present day move past material things and common man experiences and start dabbling in global population control, government manipulation and influence, and other population level endeavors. It's the only way they can still get their rocks off.

---

I disagree, I don't think they are mutually exclusive.... If you think about it the vast majority of american's today have way more everyday conveniences than a king 200 years ago.

running warm water, electricity, A/C/Heating, larger food availability, access to unlimited information, you can go on and on.

Just because everyone has those things now does not mean they are not valuable.

---

Right but I'm talking about access beyond Maslow needs.

If anyone and everyone can go to the Monaco Grand Prix, then there is nothing that provides a thrill anymore. I also think this is why Elons vision is a pipe dream. Unless we solve interstellar travel, people will figure out a way to limit access even if everyone has the means.

Elites will remain elites. They will have their distance somehow.

---

The improvements go well beyond Maslow's needs. Transportation, entertainment, leisure time and activities are all vastly revolutionized. Just because an elite class will remain does not mean that the every day person's life can't be drastically improved for the better and even well beyond the elite of today.

The only time I won't "worry about it" is Elon gives it to me in writing in a legal document that says that if things go bad, he is going to cover my retirement through his funds.

Until then don't listen to him.

We will never get rid of the free market when it comes to human labor so it will always be possible to have more wealth than others that don't work, regardless of how high any UBI is. That will still drive innovation and creativity.

So the idea that in 20+ years no one will have to have a big retirement account in order to retire comfortably is not really far fetched. If you want to retire in style and be able to do even more than most in retirement, then save.

The state will seize whatever necessary and "tolerable" to perpetuate the system.

In 1961 at the 22nd Soviet Party Congress full communism was predicted to be 20 years away. Complete free housing etc.

So can we denounce Elon as a socialist? A Commie?

No one here has the guts to do that as Elon is rich and successful (hence boot lick worthy), unfortunately, but they will pick on other posters for the treatment.

infinity ag said:

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So can we denounce Elon as a socialist? A Commie?

No one here has the guts to do that as Elon is rich and successful (hence boot lick worthy), unfortunately, but they will pick on other posters for the treatment.

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Don't think socialism or communism is his point at all. You are being obtuse if you think he endorses either of those ideas.

His point is productivity improvements will be so radically vast that the cost of living in our retirement will be so low that meeting the basic needs will pretty much be a moot point.

I hate to be a fatalist, but although if I retire in 12 years I'll be fine financially (if I can get the Mrs. to curb her spending), with my stress levels I think the thought of me living another 12 years might be too optimistic.

But at least my wife will be a financially secure widow.

harge57 said:

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infinity ag said:

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So can we denounce Elon as a socialist? A Commie?

No one here has the guts to do that as Elon is rich and successful (hence boot lick worthy), unfortunately, but they will pick on other posters for the treatment.

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Don't think socialism or communism is his point at all. You are being obtuse if you think he endorses either of those ideas.

His point is productivity improvements will be so radically vast that the cost of living in our retirement will be so low that meeting the basic needs will pretty much be a moot point.

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Productivity where the work and product can all be digital, sure. Sky is the limit on that one. AI computers can create movies and books and music and contracts and VR. Entertainment, education, contracts, blueprints, diagrams, schematics, instruction manuals, reference documents, news. Anything that is communicating thoughts or ideas or knowledge. We will reach a point where you can create more content than anyone could ever want or need easily.


Productivity where the work and the product have to exist in a physical format? Not so fast my friend. Fabricating things in the real world needs materials and energy, and those are much more limited in availability. AI and even robotics aren't going to suddenly revolutionize the cost and availability of food, clothes, housing, transportation, heating and cooling and lighting living spaces, electronics, appliances, etc.. They may reduce labor costs for some things eventually. We may see significant changes there, but not to the point where physical scarcity ceases to exist.

Principal Uncertainty said:

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Okay, Elon, So, when I get my free mega-yacht on Lake Travis, how can I dock it or float it when the entire lake is covered side-by-side with 2 million other Austinite's mega-yachts?

Okay, maybe that's a bit extreme. Let's just give 2 million Austinite's 18' run-about boats. Basically, still the same problem. Let's just keep scaling this back and forth and you can immediately see how what Elon is proposing is nonsense.

Now, maybe a minimum basic income will happen, which is not too far off anyway as right now 1 out of every 3 Americans already receives some form of public assistance. But for anything more than that, people will still work and save for those extra limited resources they want.

---

At some point we'll likely need a reduction in global population. A lot more availability of space and everything else if there's only tens of millions of us running around than billions.

harge57 said:

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infinity ag said:

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So can we denounce Elon as a socialist? A Commie?

No one here has the guts to do that as Elon is rich and successful (hence boot lick worthy), unfortunately, but they will pick on other posters for the treatment.

---

Don't think socialism or communism is his point at all. You are being obtuse if you think he endorses either of those ideas.

His point is productivity improvements will be so radically vast that the cost of living in our retirement will be so low that meeting the basic needs will pretty much be a moot point.

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He endorses whatever makes him money and power.
You can label it whatever you like.
End of story.

In Elon's mind he thinks Optimus evolves into that physical world much more rapidly than most think. I think like most of his projections he may not be wrong but he is probably too early.

Even if it becomes reality, there's bound to be a challenging adjustment phase, and people will need a financial cushion to carry them through.

Musk wants you to work forever and make more babies becuse he wants a constant supply of customers

Maroon Dawn said:

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The AI/Robotics Revolution is here.

We're in the first phase where basically any job that doesn't require a human's physical presence, only their knowledge are about to be gone and that's a lot of white collar jobs.

The Hospital System I work with is already having serious discussions about the future of radiology. Right now most radiologists work from home/remotely and AI allows you to just send the image to the AI and it can interpret just as accurately or better and quicker. It reads your results in 10 seconds.

They are talking about keeping a handful of radiologists as backups in case there's any question or concern, a "second opinion" of you will but the vast majority will likely be phased out over the next few years

AI can now do surgeries using the Davinci surgery robot. They learn quicker than humans and make fewer mistakes. It hasn't been done on a human yet but they can successfully take out a pigs gallbladder. Again this is further out but eventually you'll see surgery centers where there's just one surgeon covering 10 AI surgery bots in case it breaks down or need a human to take over for whatever reason.

Now the Radiology Technician and Scrub Nurses are safe for now because AI needs real world humans to take the images it's interpreting and prep and setup a patient for surgery and assist the robot AI during the procedure but they're making C-arms with AI that drive themselves around taking exams and Japan is developing Robo-nurses to "supplement" the human team but we all know how that goes.

Point is, those of us who are Millenials may be the very last generation where the standard 45-50 year work career is still a standard expectation for most people. So yeah, the final screwing of the Millennials: most of you still have to work a full career and suffer the painful transition to the robot AI economy

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If a surgeon isn't operating frequently then it will be very difficult to maintain the skill needed to save an operation when a robot breaks down/screws up.

If a radiologist isn't interpreting independently it will also be difficult to know when and how to disagree with an AI interpretation.

Once AI takes over there will really be no place for human physicians. How can you maintain a skill if you aren't continuously "practicing" medicine?

This can't be correct. I was told by a radiologist on this very board that this is impossible:

Quote:

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The Hospital System I work with is already having serious discussions about the future of radiology. Right now most radiologists work from home/remotely and AI allows you to just send the image to the AI and it can interpret just as accurately or better and quicker. It reads your results in 10 seconds.

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techno-ag said:

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Listen to this guy for retirement. S&P ETFs and avoid debt like the plague.

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IMHO the majority of our societal decline can be attributed to technological advances that lead to productivity gains, decreasing the effort required to live and consume abundantly.

Turns out that we need the structure that scarcity and decay create. Without it we turn hard towards very dangerous pitfalls and destruction.

flown-the-coop said:

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Aggie_Boomin 21 said:

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He also said we'd be on Mars by now

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Pretty sure he's already there.

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lol. My Porsche 911 GT3 still gonna look like a GT3 and your Muskmobile gonna suck ask. All retirements are not the same.

you know who else believed the state could provide guaranteed income for the citizens?

Off the labor of humans, who don't tend to work hard when working harder doesn't benefit them more personally.

Robot labor doesn't need motivation.

Z3phyr said:

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txags92 said:

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Z3phyr said:

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Options:
-You save money and don't need it because AI created utopia
-You save money and you use it to retire
-You don't save money but turns out you need it
- You save money, but the marxists in the government decide to take it from you and give it to other people who didn't save anything and never worked a day in their life.
-Skynet

Saving for retirement doesn't make any situation worse, not saving could

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You forgot the option that is actually most likely at this point.

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That is looped into Skynet

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did having millions of black slaves working for free

mean that everyone in the South was rich?

hint: the answer was NO

Texaggie7nine said:

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Off the labor of humans, who don't tend to work hard when working harder doesn't benefit them more personally.

Robot labor doesn't need motivation.

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so the "government" gives out free money to billions of people-

so that humans can buy things from robots.

who paid to build and maintain the robots?

harge57 said:

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YouBet said:

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harge57 said:

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YouBet said:

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Principal Uncertainty said:

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Okay, Elon, So, when I get my free mega-yacht on Lake Travis, how can I dock it or float it when the entire lake is covered side-by-side with 2 million other Austinite's mega-yachts?

Okay, maybe that's a bit extreme. Let's just give 2 million Austinite's 18' run-about boats. Basically, still the same problem. Let's just keep scaling this back and forth and you can immediately see how what Elon is proposing is nonsense.

Now, maybe a minimum basic income will happen, which is not too far off anyway as right now 1 out of every 3 Americans already receives some form of public assistance. But for anything more than that, people will still work and save for those extra limited resources they want.

---

It would actually suck if everyone was wealthy because of your extreme example. Experiences would no longer matter or be worth the effort.

This is why in any sci-fi book you read where scarcity has been solved they've also solved for interstellar travel so that humanity can spread out and maintain experiences and the elbow room to have some level of differentiation.
People will self select to planets that pursue their desires form of government and living.

If we somehow solve scarcity without solving interstellar travel, you are going to have some kind of weird reverse poverty. If everyone wants for nothing and access is available for everyone, this will lead to some dark **** that people will pursue to get some semblance of living and exhilaration.

It's why the uber wealthy of the present day move past material things and common man experiences and start dabbling in global population control, government manipulation and influence, and other population level endeavors. It's the only way they can still get their rocks off.

---

I disagree, I don't think they are mutually exclusive.... If you think about it the vast majority of american's today have way more everyday conveniences than a king 200 years ago.

running warm water, electricity, A/C/Heating, larger food availability, access to unlimited information, you can go on and on.

Just because everyone has those things now does not mean they are not valuable.

---

Right but I'm talking about access beyond Maslow needs.

If anyone and everyone can go to the Monaco Grand Prix, then there is nothing that provides a thrill anymore. I also think this is why Elons vision is a pipe dream. Unless we solve interstellar travel, people will figure out a way to limit access even if everyone has the means.

Elites will remain elites. They will have their distance somehow.

---

The improvements go well beyond Maslow's needs. Transportation, entertainment, leisure time and activities are all vastly revolutionized. Just because an elite class will remain does not mean that the every day person's life can't be drastically improved for the better and even well beyond the elite of today.

---

I agree with that. I guess I was really focusing on the far right tail scenarios that are only accessible to elites right now because of money and status. If money is no longer a barrier to entry, then some formerly inaccessible things will no longer be and make those things no longer desirable because everyone will be able to do it.