Aggie Spirit said:

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Good number but ADP is even less reliable than BLS.

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I trust ADP way more than BLS. They use harder data they directly collect. BLS data is way manipulated and interpreted. Since Jan 2025, the revision to the original number was lower all but one month. I don't have the data for the last couple of years under Biden but I think it was similar. Give a great headline number that everyone focuses on and then revise it lower which no one hears about.

Any good news with regards to economy is good news for midterms

I do not see Rs losing neither the house or senate if gas prices go down to $3 a gallon

2026NCAggies said:

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Any good news with regards to economy is good news for midterms

I do not see Rs losing neither the house or senate if gas prices go down to $3 a gallon

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Yes, and Iran knows that. That's why I simply don't see them making a deal. The Dems are pro-Iran and Iran knows that.

Put out whatever numbers you want to keep the game of musical chairs going just a little longer, normal every day Americans are not buying it.

FWTXAg said:

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Put out whatever numbers you want to keep the game of musical chairs going just a little longer, normal every day Americans are relying on it.

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I think the unwind of the shell game that's been played for years will be painful to people in a way they don't even realize. The correction would be the right thing for long term stability. Lots of comfort and financial mobility is built on something many don't want to admit benefits them directly.

Asset price inflation has been very good to homeowners and 401(k) holders. Sustained deficit spending shows up as someone's income. Low rates rescued a lot of corporate balance sheets from implosion and subsequent bankruptcy/layoffs. Plenty of people who'd describe themselves as fiscally conservative have net worths that depend on the very dynamics they critique. The tension is real.

Sims said:

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FWTXAg said:

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Put out whatever numbers you want to keep the game of musical chairs going just a little longer, normal every day Americans are relying on it.

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I think the unwind of the shell game that's been played for years will be painful to people in a way they don't even realize. The correction would be the right thing for long term stability. Lots of comfort and financial mobility is built on something many don't want to admit benefits them directly.

Asset price inflation has been very good to homeowners and 401(k) holders. Sustained deficit spending shows up as someone's income. Low rates rescued a lot of corporate balance sheets from implosion and subsequent bankruptcy/layoffs. Plenty of people who'd describe themselves as fiscally conservative have net worths that depend on the very dynamics they critique. The tension is real.

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100% and it's not reality.

It's going to be very rough to watch unfold. Someone has got to pay the piper, and those of us 40 and under are going to be the ones to have to do it.

Sims said:

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FWTXAg said:

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Put out whatever numbers you want to keep the game of musical chairs going just a little longer, normal every day Americans are relying on it.

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I think the unwind of the shell game that's been played for years will be painful to people in a way they don't even realize. The correction would be the right thing for long term stability. Lots of comfort and financial mobility is built on something many don't want to admit benefits them directly.

Asset price inflation has been very good to homeowners and 401(k) holders. Sustained deficit spending shows up as someone's income. Low rates rescued a lot of corporate balance sheets from implosion and subsequent bankruptcy/layoffs. Plenty of people who'd describe themselves as fiscally conservative have net worths that depend on the very dynamics they critique. The tension is real.

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K-shaped economy. ZIRP made asset holders richer than we could ever have imagined, and now we're staring right in the face at negative growth and long-term higher inflation. Social Security will become insolvent within 10 years, and interest on the debt is the third-largest item in the federal budget (after SS and Medicare/Medicaid).

Soon there will be fewer Americans under 17 than older than 65. There is may be no replacing the labor needed to afford the social programs voted on decades ago. Maybe productivity increases can be found. A declining labor participation rate, along with an aging population, is bad news.

infinity ag said:

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LMCane said:

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great news

economy humming along

54 record highs on Wall Street since Trump took office!

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Stock market great
Job market in the tank

I make most of my money in stock market so I am good (I am up big YTD). But what about most people? They are unemployed. Even in my current job, my salary is way down from what is used to be.

No, I won't do HVAC, plumber, electrician jobs. I'd rather retire.

Trump needs to work fast to improve the job market, I don't trust all these feel-good news articles.

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Dividend income taxed at 30% And...... If you are a high-income earner, add another 3.8% tax on that income.

Wouldnt count all that just yet

Agfencer98 said:

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... but if you are halfway competent, we are hiring.

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Another list I made! Hell yes!

LMCane said:

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great news

economy humming along

54 record highs on Wall Street since Trump took office!

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No, the sky is falling!

Are payrolls up because of inflation?

ErnestEndeavor said:

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ADP is a payroll processing company. They release data on estimated nationwide private payroll gains/losses based on their own data. This data is very important because it is not based on any sort of potentially fudged government numbers.

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/06/private-payrolls-rose-by-109000-in-april-topping-expectations-adp-says.html

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As has been the case, job creation was concentrated in a few key categories, an indication that while hiring overall is solid, the benefits are not being spread out over sectors.

Education and health services again dominated, adding 61,000 new hires. Trade, transportation and utilities saw a gain of 25,000. Construction, another consistent leader in recent months, rose by 10,000, while financial activities contributed 9,000.

The Trump administration's tariff efforts to reshore jobs through tariffs also showed only modest gains, with the sector adding 2,000. Leisure and hospitality and information services each saw growth of 4,000. Professional and business services reported a loss of 8,000.

From a size standpoint, companies with fewer than 50 employees added 65,000 while those with 500 or more workers added 42,000.

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So teachers and nurses, etc. continue to be the bulk of our economy. Same as it has been for some time.