CA about to shake? June 2026 earthquake study

5,932 Views | 73 Replies | Last: 9 days ago by boulderaggie
Sid Farkas
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AlaskanAg99 said:

Sid Farkas said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

The big issue isnt shaking for a home.
Its loss of power and water service. Followed by an uncontained fire that would spread rapidly esp if having multiple origination points and the inability to contain it in an urban/suburban environment.

Those things can be managed pretty easy here in coastal socal (and much of calif). You don't need whole home electricity to protect yourself from the environment (b/c moderate weather)...I keep a month's worth of food and water and have small scale solar/battery back up for essentials...and ammo...lots and lots of ammo. tbh, breakdown of social order in urban areas is the biggest threat....again tho, damage will almost for sure be highly localized around the epicenter.


i used to work for San Diego County government and was on disaster preparedness teams.

None of that matters when everything is burned to the ground. And if bridges are damaged and destroyed your ability to run is greatly reduced.


That sounds like a situation far worse than an earthquake. Like a nuke or something. If that happens, I'll just hunker down and ride it as far as I can.

ETA: a hurricane and multi-day rain bomb in houston is likely worse on the city as a whole compared to an earthquake in LA
AgFan1974
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Tree Hugger said:

I thought it was interesting when were were buying our house in Eugene, OR in 2021 that we had to have the sellers add "earthquake straps" to the electric water heater to bring it up to code for the sale.

Then I learned about the whole "Cascadia Subsidence Zone" thing.

We sold the house last year and moved back to TX and the people we sold it to were adamant that the house (built in 1957) was earthquake compliant. Luckily we didn't have to do any extra work since the water heater straps were the only things required by code.

Not as interesting as replacing Country Fair with Houston Livestock Show and Rodeo.
AgFan1974
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Sid Farkas said:

YouBet said:

Sid Farkas said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

The big issue isnt shaking for a home.
Its loss of power and water service. Followed by an uncontained fire that would spread rapidly esp if having multiple origination points and the inability to contain it in an urban/suburban environment.

Those things can be managed pretty easy here in coastal socal (and much of calif). You don't need whole home electricity to protect yourself from the environment (b/c moderate weather)...I keep a month's worth of food and water and have small scale solar/battery back up for essentials...and ammo...lots and lots of ammo. tbh, breakdown of social order in urban areas is the biggest threat....again tho, damage will almost for sure be highly localized around the epicenter.


Where you are this is absolute the biggest threat. You need to have a side deal with Roof Koreans.

coincidentally, I live in one of the biggest Korean immigrant areas (after Koreatown itself). Every I'm at Turner's (the gun store), I'm surrounded by dozens of these smart guys exercising their 2nd amendment rights. The Yutes better watch out if they think my town is easy pickins'

Nothing like the smell of kimchi and gunpowder in the morning.
Shooter McGavin
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Tea Party said:

CanyonAg77 said:

This is seismic news

Really ground breaking


I don't know, but seems kind of shifty
Sharpshooter
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AlaskanAg99 said:

Sid Farkas said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

The big issue isnt shaking for a home.
Its loss of power and water service. Followed by an uncontained fire that would spread rapidly esp if having multiple origination points and the inability to contain it in an urban/suburban environment.

Those things can be managed pretty easy here in coastal socal (and much of calif). You don't need whole home electricity to protect yourself from the environment (b/c moderate weather)...I keep a month's worth of food and water and have small scale solar/battery back up for essentials...and ammo...lots and lots of ammo. tbh, breakdown of social order in urban areas is the biggest threat....again tho, damage will almost for sure be highly localized around the epicenter.


i used to work for San Diego County government and was on disaster preparedness teams.

None of that matters when everything is burned to the ground. And if bridges are damaged and destroyed your ability to run is greatly reduced.

Get a horse and a couple scabbards. Oh, and a mule for all the ammo.
IIIHorn
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Sid Farkas said:

AlaskanAg99 said:

The big issue isnt shaking for a home.
Its loss of power and water service. Followed by an uncontained fire that would spread rapidly esp if having multiple origination points and the inability to contain it in an urban/suburban environment.

Those things can be managed pretty easy here in coastal socal (and much of calif). You don't need whole home electricity to protect yourself from the environment (b/c moderate weather)...I keep a month's worth of food and water and have small scale solar/battery back up for essentials...and ammo...lots and lots of ammo. tbh, breakdown of social order in urban areas is the biggest threat....again tho, damage will almost for sure be highly localized around the epicenter.

You forgot Quaker Oats.
MelvinUdall
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YouBet said:

Over_ed said:

ts5641 said:

PascalsWager said:

Insurance is either prohibitively expensive or not offered at all.

The good news is that just the plot of land where one could build a ~1500sqft house costs more of $3mill where we will (and for almost anywhere around it). So even without federal help, people can just sell and move.

But this will be tougher for LA, and Riverside, and San Bernardino counties which are cheaper and where the poor people live in California.

Insurance is the biggest scam on earth besides anything the dems do.

I understand your point, but will disagree. There is a cost associated with reducing your risk - insurance premium. On average everyone has to lose, because otherwise insurance companies would fold. If the premium is more than you want to pay - just don't buy insurance.


Arguable. Did you happen to see thread posted a couple of weeks ago about insurance payouts? (I think I even posted it).

Insurance companies are now only paying out about half of claims. My brother's house flooded. Insurance company only wanted to pay $20k for $140k in damage. After about 15 months of fighting and arbitration they agreed to pay $100k.


And this is why government gets involved when it doesn't need to be…most insurance policies, while having legal lingo, are pretty cut and dry on what is covered…good insurance should be even more so…carriers just invite more government interference when carriers choose not cover damage that is spelled out.
Mega Lops
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Here in this hopeless f'ing hole we call L.A.
The only way to fix it is to flush it all away.
Any f'ing time. Any f'ing day.
Learn to swim, see you down in Arizona Bay.

Squadron7
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The good news is that it won't damage much High Speed Rail track at all.
Ag with kids
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Rockdoc said:

Sid Farkas said:

Rockdoc said:

Just curious, how expensive is that kind of insurance coverage on a relative basis?

~$2500/yr with a 15% deductible. I live in an average, single story 1500 sf home built in 1969 in an unremarkable close-in suburb to LA.

Thanks. That's a big chunk (maybe not for California but it would be for Texas)

It's less than my flood insurance here on N Padre Island.
You can turn off signatures, btw
BkYdPitmaster
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It'll be a major blow. Especially in SF, according to the Rectum Scale.
Backyard Pitmaster
YouBet
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Ag with kids said:

Rockdoc said:

Sid Farkas said:

Rockdoc said:

Just curious, how expensive is that kind of insurance coverage on a relative basis?

~$2500/yr with a 15% deductible. I live in an average, single story 1500 sf home built in 1969 in an unremarkable close-in suburb to LA.

Thanks. That's a big chunk (maybe not for California but it would be for Texas)

It's less than my flood insurance here on N Padre Island.


Way less than flood we had as well.
Moon Shadow
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The true answer to "who's at gault?"
San Andreas!!!
rausr
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AG


California tumbles into the sea
That'll be the day I go
Back to Annandale
Biz Ag
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Ooooooooooh

Rock me, San Andreas!



41 years ago today.

Really makes you think.

And if you don't like my pun, it's not my fault.
TAMU1990
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You shook me all night long
Fatboy Thaddeus
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Mythos is finding a way to break free
txags92
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Sid Farkas said:

Rockdoc said:

Just curious, how expensive is that kind of insurance coverage on a relative basis?

~$2500/yr with a 15% deductible. I live in an average, single story 1500 sf home built in 1969 in an unremarkable close-in suburb to LA.

So a $750,000 home then?
5Amp
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I miss those MOTEMS regulated petroleum loading dock.
IIIHorn
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Who's on strike?
Wildmen03
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If there's a giant earthquake in California, the residents will just Katrina themselves over into Red country.

No thanks.
sam callahan
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A trillion in damages.

1/2 trillion in permitting fees to rebuild.

3 trillion in lost time waiting for permits to be approved.

TyHolden
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sam callahan said:

A trillion in damages.

1/2 trillion in permitting fees to rebuild.

3 trillion in lost time waiting for permits to be approved.



3 Elons…
I hope I did not offend anybody with this post. If I did, please come see me at my address in my profile so we can talk.
CanyonAg77
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sam callahan said:

A trillion in damages.

1/2 trillion in permitting fees to rebuild.

3 trillion in lost time waiting for permits to be approved.




5 trillion in graft and kickbacks to politicians
CanyonAg77
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New Madrid, Missouri, says 'hold my beer'.

Next time that one lets go, the damage will make California look like a minor inconvenience

https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/new-madrid-seismic-zone

Quote:

In the winter of 1811 and 1812, the New Madrid seismic zone generated a sequence of earthquakes that lasted for several months and included three very large earthquakes estimated to be between magnitude 7 and 8.

The three largest 1811-1812 earthquakes destroyed several settlements along the Mississippi River, caused minor structural damage as far away as Cincinnati, Ohio, and St. Louis, Missouri, and were felt as far away as Hartford, Connecticut, Charleston, South Carolina, and New Orleans, Louisiana.

In the New Madrid region, the earthquakes dramatically affected the landscape. They caused bank failures along the Mississippi River, landslides along Chickasaw Bluffs in Kentucky and Tennessee, and uplift and subsidence of large tracts of land in the Mississippi River floodplain. One such uplift related to faulting near New Madrid, Missouri, temporarily forced the Mississippi River to flow backwards.

In addition, the earthquakes liquefied subsurface sediment over a large area and at great distances resulting in ground fissuring and violent venting of water and sediment. One account of this phenomena stated that the Pemiscot Bayou "blew up for a distance of nearly fifty miles."

Quote:

we would estimate a 25-40% chance of a magnitude 6.0 and greater earthquake in the next 50 years and about a 7-10% probability of a repeat of the 1811-1812 earthquakes in the same time period.


infinity ag
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On Oct 25, 2022, I was on a video call with some coworkers from the Bay Area. Midway through our call, one Bay Area coworker started hollering in fear that his apartment was shaking and screaming like he was about to die. Then his video went dead. Then we found out later that there was an earthquake.

5.1 on the Richter

https://geovera.com/2022/10/25/5-1-magnitude-earthquake-strikes-san-jose-ca/
Quote:

Homeowners in San Jose, California, are shaken after the magnitude-5.1 earthquake.
The Bay Area was rattled by a magnitude-5.1 earthquake that struck east of San Jose on Tuesday, October 25, 2022, at 11:42 AM Pacific Time and was felt across the region.
Residents reported strong shaking felt in the area of the epicenter. Based on the data, the earthquake was also felt in Berkeley, East Foothills, Morgan Hills, Santa Cruz, San Jose, and San Francisco.

CanyonAg77
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Quote:

5.1 on the Richter


I survived a 4.2 near Amarillo.
Gigem314
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DG-Ag said:

96AgGrad said:

I wouldn't worry in the slightest Angelenos. Karen Bass has this mother handled.

Check her vacation schedule and plan accordingly.
bonfarr
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IIIHorn said:

Who's at fault?


Global warming obviously. Some will blame cow farts..
txags92
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infinity ag said:

On Oct 25, 2022, I was on a video call with some coworkers from the Bay Area. Midway through our call, one Bay Area coworker started hollering in fear that his apartment was shaking and screaming like he was about to die. Then his video went dead. Then we found out later that there was an earthquake.

5.1 on the Richter

https://geovera.com/2022/10/25/5-1-magnitude-earthquake-strikes-san-jose-ca/
Quote:

Homeowners in San Jose, California, are shaken after the magnitude-5.1 earthquake.
The Bay Area was rattled by a magnitude-5.1 earthquake that struck east of San Jose on Tuesday, October 25, 2022, at 11:42 AM Pacific Time and was felt across the region.
Residents reported strong shaking felt in the area of the epicenter. Based on the data, the earthquake was also felt in Berkeley, East Foothills, Morgan Hills, Santa Cruz, San Jose, and San Francisco.



5.1 is no joke if you are near the epicenter. We were in Anchorage for a 5.4 centered over by Valdez when I was a kid, and the p wave hitting sounded like a car slamming into the front of the house. Then a few seconds later the shaking started and lasted probably 20-30 seconds. As a kid from Texas, it was a whole new experience.
Biz Ag
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My wife & I took our son to Disneyland back in June, 2012. We were sitting outside a cafe eating dinner when the ground below us rolled slightly. My wife asked "What was that?" Probably a mild earthquake I replied.

Sure enough on the news that night a 4.1 quake hit with the epicenter near Anaheim.

Magnitude 4.1 earthquake shakes Southern California
fullback44
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Logos Stick said:

Tea Party said:

CanyonAg77 said:

This is seismic news

Really ground breaking


Shook me to the core.


Sends tremors down my spine
Burpelson
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What Insurance company is going to write that policy for the remaining 90% of Californians knowing they will have to cover that loss given that information?
txags92
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Biz Ag said:

My wife & I took our son to Disneyland back in June, 2012. We were sitting outside a cafe eating dinner when the ground below us rolled slightly. My wife asked "What was that?" Probably a mild earthquake I replied.

Sure enough on the news that night a 4.1 quake hit with the epicenter near Anaheim.

Magnitude 4.1 earthquake shakes Southern California

I was staying in a cabin in 2020 out between Creede and Lake City, Colorado. We were eating breakfast when the pans and skillets hanging on the wall rattled briefly. I looked later that day and it was a 4.something magnitude down near Antonito. Made me a little sketched out standing right on the edge of the overlooks at the Black Canyon of the Gunnison the next day and looking down along the sheer walls to the river below.
CanyonAg77
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Funny you said that about the car. When the 4,2 hit near Amarillo, that was my first thought, that someone had hit the house.
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