techno-ag said:

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hph6203 said:

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Between 2020 and 2025 China added 3000 TWh of energy generation to their grid. More than the expected U.S. demand for EVs and data centers. For the "The U.S. can't build that much energy production" why do you think China can and we can't?

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I think most of that Chicom power plant build out is coal. That's still a no-go over here.

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Coal wasn't absent in the expansion, but solar/wind/nuke/hydro made up the majority of additional production. In the U.S. it would be solar/natural gas dominating if we get our **** together.

Buck Turgidson said:

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hph6203 said:

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Between 2020 and 2025 China added 3000 TWh of energy generation to their grid. More than the expected U.S. demand for EVs and data centers. For the "The U.S. can't build that much energy production" why do you think China can and we can't?

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1. Labor with no rights
2. Cutting lots of corners on quality
3. Suffocating US Bureaucracy that is aimed at preventing anything constructive from happening in a reasonable time frame.

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One and two are how China did it, not reasons why the U.S. can't. Three is an explanation of why some locales won't, but not a reason why it won't occur. If Texas says it can be built behind the meter, guess where they're going to go? What's great about America. Texas can be smart, California can be dumb, and the consequences play out.

hph6203 said:

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techno-ag said:

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hph6203 said:

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Between 2020 and 2025 China added 3000 TWh of energy generation to their grid. More than the expected U.S. demand for EVs and data centers. For the "The U.S. can't build that much energy production" why do you think China can and we can't?

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I think most of that Chicom power plant build out is coal. That's still a no-go over here.

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Coal wasn't absent in the expansion, but solar/wind/nuke/hydro made up the majority of additional production. In the U.S. it would be solar/natural gas dominating if we get our together.

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About two new coal power plants per week according to "recent" estimates.

https://www.npr.org/2023/03/02/1160441919/china-is-building-six-times-more-new-coal-plants-than-other-countries-report-fin

MT got an interesting tour of the facility designing this, and the more interesting stuff to me is just the modular construction plan for this, which is more 'Tesla-like' vs. the fairly horrific Lightning, which as I recall had batteries sort of split up all over underneath a 'normal' Truck chassis (and attendant wiring/cooling etc).

I won't predict success for them at all but going for a 'cheap' pickup by a US2.1 mfg I like to see, even if it is battery powered (long live the Ranchero nameplate!). Personally, I still think solid state would be needed for the 'prime time' US market long term, but I don't want to debate folks who disagree at this point. Toyota says they are moving toward a mass production model in the 2028-2030 timeline for that, fwiw (and I think they are first on this but I really profess not to follow/know for sure).

I think an EV truck for urban cowboys is worthwhile.

You realize I said coal was part of the expansion, but the majority came from other sources? That coal capacity was added in 2025, but total output fell. Their coal power is being deployed at underutilized levels.

1800 TWh in incremental add from non-fossil fuel sources, 1200 TWh from fossil fuels. U.S. expansion would be from sources other than coal. Primarily gas and solar.

hph6203 said:

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You realize I said coal was part of the expansion, but the majority came from other sources? That coal capacity was added in 2025, but total output fell. Their coal power is being deployed at underutilized levels.

1800 TWh in incremental add from non-fossil fuel sources, 1200 TWh from fossil fuels. U.S. expansion would be from sources other than coal. Primarily gas and solar.

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Because of layoffs, all of the mining is done bitumen.

Toyota has been 2-3 years away for 15 years. What is it that you think a solid state battery provides at a wildly higher price that an LFP battery doesn't provide?

LFP's have improved immensely in the last 5 years. Improved pack level density allowing for >300 mile range, improved charging performance reducing charge times by 90%, improved cold temperature performance/charge rates, and improved safety. Solid state would undoubtedly result in incremental reductions in fires, but EVs already do that compared to ICE and LFP batteries are much safer than the NCM batteries that were originally put into the Model S/X 10
Years ago.

Dendrite formation is still an issue imho. I just prefer solid state/less active cooling and that real-life applications show this is controlled to not be an issue. My application as a 50+ year old is to buy a vehicle and know I won't face 'end of life' battery replacement costs in a 20 year cycle, to consider it, or a surprise 'check battery' light somewhere along the way.

But a whole lot of folks where I live I realize have very different use cases. FSD (or cybertaxi) I am hopeful about for my mother, whom I am concerned should probably stop driving after another 5 or so years. Latter would alleviate home charging/battery/safety concerns if service works out locally. I think it would be great if retirement communities transition to 'no garages' over time (a possible political/social impact).

Just think you'd end up paying a 10x premium today to prevent a future low probability event. CATL's fast charging battery claims 90% retention after 1000 cycles or ~300,000 miles. Not gonna try to argue you out of that position for a personal purchase, just don't think it's necessary for EV adoption broadly.

As far as I'm concerned the battery technology today is good enough (though not yet proliferated to the U.S. market due to trade restrictions). The charge rates are fast enough. The range is long enough. The reliability is stable enough. Adoption is limited by consumer perception (these threads are overwhelmed with 10 year old realities but present day inaccuracies) and public charging availability.

Not gonna bump the other thread about EV sales, but

$TSLA 🇰🇷
BREAKING : Tesla Korea once again renewed its highest monthly sales ever, selling 13,190 vehicles in April. ...That's a crazy number.

The Model Y sold 10,086 units. The Model 3 sold 2,596 units.

Tesla grew 1,050% year-over-year in South Korea.

[Tesla Sales in Korea… pic.twitter.com/DNMZ7z3Pmg

— Tsla Chan (@Tslachan) May 7, 2026

Tesla sales in Europe are definitely seeing a BIG comeback. This is the best April sales ever in Germany. https://t.co/EOXsTLaUJo

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) May 7, 2026

Tesla China-made EV sales jumped 36% (YoY) in April to 79,478 units, the company's best April sales ever. pic.twitter.com/RBYXDNg6UB

— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) May 7, 2026

Dont expect it to be environmentally friendly either.