TEXAS POLL By UT/@TxPolProject

Governor
🟥 Abbott (inc): 44%
🟦 Hinojosa: 38%
🟨 Other: 5%
——
Senate
🟦 Talarico: 42%
🟥 Paxton: 34%
🟨 Other: 5%
—
🟦 Talarico: 40%
🟥 Cornyn: 33%
🟨 Other: 7%
——
Generic Ballot
🟥 GOP: 43%
🟦 DEM: 41%
——
Net Favs
🟢 Hinojosa: (+13)
🟢… pic.twitter.com/N835mVFbYL

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) April 29, 2026

Go figure Rusty, KBTX, and a host of media outlets were circle jerking their unveiled excitement over this yesterday.

Rapier108 said:

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We see this every single election cycle.

Early on they churn out tons of polls showing the Democrats winning if not sweeping Texas. It gives the media talking points and helps the Democrats with fundraising.

As we get closer to election day, we start seeing actual polling which shows the opposite of the early ones.

Then the election happens and the pollsters will claim they were always right because their last few polls got it correct.

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Rapier108 said:

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We see this every single election cycle.

Early on they churn out tons of polls showing the Democrats winning if not sweeping Texas. It gives the media talking points and helps the Democrats with fundraising.

As we get closer to election day, we start seeing actual polling which shows the opposite of the early ones.

Then the election happens and the pollsters will claim they were always right because their last few polls got it correct.

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Reminds me of this -

"J. Ann Selzer's Iowa Poll had previously been lauded as the "gold standard" because of its ability to accurately predict elections and detect activity late in the campaigns that later become apparent in the final election votes."

Any polling organization affiliated in any way with Democrats will skew the results in an attempt to discourage Republicans and energize Democrats. They will flat out misrepresent the numbers and they do it on purpose.
Don't believe this poll. This far out it is meaningless anyway.

TAMU1990 said:

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The internals in this poll show 20%+ as undecided or I haven't thought about it.

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I didn't care enough to dig into it but that's the key.
Talarico is within 1-3% of his peak, he's nothing but the fresh new face to take on the evil Republicans in stalwart Red Texas. . Republicans and middle ground folks are enjoying life, some are following the runoff, the rest will tune in in late September.

This is important too for the "woe is me the midterm sky is falling" crowd. The average mid-term voter isn't paying a lick of attention right now. In September they can campaign on the back half of July forward.

TAMU1990 said:

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The internals in this poll show 20%+ as undecided or I haven't thought about it.

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THIS. The reality is you have a lot of conservatives who are unhappy with the GOP for various reasons but don't know much about the Dems. Essentially the Dems are united but that doesn't mean they are getting Republicans to vote for them and Texas is fundamentally a +14 GOP State. If you think Texas is going to vote for a twink socialist that wants to make our kids Trans and that Jesus loves abortion you can choose to I guess but that won't fly. Talarico isn't even a Beto, at least Beto had some cool factor to him and seemed fun on the surface before he turned into whatever he is now. Talarico is just freaking weird as hell.

Republicans do have to show up though and they do need to unify but I'm not concerned about that happening. They can't completely fall asleep at the wheel.

Ellis Wyatt said:

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SunrayAg said:

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It would help if Cornyn wasn't such a terrible senator, and Paxton wasn't such a terrible person.

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And yet Talarico believes it's ok to mutilate children, among many other perverted things.

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What exactly in my post where I clearly said I would vote for the R, made you think I would support that crap stain?

I pretty clearly stated I would vote for the R, just not a fan of either R option.

What if there is a grift we haven't looked for here: One where pollsters are drinking from the income stream somewhere of all the out of state money that gets flooded into the state by encouraging polls.

Squadron7 said:

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What if there is a grift we haven't looked for here: One where pollsters are drinking from the income stream somewhere of all the out of state money that gets flooded into the state by encouraging polls.

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100% it's a lot of out of state money funding this garbage. Let them waste their money in Texas. Those are dollars they could be spending somewhere else where it might make a difference.

I don't think this is 2026 is the long awaited coming of purple Texas, but both republican senate candidates are pretty unpopular. So it shouldn't be a surprise that the polls are close

Urban Ag said:

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SunrayAg said:

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It would help if Cornyn wasn't such a terrible senator, and Paxton wasn't such a terrible person.

I will vote for the R, but I truly dislike both options.

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Absolutely nailed it. It is beyond frustrating that this is where we are in this state. Cornyn should have been primaried at least in the last cycle and Paxton is a mess.

Either one is likely to simply run a campaign focused 95% on the fact that Talarico is a twerp weirdo that should not be left alone with children. Hope it works.

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That should be more than enough to get the job done here in Texas. Guy literally blasphemes The Bible, believes there are 6 genders, and pushes trans ideology. Very easy guy to run ads against. We really need to have a better primary challenger in 2030 though, or maybe by then Cornyn will just hang it up.

If the Dems were smart they'd put out "polls" that show Paxton drastically underperforms Cornyn. All this shows is that even when you have the deck stacked in your favor, they still show Paxton is completely viable. Major mistake on their part as they're clearly too busy crafting their "Blue Wave" narrative.

They are usually better at playing politics. Oops.

Ag87H2O said:

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Squadron7 said:

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What if there is a grift we haven't looked for here: One where pollsters are drinking from the income stream somewhere of all the out of state money that gets flooded into the state by encouraging polls.

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100% it's a lot of out of state money funding this garbage. Let them waste their money in Texas. Those are dollars they could be spending somewhere else where it might make a difference.

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When Talarico won the primary it was being discussed on The Five and of course the four conservatives were really having fun giving the lone lib, Jessica Tarlov, a ration of sh**. Her response was basically "I know he won't win in Texas but man are we going to make you pay for it".

And she's not wrong. The Beto hangover is real and still here and the GOP is going to counter just about dollar that flows in out of state. The fear of losing a Texas senate seat is more than just that single seat, it would be a national level humiliation for Republicans.

You did not see the disclaimer (probably)

We polled 7 people on a street corner in south Houston and this was the result.

Urban Ag said:

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Ag87H2O said:

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Squadron7 said:

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What if there is a grift we haven't looked for here: One where pollsters are drinking from the income stream somewhere of all the out of state money that gets flooded into the state by encouraging polls.

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100% it's a lot of out of state money funding this garbage. Let them waste their money in Texas. Those are dollars they could be spending somewhere else where it might make a difference.

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When Talarico won the primary it was being discussed on The Five and of course the four conservatives were really having fun giving the lone lib, Jessica Tarlov, a ration of sh**. Her response was basically "I know he won't win in Texas but man are we going to make you pay for it".

And she's not wrong. The Beto hangover is real and still here and the GOP is going to counter just about dollar that flows in out of state. The fear of losing a Texas senate seat is more than just that single seat, it would be a national level humiliation for Republicans.

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Yeah, I wasn't thinking about the down ballot races that might be tilted in favor of the Democrats much like they did when Beto spent a fortune in his run for the Senate which led to heavier than normal Democrat turnout. Lots of terrible judges got elected in Harris County because of his coattails.

Having said that, I don't expect Paxton or Cornyn would take the seat for granted like Cruz did. I imagine whichever one wins the nomination will campaign hard against Talrico, which will hopefully help negate any impact Talarico may have down ballot.

Thing is, as much of a putz as Beto is, he is still relatable in that he is married and has children. He's a husband, a dad, and had a least a small amount of business experience.

By contrast, Talarico is just a do nothing weirdo and he's creepy AF. GOP needs to drop the hammer hard by this summer. Crush him as early as possible and make donors think twice.

James Talarico, too beta, too weird, too creepy for Texas

Ag87H2O said:

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Urban Ag said:

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Ag87H2O said:

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Squadron7 said:

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What if there is a grift we haven't looked for here: One where pollsters are drinking from the income stream somewhere of all the out of state money that gets flooded into the state by encouraging polls.

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100% it's a lot of out of state money funding this garbage. Let them waste their money in Texas. Those are dollars they could be spending somewhere else where it might make a difference.

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When Talarico won the primary it was being discussed on The Five and of course the four conservatives were really having fun giving the lone lib, Jessica Tarlov, a ration of sh**. Her response was basically "I know he won't win in Texas but man are we going to make you pay for it".

And she's not wrong. The Beto hangover is real and still here and the GOP is going to counter just about dollar that flows in out of state. The fear of losing a Texas senate seat is more than just that single seat, it would be a national level humiliation for Republicans.

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Yeah, I wasn't thinking about the down ballot races that might be tilted in favor of the Democrats much like they did when Beto spent a fortune in his run for the Senate which led to heavier than normal Democrat turnout. Lots of terrible judges got elected in Harris County because of his coattails.

Having said that, I don't expect Paxton or Cornyn would take the seat for granted like Cruz did. I imagine whichever one wins the nomination will campaign hard against Talrico, which will hopefully help negate any impact Talarico may have down ballot.

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Harris county is STILL paying the price. Now Ed Emmot's unconditional love for the Astrodome didn't help... But Beto brought Harris County Dora, Black Girl Magic State district Court judges, and wholesale replacement of EVERY major county office head which are elected positions in Texas.

Cornyn ia losing votes by the day with his attack ads on Paxton. No one is fooled. These are out of state financed RINO ads.

Paxton may be a scumbag, but he is an effective scumbag.

Bucketrunner said:

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Cornyn ia losing votes by the day with his attack ads on Paxton. No one is fooled. These are out of state financed RINO ads.

Paxton may be a scumbag, but he is an effective scumbag.

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You mean the same "out of state" financed ads that Wilkes, Dunn, Abbott and Patrick used to primary any republican standing with their constituents against the school voucher scam? You can't have it both ways.

paxton is part of a failed Texas GOP.

25 Billion annual surplus with a 27 Billion Rainy Day fund. We are living in a high tax and spend state at a time where an ungodly amount of revenue is being generated from oil and gas taxes. If you are in oil and gas and own a 3/4 million dollar home check your effective tax rate (then compare it to basically any state thats not Cali or NY and you arent gonna like it)

You may want to speak with the democrats running the Texas House. Paxton didn't do that.

Just because it worked then doesn't mean it will work now.

SunrayAg said:

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It would help if Cornyn wasn't such a terrible senator, and Paxton wasn't such a terrible person.

I will vote for the R, but I truly dislike both options.

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Either one of them (Rs) will win by a good margin. Texas will not vote in a gay dude to be senator, Black people will not overly turn out for a gay white guy and on top of that Crockett got screwed. Hispanics also will not turn out for a gay guy, especially a fake pastor

Trump just won this state by 1.6 million, it is getting more red, just like Florida is.