BigRobSA said:

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5-7 seats to get absolutely nothing good done with.

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Keeping the dems out of power is something good, even if the GOP doesn't get anything else done.

The 2030 census is the dagger.

TAMU1990 said:

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The 2030 census is the dagger.

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If the Dems control the WH, what's to keep them from cheating? Obama moved the census admin to the executive branch.

That's my concern.

Logos Stick said:

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Are the numbers here correct? I did a quick check and it looks correct.

Seems Rs will pick up seats this year regardless.

Redistricting Update For 2026:

Passed:
🔴 TX: +5
🔴 FL: +4
🔴 OH: +1
🔴 NC +1
🔵 CA: +5

Getting appealed:
🔴 MO: +1
🔵 UT: +1
🔵 VA: +4

Called a special session:
🔴 LA: +1-2
🔴 AL: +1-2
🔴 TN: +1

Total:
Appeal maps passes: 🔴 R+5–7
Appeal maps get strike down: 🔴 R+9–11 pic.twitter.com/LUD2dzX7h0

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) May 4, 2026

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Mississippi is redrawing and will add a seat

Right now, if Virginia new map stays in place it is 216-202 Dems with 17 toss ups

If you add 9 seats from Alabama, Louisiana, Florida, Mississippi, Tennessee, south Carolina. (You can add 11 seats total from these states, but I do not think they get to that number, so I put 9 to be safe)

Add 9 and the outlook is 210R vs 207D with 17 toss ups

If Virginia gets overturned it will be 214R to 203D

So in the end Rs will need 4 or 8 toss ups to win. If it is 8, the house will go Dem probably. With gas prices as they are Rs winning 8 or the 17 is just not going to happen or at least I do not see it

Teslag said:

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Z3phyr said:

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Colorado will probably add 1-2 D seats

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They won't until 2028. At which point the GOP will add more in Tennessee, Georgia, and others.

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Nebraska (1) Indiana (2) Kansas (1), Utah (1) South Carolina (1) Georgia none or 2

If Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida redraw and max out in 2026 they cannot add anymore

The complete total will be around 16~18 flips for the Rs, depending on Georgia

You may have an issue with Georgia, if the Dems win the Governor office they will not redraw, which is why Kemp is suck a little B for not doing it now. Dem Gov. candidate is winning in polling

Once the Dem states redraw before 2028 it will be close to a wash, they can add a lot of seats too, people say they are maxed out but that is just not true

If the census is done correctly in 2030 (no illegals counted) (very important an R wins in 2028) than Rs will add around 15 seats due to migration to Red states.

Rex Racer said:

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BigRobSA said:

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5-7 seats to get absolutely nothing good done with.

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Keeping the dems out of power is something good, even if the GOP doesn't get anything else done.

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You'd hope so, but there are McCains and Romneys all over.


Just wish the GOP would use any power to actually make changes in a conservative direction.

Quote:

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If the census is done correctly in 2030 (no illegals counted) (very important an R wins in 2028) than Rs will add around 15 seats due to migration to Red states.

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And the results of the Census compiled and released within a year, so 2031 before 2032 election.

2026NCAggies said:

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Once the Dem states redraw before 2028 it will be close to a wash, they can add a lot of seats too, people say they are maxed out but that is just not true

.

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Where do the Dems have left to add? Genuine question.

2026NCAggies said:

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Teslag said:

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Z3phyr said:

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Colorado will probably add 1-2 D seats

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They won't until 2028. At which point the GOP will add more in Tennessee, Georgia, and others.

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Nebraska (1) Indiana (2) Kansas (1), Utah (1) South Carolina (1) Georgia none or 2

If Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida redraw and max out in 2026 they cannot add anymore

The complete total will be around 16~18 flips for the Rs, depending on Georgia

You may have an issue with Georgia, if the Dems win the Governor office they will not redraw, which is why Kemp is suck a little B for not doing it now. Dem Gov. candidate is winning in polling

Once the Dem states redraw before 2028 it will be close to a wash, they can add a lot of seats too, people say they are maxed out but that is just not true

If the census is done correctly in 2030 (no illegals counted) (very important an R wins in 2028) than Rs will add around 15 seats due to migration to Red states.

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Where are you getting that from?

The only Dems states that have total state control and can redraw at will are the following states:

Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Mexico
Oregon


That is 37 D / 6 R right now.

if they eliminated every R that's a pickup of 6. It won't be a wash.

BigRobSA said:

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Rex Racer said:

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BigRobSA said:

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5-7 seats to get absolutely nothing good done with.

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Keeping the dems out of power is something good, even if the GOP doesn't get anything else done.

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You'd hope so, but there are McCains and Romneys all over.


Just wish the GOP would use any power to actually make changes in a conservative direction.

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I'm with you.

LOYAL AG said:

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2026NCAggies said:

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Once the Dem states redraw before 2028 it will be close to a wash, they can add a lot of seats too, people say they are maxed out but that is just not true

.

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Where do the Dems have left to add? Genuine question.

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NY and California but they will be tough without diluting. Those states are heavily condensed to urban areas.

Under-estimated fact is that NM and AZ alike are trending GOP without the vote fraud due primarily to the shift in hispanic voters.

Hispanic Vote through the years

2018: 🔵 D+40
2020: 🔵 D+27
2022: 🔵 D+21
2024: 🔵 D+9

*2026: 🔵 D+2

*(Economist/YouGov poll | 5/1-5/4) pic.twitter.com/rfCRE8GwFv

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) May 5, 2026

nortex97 said:

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Under-estimated fact is that NM and AZ alike are trending GOP without the vote fraud due primarily to the shift in hispanic voters.

Hispanic Vote through the years

2018: 🔵 D+40
2020: 🔵 D+27
2022: 🔵 D+21
2024: 🔵 D+9

*2026: 🔵 D+2

*(Economist/YouGov poll | 5/1-5/4) pic.twitter.com/rfCRE8GwFv

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) May 5, 2026

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I do not think either Arizona or NM are trending to red. Arizona is definitely still trending blue, due to Cali migration. Their Governor is projected to beat Andy Biggs, who is another lackluster candidate put up by the Arizona GOP. Poll averages have Hobbs winning by 10

Hobbs is a terrible Governor btw

Hispanics might HAVE been trending R but I do not think that is the case anymore. They are a group that you will have to continually pursue and they likely will swing depending on the situation

Nevada is trending Red, the current R governor is favored to win again... But the cheat machine is still alive and that is why there are 2 Dem senators in that state. I watched the last two senate elections there and both Dem candidates won by counting newly found mail in ballots. Hopefully the R Governor can change that

Logos Stick said:

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2026NCAggies said:

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Teslag said:

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Z3phyr said:

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Colorado will probably add 1-2 D seats

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They won't until 2028. At which point the GOP will add more in Tennessee, Georgia, and others.

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Nebraska (1) Indiana (2) Kansas (1), Utah (1) South Carolina (1) Georgia none or 2

If Louisiana, Mississippi, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida redraw and max out in 2026 they cannot add anymore

The complete total will be around 16~18 flips for the Rs, depending on Georgia

You may have an issue with Georgia, if the Dems win the Governor office they will not redraw, which is why Kemp is suck a little B for not doing it now. Dem Gov. candidate is winning in polling

Once the Dem states redraw before 2028 it will be close to a wash, they can add a lot of seats too, people say they are maxed out but that is just not true

If the census is done correctly in 2030 (no illegals counted) (very important an R wins in 2028) than Rs will add around 15 seats due to migration to Red states.

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Where are you getting that from?

The only Dems states that have total state control and can redraw at will are the following states:

Illinois
Maryland
Massachusetts
New Mexico
Oregon


That is 37 D / 6 R right now.

if they eliminated every R that's a pickup of 6. It won't be a wash.

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Virginia will get 4 eventually, might not be 2026 but by 2028 they will.
Cali can add at least 1 to 2 if not more
New York will add more
Maine has one they can terminate
Minnesota? Idk if they are controlled completely by Dems?
Illinois can add a couple

Like Virginia if Dems get complete control of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. They will Gerrymander. Thankfully I think each of those states will stay the same, if not turn more red but you never know.

Michigan will be a fun one to watch this election. John James seems to be polling really really well for Governor and is a fantastic candidate. Mike Rogers is neck and neck in the senate polls and will be going up against a bad candidate

The R governor candidate in Wisconsin is the favorite to win right now

Quote:

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I do not think either Arizona or NM are trending to red. Arizona is definitely still trending blue, due to Cali migration. Their Governor is projected to beat Andy Biggs, who is another lackluster candidate put up by the Arizona GOP. Poll averages have Hobbs winning by 10

Hobbs is a terrible Governor btw

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Until Runbeck is completely shut down, AZ elections will be fraudulent.

AZ still has a 320K GOP voter registration advantage (which has grown since 2020, though not this year). The problem isn't the voters, but the vote counters.

The veto power of Hobbs is effective. AZ is red, by 320k voters over democrats. The Governor, Secretary of St., the AG. both senators and the ballot printer are all blue.

— Knight2dayagain (@natespopve76659) May 5, 2026

The GOP has functionally dominated lawmaking at the state level but have continuously lost at the federal one for many years (partially thanks to the McCain widow/machinery, tbf). It's dysfunctional, at a state party level, at best.

A report by @TheLawmakers confirms Arizona's current Republican management of the state legislature is much, much more partisan than the average state:

Arizonans want the legislature to solve problems, no matter which party the solutions come from. That's not what they're…

— Kevin Volk (@KevinVolkAZ) May 4, 2026

Yes, Hobbs is a horrific and contemptible governor/person, though.

Quote:

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AZ still has a 320K GOP voter registration advantage (which has grown since 2020, though not this year). The problem isn't the voters, but the vote counters.

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320K? That's nothing for Runbeck to overcome in a day or two. Took them ten days in 2020 to wipe out Trump's vote in 2020. Sure they have improved that capability by now.

2026NCAggies said:

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nortex97 said:

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Under-estimated fact is that NM and AZ alike are trending GOP without the vote fraud due primarily to the shift in hispanic voters.

Hispanic Vote through the years

2018: 🔵 D+40
2020: 🔵 D+27
2022: 🔵 D+21
2024: 🔵 D+9

*2026: 🔵 D+2

*(Economist/YouGov poll | 5/1-5/4) pic.twitter.com/rfCRE8GwFv

— OSZ (@OpenSourceZone) May 5, 2026

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I do not think either Arizona or NM are trending to red. Arizona is definitely still trending blue, due to Cali migration. Their Governor is projected to beat Andy Biggs, who is another lackluster candidate put up by the Arizona GOP. Poll averages have Hobbs winning by 10

Hobbs is a terrible Governor btw

Hispanics might HAVE been trending R but I do not think that is the case anymore. They are a group that you will have to continually pursue and they likely will swing depending on the situation

Nevada is trending Red, the current R governor is favored to win again... But the cheat machine is still alive and that is why there are 2 Dem senators in that state. I watched the last two senate elections there and both Dem candidates won by counting newly found mail in ballots. Hopefully the R Governor can change that

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You put a lot of stock in polling

💥BREAKING: South Carolina House Speaker moves to Redistrict!

They can do this IN SPITE OF the Governor!

The House will take up Sine Die Resolution that includes Reapportionment paving the way for a Special Session!

Massive first step!

🚨Keep the pressure on the SENATE!

— Adam Morgan (@RepAdamMorgan) May 5, 2026

I guess Massey caved.

Indiana won't redistrict this year but at least 6 and possibly 7 of the 8 state senator rino's who killed doing so, lost their primary. A 7th was/is clinging to a 3 vote margin and might hang on.

No, they won't.

SD 1 Dan Dernulc - LOST by 53 points
SD 6 Rick Niemeyer - Currently LOSING by 9 points
SD 11 Linda Rogers - LOST by 18 points
SD 19 Travis Holdman - LOST by 23 points
SD 21 James Buck - LOST by 29 points
SD 41 Greg Walker - LOST by 17 points

So far, only two of… https://t.co/epE1wll9f5

— Christian Heiens 🏛 (@ChristianHeiens) May 6, 2026

As one might expect, they're not taking it well.

Tolerance of evil isn’t a Christian virtue either.

The Democratic Party is almost comically evil at this point, and allowing them to obtain political power is abetting evil. https://t.co/dnisS8WOpd

— Christian Heiens 🏛 (@ChristianHeiens) May 6, 2026

Maybe try listening to your constituents if you do ever hold office again, loser.

Replying to myself is tacky but there's zero reason this shouldn't happen at this point.

After tonight’s bloodbath in Indiana, I’d imagine South Carolina Republicans are suddenly a few votes closer to passing a 7R-0D map. https://t.co/04E7CV1UK4

— Erickson (@erickson_68) May 6, 2026

Shane Massey (R) is their senate majority leader who is apparently unmoved to rid America of Clyburn.

Sen. Shane Massey said he has spoken to Trump twice, including once today. He said it was a “very good conversation” & that there was no pressure from the president, but Trump asked him to take a look at redrawing the maps.

Massey told him he would likely not support the effort. pic.twitter.com/hdDppSaiXi

— Anna Wilder (@anna_wilderr) May 5, 2026

He should at least let the senate vote on it, I would think.

House Rules Cmte votes yes, will still need to be approved by the full House:

The House Rules Committee has voted 12-2 to amend the sine die agreement to allow for redistricting after session adjourns next week.

We still don't know what this looks like, or even what the map is.

"I don't have a map," says House Majority Whip Brandon Newton.

— Nick Reynolds (@IAmNickReynolds) May 6, 2026

12-2, wow. Why does Massey say he would need Dem votes to advance it in the senate? 2/3 majority reference? 34 of the 46 state senators are Republicans per DDG?

Chat gpt-driven response:

Quote:

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Short answer: Yes but only if they can meet the ordinarylaw votes and overcome any Senate rules that require a supermajority.
Why: South Carolina congressional and legislative maps are enacted by the General Assembly as statutes (subject to the governor's veto). With the current Republican majorities (34 of 46 in the Senate; GOP control of the House) Republicans can pass redistricting bills without Democratic votes so long as they hold enough GOP votes to:

• Win passage in each chamber by a simple majority (or the chamber's required threshold for that bill), and
• Either secure the governor's signature or override a gubernatorial veto (overrides require twothirds ofeach chamber).

Practical constraints that may require Democrats' support

• Veto override: If the governor refuses to sign, Republicans need twothirds in both chambers to override.That is a higher bar and may require some Democrats.
• Any chamber rule requiring a supermajority or special procedure (e.g., amending a sine die resolution tocall a special session) the House has indicated amending such resolutions may need twothirds.

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He sure sounds like he is looking after his Democrat donor base, imho (though I don't track SC laws/procedures).

As furious redistricting battles continue, we reveal Republican plan to add 14 seats following last week's Supreme Court ruling https://t.co/HkFEPzBa0z pic.twitter.com/GXb66qesSq

— New York Post (@nypost) May 7, 2026

Sign me up.

nortex97 said:

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As furious redistricting battles continue, we reveal Republican plan to add 14 seats following last week's Supreme Court ruling https://t.co/HkFEPzBa0z pic.twitter.com/GXb66qesSq

— New York Post (@nypost) May 7, 2026

Sign me up.

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Kemp is blocking redistricting in Georgia for 2026 and a Dem might win the governors race. If that happens, Georgia will not redistrict for awhile, might be 8 years

Kemp is such a loser, and little B

Correct on Kemp but I think they will be forced to change by 2028. Racist maps no longer will fly.

2026 and 2028 are going to be desperation level, potential existential events, for Democrats.

Between the Census accurately reflecting population shifts and the end of racial gerrymandering that guaranteed them seats in overwhelmingly red states, the Dems will lose maybe as many…

— Shipwreckedcrew (@shipwreckedcrew) May 7, 2026

I also dont think the democrat will win for governor (nor senator). Just my two cents.

There is a lot to do cleaning up the Republican party.

Republicans have to win every election in the future.
Democrats only need to win one.

They acted like such fools in Tennessee. I get being upset when your side loses but that was disgusting uncivilized behavior

JWinTX said:

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Ag1188 said:

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4 said:

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I'm just happy to see the Rs FINALLY fighting back instead of always "taking the high road" and allowing the Ds to walk all over them.

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Lmao. Wut? It was republicans who started all this. R's added like 10 seats, and only then did Dems ever do anything. I get Viktor Orban is Trump's role model but good lord. Lol

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This is dumb...really, really dumb

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What's really dumb is that Republicans let Democrats get away with this in the Northeast and California and never made an issue of it. Hard not to come to the realization that the Republican party was just controlled opposition.

Tennessee completed their new map today in a special session (already now signed by governor, pending pathetic lefty lawfare challenge which will fail yet again). Democrats reacted as one would expect to a map that very likely adds a black US Representative to the state.

🚨 LMFAO, THIS IS GOLD! To gloat on leftists, Tennessee Rep. Todd Warner wore his own TRUMP FLAG at the State Capitol while Democrats fumed that the 9R-0D redistricting map was passing

A psycho can be heard yelling: "RACIST! RACIST!" 🤣

Tennessee did NOT disappoint today! 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/kmU4wrxZVG

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) May 7, 2026

There's a lot of profanity/screeching/profanity on various videos out there of the voting (I think one Democrat state rep got in a shoving/cursing match with a state trooper). Hopefully this one is clean:

🚨 BREAKING: Tennessee Governor Bill Lee has OFFICIALLY signed the state's new Congressional maps into LAW

LET'S GO!!! 🔥

Tennessee will soon have NINE Republicans and ZERO Democrats in Congress

All the Democrat screeching today did NOT work! 🤣 pic.twitter.com/dEGH2fo1D3

— Nick Sortor (@nicksortor) May 7, 2026

I am glad to see Republicans fight back against the Democrats in the redistricting warfare. I hope we retain control of at least the Senate in November.