Ok, I wouldn't presume to be upset about that, but what does this really mean?

“UAE quits OPEC” headlines while flows are already broken? Cute. The market isn’t tight because of quotas, it’s tight because barrels can’t move. https://t.co/Ep558rJWdM

— The Signal Quant (@thespeedsignal) April 28, 2026

I think Signal is only looking at short oil flows and stating it won't effect price at the moment. Probably correct. To me this is big news for long term oil markets.

The majority of UAE's shoreline borders the Persian Gulf, but they do have oil facilities on the Gulf of Oman as well. Shipping from there would allow them to bypass the Straight of Hormuz; I wonder if exiting OPEC will give them more freedom to adjust where they are loading up their oil for export.

I don't know squat about it; just spit-balling.

One thing to keep in mind... We are just finally about to start seeing the actual supply impacts.

Taking into account transit times for a VLCC from the Persian Gulf to the US, the last pre-conflict departures are arriving now.

So why did prices already surge?

Kenneth_2003 said:

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One thing to keep in mind... We are just finally about to start seeing the actual supply impacts.

Taking into account transit times for a VLCC from the Persian Gulf to the US, the last pre-conflict departures are arriving now.

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To my knowledge, we only received 6 - 7 vlccs per month before the conflict and that was primarily to the west coast.

The gap is about 500k barrels per day and that is one of the targets of the SPR releases in addition to generally calming the market.

SPR can theoretically cover the west coast shortfall for 2+ years but since there is more release being done than just the shortfall, they're looking at about 4 months. Current release is scheduled to end mid July and that would leave the SPR at about 243M barrels, from 400+.

The problem is the SPR is primarily in the gulf and most of that is having to be transited to the west coast - that's the primary reason for the jones act waiver.

If the Iran conflict moves past mid June, then you'll either see demand destruction from higher prices ameloriate the price movements...or the prices will move higher and be tolerated. Supply/price issues are for Asia at this point, pricing issues for the US.

ABattJudd said:

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The majority of UAE's shoreline borders the Persian Gulf, but they do have oil facilities on the Gulf of Oman as well. Shipping from there would allow them to bypass the Straight of Hormuz; I wonder if exiting OPEC will give them more freedom to adjust where they are loading up their oil for export.

I don't know squat about it; just spit-balling.

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They have been building some rail lines (freight) and now are going to put one through to Aqaba (I suspect they will work to build a pipeline alongside this project at some point.)

Big News

The King of Jordan has approved the lease of the Jordanian Port of Aqaba to the UAE for 30 years, in order to develop a railway line connecting the Emirates with Jordan and Israel, as part of the new India-UAE-Israel trade corridor (Port of Haifa). pic.twitter.com/DDjpyXkgDq

— Shiri_Sabra (@sabra_the) April 25, 2026

'Our friends' the Saudis are working on shifting long term toward pipelines in the red sea as well, fwiw.

Seems likely
When the SoH reopen, the UAE is not going to let OPEC tell them how much they can pump for the first six months

lead said:

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So why did prices already surge?

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Because markets are forward looking and don't like shocks/surprises. Also the oil prices that are generally bantered around are Futures contract prices, not terminal spot pricing.

rocky the dog said:

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Quote:

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UAE Says Adios To OPEC!

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They speak Spanish over there?

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They speak money over there regardless if f language

If this means cheaper prices at the pump, Allah be praised.

No Spin Ag said:

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If this means cheaper prices at the pump, Allah be praised.

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You should make stickers we can put on the gas pumps!

flown-the-coop said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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If this means cheaper prices at the pump, Allah be praised.

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You should make stickers we can put on the gas pumps!

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"Allah did that!"

On it.

UAE will stand with the USA and Israel and hopefully ship as much oil as they are able to the rest of the world now

Fightin_Aggie said:

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rocky the dog said:

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Quote:

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UAE Says Adios To OPEC!

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They speak Spanish over there?

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They speak money over there regardless if f language

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Guess "Shalom" would not be appropriate here?

Owlagdad said:

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Fightin_Aggie said:

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rocky the dog said:

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Quote:

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UAE Says Adios To OPEC!

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They speak Spanish over there?

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They speak money over there regardless if f language

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Guess "Shalom" would not be appropriate here?

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Making that gelt rain like manna from paradise.

Pretty sure that may keen towards blasphemy but what the heck. Free speech!

LMCane said:

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UAE will stand with the USA and Israel and hopefully ship as much oil as they are able to the rest of the world now

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As posted by another above, the UAE stands with money, wealth.

They are never going back to a backwater fishing village economy.

ABattJudd said:

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The majority of UAE's shoreline borders the Arabian Gulf, but they do have oil facilities on the Gulf of Oman as well. Shipping from there would allow them to bypass the Straight of Hormuz; I wonder if exiting OPEC will give them more freedom to adjust where they are loading up their oil for export.

I don't know squat about it; just spit-balling.

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FIF Arabs

Just saw that with the UAE leaving, OPEC will only now control about 28% of the global oil trade.

lead said:

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So why did prices already surge?

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The problem has not been resolved, and

The markets think it's not on the verge of being resolved

No Spin Ag said:

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flown-the-coop said:

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No Spin Ag said:

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If this means cheaper prices at the pump, Allah be praised.

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You should make stickers we can put on the gas pumps!

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"Allah did that!"

On it.

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Holla!

But the original contention was that we "…are just finally about to start seeing the actual supply impacts."

Not sure what this means, is the actual supply impact baked in already?

Not sure what actual supply impacts mean? Or what actual supply impacts mean for prices?
Well what impact UAE leaving OPEC will have on the global oil markets obviously remains to be seen. They haven't left yet. Also (and I haven't seen any posters on this thread speaking confidently with direct knowledge) we're not 100% on their current export status due to closure of the SoH.

Long term, I think, it just lessens OPEC grip on global oil supply and by extension OPEC's ability to influence global oil prices. Granted if/when Venezuela gets back up and running OPEC's abilities were already going to be greatly reduced.

The Oil Price we see on TV everyday is a futures contract generally two months out. So today, everyone is showing the June contract. Of course this influences spot pricing at terminals, but so do a myriad of additional factors. It was spot prices and the demand crashes that drove oil into negative territory at the start of COVID. Folks playing the futures markets had oil on tankers heading to US terminals and storage tanks were sitting full. Imagine some guy on Central Park West looking for a place to physically store 2 mmbbls of oil. I mean he can clear off the coffee table, but that still leaves him with 1,999,999 to put somewhere.

Futures spiked at the start on fears of reduced supply. Those concerns have ebbed as markets have responded some, but the longer this drags on it will begin to weigh on the futures again. Obviously, given time, a new S/D balance will establish.

The markets know what's inbound and what isn't (that might normally be) on tankers. The marktes also know how and to what extent our demand has changed

Sims said:

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Kenneth_2003 said:

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One thing to keep in mind... We are just finally about to start seeing the actual supply impacts.

Taking into account transit times for a VLCC from the Persian Gulf to the US, the last pre-conflict departures are arriving now.

---

To my knowledge, we only received 6 - 7 vlccs per month before the conflict and that was primarily to the west coast.

The gap is about 500k barrels per day and that is one of the targets of the SPR releases in addition to generally calming the market.

SPR can theoretically cover the west coast shortfall for 2+ years but since there is more release being done than just the shortfall, they're looking at about 4 months. Current release is scheduled to end mid July and that would leave the SPR at about 243M barrels, from 400+.

The problem is the SPR is primarily in the gulf and most of that is having to be transited to the west coast - that's the primary reason for the jones act waiver.

If the Iran conflict moves past mid June, then you'll either see demand destruction from higher prices ameloriate the price movements...or the prices will move higher and be tolerated. Supply/price issues are for Asia at this point, pricing issues for the US.

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Crude supplies alone to the west coast wont solve their problems. They have both domestic supply issues and a large deficit on refining capacity. They need finished product from SE Asia.

This is going to get rough quickly. Also consider shipping to ports. I wo der of cargo carriers will now sail around due to lack of supply/cost for overland shipping from west coast ports.

rocky the dog said:

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Quote:

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UAE Says Adios To OPEC!

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They speak Spanish over there?

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Spangabic

Or, United Arabic Español

rocky the dog said:

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Quote:

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UAE Says Adios To OPEC!

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They speak Spanish over there?

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No, but they just love to watch the Mexican soap operas for the quality Chica casting.

flakrat said:

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rocky the dog said:

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Quote:

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UAE Says Adios To OPEC!

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They speak Spanish over there?

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No, but they just love to watch the Mexican soap operas for the quality Chica casting.

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They like the Telemundo chics !

fullback44 said:

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flakrat said:

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rocky the dog said:

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Quote:

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UAE Says Adios To OPEC!

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They speak Spanish over there?

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No, but they just love to watch the Mexican soap operas for the quality Chica casting.

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They like the Telemundo chics !

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I was a big fan of Telemundo as a teenager! Didn't learn a lick of Spanish, unfortunately.

seems UAE wanted to do this for awhile. they will be able to take advantage of higher prices without quotas, so, much better deal for them

lead said:

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But the original contention was that we "…are just finally about to start seeing the actual supply impacts."

Not sure what this means, is the actual supply impact baked in already?

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In short NO
Supply impact looks like
not being able to buy Jet Fuel and flights being cancelled
Stations running out of Diesel
The initial run up in price at the pump was forward looking and the gas station knew the next tanker of fuel was going to be more expensive

If this drags on another couple of months the gas station might not be certain if there will be a next tanker delivered

Obviously gas will be available but it will require looking
it seems plausible that small independent gas stations might not be able to source a delivery
& Diesel goes $8 very quickly
Yesterday at my HEB mid grade was up .10 cents from the prior day

Kenneth_2003 said:

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One thing to keep in mind... We are just finally about to start seeing the actual supply impacts.

Taking into account transit times for a VLCC from the Persian Gulf to the US, the last pre-conflict departures are arriving now.

---

all of these vessels that came to the US / GoA instead of the persian gulf to load are going to make the US supply even more scarce and prices even higher.